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  1. #41

    Tonight

    FWIW, no predictions -- I am terrible at predictions.

    But while I wouldn't hazard a guess to whether Duke wins or loses, I'd bet my car that the Blue Devils come out paying hard and focused (somerthing that don't always do this year). As DBR noted on the front page, this is the kind of game K lives for.

    The hardest thing to guess is how well FSU will play. Yeah, they'll play hard and they'll play good defense, but they are the most erratic offensive team in college basketball. Sometimes they make everything (against UNC and us for example). Sometimes they can't make anything (at home against Clemson and Va Tech; on the road at BC). How well FSU shoots will determine whether this is a classic or a stinker.

    One additional thought ... if Duke wins tonight, I expect them to come out lackadaisical and unfocused again Saturday against Virginia Tech at home. Probably not enough to cost them the game, but to make it more of a struggle that it should be. If Duke loses tonight, I don't anticipate the same problem.

  2. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    Yes. Do you realize that I was not being serious? Those are just the facetious remarks I hysterically scream at my television when either Mason or Miles decides to perform The Skyhook over a flashmob of defenders.

    While both have improved their inside scoring games considerably, namely Mason, I think they both underwhelmingly utilize the kick-out for open shots on the perimeter. And, with a slew of the finest marksmen the ACC has to offer dancing around our perimeter at any given time, it is a competitive advantage that we should try to maximize as much as possible. We still are going to get a lot of good three-point opportunities any time we play even without Brian Zoubek patrolling the paint, but we could get even better looks if our bigs began to place an added emphasis on the inside-out game. Aside from a lay-up or jam, the best shot in basketball is an offensive rebound cast out for an unobstructed three.

    Enter Andre Dawkins. Watch how many times he will be left standing alone on the perimeter tonight, flapping his arms like a pterodactyl, while one of our bigs (or even penetrating guards) fails to even acknowledge he's alive, and I bet it will surprise you. Or maybe it won't. It doesn't me. As I said, however, since the UNC game, we seem to be improving in this area. At least somewhat.


    This drives me crazy as well but I see it happen more with Rivers than our bigs. At least 3 times a game, Rivers will go to the rack and draw 2 or 3 defenders and Andre will be wide open in the corner or wing but Rivers attempts a tough layup. Now in Rivers defense, he usualy gets hacked and doesnt get the call but still Id like to see Andre get more shots. Once Rivers figures this part of his game out as he seems to be, Duke will be hard to guard because no team can keep Rivers out of the lane.

  3. #43
    Join Date
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    Quote Originally Posted by BluDvlsN1 View Post
    We need them on the court, out of foul trouble for a myriad of game situations!

    ...

    None of this is available if early foul trouble evidences itself with the bigs!
    Big key is, if both the Plum's can stay in a defensive stance, be in position to play defense with their feet and head, it will minimize the situations where there is a tendency to reach, poke, lunge for a unnecessary foul/s!
    It will make them available when they need to play tough on the inside w/o the handicap of previous unnecessary fouls!
    In fairness to Mason and Miles (especially Mason), the Plumlees really haven't been in that much foul trouble this season. Mason only averages 2.4 fouls per game (3.3 per 40 minutes), and Miles 2.1 fouls per game (4.5 per 40 minutes). Ryan has committed 2.2 fouls per game (3.5 per 40 minutes).

    Yes, they still commit the occasional needless foul and, yes, Mason and Ryan each had 4 fouls against FSU last time (Miles only had 1), but on the whole it has been a rare occasion when our bigs couldn't stay on the court because of foul trouble.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Massachusetts
    Is tonight's game the biggest (i.e most important / most hyped) regular season game for Florida State since they entered the conference?

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington, D.C.

    Absolutely

    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    Yes. Do you realize that I was not being serious? Those are just the facetious remarks I hysterically scream at my television when either Mason or Miles decides to perform The Skyhook over a flashmob of defenders.

    While both have improved their inside scoring games considerably, namely Mason, I think they both underwhelmingly utilize the kick-out for open shots on the perimeter. And, with a slew of the finest marksmen the ACC has to offer dancing around our perimeter at any given time, it is a competitive advantage that we should try to maximize as much as possible. We still are going to get a lot of good three-point opportunities any time we play even without Brian Zoubek patrolling the paint, but we could get even better looks if our bigs began to place an added emphasis on the inside-out game. Aside from a lay-up or jam, the best shot in basketball is an offensive rebound cast out for an unobstructed three.

