Mason and the NBA

[coot]

Some very good data that gives us fans hope that Mason will stay for his senior year. Actually, lots of good reasons, not than most situations like this have been presented.

So, anyone want to take a shot (for discussion purposes) as to why he'd choose to go early.

Coot

[Bob Green]

So, anyone want to take a shot (for discussion purposes) as to why he'd choose to go early.

$1,000,000

[MCFinARL]

$1,000,000

Well, yes--and the "potential" thing. If Mason were dramatically better next year than this year, maybe he would do better in next year's draft. But if he is a predictable amount better--improved, but not transformed--he may actually lose value in the draft because he is a year older, and a year shorter on "upside."

[NSDukeFan]

Like just about everyone here, I hope that Mason stays and think that he could improve some more with another year playing for Coach K. I understand this is a strong draft this year and Mason may be able to move up if he were to stay and have the kind of year that we expect he could next year. I don't understand, however, how after a week where he didn't live up to his expectations he has all of a sudden regressed (one of my least favorite words after a disappointing performance.) I don't think that this week erases the 7 previous games where Mason had double digits in points or rebounds, or the fact that Mason was the team's most consistent player for the first 25 games of the year. If Mason does decide to enter the draft, I expect he will get picked in the first round and that a team will be happy to get a player with his athleticism, rebounding, toughness, passing skills, defensive abilities and improving post up skills. I think a lot of teams in the NBA could use one of the best big men in college basketball.

Sorry, I just thought this thread was a little too negative about a player who is having an outstanding season, scoring in double figures, though he is not usually the focus of the offense and is second in the conference in rebounding. I do not fear UNC's outstanding bigs or any opponents' inside players as Mason has played against most of the best big men in the country this year and held his own.

[UrinalCake]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Mason would be taking a big risk by coming back. If he doesn't show substantial improvement, scouts will assume he has peaked and has no more room for growth. He's done a great job this year developing that running jump hook, and his athleticism has always been there. After another year the NBA will be looking for him to establish a wider variety of post moves and something of a jump shot. And unfortunately I don't think he'll have a chance to develop those by playing out of position as a 5 at Duke.

With that said, I think getting his degree is really important to him, so he'll have to factor that in as well.

And I might sound crazy for saying this, but I actually think Miles is more draftable right now than Mason. He would fill a definite role on an NBA team as a defender, rebounder, and screener. He's got a little more size and strength than Mason and just as much athleticism. Plus he can hit an outside shot and make free throws.

[jipops]

If Mason stays mired in his current slump for the rest of the season, then he risks nothing by coming back and entering a weaker draft in '13. If he gets back to January form, has a nice game in his matchup with Zeller, and blows up in the ACCT then he could be back to being a mid-first rounder. That kind of money may be too good to turn down.

[Kedsy]

Mason seems to miss too many close-up shots and loses the ball too often.

He's shooting 56% for the season, so he doesn't miss so many shots, and he has only around two turnovers per game, so I don't agree that he "loses the ball too often." And if by that phrase you mean he doesn't hold on to rebounds, he is 27th in the nation in defensive rebound percentage (best in the ACC) and 32nd in the nation in rebounds per game (2nd in the conference), so I don't think your statement would apply there either.

Mason is entirely being drafted on potential.

Again, the guy is one of the best rebounders in the nation, and he's a double-figure scorer despite his poor free throw shooting. So, I don't think his draft status would be "entirely" based on potential at this point.

--------------------

Personally, I think the people who say Mason and/or Austin "need" to come back are talking about what they (the speakers) want and not what the players need. It's wishful thinking to the extreme. If Mason or Austin have a reasonable belief that they'll be drafted high enough to make it worthwhile, their best interests would be to leave. I'm sure their parents and the coaching staff will evaluate the situation at the proper time and determine their probable draft status, and make recommendations from there. At this point, to debate it is fruitless.

[dkball]

Well, yes--and the "potential" thing. If Mason were dramatically better next year than this year, maybe he would do better in next year's draft. But if he is a predictable amount better--improved, but not transformed--he may actually lose value in the draft because he is a year older, and a year shorter on "upside."

