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  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    We're 28-0 in my mind.

    Everything less than that is someone else's problem.
    Love it! Channeling your inner Ozzie!
    I certify that I personally composed this post entirely on its own merit (or lack thereof) without assistance of tutors, advisers, counselors or other outside sources or references. No credit is requested or received and no eligibility has been questioned (yet) with its submission.

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    No. One Seeds -- 8 Reduced to 5

    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Good summary. A couple changes that are admittedly nit-picky.

    I don't think we're officially guaranteed for a 1 seed if we win out. Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, and Ohio State all control their own destinies with respect to 1 seeds. I say I'm nitpicking because it is highly unlikely that both Missouri and Ohio State win out, and I suppose it's not impossible that the committee gives us the nod over win of these two teams anyway if all three of us win out. And this may be moot in two hours is Kansas beats Missouri. But the path is there.

    On the flip side, assuming we don't lose to Wake, I don't think losing to UNC and early in the ACCT drops us to a 3 seed. Our resume is too good. But if other things happen, I guess it's possible. So I'd add "with help" there.
    I posted this on another thread last week: There are eight contenders for #1 seed in five different conferences (Duke, UNC, Mich. State, Ohio State, Mizzou, Kansas, Syracuse and Kentucky). Assuming no one has a meltdown in the regular season (less likely now than a week ago), the candidates for #1 seeds will include Syracuse and Kentucky (whether they win their conference tournaments) and the tournament winners of the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, provided they are one of the top two contenders. With no upsets, one of the teams will have to settle for being the top-ranked #2 seed, but I would be surprised if there weren't an upset.

    sagegrouse

  3. #83
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by NYBri View Post
    #3
    Lose to Carolina and not make championship game in ACCT.
    Assuming we beat Wake and win our first ACCT game, I'd be very surprised if we drop as low as #3. Frankly, even if we lose our first ACCT game I'd be surprised, but I suppose it's possible.

  4. #84
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Assuming no one has a meltdown in the regular season (less likely now than a week ago), the candidates for #1 seeds will include Syracuse and Kentucky (whether they win their conference tournaments) and the tournament winners of the Big Ten, Big 12 and ACC, provided they are one of the top two contenders. With no upsets, one of the teams will have to settle for being the top-ranked #2 seed, but I would be surprised if there weren't an upset.
    Yeah, that's a good summary. And I think you can go to head-to-head matchups to decide which of the five gets left out. Duke is the odd team out if Mizzou and Ohio State are the other two, but gets a 1 seed if one of the other two (or both) are Michigan State, Michigan or Kansas. Based on head-to-head. Having that tough non-conference schedule could really pay off, even more than we thought.

  5. #85
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Mobile, Alabama

    Don't want to be rude

    It's threads like this that account for why these boards go into meltdown when we lose regular season games. Look, we still have a shot at winning the ACC regular season title. We still have a very good shot at winning an ACC Championship. The brackets are not even out yet, and we are debating final four. If you only measure success by final fours, you will be disppointed more seasons than not.

    We were a final four team last year and didnt get there. VCU was barely a tourney team and made the final four. This is way too early to start worrying about.

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Yeah, that's a good summary. And I think you can go to head-to-head matchups to decide which of the five gets left out. Duke is the odd team out if Mizzou and Ohio State are the other two, but gets a 1 seed if one of the other two (or both) are Michigan State, Michigan or Kansas. Based on head-to-head.
    I could be wrong, but it would surprise me if head-to-head were that big a factor. I'd only expect it to come into play if two team's resumes were essentially identical otherwise.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I could be wrong, but it would surprise me if head-to-head were that big a factor. I'd only expect it to come into play if two team's resumes were essentially identical otherwise.
    That's really my point. That the teams would be otherwise very close in resume - they'd be both fighting for the same seed line after all. So the head-to-head result would be a tiebreaker of sorts.

  8. #88
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    That's really my point. That the teams would be otherwise very close in resume - they'd be both fighting for the same seed line after all. So the head-to-head result would be a tiebreaker of sorts.
    You could be right. My understanding is the committee doesn't put nearly as much weight on early-season results, though, so I'm not sure how much it would ultimately matter.

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    You could be right. My understanding is the committee doesn't put nearly as much weight on early-season results, though, so I'm not sure how much it would ultimately matter.
    I don't think the beginning of the year is discounted so much as teams that finish strong get some bonus points. In the end none of us really know what the committee is going to do....they can explain individual decisions, but there doesn't always seem to be any pattern that can be applied universally.
    9f

  10. #90
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Good summary. A couple changes that are admittedly nit-picky.

    I don't think we're officially guaranteed for a 1 seed if we win out. Kentucky, Syracuse, Missouri, and Ohio State all control their own destinies with respect to 1 seeds. I say I'm nitpicking because it is highly unlikely that both Missouri and Ohio State win out, and I suppose it's not impossible that the committee gives us the nod over win of these two teams anyway if all three of us win out. And this may be moot in two hours is Kansas beats Missouri. But the path is there.

    On the flip side, assuming we don't lose to Wake, I don't think losing to UNC and early in the ACCT drops us to a 3 seed. Our resume is too good. But if other things happen, I guess it's possible. So I'd add "with help" there.
    No way.

    If both teams win out, I don't think Ohio State will be a #1 over us. Ohio State is currently ranked #9 while we are #4. The top 10 rankings generally approximate the top seeds. This says to me that we have Ohio State covered.

    I think probably the same holds for Missouri, with less certainty to be sure.

    - Chillin

    PS - Head to head is just too small a sample to weigh too heavily. The entire body of work says we are ahead of Ohio State.
    Last edited by ChillinDuke; 02-25-2012 at 10:19 PM.

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by ChillinDuke View Post
    If both teams win out, I don't think Ohio State will be a #1 over us. Ohio State is currently ranked #9 while we are #4.
    Both teams winning out necessarily implies that #6 Michigan State loses at least twice more, #7 UNC loses at least twice more, and at least one of #3 Missouri and #5 Kansas lose at least once more, in addition to the loss #3 Missouri already sustained. It also means Ohio State will have won the regular season and conference tournament of the toughest conference.

    Missouri lost today, so this doesn't really matter. But there's another possibility I hadn't thought of before that might still make it relevant. If Kansas, Ohio State, and Duke all win out, I don't know what happens. They all beat each other. KU and OSU played in better conferences, but Duke had a better non-conference schedule. It almost certainly won't matter since it's amazingly unlikely, but kinda fun to think about.

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