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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I think superdave's post is mostly excellent, and I agree with much of the detailed argument presented. I've excerpted some points to add some considerations, most of which suggest things are a little less certain than superdave asserts.

    Despite what follows below, I lean solidly [perhaps oxymoronic, or mono-moronic] in the direction of superdave's [1]. I'll guess Mason does leave, and should leave.

    Probably. But.

    [2] IMO, Mason's footwork is a noticeable weakness. Have scouts noticed this, too? Am I mistaken that this is a weakness?

    [3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.

    [4] Roster similarity, yes, but with one certain big exception, and a second possible. (a) Miles leaves, and were Mason to return, he'd be the main, main big. [If Mason leaves, Marshall will have to play maybe 15-18 mpg; if Mason returns, that goes down to 10-12 mpg for Marshall.] And (b) if Austin leaves, Mason - one would hope - would emerge to join Seth as a go-to guy.

    Which leads to [5], which I think is an unnecessary straw-man in superdave's otherwise very well-argued presentation. Even discounting the extra-unnecessay "more than," I'm skeptical that most Mason-should-return posters think he'd have [6] a 20/10 season. Yes, that would move his draft stock way up. But more reasonably we might hope - and if he decides to return, Mason must be thinking - he could have a 15/11 season. That, too, would surely move him up somewhat in the draft.

    One final issue: Mason needs to play well the rest of this season, or he risks being a borderline 1st-rounder, and therefore risks dropping to the second round. Right? Seems right....

    Although I think superdave has downplayed or neglected a couple of considerations, I find the argument otherwise sound and persuasive, and so would guess that, having improved substantially, he [superdave?? No, Mason....] will leave with K's, and EK posters', blessing.
    A couple of general questions in response -

    Would Mason be a better basketball player on May 1, 2013 by playing his senior season at Duke or his rookie season mostly sitting the bench for an NBA team? This includes working on footwork, developing a jumper and a drop-step.

    Does Austin's decision factor into what Mason does? (not really sure why it would;also Sulaimon will play an Austin-type role next year)

    Would another 12-10 season hurt Mason? Would a 13-11 or 15-11 season improve Mason's draft status into the teens?

    Also, some very knowledgeable posters stated at the beginning of the season the coaching staff expects both Mason and Austin to go pro. Has anything over the course of the season changed that view?

    I think there's a great argument that Mason can improve more on an NBA bench practicing against better big men, with no restrictions on practice that you have in college, than spending a 4th year in the Duke system running the same plays. He's gotten pretty good at what Duke does, but I do think he's good enough at it to suggest it could be time to learn a new system.

    If you tried to predict what Mason's senior season would look like, I think the best way to get a consensus would be to use a range. I'd argue 12.5 to 15.0 points and 10-12 rebounds. Even at the high end of what is likely - a 15 and 12 season - Mason probably would not move much higher than 20th in the draft. He's a pretty well-known commodity at this point.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    [3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.
    A fair point - but who's to say he won't improve that footwork as an NBA rookie and get paid for it? Sometimes I think we make the assumption that a player will improve more in college than he will as a pro, and I don't think it's accurate in a lot of cases. There's something to be said for playing and practicing against the world's best basketball players (and also: the Washington Wizards) day in and day out.

    Might spending that year in college and demonstrating improved footwork translate into improved draft position (and therefore a better contract)? Possible. Tough to say - it's definitely a decision that comes with a lot of risk.

    Ultimately no one can really evaluate the emotional side of it (which is certainly valid) except Mason himself. If he wants to be at Duke for another year, I'm sure we'd all welcome him back.

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    Even at the high end of what is likely - a 15 and 12 season - Mason probably would not move much higher than 20th in the draft. He's a pretty well-known commodity at this point.
    Good responses. I repeat that I don't know the NBA. Which probably explains my slight surprise at this particular point.

    I agree that 15/12 is high end, esp on the rbds. Strikes me that to reach this high end, Mason would be a more polished player, an improved player, and more than marginally so. If it would require noticeable improvement to reach this high end, and if he reached it, he still would no way get to, say, 13-15 in draft?

    Not arguing, as, again, I just don't follow draft, NBA, etc.

  4. #44
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    Mason and the NBA

    Mason could help his draft position by developing a midrange shot. But with his free throw shooting woes, I don't know if he can. A bank shot would probably be his best shot because it doesn't take as much finese. Mason has tremendous ability but has yet to reach the elite level of play required for a lottery pick. Do the NBA guys go on potential? I don't know. GoDuke!

