Perspective

[Philadukie]

I just thought it useful to point out two specific examples from tonight that might help provide a little perspective about our team and season so far.

Missouri (#3) lost at home by 10 to a decent but unranked K-State team. G-Town (#9) lost to an unranked Seton Hall team on the road by almost 20. (Also, as I write this Michigan (#11) is losing to a very mediocre Northwestern team at the half by 7).

What I've often noticed in discussions about Duke (and not just this year, but over the past several) is that we fans, particularly after a loss, tend to magnify the flaws of our team while simultaneously magnifying the perceived dominance of other teams in comparison. "We'll never be able to compete with teams a,b,c becasue of fatal flaws x,y,z with our team." However, what we're really comparing our team against is, for the most part, some mythical dominant team that doesn't really exist. Many assume that there are 10 UNLV circa-1990 teams out there just waiting to eat our lunch in the tourney if we don't somehow fix all the things perceived as hopelessly wrong.

Syracuse and Kentucky this year notwithstanding, I don't see any teams that are better than Duke. The field is pretty much open for teams 3-15 or even 20. And even Syracuse and Kentucky have flaws (rebounding and youth respectively) that can be exploited in the right circumstances and match-ups.

All of this is to say that, whatever happens on Thursday, some perspective is in order as tonight's examples show. This team may (or may not) make a great run in the Touney. As it often does, it will depend greatly on match-ups and even a little luck. In the meantime, let's enjoy the ride! Go Duke!

[throatybeard]

Uh-oh.

Usually when someone starts a thread called "perspective," there is an avalanche of posts that lack any perspective, berating the OP for having some perspective.

[FerryFor50]

I just thought it useful to point out two specific examples from tonight that might help provide a little perspective about our team and season so far.

Missouri (#3) lost at home by 10 to a decent but unranked K-State team. G-Town (#9) lost to an unranked Seton Hall team on the road by almost 20. (Also, as I write this Michigan (#11) is losing to a very mediocre Northwestern team at the half by 7).

What I've often noticed in discussions about Duke (and not just this year, but over the past several) is that we fans, particularly after a loss, tend to magnify the flaws of our team while simultaneously magnifying the perceived dominance of other teams in comparison. "We'll never be able to compete with teams a,b,c becasue of fatal flaws x,y,z with our team." However, what we're really comparing our team against is, for the most part, some mythical dominant team that doesn't really exist. Many assume that there are 10 UNLV circa-1990 teams out there just waiting to eat our lunch in the tourney if we don't somehow fix all the things perceived as hopelessly wrong.

Syracuse and Kentucky this year notwithstanding, I don't see any teams that are better than Duke. The field is pretty much open for teams 3-15 or even 20. And even Syracuse and Kentucky have flaws (rebounding and youth respectively) that can be exploited in the right circumstances and match-ups.

All of this is to say that, whatever happens on Thursday, some perspective is in order as tonight's examples show. This team may (or may not) make a great run in the Touney. As it often does, it will depend greatly on match-ups and even a little luck. In the meantime, let's enjoy the ride! Go Duke!

I've said the same in several posts in post game and in game threads. Most people like to play chicken little, though.

[Lunchab1es]

Syracuse and Kentucky this year notwithstanding, I don't see any teams that are better than Duke. The field is pretty much open for teams 3-15 or even 20. And even Syracuse and Kentucky have flaws (rebounding and youth respectively) that can be exploited in the right circumstances and match-ups.

Speaking of, UK is currently down 13 at the half to Miss St. If the Bulldogs can pull this off, it would certainly do a good bit towards keeping that invincible aura of UK in check (and maybe even curtail the ego of UK fans on the ESPN message boards...nah!)

[barely]

Here's another (positive) view: when the regular season is over in a week and a half or so, we might well have beaten the regular season champs of the Big 10 (possibly the top two teams in the league), the Big 12, the Pac whatever, the Southern and the Atlantic Sun as well as the runners-up in the ACC (UNC, right?) and the Ivy. All this is reflected in our top 3 SOS and our RPI, but it is a another way to perspective on a very good season so far, a stellar season when measured against our talent and considering our lack of a classic PG, lack of a lockdown perimeter defender and lack of a long wing player to guard scoring small forwards. Notwithstanding his frustation at times, this might be one of Coach K's best coaching jobs.

