FWIW, no predictions -- I am terrible at predictions.
But while I wouldn't hazard a guess to whether Duke wins or loses, I'd bet my car that the Blue Devils come out paying hard and focused (somerthing that don't always do this year). As DBR noted on the front page, this is the kind of game K lives for.
The hardest thing to guess is how well FSU will play. Yeah, they'll play hard and they'll play good defense, but they are the most erratic offensive team in college basketball. Sometimes they make everything (against UNC and us for example). Sometimes they can't make anything (at home against Clemson and Va Tech; on the road at BC). How well FSU shoots will determine whether this is a classic or a stinker.
One additional thought ... if Duke wins tonight, I expect them to come out lackadaisical and unfocused again Saturday against Virginia Tech at home. Probably not enough to cost them the game, but to make it more of a struggle that it should be. If Duke loses tonight, I don't anticipate the same problem.
This drives me crazy as well but I see it happen more with Rivers than our bigs. At least 3 times a game, Rivers will go to the rack and draw 2 or 3 defenders and Andre will be wide open in the corner or wing but Rivers attempts a tough layup. Now in Rivers defense, he usualy gets hacked and doesnt get the call but still Id like to see Andre get more shots. Once Rivers figures this part of his game out as he seems to be, Duke will be hard to guard because no team can keep Rivers out of the lane.
Yes, they still commit the occasional needless foul and, yes, Mason and Ryan each had 4 fouls against FSU last time (Miles only had 1), but on the whole it has been a rare occasion when our bigs couldn't stay on the court because of foul trouble.
Is tonight's game the biggest (i.e most important / most hyped) regular season game for Florida State since they entered the conference?
Mason was pretty good at hitting Andre with passes from the interior last year. I suspect the renewed focus on low post scoring has caused him to sometimes go to the basket at all costs.
If this game really does have 141 total points, I like Duke's chances.
BTW, the FSU-Clemson game was at Clemson.
FSU has played higher-ranked teams before (us included) but I don't think they've been this far into the season with a tie for the lead in the conference if they win. Against another team that stays in the tie if THEY win.
Should be a doozy.
Eat Mor Jonny.
United States Navy (Retired)
What I was attempting to point out was, Some of it is the timing of the fouls and their ability to be on the floor at a given time!
i.e. a couple of early 1st half fouls that do two things, alter minutes and change a mindset of what they can do inside without compounding the situation! Both situations affect the game!
While the averages certainly point out the whole, it's the impact on the incremental at times that is important to the flow of the game!
Bottom line, we need em when we need em! Which is pretty much, always!
But as always Kedsy, you do great analysis!
Let's go DUKE !!!!
Ah, Chris Duhon. My favorite for all-time. Really miss him.
Will I be able to watch this on ESPN3 after it's over? I have a conflict.
I was referring more to his first two years in Durham. Duhon's percentages from three as a freshman and sophomore (36% and 34%, respectively) were above his career average, and he made almost 100 triples in those initial two seasons (98). If you go back and watch some of those games, Duhon (along with Jason, Mike and Shane) almost never shot a three from the location of the line. Usually, Duhon was more like three or sometimes four steps behind it. This obviously adds a degree of difficulty to the shot, thus causing for lower overall percentages. But because he had that ability to just destroy you when hot, the defenses (at least those first two years) had to extend their pressure to try and prevent it.Originally Posted by Kedsy
There was a game against Wake in Cameron during his sophomore season that I'll never forget in which Duhon came down the court and just nonchalantly let one fly from almost midway in-between the arc and half-court. It was at the bare minimum a 30-footer. Skip Prosser called a timeout before the ball even hit the nylon and the crowd just lost it. We were so damn good that year it's almost too depressing to think about.
Of course, as you said, Duhon's junior and senior seasons, while producing a few really good shooting nights here and there, left something to be desired. He tried that same Wake pull-up three in a game in Cameron against Georgetown as a junior, when he was shooting something like 18 percent from three at that juncture in the season, and it narrowly grazed the bottom of the rim. Dick Vitale then mumbled something about how he wasn't sure a half-court prayer shot is exactly what Coach K had in mind there.
Last edited by Cameron; 02-23-2012 at 04:18 PM.