    Enter Andre Dawkins. Watch how many times he will be left standing alone on the perimeter tonight, flapping his arms like a pterodactyl, while one of our bigs (or even penetrating guards) fails to even acknowledge he's alive, and I bet it will surprise you. Or maybe it won't. It doesn't me. As I said, however, since the UNC game, we seem to be improving in this area. At least somewhat.
    I knew you were not being serious, but I thought it was an awesome feat, comparing a single player to both George Mikan and George Gervin.

    Mason was pretty good at hitting Andre with passes from the interior last year. I suspect the renewed focus on low post scoring has caused him to sometimes go to the basket at all costs.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    FWIW, no predictions -- I am terrible at predictions.

    But while I wouldn't hazard a guess to whether Duke wins or loses, I'd bet my car that the Blue Devils come out paying hard and focused (somerthing that don't always do this year). As DBR noted on the front page, this is the kind of game K lives for.

    The hardest thing to guess is how well FSU will play. Yeah, they'll play hard and they'll play good defense, but they are the most erratic offensive team in college basketball. Sometimes they make everything (against UNC and us for example). Sometimes they can't make anything (at home against Clemson and Va Tech; on the road at BC). How well FSU shoots will determine whether this is a classic or a stinker.

    One additional thought ... if Duke wins tonight, I expect them to come out lackadaisical and unfocused again Saturday against Virginia Tech at home. Probably not enough to cost them the game, but to make it more of a struggle that it should be. If Duke loses tonight, I don't anticipate the same problem.
    Agree about the offensive inconsistency. This is a team that has failed to hit the 50-point mark three times this season. Getting Miller back seems to have helped. Still, they scored 48 points against VT last week. And won. That's not easy to do.

    If this game really does have 141 total points, I like Duke's chances.

    BTW, the FSU-Clemson game was at Clemson.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by 91devil View Post
    Is tonight's game the biggest (i.e most important / most hyped) regular season game for Florida State since they entered the conference?
    Probably. They won the Metro (regular season and tournament) in the years leading up to joining the conference but have never won the ACC regular season title or the Conference (tournament) championship. After us, they go to Miami and UVa before hosting Clemson to finish out.

    FSU has played higher-ranked teams before (us included) but I don't think they've been this far into the season with a tie for the lead in the conference if they win. Against another team that stays in the tie if THEY win.

    Should be a doozy.
    Twerp-free since July 1, 2014.

  8. #48
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    Mar 2007
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    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    One additional thought ... if Duke wins tonight, I expect them to come out lackadaisical and unfocused again Saturday against Virginia Tech at home. Probably not enough to cost them the game, but to make it more of a struggle that it should be. If Duke loses tonight, I don't anticipate the same problem.
    Another if-this-outcome-happens thought: if Duke loses tonight, then FSU chokes at Miami, scores like 6 total points against UVA, and Duke beats UNC to win the ACC regular season anyway.

  9. #49
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    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    Enter Andre Dawkins. Watch how many times he will be left standing alone on the perimeter tonight, flapping his arms like a pterodactyl, while one of our bigs (or even penetrating guards) fails to even acknowledge he's alive, and I bet it will surprise you. Or maybe it won't. It doesn't me. As I said, however, since the UNC game, we seem to be improving in this area. At least somewhat.
    I agree with your thoughts on Dawkins. He is 2nd in the ACC in 3 PT FG% at .407 and tied for 3rd in 3 PT FG's Made with 59, yet at times his teammates seem reluctant to pass him the ball. It's confusing and frustrating as I'd like to see Dawkins on the receiving end of more kickouts. Of course, in the spirit of full disclosure and fairness, I'd also like to see Dawkins working harder to get open by moving without the ball and coming off screens.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  10. #50
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    Mar 2007
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    Toledo
    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    I knew you were not being serious, but I thought it was an awesome feat, comparing a single player to both George Mikan and George Gervin.

    Mason was pretty good at hitting Andre with passes from the interior last year. I suspect the renewed focus on low post scoring has caused him to sometimes go to the basket at all costs.
    Haha, gotcha. Yeah, I imagine not many players in the history of the game have been been awarded that particular distinction. I guess it'd kind of be like the opposite of comparing a player to both Michael Olowokandi and Fennis Dembo.