Go Duke!

[Newton_14]

Here's another (positive) view: when the regular season is over in a week and a half or so, we might well have beaten the regular season champs of the Big 10 (possibly the top two teams in the league), the Big 12, the Pac whatever, the Southern and the Atlantic Sun as well as the runners-up in the ACC (UNC, right?) and the Ivy. All this is reflected in our top 3 SOS and our RPI, but it is a another way to perspective on a very good season so far, a stellar season when measured against our talent and considering our lack of a classic PG, lack of a lockdown perimeter defender and lack of a long wing player to guard scoring small forwards. Notwithstanding his frustation at times, this might be one of Coach K's best coaching jobs.

Go Duke!

I likely won't get the numbers exactly right on this so forgive me, but on the coaches show tonight, Wojo made the comment that something like 11 or 12 of non-conference opponents Duke has played this year is in the Top 3 of their league with a chance to win their league regular season crown. I think he said 11 or 12 but it was a high number either way. Wojo said it was the strongest schedule he could ever remember Duke playing. The current record is impressive no matter how you slice it.

[Newton_14]

I just thought it useful to point out two specific examples from tonight that might help provide a little perspective about our team and season so far.

Missouri (#3) lost at home by 10 to a decent but unranked K-State team. G-Town (#9) lost to an unranked Seton Hall team on the road by almost 20. (Also, as I write this Michigan (#11) is losing to a very mediocre Northwestern team at the half by 7).

What I've often noticed in discussions about Duke (and not just this year, but over the past several) is that we fans, particularly after a loss, tend to magnify the flaws of our team while simultaneously magnifying the perceived dominance of other teams in comparison. "We'll never be able to compete with teams a,b,c becasue of fatal flaws x,y,z with our team." However, what we're really comparing our team against is, for the most part, some mythical dominant team that doesn't really exist. Many assume that there are 10 UNLV circa-1990 teams out there just waiting to eat our lunch in the tourney if we don't somehow fix all the things perceived as hopelessly wrong.

Syracuse and Kentucky this year notwithstanding, I don't see any teams that are better than Duke. The field is pretty much open for teams 3-15 or even 20. And even Syracuse and Kentucky have flaws (rebounding and youth respectively) that can be exploited in the right circumstances and match-ups.

All of this is to say that, whatever happens on Thursday, some perspective is in order as tonight's examples show. This team may (or may not) make a great run in the Touney. As it often does, it will depend greatly on match-ups and even a little luck. In the meantime, let's enjoy the ride! Go Duke!

Great post. Someone give this man trident points. College hoops is a fickle deal these days. All teams have flaws, yet all have talent. Davidson wins at Kansas, yet Ohio St loses there. Boston College beats Florida State, yet Florida St beats UNC by 33 points. Think about that one for a minute. NC State wins at Miami, but Miami wins at Duke, but Duke wins at UNC who lost at Florida St by 33 (yes I said that twice on purpose ).

If you only read this board and did not know Duke's record, you would swear they are below .500 on the season, yet here they are at 23-4, with wins over UNC, Kansas, Mich St (all top 5 teams recently) with none of those wins in Cameron, and tied for the ACC lead. I know it works both ways, but they could easily be 25-2 and undefeated in ACC play.

These are crazy times. Like K always says, "Enjoy the journey". The "journey" is what it is all about. I have not even thought one second on March Madness yet. Will deal with that when it gets here. For now I am content to enjoy yet another Duke team that is winning games at a high rate. Winning 25+ games never gets old, and never gets boring. Nor should it.

Did I mention that Florida St beat UNC by 33?

[-bdbd]

I just thought it useful to point out two specific examples from tonight that might help provide a little perspective about our team and season so far.

Missouri (#3) lost at home by 10 to a decent but unranked K-State team. G-Town (#9) lost to an unranked Seton Hall team on the road by almost 20. (Also, as I write this Michigan (#11) is losing to a very mediocre Northwestern team at the half by 7).