  5. #45
    I have a gut feeling that he's gone. Same type I had about Kyrie and Gerald (I'm a pessimist). It's better to just expect them to leave and be pleasantly surprised if they stay. That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.

    It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.

  6. #46
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dkball View Post
    I really think the NBA and NCAA should do the following... Thoughts?
    Where would all of this money come from? The schools themselves? Some pool of money that the NCAA gets from TV contracts? The NCAA has a lot of money but shelling out a million bucks is a tall order. They're not really going to make any more money because an elite player comes back; March Madness is as popular as ever even with all of the early departures. And would it be fair for the NCAA to constantly be giving money to players from, say, Kentucky, while smaller schools never receive a piece of that pie?

    As an alternative, I would propose a system where a player can get drafted and then still return to school. The team that drafts him will retain his rights when he does come out, and he'll still get paid according to that draft position. This way he has the security of knowing his place is set, but he can still come back and improve his game, get his degree, etc. I know the NCAA would never approve this because you'd essentially have a professional athlete playing for a college, but if he doesn't receive any money then in theory this could work.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by DukieInBrasil View Post
    I'm not sure why you would assume that Mason won't develop (at least) one more solid offensive move during the off-season, since that is exactly what he did from last year to this year... i think there could be a significant amount of improvement in MP2s game from this year to next. If he shows that and the draft situation remains crowded in '12 and open in '13, there could be ample benefit by him staying, should he choose to.
    I absolutely think he can improve, my question is whether he will improve ENOUGH to justify staying. And the skills he'll need to develop in order to play as an NBA 4 - namely jump shooting and defending farther away from the basket - are not things I think he'll be able to develop much at Duke. It's nobody's fault, it's just the system we run and the roster we have. Good point about Marshall playing the 5 though; if they're both on the floor then Mason would in fact get to play his more natural 4 position.

    I definitely support him either way, as I think we all do. And I would be ecstatic if he came back. I would choose him coming back over us getting any of the recruits that we're still waiting on (not saying that they're exclusive, just saying that's how much I think our team needs him). But what I'm discussing in this thread is what I think would be best for him regarding his draft status and NBA potential.

    Don't forget that he has the option of entering his name and then pulling out. It's almost guaranteed that he's going to do this as it costs him nothing and it will at the least give him an idea of what he needs to work on if he comes back.


    Also, regarding Kyle, it is true that his stock slipped by staying another year. I think it only slipped a little, while others think it slipped a lot, but that's beside the point. Even though he slipped, that doesn't necessarily mean it was the wrong decision. Only Kyle could tell you if he regrets staying, or if it was worth it to him to get a degree, enjoy his senior year, and position himself among the all-time Duke leaders and numerous categories. And whatever he says may not be the same for Mason.

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    I have a gut feeling that he's gone. Same type I had about Kyrie and Gerald (I'm a pessimist). It's better to just expect them to leave and be pleasantly surprised if they stay. That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.

    It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.
    Duuuude. You sound really depressed. We're 25-4 and in a fight for the ACC regular season title and a #1 seed.

    Marshall and Josh will be solid rotation players for us at the 5 and 4. Ryan Kelly could wind up being the conference player of the year next year and is a matchup problem for every big man in the country. Alex Murphy seems like he has a great shot at starting at the 4 and being pretty good out of the gate. Also, we may be getting Amile and/or Tony.

    All this and we have not even discussed our immense riches in the backcourt with or without Austin.

    One of the great things about college is seeing a kid grow and move on to bigger and better things. It's a good thing!

  9. #49
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    Dec 2009
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    New York
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post

    It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.
    Level 10 pain, huh. So, just curious here, what will your pain level be on the day we don't have a preseason top 10 squad? Because that won't be next year.

  10. #50
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    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    I have a gut feeling that he's gone. Same type I had about Kyrie and Gerald (I'm a pessimist). It's better to just expect them to leave and be pleasantly surprised if they stay. That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.

    It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.
    Let's see you don't think Mason is "just not that good", but you are talking about level 10 pain next year with Kelly, Haiston and Marshall. Mason must mean more to you than you let on. It could be that Mason has taken a step back because of a health issue. Sometimes Coach K doesn't let the world know about injuries and other issues. I just don't get it that true Duke fans can talk trash about their own players. If this was IC, I could understand. GoDuke!

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Don't forget that he has the option of entering his name and then pulling out. It's almost guaranteed that he's going to do this as it costs him nothing and it will at the least give him an idea of what he needs to work on if he comes back.
    I seriously doubt with the information available to him and the connections that Coach K has that Mason will enter the draft and withdraw. He'll know where he stands before making any decision. Also, the entry date is April 29 and the withdrawal date is May 8. That is practically worthless. The only upside to that period is he'd be able to go work out for teams.