    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    Mason was pretty good at hitting Andre with passes from the interior last year. I suspect the renewed focus on low post scoring has caused him to sometimes go to the basket at all costs.
    That is a good point. Hopefully, Mason is able to arrive at a happy medium, where he can both showcase his newfound repertoire of interior moves as well as exploit his uncanny ability to steal offensive rebounds to provide Seth, Dre and Austin with open opportunities.

  11. #51
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    Mar 2011
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    West CIS

    Good numbers!

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    In fairness to Mason and Miles (especially Mason), the Plumlees really haven't been in that much foul trouble this season. Mason only averages 2.4 fouls per game (3.3 per 40 minutes), and Miles 2.1 fouls per game (4.5 per 40 minutes). Ryan has committed 2.2 fouls per game (3.5 per 40 minutes).

    Yes, they still commit the occasional needless foul and, yes, Mason and Ryan each had 4 fouls against FSU last time (Miles only had 1), but on the whole it has been a rare occasion when our bigs couldn't stay on the court because of foul trouble.
    Hope I wasn't being unfair, wasn't my intention, cause they're good guys!

    What I was attempting to point out was, Some of it is the timing of the fouls and their ability to be on the floor at a given time!
    i.e. a couple of early 1st half fouls that do two things, alter minutes and change a mindset of what they can do inside without compounding the situation! Both situations affect the game!
    While the averages certainly point out the whole, it's the impact on the incremental at times that is important to the flow of the game!

    Bottom line, we need em when we need em! Which is pretty much, always!

    But as always Kedsy, you do great analysis!
    Let's go DUKE !!!!

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by dukeballboy88 View Post

    This drives me crazy as well but I see it happen more with Rivers than our bigs. At least 3 times a game, Rivers will go to the rack and draw 2 or 3 defenders and Andre will be wide open in the corner or wing but Rivers attempts a tough layup. Now in Rivers defense, he usualy gets hacked and doesnt get the call but still Id like to see Andre get more shots. Once Rivers figures this part of his game out as he seems to be, Duke will be hard to guard because no team can keep Rivers out of the lane.
    Agreed. Chris Duhon was the master at this. He could stop on a dime, mid-air and without looking, and find a pair of open hands waiting 25 feet from the basket. He could also stop and drop one from 25 feet, which is what made him so dangerous as a penetrator. In that sense, he was virtually unguardable. Now Duhon was obviously also a point guard -- I believe he's in the top 15 all-time in NCAA assists -- but, in having the same instinctive driving ability as Duhon, Rivers could certainly add that particular facet to his game and it would make him only that much more effective.

    Ah, Chris Duhon. My favorite for all-time. Really miss him.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I agree with your thoughts on Dawkins. He is 2nd in the ACC in 3 PT FG% at .407 and tied for 3rd in 3 PT FG's Made with 59, yet at times his teammates seem reluctant to pass him the ball. It's confusing and frustrating as I'd like to see Dawkins on the receiving end of more kickouts. Of course, in the spirit of full disclosure and fairness, I'd also like to see Dawkins working harder to get open by moving without the ball and coming off screens.
    As much as I love Dre, and you'd be hard pressed to find a more ardent supporter, I've thought this often as well. There are moments, lulls have you, where Dawkins, for as spectacularly pulsating as his game can be, is simply silent. Like he's not even there. It'd be interesting to watch more closely, to see if these lulls of inactivity tend to happen more often later in the game, after he's fallen tired of working so hard to break through a series of defensive walls intended to stop him only to rarely receive any type of reward. Because, at least from my perspective, there are times when Andre displays the artistry of Reggie Miller when moving without the ball. He's quite good at it. So good, in fact, that he still manages to make over two 3-point shots per game, despite the fact that many believe he isn't getting nearly enough looks.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Another if-this-outcome-happens thought: if Duke loses tonight, then FSU chokes at Miami, scores like 6 total points against UVA, and Duke beats UNC to win the ACC regular season anyway.
    Would that be a win or a loss?

  14. #54
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    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Would that be a win or a loss?
    Ha! Well played.

  15. #55
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    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    Enter Andre Dawkins. Watch how many times he will be left standing alone on the perimeter tonight, flapping his arms like a pterodactyl, while one of our bigs (or even penetrating guards) fails to even acknowledge he's alive, and I bet it will surprise you.
    Well you could also watch how many times Mason has both feet in the paint with his man sealed off, begging for the ball, while the guard ignores him and then jacks up a three. Ball movement is not one of our strong suits, but it's hard for me to fault the bigs when they get so few touches.