What I've often noticed in discussions about Duke (and not just this year, but over the past several) is that we fans, particularly after a loss, tend to magnify the flaws of our team while simultaneously magnifying the perceived dominance of other teams in comparison. "We'll never be able to compete with teams a,b,c becasue of fatal flaws x,y,z with our team." However, what we're really comparing our team against is, for the most part, some mythical dominant team that doesn't really exist. Many assume that there are 10 UNLV circa-1990 teams out there just waiting to eat our lunch in the tourney if we don't somehow fix all the things perceived as hopelessly wrong.

Syracuse and Kentucky this year notwithstanding, I don't see any teams that are better than Duke. The field is pretty much open for teams 3-15 or even 20. And even Syracuse and Kentucky have flaws (rebounding and youth respectively) that can be exploited in the right circumstances and match-ups.

All of this is to say that, whatever happens on Thursday, some perspective is in order as tonight's examples show. This team may (or may not) make a great run in the Touney. As it often does, it will depend greatly on match-ups and even a little luck. In the meantime, let's enjoy the ride! Go Duke!

Hear, hear!

Great perspective, that will no doubt be lost on many the moment we fall behind in any game again...

This team has at least met expectations to date. We're tied for first in the ACC, beat NC@CH in dramatic, crushing fashion, and are ranked in the top-5 at present. Probably most importantly, at this point we are possibly in-line for a #1 seed in the NCAAT. Life is good.

Are there things that we can still hope to improve? Most certainly YES. But when has that ever NOT been the case? This season has been a good, entertaining "journey" so far. There's no reason these guys won't be one of a handful of favorites come mid/late-March to make the FF and a threat to win it all. Now, should we fall short of a NC, no doubt the "Chicken Littles" will be out in force once again... But I like where we are, overall, and where we seem to be headed.







Now about that darned Miss State collapse at the end vs KY...

[ricks68]

Now about that darned Miss State collapse at the end vs KY...

Are you referring to the way they lost their cool after being collapsed upon by the refs?

ricks

[uh_no]

Are you referring to the way they lost their cool after being collapsed upon by the refs?

ricks

That was atrocious....i don't think there's a better instance of the refs being influenced by the fact that UK is "supposed" to be better....

[ricks68]

That was atrocious....i don't think there's a better instance of the refs being influenced by the fact that UK is "supposed" to be better....

I try to honestly go along with the refs, as I do not know how they are supposed to call a game. Don Shula used to always say that if his team lost a game because of what was supposedly a bad call, then they didn't deserve to win, anyway. This game, however, appeared to have multiple bad calls against Miss State during the last half of the 2nd period. Miss State hung in there by continuously coming back after the bad calls-----a tremendous display of playing through it. But, in my opinion, the refs kept on doing it until a few of the Miss State players finally couldn't talke it anymore. As one attempted a layup, two Kentucky players smashed his arm and hand while almost pinning the ball against the backboard. (I played it back on my recorder) Kentucky came down with the rebound, and while the fouled Miss State played turned to the ref and complained, a Kentucky player ran past him and brushed his body against the Miss State player. Consequently, the Kentucky player "tripped" on the Miss State players leg, resulting in a technical foul call against the Miss State player. I think that was at least a four point turnaround with Kentucky having the ball possession again. I do not remember if the Kentucky player actually hit the floor, or was just "bumped" off stride (maybe someone could clarify this------and also comment on why an intentional "trip" would be called considering that the Miss State player wasn't even facing the Kentucky player at the time, and it appeared that the Kentucky player actually initiated the contact.), but it came across to me as an obvious payback for turning toward the ref in the first place. Interestingly, it also came across to me that when some of these serious calls went against Miss State, they were usually followed by an over-the-back call against Kentucky on the other end that didn't have an equal effect because Miss State had ended up with the defensive rebound anyway.

