Time to take Duke seriously as a Final Four contender

[Matches]

That said, what worries me the most is the drubbing in Columbus and the loss at Temple. Final Four teams generally don't get gobsmacked by anyone (with the notable exception of the '91 team which Kerlina destroyed in the ACC tourney).

I think there are a ton of counter-examples: Duke '10 (Georgetown), Maryland '02 (Duke) come immediately to mind.

[phaedrus]

I think there are a ton of counter-examples: Duke '10 (Georgetown), Maryland '02 (Duke) come immediately to mind.

Butler lost to UW-Milwaukee last season. Twice.

I don't see how anyone can make sweeping statements about the supposed qualifications of Final Four teams after last season.

[m g]

That said, what worries me the most is the drubbing in Columbus and the loss at Temple. Final Four teams generally don't get gobsmacked by anyone (with the notable exception of the '91 team which Kerlina destroyed in the ACC tourney).

In addition to the Georgetown smackdown, the 2010 Duke team got obliterated by a very mediocre NC State squad.

[Kedsy]

The defense just isn't good enough for us to weather a poor shooting night.

I don't agree. Here are our seven worst three-point performances in games this year:

18.8% from three @ Maryland -- Duke W
20.0% from three @ Ohio State -- Duke L
25.0% from three vs. UVa -- Duke W
27.3% from three @ Ga Tech -- Duke W
27.6% from three vs. NC State -- Duke W
29.0% from three vs. Miami -- Duke L in OT, but the L was more about missed free throws than it was missed outside shots
29.4% from three vs. Washington -- Duke W

And most of those teams are NCAA tournament worthy (all but Maryland and Georgia Tech).

It's also worth noting that in our other two losses we shot 43% from three in each game.

Final Four teams generally don't get gobsmacked by anyone...

This isn't really true either. Here's a table just from the past three years:

Year    Team     # of double digit losses      worst loss
----    -----    -----------------------       ----------
2011     UConn           3                        17 pts
2011     Butler          2                        15 pts
2011     VCU             5                        20 pts
2011     UK              0
2010     Duke            2                        14 pts
2010     Butler          0
2010     Mich St         2                        18 pts
2010     West Va         2                        15 pts (plus a 21 pt loss in Final Four)
2009     UNC             0
2009     Mich St         4                        35 pts (plus a 17 pt loss in Final Four)
2009     UConn           3                        11 pts
2009     Villanova       2                        21 pts (plus a 14 pt loss in Final Four)

So, really, getting shellacked once or twice is more of the norm, rather than the exception.

[jimsumner]

but the team seems to be wildly inconsistent, even with wins (one awful stretch or half, one brilliant run), that seems to be a focus/effort issue. Although, they seem to be working that out hopefully. I always think Duke has a final four team, an offshoot of having watched a series of late 80's Duke teams go 9-5 in conference and still make a Final Four run.

That said, what worries me the most is the drubbing in Columbus and the loss at Temple. Final Four teams generally don't get gobsmacked by anyone (with the notable exception of the '91 team which Kerlina destroyed in the ACC tourney).

It will be a fun tourney from excitment level, that's for sure.

1964 Michigan 83 Duke 67
1978 NC State 74 Duke 50
1978 Wake Forest 79 Duke 60
1989 UNC 91 Duke 71
1989 NC State 88 Duke 73
1990 North Carolina 79 Duke 60
1990 Georgia Tech 83 Duke 72
1991 Virginia 81 Duke 64
1991 North Carolina 96 Duke 74
1994 North Carolina 89 Duke 78
2010 NC State 88 Duke 74
2010 Georgetown 89 Duke 77

[dukenilnil]

1964 Michigan 83 Duke 67
1978 NC State 74 Duke 50
1978 Wake Forest 79 Duke 60
1989 UNC 91 Duke 71
1989 NC State 88 Duke 73
1990 North Carolina 79 Duke 60
1990 Georgia Tech 83 Duke 72
1991 Virginia 81 Duke 64
1991 North Carolina 96 Duke 74
1994 North Carolina 89 Duke 78
2010 NC State 88 Duke 74
2010 Georgetown 89 Duke 77

Point taken

[OldPhiKap]

1991 North Carolina 96 Duke 74

Of particular note, this butt-whooping was on Selection Sunday (i.e. the ACC Championship game and therefore the last game before the NCAA tournament started -- we all know what happened the next six games)

[wilko]

I'm always hopeful that Duke can win EVERY game..
But for a Final Four run... I think I'd need to see us win out our next 3 games to start drinking the cool-aid with BOTH hands.

Sure we have some flaws. Sure our guys ARE getting better every game.. I'd have a lot more confidence however, if we didn't fall behind and HAVE to make a comeback in the 1st place. I'd feel better if teams like Temple didn't seemingly find Blue Devil Kryptonite every time we play them.

I don't think we are taking too many 3's. Its a good weapon in our arsenal so why not use it?
It means opposing D's have to play us closer. That should allow better spacing for our guards to attack with the dribble or find a passing angle.

That said, I'm trying to kick back relax and enjoy it all more.

[Genedoc]

I don't agree. Here are our seven worst three-point performances in games this year:

18.8% from three @ Maryland -- Duke W
20.0% from three @ Ohio State -- Duke L
25.0% from three vs. UVa -- Duke W
27.3% from three @ Ga Tech -- Duke W
27.6% from three vs. NC State -- Duke W
29.0% from three vs. Miami -- Duke L in OT, but the L was more about missed free throws than it was missed outside shots
29.4% from three vs. Washington -- Duke W

And most of those teams are NCAA tournament worthy (all but Maryland and Georgia Tech).

It's also worth noting that in our other two losses we shot 43% from three in each game.