I really think the NBA and NCAA should do the following:

1) At the end of the year, compile all the respectable mock drafts and determine the likely draft position for each non-senior.
2) They then guarantee that player's first year salary. Let's say for example at the end of this year Mason's average mock draft position is 23. That means he would be guaranteed about $1,000,000 if he enters the draft.
3) If the player enters the draft, they get what they get paid just as they do now (i.e. wherever they are drafted).
4) If the player doesn't enter the draft and then enters in the next year, the NBA and/or NCAA would make- up the difference of any "lost" salary. So in my example, Mason stays this year and next year goes undrafted in the first round. He signs a contract to play in Europe/another NBA team/wherever for $250,000. The NBA/NCAA would then pay him the $750,000 to make up for the "loss" incurred by returning to school. Now if Mason stays in school and is drafted 23rd or higher or otherwise signs a basketball contract making $1,000,000 or more, then the NBA/NCAA pays nothing.

This is just the basic framework, there would be many other details to be worked out (do you get your highest draft position guaranteed or just the previous year, should you get paid more than the first guaranteed year, how do you account for injury, etc.) but I think something along these lines would help players, especially those with financial issues feel more secure in staying in school longer. Thoughts?

[Kedsy]

I really think the NBA and NCAA should do the following:

1) At the end of the year, compile all the respectable mock drafts and determine the likely draft position for each non-senior.
2) They then guarantee that player's first year salary. Let's say for example at the end of this year Mason's average mock draft position is 23. That means he would be guaranteed about $1,000,000 if he enters the draft.
3) If the player enters the draft, they get what they get paid just as they do now (i.e. wherever they are drafted).
4) If the player doesn't enter the draft and then enters in the next year, the NBA and/or NCAA would make- up the difference of any "lost" salary. So in my example, Mason stays this year and next year goes undrafted in the first round. He signs a contract to play in Europe/another NBA team/wherever for $250,000. The NBA/NCAA would then pay him the $750,000 to make up for the "loss" incurred by returning to school. Now if Mason stays in school and is drafted 23rd or higher or otherwise signs a basketball contract making $1,000,000 or more, then the NBA/NCAA pays nothing.

This is just the basic framework, there would be many other details to be worked out (do you get your highest draft position guaranteed or just the previous year, should you get paid more than the first guaranteed year, how do you account for injury, etc.) but I think something along these lines would help players, especially those with financial issues feel more secure in staying in school longer. Thoughts?

Why would the NBA and/or NCAA wish to keep the kids in school? Both organizations are pretty healthy financially, so I guess I don't understand what you think their motivation would be to implement your plan?

[m g]

Thoughts?

good thing you're not in charge

[hq2]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Mason would be taking a big risk by coming back. If he doesn't show substantial improvement, scouts will assume he has peaked and has no more room for growth. He's done a great job this year developing that running jump hook, and his athleticism has always been there. After another year the NBA will be looking for him to establish a wider variety of post moves and something of a jump shot. And unfortunately I don't think he'll have a chance to develop those by playing out of position as a 5 at Duke.

That probably gets it right. The NBA drafts on improvement as well as potential. If a player has been around a while and hasn't
gotten that much better, (see Kyle Singler) their draft position can actually drop as the NBA has concluded that there isn't much
more upside to them. Even though Mason's game would benefit from another year at Duke, he probably won't improve enough to
raise his draft position a lot. Better off to go now while he's still a mid-late first rounder.

[dukeballboy88]

I think Mason will be a better player in the NBA. If he fell to Lob City or a team that plays like they do, he would fit right in. All he would have to do is run the floor, fill the lane and catch the oop wich we all know he can do that.

I love him at Duke and hope he stays but I would at least throw my name in the hat. He can make a roster and log good minutes for an NBA team.

[superdave]

Here's the top reasons why Mason should and will go pro after this season:

Mason was born March 5, 1990. He will be 22 next week. If he stays at Duke another year, he will be 23 when he enters the NBA. That would be counter to his long-term financial interests as he would be playing an extra year of ball for free rather than getting paid. As Kobe said recently, you only have so many jumps in your knees. Better to get paid for them than not.