  16. #56
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    Toledo
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Well you could also watch how many times Mason has both feet in the paint with his man sealed off, begging for the ball, while the guard ignores him and then jacks up a three. Ball movement is not one of our strong suits, but it's hard for me to fault the bigs when they get so few touches.
    Fair point. As more of a guard-flavored fan of the game (being six-foot and all), I often tend to focus on our perimeter more than I maybe do other areas. Somewhere, there has to be balance. Hopefully we find it.

  17. #57
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    Agreed. Chris Duhon was the master at this. He could stop on a dime, mid-air and without looking, and find a pair of open hands waiting 25 feet from the basket. He could also stop and drop one from 25 feet, which is what made him so dangerous as a penetrator. In that sense, he was virtually unguardable.
    I was a Duhon fan during his time at Duke, but if he stopped and put one up from 25 feet, I cringed. He was a 32% career shooter at Duke from 3-point range, and his percentage went down the more 3-pointers he attempted (his most attempts were his junior year when he shot only 27% from three). So, in that sense, if you could force him to take an outside jumper, he was very guardable.

    Quote Originally Posted by Cameron View Post
    As much as I love Dre, and you'd be hard pressed to find a more ardent supporter, I've thought this often as well. There are moments, lulls have you, where Dawkins, for as spectacularly pulsating as his game can be, is simply silent. Like he's not even there. It'd be interesting to watch more closely, to see if these lulls of inactivity tend to happen more often later in the game, after he's fallen tired of working so hard to break through a series of defensive walls intended to stop him only to rarely receive any type of reward. Because, at least from my perspective, there are times when Andre displays the artistry of Reggie Miller when moving without the ball. He's quite good at it. So good, in fact, that he still manages to make over two 3-point shots per game, despite the fact that many believe he isn't getting nearly enough looks.
    I think you've hit it on the head. If Andre works to get open a few times and doesn't get fed, he sometimes appears to stop trying to get open.

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Well you could also watch how many times Mason has both feet in the paint with his man sealed off, begging for the ball, while the guard ignores him and then jacks up a three. Ball movement is not one of our strong suits, but it's hard for me to fault the bigs when they get so few touches.
    This isn't just true for our team, it's a symptom throughout college basketball. I probably would've come to blows with our guards by now if I established great inside position as often as Mason and did not consistently receive the ball. If we execute the inside out game effectively we can reach the final four; everything will open up for Austin, Andre and Seth.

  19. #59
    Will I be able to watch this on ESPN3 after it's over? I have a conflict.

  20. #60
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    Toledo
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy
    I was a Duhon fan during his time at Duke, but if he stopped and put one up from 25 feet, I cringed. He was a 32% career shooter at Duke from 3-point range, and his percentage went down the more 3-pointers he attempted (his most attempts were his junior year when he shot only 27% from three). So, in that sense, if you could force him to take an outside jumper, he was very guardable.
    I was referring more to his first two years in Durham. Duhon's percentages from three as a freshman and sophomore (36% and 34%, respectively) were above his career average, and he made almost 100 triples in those initial two seasons (98). If you go back and watch some of those games, Duhon (along with Jason, Mike and Shane) almost never shot a three from the location of the line. Usually, Duhon was more like three or sometimes four steps behind it. This obviously adds a degree of difficulty to the shot, thus causing for lower overall percentages. But because he had that ability to just destroy you when hot, the defenses (at least those first two years) had to extend their pressure to try and prevent it.

    There was a game against Wake in Cameron during his sophomore season that I'll never forget in which Duhon came down the court and just nonchalantly let one fly from almost midway in-between the arc and half-court. It was at the bare minimum a 30-footer. Skip Prosser called a timeout before the ball even hit the nylon and the crowd just lost it. We were so damn good that year it's almost too depressing to think about.

    Of course, as you said, Duhon's junior and senior seasons, while producing a few really good shooting nights here and there, left something to be desired. He tried that same Wake pull-up three in a game in Cameron against Georgetown as a junior, when he was shooting something like 18 percent from three at that juncture in the season, and it narrowly grazed the bottom of the rim. Dick Vitale then mumbled something about how he wasn't sure a half-court prayer shot is exactly what Coach K had in mind there.
    Last edited by Cameron; 02-23-2012 at 04:18 PM.

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