    I just checked and the Portsmouth Invitational is April 11-14 this year. But if Mason can sniff the first round, he's not going to this. So I'm guessing that the short declare-withdraw window would only allow Mason to have direct contact with scouts and teams. But Coach K and Perky can do that on his behalf to better effect. Perky could call Doc Rivers, Billy King and Doug Collins without too much trouble and get a good consensus.

  12. #52
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Personally, I think the people who say Mason and/or Austin "need" to come back are talking about what they (the speakers) want and not what the players need. It's wishful thinking to the extreme.
    Hate to call you out in any way, Kedsy, as I enjoyed the majority of this post (and your posts in general), but I do think that you're a bit off here. There a lot of posts in this thread that make a strong case in both directions; and projecting an implicit, subconsious, or psychological motive is, in my opinion, unfair to posts which are actually very thoughtful and well-reasoned.

    ------------------------------

    And now that I have criticized someone for projecting subconsious psychological motives onto others, I am now going to do the exact same thing. What a hypocrite!

    When I think about Mason's draft potential, I can't help but wonder if Duke's popular perception as a "soft" big-man school (which I personally disagree with 100%) might work against him. Even if NBA scouts say they are unaffected by it, I fear that, on some subconsious level (there it is!), it does get taken into account. I see it as a disadvantage, albeit a minor one, that all of our current bigs might have to overcome when they eventually enter their names into the draft. Hopefully, if they are worried about it all, it will only function to motivate them to work even harder than they already do. And, of course, I mostly hope that I'm way off the mark.

  13. #53
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    I think scouts will probably compare Mason's game to Joakim Noah. He's more athletic than Noah but has lesser defensive instincts. The similarities are high energy, willingness to hit the boards and set picks, limited offensive moves, and good use of body and athleticism to rebound and block shots.

    Noah is 6'11' and 235 while Mason is 6'10'' and 235. Noah probably has a wider frame and Mason probably has stronger legs.

    Noah had a similar freshman year to Mason - played every game but in limited minutes. The difference is Noah jumped his sophomore year to 14 and 7 then averaged 12 and 8 his junior year. Mason has instead gone from 7 and 8 last year to 10 and 10 this year roughly.

    In my opinion (which wont get you a cup of coffee) Mason would be a backup center in the league as opposed to a 4. He's strong enough, tall enough and jumps well enough to play center, but he'd need a consistent jumper to play the 4 and that's not in his game right now.

    My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.

    In comparison McRoberts is averaging 2 and 3 in 13 minutes a game, but has not played every game for the Lakers this season. He is more skilled than Mason and more instinctive but not as hard a worker.

  14. #54
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    Boca Grande Florida
    The biggest thing Mason could do to help his low post game would be to actually set up properly in the low post.

    He needs to beat the defender to a spot deep under the basket, not drift out on the high post and depend on putting it on the floor.

    With his strength and quickness, he should be able to beat every defender to the best spot on the floor, which is under the basket. Get a low, wide, strong stance with hands extended, catch an entry pass and turn strong to the rim. He has enough touch to score from in close, and the fouls he would draw would put a lot of pressure on the defense.

    Of course, that would create some issues.
    One, he wouldn't be in position to set screens all day.
    And two, he'd have to get somebody to pass it to him.
    No plan is perfect.

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Let's see you don't think Mason is "just not that good", but you are talking about level 10 pain next year with Kelly, Haiston and Marshall. Mason must mean more to you than you let on. It could be that Mason has taken a step back because of a health issue. Sometimes Coach K doesn't let the world know about injuries and other issues. I just don't get it that true Duke fans can talk trash about their own players. If this was IC, I could understand. GoDuke!
    Mason, the way he has played lately, is not that good. He has used his great size and athleticism to get boards, but has done almost nothing on the offensive end. As a college senior, I think that he could be a phenomenal player, but that again, rests in the upside that we perpetually discuss with the Plumlees. Ryan is a dynamite player, but he can't be the anchor of a defense like Miles/Mason can. Josh, however, has shown me little into how he can be an effective college basketball player outside of being able to be 6'7, maybe hit an open lay-up and give 5 fouls. As always, I hope he proves me wrong. And Marshall is just a young-un, I hope he turns out to be the best center Duke's ever had.

    If it seems like I'm talking trash about our players, I apologize, just trying to be realistic, and if that insults you in some way, again, not my intention.