Scouts know who is Mason is. They see he has improved his jump hook and is a pretty good passer and a really good athlete who utilizes his athleticism to block shots and rebound. They know his short-comings are jump-shooting and a 2nd go to move in the post. Neither his strengths and weaknesses are likely to change considerably with a 4th year at Duke.

Mason's draft status is most likely set for this year at below 15 but still in the first round. He's likely to go in the 20-25 range in my opinion. If he comes back for a senior season with a roster that will be substantially similar, Mason is unlikely to be featured more in the offense than he is now. His rebounding stats are really good, but his likely scoring trajectory would put him averaging in the 12-13 points per game range, which is marginally better than this season.

If anyone thinks Mason would average more than 20 points per game for Duke next year and has a legitimate argument as to why then I challenge them to bring it. A 20 and 10 season next year would likely vault Mason into the 14-16 pick range. Mason will not leapfrog the elite prospects and is unlikely to average 20 and 10.

The downside to coming back for a senior season is what we saw with Kyle. He had a big 3-point shooting slump his senior year and that was one of the skills where scouts viewed Singler fitting into the NBA the best and he fell into the 2nd round. Had he left after being Final Four MOP, he would have most likely been a 1st round pick. If Mason is projected as a 1st round pick, he should want to lock in that status by going pro. The downside of having a lackluster senior season outweighs the upside of having a (unlikely) monster senior season.

Nolan made a significant leap from his sophomore to junior season, and another one from his junior to senior season. Part of that was Kyrie getting injured put the ball in Nolan's hands all the time. Mason will not have such an opportunity given his center position and the depth on the roster.

Finally, Mason's game is more tailor made for the NBA than for Duke. He is a great run and jump big man, but that's not really Duke's system. The NBA lane is wider, they run more pick and rolls and the spacing that goes with that will mean more lobs and dunks for Mason. His ability to rebound and protect the rim and finish with dunks means he will stick around the league for a long time. He will probably never start for a contender, but he will be a great energy guy off the bench and will make a team's rotation.

I think he will go pro and I think he should. Most importantly we should all support unconditionally.

[roywhite]

Here's the top reasons why Mason should and will go pro after this season:

Mason was born March 5, 1990. He will be 22 next week. If he stays at Duke another year, he will be 23 when he enters the NBA. That would be counter to his long-term financial interests as he would be playing an extra year of ball for free rather than getting paid. As Kobe said recently, you only have so many jumps in your knees. Better to get paid for them than not.

Scouts know who is Mason is. They see he has improved his jump hook and is a pretty good passer and a really good athlete who utilizes his athleticism to block shots and rebound. They know his short-comings are jump-shooting and a 2nd go to move in the post. Neither his strengths and weaknesses are likely to change considerably with a 4th year at Duke.

Mason's draft status is most likely set for this year at below 15 but still in the first round. He's likely to go in the 20-25 range in my opinion. If he comes back for a senior season with a roster that will be substantially similar, Mason is unlikely to be featured more in the offense than he is now. His rebounding stats are really good, but his likely scoring trajectory would put him averaging in the 12-13 points per game range, which is marginally better than this season.

If anyone thinks Mason would average more than 20 points per game for Duke next year and has a legitimate argument as to why then I challenge them to bring it. A 20 and 10 season next year would likely vault Mason into the 14-16 pick range. Mason will not leapfrog the elite prospects and is unlikely to average 20 and 10.

The downside to coming back for a senior season is what we saw with Kyle. He had a big 3-point shooting slump his senior year and that was one of the skills where scouts viewed Singler fitting into the NBA the best and he fell into the 2nd round. Had he left after being Final Four MOP, he would have most likely been a 1st round pick. If Mason is projected as a 1st round pick, he should want to lock in that status by going pro. The downside of having a lackluster senior season outweighs the upside of having a (unlikely) monster senior season.