I thought it was understood that we were discussing "against good team/en route to a Final Four" scenarios, in which case I stand by my assertion that Duke's defense is not good enough to survive a poor shooting night against most good teams. The Virginia game is the only counterpoint, and they're offensively challenged enough to negate our poor D. How we fare against a collection of teams with a KenPom that averages in the mid-90's isn't particularly relevant to how we'll fare in then NCAA tournament.

[wilko]

ALSO
Stray observation that I'm not quite sure how to fully articulate.. it seems a bit too obvious...

Our D (rebounding, outlet passing, positioning) seems to thrive when the opponent misses shots... Its not especially adept at making O players *miss* shots (blocks, help rotation). But when we corral a rebound we know what to do. Our perimeter denial seems to making passing angles a bit more contested but blow-bys still happen..

[throatybeard]

Most importantly, they are 24-4 on the season and 11-2 in ACC play.

Most importantly? I dunno, man, what's our "record by halfs?"

[OldPhiKap]

Most importantly? I dunno, man, what's our "record by halfs?"

We have won 24 games when we outscored our opponent by the end of regulation.

We are only 1-3 when we have failed to do so.


Pretty important stuff right there.

[Duvall]

I thought it was understood that we were discussing "against good team/en route to a Final Four" scenarios, in which case I stand by my assertion that Duke's defense is not good enough to survive a poor shooting night against most good teams. The Virginia game is the only counterpoint, and they're offensively challenged enough to negate our poor D. How we fare against a collection of teams with a KenPom that averages in the mid-90's isn't particularly relevant to how we'll fare in then NCAA tournament.

Well, part of the problem is that this team simply hasn't had many poor shooting nights. So looking for counterpoints is going to be a problem.

[diveonthefloor]

Duke still 8th in the Sagarin ratings despite recent success. (I've always tended to favor Sagarin over other ratings methodologies.)

Of the teams ahead of Duke in the Sagarin, the only teams I think we have little chance to beat on a neutral floor are KY, OSU, and to a lesser extent Syracuse.
Not sure who will get the 4th number one seed out of the rest...they each have tough conference games left in addition to competitive conference tournaments.

I think one of the keys to this post season will be the referee assignments for some of the teams with thinner benches, most notably UNC. If UNC gets some refs who like to swallow the whistle, they could easily advance all the way. But if the get Karl, Teddy, or Jamie...they will go down early.

[OldPhiKap]

Duke still 8th in the Sagarin ratings despite recent success. (I've always tended to favor Sagarin over other ratings methodologies.)

Of the teams ahead of Duke in the Sagarin, the only teams I think we have little chance to beat on a neutral floor are KY, OSU, and to a lesser extent Syracuse.
Not sure who will get the 4th number one seed out of the rest...they each have tough conference games left in addition to competitive conference tournaments.

I think one of the keys to this post season will be the referee assignments for some of the teams with thinner benches, most notably UNC. If UNC gets some refs who like to swallow the whistle, they could easily advance all the way. But if the get Karl, Teddy, or Jamie...they will go down early.

There are a number of teams out there that can beat us on a given day. There is no team out there that we cannot beat if we execute like we are capable. Give me fourty minutes of focused effort, and I'll live with the results.

In K I trust.

[Kedsy]

I'd feel better if teams like Temple didn't seemingly find Blue Devil Kryptonite every time we play them.

No offense, but this is a pretty myopic statement. The last time Temple beat us (before this year) was 1996. And we play them a lot. Coach K is 11-2 against Temple in his Duke career.

I'm trying to think of other teams "like Temple" who have beaten us, but it's hard to do. St. John's, maybe? They beat us last year, and before that in 2003. Coach K is 15-3 against the Johnnies in his Duke career. So they hardly beat us "every time we play them." Who else? Michigan? Georgetown? Neither seem to be "like Temple" to me, and I'm pretty sure Coach K's Duke teams have beaten both of them more than they've beaten us, anyway.

And if you're talking about conference teams, that's even sillier. Except for 2007, we haven't won fewer than twice as many conference games as we've lost since 1996.

I thought it was understood that we were discussing "against good team/en route to a Final Four" scenarios, in which case I stand by my assertion that Duke's defense is not good enough to survive a poor shooting night against most good teams. The Virginia game is the only counterpoint, and they're offensively challenged enough to negate our poor D. How we fare against a collection of teams with a KenPom that averages in the mid-90's isn't particularly relevant to how we'll fare in then NCAA tournament.

Well, I stand by my assertion as well. Virginia, NC State, Miami, and Washington will all either play in the NCAA tournament or be on the bubble and be just as good as teams that play in the NCAA tournament. They are all the equivalent of a 2nd round, or even 3rd round tournament game.

[Jderf]

"Duke is the softest #1 seed ever."

I certainly hope so. The last time we had the softest #1 seed ever it seemed to work out pretty well.

[UrinalCake]

I thought it was understood that we were discussing "against good team/en route to a Final Four" scenarios, in which case I stand by my assertion that Duke's defense is not good enough to survive a poor shooting night against most good teams.

How many teams are there in the country that could have a poor shooting night and still beat a top-10 opponent?

[throatybeard]

How many teams are there in the country that could have a poor shooting night and still beat a top-10 opponent?

I dunno, depends on whether we're scoring by the half or the entire game.

[BD80]

We have played the top three teams in the Big Ten (2-1), the top teams in the Big 12, Atlantic Sun, Southern, and Atlantic 10 Conferences (3-1), and the second place teams from the Pac-12 (UW is a win out of 1st) and Ivy League (2-0). Even one of our "weak" opponents, Colorado State, is 4th in the Mountain West and making a push for the Tourney. Add two games against the other top ACC teams UNC and FSU.

Sounds like a pretty solid resume. A solid #1 seed.