    The second they put on a Duke uniform, the players get my love, but that doesn't mean that I have to like them all the time, or ever for that matter. And that's why a true Duke fan can still "talk trash," as you called it, on a player, because I still love them all.

  16. #56

    lamey whine

    Quote Originally Posted by Dukehky View Post
    That being said, he's just not that good. I feel like McRoberts had more upside than Mason and he went second round. Mason can bull people around in college, and especially the ACC for the most part, but in the pros his lack of ball skills is going to get exposed. Well no it won't, because he'll sit on the bench for the first 5 years of his career until he can make a 10 foot jumper.
    It pains me to think that next year's front line could be Kelly and Hairston, with Marshall coming in, I'm talking level 10 pain.
    a) he's not that good by being the 2nd best rebounder in the conference while averaging nearly 12ppg and shooting 55% FG? You have some warped expectations.
    b) except that JM and MP2 play very different types of ball. Josh is more of a point-PF who passes really well from the top and can't finish around the rim except on dunks while MP2 is a very good from-the-post passer who can score in the lane with defenders draped on him, plus he's an excellent rebounder.
    c) you mean like Shelden Williams? who is now starting and still can't hit that jumper? Good rebounding and solid post defense will get you PT in the NBA. Shelden has improved as a player but is not fundamentally different than when he entered the league, and Mason has a lot more athleticism and upside than Shelden.
    d) I'll take that frontline, but it won't matter that much cuz we'll have Curry, Dawkins, Cook, (shh)G, TT, Murphy, Sulaimon even if we don't get any additional recruits to fill the post. My point is that our backcourt will be even better than this year's plus we'll have 2 legit wing players + a SF/PF (AM) to give us even more versatility.

  17. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    My assumption about his draft status is scouts know what he brings to the table but they doubt there's much upside to him than a good run-jump athlete who hits the boards really hard but has limited offensive potential. He would not be as good as Noah, but he would be a solid backup playing 15-20 minutes per game.
    If this is all you're expecting to get out of him then I would take Miles over Mason, as I said before. I was trying to think of a player comp for Mason and Dale Davis came to mind. 6'11", 230lb, wasn't expected to do much due to lack of offensive game but wound up with a productive 17-year NBA career.

  18. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    If this is all you're expecting to get out of him then I would take Miles over Mason, as I said before. I was trying to think of a player comp for Mason and Dale Davis came to mind. 6'11", 230lb, wasn't expected to do much due to lack of offensive game but wound up with a productive 17-year NBA career.
    Mason seems longer than Miles based on appearance. I could be wrong, but I'd bet his wingspan is a few inches longer. He also passes better out of the post and is better at putting the ball on the floor. I think for those reasons he is a much better NBA prospect.

    As for the Dale Davis comparison, Davis and Miles might be a better comparison. Davis was pretty raw and was great for going after your opponents best big man. His best season was 11.7 and 10.9. I would bet Mason never averages that in any NBA season. Davis started over 80% of his NBA career games. I dont think that will be true for Mason.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    The biggest thing Mason could do to help his low post game would be to actually set up properly in the low post.

    He needs to beat the defender to a spot deep under the basket, not drift out on the high post and depend on putting it on the floor.

    With his strength and quickness, he should be able to beat every defender to the best spot on the floor, which is under the basket. Get a low, wide, strong stance with hands extended, catch an entry pass and turn strong to the rim. He has enough touch to score from in close, and the fouls he would draw would put a lot of pressure on the defense.

    Of course, that would create some issues.
    One, he wouldn't be in position to set screens all day.
    And two, he'd have to get somebody to pass it to him.
    No plan is perfect.
    Sounds like you are describing Tyler Zeller. If I were the big man coach for whatever NBA team that drafts him, I'd push three things for Mason:

    First, establishing proper position before receiving the ball. Second, utilizing the pump fake better. Third, developing a drop step. Zeller excels at all 3. But Mason wont ever be as polished as Zeller, but he can learn to use his athleticism better and be equally as good.

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    As for the Dale Davis comparison, Davis and Miles might be a better comparison. Davis was pretty raw and was great for going after your opponents best big man. His best season was 11.7 and 10.9. I would bet Mason never averages that in any NBA season. Davis started over 80% of his NBA career games. I dont think that will be true for Mason.
    I was reading the scouting report for Davis coming out of Clemson and it was brutal. No one expected he would ever score a point in the NBA. Yet he did well for himself, which gives me hope that Mason can also carve out a niche for himself.

    I have this bizarre theory that Mason will leave but Miles will measure out better than him in the combine.

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