Nolan made a significant leap from his sophomore to junior season, and another one from his junior to senior season. Part of that was Kyrie getting injured put the ball in Nolan's hands all the time. Mason will not have such an opportunity given his center position and the depth on the roster.

Finally, Mason's game is more tailor made for the NBA than for Duke. He is a great run and jump big man, but that's not really Duke's system. The NBA lane is wider, they run more pick and rolls and the spacing that goes with that will mean more lobs and dunks for Mason. His ability to rebound and protect the rim and finish with dunks means he will stick around the league for a long time. He will probably never start for a contender, but he will be a great energy guy off the bench and will make a team's rotation.

I think he will go pro and I think he should. Most importantly we should all support unconditionally.

Reasonable points, and I certainly will support Mason.

However, you failed to list arguments in favor of his return, which is IMO also a reasonable choice for him.
The main argument for his return is quite simply if he wants to come back, and complete his Duke experience with a 4th year of athletics, academics, and relationships.
Should he reach that decision, I would hope you and other Duke fans would support that course of action also.

[DukieInBrasil]

As much as I hate to say it, I think Mason would be taking a big risk by coming back. If he doesn't show substantial improvement, scouts will assume he has peaked and has no more room for growth. He's done a great job this year developing that running jump hook, and his athleticism has always been there. After another year the NBA will be looking for him to establish a wider variety of post moves and something of a jump shot. And unfortunately I don't think he'll have a chance to develop those by playing out of position as a 5 at Duke.

Well, from last year to this year Mason has substantially improved his offensive repertoire, seeing as how he had no offensive moves before and now he has a solid hook shot arsenal, left, right, running, stationary. Occasionally he breaks out a little up and under move, too. I'm not sure why you would assume that Mason won't develop (at least) one more solid offensive move during the off-season, since that is exactly what he did from last year to this year.

As far as playing the 5, Duke has 7'0 MP3 on next year's roster, and he will mos def play the 5, when he plays. I'm not saying that MP3 will play 30mpg, but it's not like MP2 will be forced to play the 5 all the time if he returns for next year. Plus MP2 plays the 5 quite a bit this year, and has still been able to develop his game.

All in all, i think there could be a significant amount of improvement in MP2s game from this year to next. If he shows that and the draft situation remains crowded in '12 and open in '13, there could be ample benefit by him staying, should he choose to.

[miramar]

The downside to coming back for a senior season is what we saw with Kyle. He had a big 3-point shooting slump his senior year and that was one of the skills where scouts viewed Singler fitting into the NBA the best and he fell into the 2nd round. Had he left after being Final Four MOP, he would have most likely been a 1st round pick. If Mason is projected as a 1st round pick, he should want to lock in that status by going pro. The downside of having a lackluster senior season outweighs the upside of having a (unlikely) monster senior season.

I certainly can't argue, and I will obviously support Mason's decision either way, but just a short comment on this section.

Sometimes college players will have a tough season with their outside shooting, including (surprisingly enough) Reggie Miller during his senior year at UCLA. That was the first year with the college three pointer, IIRC, and everybody figured that Miller would have an incredible year, but instead he struggled.

Big men, on the other hand, usually get better with one more year of college ball. I would expect that Mason would continue to improve in all areas, although that would only be one factor in his final decision.

No matter what, all Mason has to do is to listen to Kyle's wise words before Madrid beat Barcelona in the King's Cup final:

Singler: "Para ganar tenemos que fijarnos en nuestro juego y hacer una buena defensa."

If Mason plays his game and plays good D he will do great.

[devildeac]

I certainly can't argue, and I will obviously support Mason's decision either way, but just a short comment on this section.

Sometimes college players will have a tough season with their outside shooting, including (surprisingly enough) Reggie Miller during his senior year at UCLA. That was the first year with the college three pointer, IIRC, and everybody figured that Miller would have an incredible year, but instead he struggled.

Big men, on the other hand, usually get better with one more year of college ball. I would expect that Mason would continue to improve in all areas, although that would only be one factor in his final decision.

