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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Duke Fan View Post
    I am not sure how this was ," an excellent" win?, Yes we won and played good defense in the OT, but to call this an excellent win, I do not think so.Virginia Tech is 15-14 and 4-10 in the ACC, will not make the tournament and we were at home.

    It was an excellent win because we won!! The point is not VT but that we beat the "Trap game scenario".

  2. #42
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by wilko View Post
    It was an excellent win because we won!! The point is not VT but that we beat the "Trap game scenario".
    I guess that is what makes horse racing. A win is a win and we are just probably having a semantic argument over the word excellent.

  3. #43
    Having posted on the striking discrepancy in Duke's prep-days disadvantage over the course of the ACC season.....

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Duke plays 16 conference games this season. Of that total:
    a. Games in which Duke & opponent have equal number of prep days = 6
    b. Games in which opponent has more prep days than Duke = 9
    c. Games in which Duke has more prep days than opponent = 1 [last game, UNC] [Btw, UNC is among the 9 in line b, above]

    So, disparity will happen, but if prep days are useful to, well, prepare for one's opponent, Duke gets short end of that discrepancy stick, and noticeably so.
    .... naturally I agree with SCMatt33 and Papa John.

    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    I want to give Duke a huge break in this game for a lot of effort and energy stats. I know the commentator harped a lot on rest and "tired legs" for Duke, but this is not like when Lenny Elmore does it. I talked about this in the in game thread, but it's worth mentioning again. Va Tech had just about every single intangible and physical advantage you could have. Physically, Duke had one day of rest to travel in from Florida, while Va Tech had three days rest to come in from Blacksburg. Going back further, Duke had a trip that went Boston-Durham-Tallahassee-Durham in just 7 days, while Tech, while Tech had 2 home games before this in the last 8 days.
    Quote Originally Posted by Papa John View Post
    Agree with most everything you [SCMatt33] said, and very insightful analysis regarding both team's last week coming into this game. Regarding the potential for 3-games in 3-days in the ACC tourney and 1-day-off turnarounds in the NCAAs, however, there is a big difference in both situations in that your opponents in those venues are in the same boat as you.
    And I'm not surprised that K has noticed this discrepancy....

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    .... K doesn't complain about it. I have to assume he and the staff occasionally notice.
    .... especially in this particularly discrepant case [as detailed by SCMatt33]. Good thing it wasn't a Thurs night 9:00 in Boston, followed by a noon Sat in Tally. Certainly Brant and Alexander talked so much about tired legs because, as they specifically said early in the broadcast, K expressed some concern when they spoke to him before the game.

    I have to assume it has been on his mind some, as Brant and Alexander quoted K as saying - accurately, I might add, as you can see from the numbers above - that in a majority of Duke's ACC games, the opponent has had more prep time. And the discrepancy is actually more striking still, for no team comes anywhere close to Duke in total number of prep days lacking. [To give just the "outliers": over the course of the ACC season, Duke is -11 in prep days; BC is -6; Clemson is +8, Miami +7.]

    Of course K has to walk a fine line here, for he wants neither to seem to be nor to be a complainer. But this final discrepancy seems to have got to him a little bit. [Not as much as it has gotten to me, of course; but still, just a little.]

    Quote Originally Posted by devildeac View Post
    Listening to K now:
    Happy with W with 39 hour turn-around.
    Last edited by gumbomoop; 02-25-2012 at 04:44 PM.

  4. #44
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    Nashville
    Just wanted to give some props to Mason for showing up big time after Ryan fouled out. He was having a HORRIBLE game, but made some huge plays down the stretch for us. Wouldn't have made it to OT without him, IMO.

  5. #45
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    Apr 2007
    I am not sure how this was ," an excellent" win?, Yes we won and played good defense in the OT, but to call this an excellent win, I do not think so.Virginia Tech is 15-14 and 4-10 in the ACC, will not make the tournament and we were at home.
    Yes, thank you. We managed to get by at home against a mediocre (bad ACC) team. When it's late in the season and the team's tired,
    we'll take Ws any way we can, but we still could have done a bit better. Nice to see Miles continue doing his late-Zoubs impression.

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by hq2 View Post
    Yes, thank you. We managed to get by at home against a mediocre (bad ACC) team. When it's late in the season and the team's tired,
    we'll take Ws any way we can, but we still could have done a bit better. Nice to see Miles continue doing his late-Zoubs impression.
    It wasn't exactly a warm-and-fuzzies game, but I think it was another important show of toughness by our team. Coming into the game banged up, jet lagged and with less than 40 hours of rest from the most intense game of the year, I wasn't ever really hoping for anything except to get out of it alive. The fact that we did so in OT on tired legs after being down three with a minute left is impressive (even if we maybe shouldn't have been in that situation in the first place), and hopefully another stepping stone for growth for our quickly-maturing-and-gelling team.

