Originally Posted by
gumbomoop
I think superdave's post is mostly excellent, and I agree with much of the detailed argument presented. I've excerpted some points to add some considerations, most of which suggest things are a little less certain than superdave asserts.
Despite what follows below, I lean solidly [perhaps oxymoronic, or mono-moronic] in the direction of superdave's [1]. I'll guess Mason does leave, and should leave.
Probably. But.
[2] IMO, Mason's footwork is a noticeable weakness. Have scouts noticed this, too? Am I mistaken that this is a weakness?
[3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.
[4] Roster similarity, yes, but with one certain big exception, and a second possible. (a) Miles leaves, and were Mason to return, he'd be the main, main big. [If Mason leaves, Marshall will have to play maybe 15-18 mpg; if Mason returns, that goes down to 10-12 mpg for Marshall.] And (b) if Austin leaves, Mason - one would hope - would emerge to join Seth as a go-to guy.
Which leads to [5], which I think is an unnecessary straw-man in superdave's otherwise very well-argued presentation. Even discounting the extra-unnecessay "more than," I'm skeptical that most Mason-should-return posters think he'd have [6] a 20/10 season. Yes, that would move his draft stock way up. But more reasonably we might hope - and if he decides to return, Mason must be thinking - he could have a 15/11 season. That, too, would surely move him up somewhat in the draft.
One final issue: Mason needs to play well the rest of this season, or he risks being a borderline 1st-rounder, and therefore risks dropping to the second round. Right? Seems right....
Although I think superdave has downplayed or neglected a couple of considerations, I find the argument otherwise sound and persuasive, and so would guess that, having improved substantially, he [superdave?? No, Mason....] will leave with K's, and EK posters', blessing.