No matter what, all Mason has to do is to listen to Kyle's wise words before Madrid beat Barcelona in the King's Cup final:

Singler: "Para ganar tenemos que fijarnos en nuestro juego y hacer una buena defensa."

If Mason plays his game and plays good D he will do great.

I don't remember much Spanish from my high school years but I'll guess, loosely translated, that means Go To Hell, carolina, Go To Hell! (winks slyly)

[DukieInBrasil]

I don't remember much Spanish from my high school years but I'll guess, loosely translated, that means Go To Hell, carolina, Go To Hell! (winks slyly)

Translation: "to win we need to focus on our game and make (play) good defense".
The Va al Infierno, Carolina, Vayase al Diablo!!!! was the next line, which was not quoted.

[gumbomoop]

... [1] why Mason should and will go pro after this season:

Scouts know ... his [2] short-comings are jump-shooting and a 2nd go to move in the post. Neither his strengths and weaknesses are likely to [3] change considerably with a 4th year at Duke.

He's likely to go in the 20-25 range in my opinion. If he comes back for a senior season with a [4] roster that will be substantially similar, Mason is unlikely to be featured more in the offense than he is now.

If anyone thinks Mason would average [5] more than 20 points per game for Duke next year and has a legitimate argument as to why then I challenge them to bring it. [6] A 20 and 10 season next year would likely vault Mason into the 14-16 pick range. Mason will not leapfrog the elite prospects and is unlikely to average 20 and 10.

I think superdave's post is mostly excellent, and I agree with much of the detailed argument presented. I've excerpted some points to add some considerations, most of which suggest things are a little less certain than superdave asserts.

Despite what follows below, I lean solidly [perhaps oxymoronic, or mono-moronic] in the direction of superdave's [1]. I'll guess Mason does leave, and should leave.

Probably. But.

[2] IMO, Mason's footwork is a noticeable weakness. Have scouts noticed this, too? Am I mistaken that this is a weakness?

[3] If his footwork needs substantial improvement, well, he surely could do that in a 4th year. And, perhaps unlike superdave, I'm convinced that improved footwork would significantly enhance the several strengths he already demonstrates. Better footwork would make him a far more confident and fluid player on O.

[4] Roster similarity, yes, but with one certain big exception, and a second possible. (a) Miles leaves, and were Mason to return, he'd be the main, main big. [If Mason leaves, Marshall will have to play maybe 15-18 mpg; if Mason returns, that goes down to 10-12 mpg for Marshall.] And (b) if Austin leaves, Mason - one would hope - would emerge to join Seth as a go-to guy.

Which leads to [5], which I think is an unnecessary straw-man in superdave's otherwise very well-argued presentation. Even discounting the extra-unnecessay "more than," I'm skeptical that most Mason-should-return posters think he'd have [6] a 20/10 season. Yes, that would move his draft stock way up. But more reasonably we might hope - and if he decides to return, Mason must be thinking - he could have a 15/11 season. That, too, would surely move him up somewhat in the draft.

One final issue: Mason needs to play well the rest of this season, or he risks being a borderline 1st-rounder, and therefore risks dropping to the second round. Right? Seems right....

Although I think superdave has downplayed or neglected a couple of considerations, I find the argument otherwise sound and persuasive, and so would guess that, having improved substantially, he [superdave?? No, Mason....] will leave with K's, and EK posters', blessing.

[superdave]

Reasonable points, and I certainly will support Mason.

However, you failed to list arguments in favor of his return, which is IMO also a reasonable choice for him.
The main argument for his return is quite simply if he wants to come back, and complete his Duke experience with a 4th year of athletics, academics, and relationships.
Should he reach that decision, I would hope you and other Duke fans would support that course of action also.

Absolutely. I think this would be the #1 reason Mason would want to come back - he loves Duke and wants to win a title. There's not a better reason in the world to stay in school. But that's a largely emotional reason and I think the straight-up, calculated, self-interested decision suggests going pro.

I made a substantially similar argument as to why Hansborough should go pro after his sophomore and junior seasons, and he stayed for what it's worth.