  7. #47
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    To me the performance today was 100% about the short turn around. I was cussing the ACC the entire game. What they are making these kids do is freaking ridiculous an ignorant. That's as close to "a scheduled loss" as you can get. Having a team play an away game on Thursday Night, then slot them into the 12pm start time on Saturday is just wrong. Add to those circumstances that VaTech had not played since Tuesday, and you have a recipe for disaster. Duke somehow overcame all of that and squeaked out the win, but were very fortunate to do so. The ACC did the exact same thing to NC State last weekend. Both State and Duke had to go "Road Game Thursday Night", "Noon start at home on Sat", then another game Tuesday Night. At home for State, road game for Duke in that third outing. The Thurs to Saturday turnaround would not be so bad if the tipoff on Sat was 7pm or 9pm. Anyway, rant over, and we dodged a huge bullet, but it doesn't make it ok in my book.

    I thought the defense today was really good, especially on the perimeter. Tyler has gotten much better with his on ball defense, and the team as a whole communicates, and rotates better. If they can keep playing defense at that level good things will happen. Another strong outing for Miles, and even though Mason struggled on offense, he played good defense and both he and Miles rebounded like madmen down the stretch. That was huge. I loved Miles draining those two free throws to close the door on the Hokies as well.

    Austin is now a beast, and a serious weapon. His decision making has become really good for the most part, and he now does a good job of knowing when to dish and when to finish. Seth has stepped it up as well.

    The guys were out of sync much of the day on offense making uncharacteristic mistakes but I attribute most of that to the aforementioned short turn around. A lot of physical and mental fatigue from the very physical FSU game. I imagine the guys will sleep well tonight, likely with ice packs wrapped around various body parts. Seth and Austin with recent ankle injuries, Josh cut and battered, and Tyler got killed on that pick. Many bumps and bruises that will need healing as they head into the showdown next weekend.

    Tough team. Very tough.

    "[T]he tarnished Tar Heels that bear little resemblance to the revered program built by Dean Smith."- Ashville Times
    "UNC and the NCAA are trying to conceal that the fraud was specifically designed to pad the transcripts of varsity athletes" - Bloomberg

  8. #48
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by Greg_Newton View Post
    It wasn't exactly a warm-and-fuzzies game, but I think it was another important show of toughness by our team. Coming into the game banged up, jet lagged and with less than 40 hours of rest from the most intense game of the year, I wasn't ever really hoping for anything except to get out of it alive. The fact that we did so in OT on tired legs after being down three with a minute left is impressive (even if we maybe shouldn't have been in that situation in the first place), and hopefully another stepping stone for growth for our quickly-maturing-and-gelling team.
    Not to beat a dead horse, but how is it ," jet lag", flying from Talahassee to Raleigh-Durham. In the tournament we will have approximately the same amount of rest.

  9. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Duke Fan View Post
    I am not sure how this was ," an excellent" win?, Yes we won and played good defense in the OT, but to call this an excellent win, I do not think so.Virginia Tech is 15-14 and 4-10 in the ACC, will not make the tournament and we were at home.
    It is an excellent win because the team was physically and mentally fatigued after a tough game against FSU. They had a very quick turnaround after playing in Tallahassee on Thursday. They were far from 100%. This isn't a video game where players perform according to their attributes. Duke had less rest than Va Tech and they were not there emotionally at the same level as Tech. That is why K is talking about being proud of his team's performance today.

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Duke Fan View Post
    Not to beat a dead horse, but how is it ," jet lag", flying from Talahassee to Raleigh-Durham. In the tournament we will have approximately the same amount of rest.
    In the tournament we have no travel. Just back to the hotel and to bed. After Fl State, we got home around 2:00 A.M. Friday morning - so to bed at what, 3:30 - 4:00. We then play again at Noon Saturday - about 30 - 32 hours later. That is nothing like the tournament.

  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Duke Fan View Post
    Not to beat a dead horse, but how is it ," jet lag", flying from Talahassee to Raleigh-Durham. In the tournament we will have approximately the same amount of rest.
    You don't have to travel over the 2 day breaks in the tournament.

    I'm of the opinion that what the heck, make it as hard as possible...make us play 3 straight days against teams with a month off...If we get beat, we get beat....its about making us ready for the tournament....It's like the batter who swings the bat with a doughnut while on deck....makes him quicker in the box. We make games artificially hard during the regular season, and wehn we get teams on equal terms in the post season, it should be easier.....May it make it harder to win a regular season title? maybe....but we don't have any say in the schedule anyway...so whats wrong with seeing it in a positive light.

    As others have pointed out, the numbers are skewed since we play in our off days in the acc schedule. THe acc can't do anything about that. I also believe that CBS picks the game time....and the big games is usually at noon on saturday...I'm not sure the ACC had any say about that.

    BY my count we had turnarounds of:
    days:times
    2:2
    3:6
    4:4
    5:2
    8:1

    UNC on the other hand had
    2:1
    3:6
    4:6
    5:1
    7:1

    You'll see we had one more 2 day turnaround.....hardly out of line

    FSU had
    2:1
    3:6
    4:5
    5:2
    6:1

    Now obviously there isn't going to be a huge variation in these numbers since the teams play the same number of games in the same number of days (about)....I'm going to venture that the ACC really doesn't pay attention to which team had a longer rest coming into a game, and certainly doesn't track how many times one team has had a longer rest over teh course of the season. As such, I don't think there is any conspiracy. I'm guessing if we were to look at the number of times one team had a longer prep over the course of, say, a decade, it would be about even.

    That said, I think the league could do better at ensuring that teams don't have a 2 day turnover with an away game as the first game.....I'm guessing they just don't give it much thought.
    usa

  12. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post

    BY my count we had turnarounds of:
    days:times
    2:2
    3:6
    4:4
    5:2
    8:1

    UNC on the other hand had
    2:1
    3:6
    4:6
    5:1
    7:1

    You'll see we had one more 2 day turnaround.....hardly out of line

    FSU had
    2:1
    3:6
    4:5
    5:2
    6:1

    Now obviously there isn't going to be a huge variation in these numbers since the teams play the same number of games in the same number of days (about)
    Maybe I'm thinking about this the wrong way, but anyhow I'm thinking the comparisons you cite here are not the issue. Rather, (1) for each ACC game, do the teams have the same # of prep days? And (2) over the course of the season is there a significant discrepancy ["huge variation'] among the 12 teams re +/or/- prep days?

    For both (1) and (2) Duke is the outlier, having (1) far more games than any other team [only BC - go figure - is even close] in which they are disadvantaged by fewer prep days, and (2) easily the largest total disadvantage-discrepancy.

    I suppose one could argue about what constitutes "huge variation," but I assert that Duke is the clear outlier, in a clearly disadvantageous prep-days way, for both (1) and (2).

    I concede that it may well be nothing more than coincidence that in Duke's 2 losses, the opponent had more prep days than did Duke: FSU (in CIS) had 2 extra days, and Miami (in CIS) had 1 extra day. Indeed, as Duke is the outlier - but also is 12-2 - that means plenty of times - 7 to be exact - Duke won over an opponent that had more prep time.

    Fwiw, Wake and Duke both played today, so neither team has a prep-time advantage for Tuesday's game. And the only game out of its 16 that Duke has the extra prep day will be for the season finale v. UNC [who, incidentally, had an extra prep day for the game in 3 Rivers].

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Maybe I'm thinking about this the wrong way, but anyhow I'm thinking the comparisons you cite here are not the issue. Rather, (1) for each ACC game, do the teams have the same # of prep days? And (2) over the course of the season is there a significant discrepancy ["huge variation'] among the 12 teams re +/or/- prep days?

    For both (1) and (2) Duke is the outlier, having (1) far more games than any other team [only BC - go figure - is even close] in which they are disadvantaged by fewer prep days, and (2) easily the largest total disadvantage-discrepancy.

    I suppose one could argue about what constitutes "huge variation," but I assert that Duke is the clear outlier, in a clearly disadvantageous prep-days way, for both (1) and (2).

    I concede that it may well be nothing more than coincidence that in Duke's 2 losses, the opponent had more prep days than did Duke: FSU (in CIS) had 2 extra days, and Miami (in CIS) had 1 extra day. Indeed, as Duke is the outlier - but also is 12-2 - that means plenty of times - 7 to be exact - Duke won over an opponent that had more prep time.

    Fwiw, Wake and Duke both played today, so neither team has a prep-time advantage for Tuesday's game. And the only game out of its 16 that Duke has the extra prep day will be for the season finale v. UNC [who, incidentally, had an extra prep day for the game in 3 Rivers].
    NO no, you're right. I realized in the course of writing that post that each team would have roughly the same average total gap between games...since the total number of days and games are the same. I just want to make sure that when you say "prep days" you ignore the non acc game we played against st johns in the middle of the ACC season. It's not the ACC's fault we schedule that game. You may have done that already, but just making sure.

    One could argue still that 1 season is too small a sample size to garner anything. To get a better idea, If duke was a significant outlier over the course of a decade, then THAT is certainly something.
    usa

  14. #54

    In the tournament

    Quote Originally Posted by NYC Duke Fan View Post
    Not to beat a dead horse, but how is it ," jet lag", flying from Talahassee to Raleigh-Durham. In the tournament we will have approximately the same amount of rest.
    1. No travel, big difference.
    2. Opponent has about the same amount of time between games, another difference.

    SoCal

  15. #55
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I just want to make sure that when you say "prep days" you ignore the non acc game we played against st johns in the middle of the ACC season. It's not the ACC's fault we schedule that game. You may have done that already, but just making sure.

    One could argue still that 1 season is too small a sample size to garner anything. To get a better idea, If duke was a significant outlier over the course of a decade, then THAT is certainly something.
    I ignored the SJ game in one sense, because it was irrelevant. That is, because it wasn't an ACC game, I didn't care whether Duke or SJ had any prep-days advantage when they played each other. But to be sure I'm understood, for Duke's game after SJ - v. VT - the relevant calculation was to compare when Duke and VT last played [anybody, i.e., when they last played a game] before they played each other in Blacksburg. So ...... Duke and VT played each other on 2/2. For that game, Duke and VT had the same # of prep-days, as both had played on 1/28 [Duke v. SJ, and VT v. Md]. Thus, in this second, relevant, sense, I did not, could not, ignore the SJ game.

    [Edit -- Even if one thinks I should have ignored the SJ even when calculating prep-days for that first VT game, Duke is still easily the outlier. Ignoring the fact that Duke actually played SJ, in effect pretending that Duke had several extra prep days for that first VT game, would change Duke's outlier status only minimally. It would mean that Duke would have one fewer game for which it and its opponent had the same # of prep days, and it would add one game in which Duke had more prep days than its opponent. But it would not change at all the number of games in which Duke's opponent had more prep days than did Duke; that number remains 9, far more than all the other ACC teams, with only BC coming "close," with 6 such discrepancy-disadvantages.]

    As to sample size, I agree one season does not a conspiracy make. For several years, my paranoia had me convinced that Duke perennially got shafted re unbalanced mess. But I had to drop that for this season, as my analysis led me to conclude prior to this season that Duke had a relatively easy unbalanced mess this year: no @UVa, @Miami, @NCSt, and other reasons I explained in far too much detail on probably several threads. IMO, for instance, UNC had a slightly tougher schedule than did Duke this season.

    As several posters have noted, if the ACC would simply eliminate these extremely short turnarounds, involving Thurs night/travel/early Sat game, I think that would be a bit fairer. Here's a concrete example: for the FSU game in CIS, Duke had 2 fewer prep days. FSU played on Tues, Duke on Thurs, then they played each other on Sat. [Posters may recall this tilt.....] And while I didn't like the fact that FSU had more prep time, at least Duke's turnaround was quite different from the current [FSU, then early Sat VT] example. In that earlier example, Duke played at home, 7 pm Thurs 1/19, and then also at home, late Sat aft 1/21. No travel, no early Sat game. Yes, Duke lost that one, but whether FSU's extra prep time had any effect on the outcome, one couldn't say Duke seemed tired in that one. I recall a thrilling game.

    Wait..... Come to think of it, you don't suppose Snaer practiced a lot of desperation 3s for 2 extra days..... Reminds me of Bob Dylan's suspicion of 'ol Betsy Ross, on discovering "red stripes in the American flag." ["Talkin' John Birch Paranoid Blues"]
    Last edited by gumbomoop; 02-25-2012 at 09:27 PM.

  16. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I ignored the SJ game in one sense, because it was irrelevant. That is, because it wasn't an ACC game, I didn't care whether Duke or SJ had any prep-days advantage when they played each other. But to be sure I'm understood, for Duke's game after SJ - v. VT - the relevant calculation was to compare when Duke and VT last played [anybody, i.e., when they last played a game] before they played each other in Blacksburg. So ...... Duke and VT played each other on 2/2. For that game, Duke and VT had the same # of prep-days, as both had played on 1/28 [Duke v. SJ, and VT v. Md]. Thus, in this second, relevant, sense, I did not, could not, ignore the SJ game.

    As to sample size, I agree one season does not a conspiracy make. For several years, my paranoia had me convinced that Duke perennially got shafted re unbalanced mess. But I had to drop that for this season, as my analysis led me to conclude prior to this season that Duke had a relatively easy unbalanced mess this year: no @UVa, @Miami, @NCSt, and other reasons I explained in far too much detail on probably several threads. IMO, for instance, UNC had a slightly tougher schedule than did Duke this season.

    As several posters have noted, if the ACC would simply eliminate these extremely short turnarounds, involving Thurs night/travel/early Sat game, I think that would be a bit fairer. Here's a concrete example: for the FSU game in CIS, Duke had 2 fewer prep days. FSU played on Tues, Duke on Thurs, then they played each other on Sat. [Posters may recall this tilt.....] And while I didn't like the fact that FSU had more prep time, at least Duke's turnaround was quite different from the current [FSU, then early Sat VT] example. In that earlier example, Duke played at home, 7 pm Thurs 1/19, and then also at home, late Sat aft 1/21. No travel, no early Sat game. Yes, Duke lost that one, but whether FSU's extra prep time had any effect on the outcome, one couldn't say Duke seemed tired in that one. I recall a thrilling game.

    Wait..... Come to think of it, you don't suppose Snaer practiced a lot of desperation 3s for 2 extra days..... Reminds me of Bob Dylan's suspicion of 'ol Betsy Ross, on discovering "red stripes in the American flag." ["Talkin' John Birch Paranoid Blues"]
    I think it is a mistake to count ST johns when you are saying our prep was equal to VT. We schedule that game. The ACC gives us a week off, and we would be much closer to the other teams, and we put a game there. I'm not sure how you can complain about something that is at least some way self imposed.
    usa

  17. #57
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by SoCalDukeFan View Post
    1. No travel, big difference.
    2. Opponent has about the same amount of time between games, another difference.

    SoCal
    Those are valid points

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I think it is a mistake to count ST johns when you are saying our prep was equal to VT. We schedule that game. The ACC gives us a week off, and we would be much closer to the other teams, and we put a game there. I'm not sure how you can complain about something that is at least some way self imposed.
    Between the time I posted last and your response, I edited to add a paragraph addressing this issue, so you probably didn't get to read it.

    I see that we disagree about the "ignoring SJ" issue. But when you read my edit-addition, I hope you'll see that, even taking your view, Duke's outlier status does not change.

    The SJ-as-extra-game-so-don't-blame-ACC is an interesting issue. But it doesn't change the point that Duke was discrepancy-disadvantaged far more than any other team.

    I suspect K actually spoke publicly about it this time because this FSU-VT turnaround was a pretty lousy deal.

  19. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Between the time I posted last and your response, I edited to add a paragraph addressing this issue, so you probably didn't get to read it.

    I see that we disagree about the "ignoring SJ" issue. But when you read my edit-addition, I hope you'll see that, even taking your view, Duke's outlier status does not change.

    The SJ-as-extra-game-so-don't-blame-ACC is an interesting issue. But it doesn't change the point that Duke was discrepancy-disadvantaged far more than any other team.

    I suspect K actually spoke publicly about it this time because this FSU-VT turnaround was a pretty lousy deal.
    Ah. Thanks for the notice. Yeah we still are, for sure, and there's no doubt that it was tough for us today, but we stuck it out, and we'll be that much more prepared when we have to come off 1 and 2 days rest in the post season....we have some extra experience to draw on that our opponents don't. I think coach K would probabyl tell the teams the same thing when, say, we're playing for a final 4 birth (or any other quick turnaround)...."hey, we've had the 2 day turnaround...remember what we did to VT? the guys we're playing don't have that to draw on"
    usa

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Ah. Thanks for the notice. Yeah we still are, for sure, and there's no doubt that it was tough for us today, but we stuck it out, and we'll be that much more prepared when we have to come off 1 and 2 days rest in the post season....we have some extra experience to draw on that our opponents don't. I think coach K would probabyl tell the teams the same thing when, say, we're playing for a final 4 birth (or any other quick turnaround)...."hey, we've had the 2 day turnaround...remember what we did to VT? the guys we're playing don't have that to draw on"
    Also had the NCAA type weekend schedule earlier in the season with Wake on a Thursday night, followed by FSU on a Saturday afternoon.
    That one didn't work out as well, though I agree with your point that K is very likely to remind his team about being experienced with quick turnarounds when we do get in the NCAA Tournament.

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