Just my two cents on this one. I don't like to get on the refs because I believe that the calls usually even out over time, and have always taken the Don Shula approach, myself, even when some people think that we lost a game because of the refs. I also believe that "it is what it is", and we should not be making excuses if we "think" calls go against us. This game, however, just seemed a little strange in the foul-calling department. Anyone else see it this way?

ricks

[bob blue devil]

i agree that duke is unquestionably a top 10 team and arguably a top 5 team - we've got as good a chance as anyone to make a run (with the exception of kentucky who looks a bit better than the field; and some would argue syracuse). we all should be happy with what this team has accomplished and where it stands.

however, i think a lot of the angst is that this team could just as easily pull an oh-fer for the rest of the season as do something special. oh-fer being no more wins vs. unc, no acc regular season "champ", no acc championship, no final four. these are the things we (at least i) care about. is it an unfairly high bar? absolutely. has it been met more often than not over the past decade +? you betcha. thankfully, to-date, the team has won every thing i care about and we've put ourselves in a good position - won maui, beat unc, co-leader of acc, arguably leader for an ncaa #1 seed (i'd love to have added some weeks at #1 in the polls, but that's getting super greedy).

so what drives that angst/why does it feel like we might not add any more notches to our belt? well, look at how we've done against at-large tourney caliber teams (particularly recent results, as teams have polished themselves and are closer to postseason form than preseason form):

11/15 - handled michigan state (they closed at end, but we controlled h2)
11/22 - handled michigan
11/23 - eeked kansas (behind with ~1.30 left)
11/29 - embarassed by ohio state
12/10 - handled washington (they closed at end, but we controlled)
------
1/4 - handled by temple
1/12 - won a tight one vs. uva
1/21 - lost at buzzer to fsu
2/5 - lost in OT to miami
2/8 - beat unc at buzzer
2/16 - miraculous comeback vs. state

it's basically a coin flip for the past 6. are we favorite to beat unc at cameron? no. are we the leader to "win" acc regular season? no (we've got the toughest remaining schedule). are we better than 50/50 to even advance to the acc title game? that's close and obviously depends on the draw, but involves 2 wins agains tourney caliber teams, so maybe not. are we better than 50/50 to advance beyond the sweet 16? again, maybe not (we'd need 2 wins over temple/uva/fsu/miami/state caliber or better teams).

i think this team is still improving - it's apparent in a lot of ways. that will be what really drives this team's ultimate outcomes and is very satisfying to watch. but when i think about adding notches to our belt, it will definitely require a meaningful step up (and/or some luck - i'm not proud i'll, take luck too).

[Kedsy]

it's basically a coin flip for the past 6. are we favorite to beat unc at cameron? no. are we the leader to "win" acc regular season? no (we've got the toughest remaining schedule). are we better than 50/50 to even advance to the acc title game? that's close and obviously depends on the draw, but involves 2 wins agains tourney caliber teams, so maybe not. are we better than 50/50 to advance beyond the sweet 16? again, maybe not (we'd need 2 wins over temple/uva/fsu/miami/state caliber or better teams).

Let me start by saying I loved your use of "eeked" as an active verb. However, since this is a thread about perspective, the things you say you want here are not particularly reasonable. Especially the last one. To be "better than 50/50" to win three games against tough competition, you have to be an overwhelming favorite. Every year Pomeroy publishes odds (based on his rating system) of each team advancing, and I've never seen more than two or three teams that have better than 50/50 odds of advancing beyond the Sweet 16. I suppose you can angst on whatever pleases you, but to be disappointed because we may not be one of the top two or three teams in the country seems to be setting an unrealistic expectation.

[bob blue devil]

However, since this is a thread about perspective, the things you say you want here are not particularly reasonable. Especially the last one. To be "better than 50/50" to win three games against tough competition, you have to be an overwhelming favorite. Every year Pomeroy publishes odds (based on his rating system) of each team advancing, and I've never seen more than two or three teams that have better than 50/50 odds of advancing beyond the Sweet 16. I suppose you can angst on whatever pleases you, but to be disappointed because we may not be one of the top two or three teams in the country seems to be setting an unrealistic expectation.

i think we're in general agreement - elite 8 is a worthy accomplishment despite the media making the final 4 a seemingly remarkably greater accomplishment. i originally had a simple 'no' instead of 'maybe not' for it being a 50/50 bet, but feared getting jumped on for being overly pessimistic, which i am not...

it might be interesting to turn this around a bit. let's say this team finishes fine by any reasonable measure - beats FSU, beats VaTech, beats Wake, but then loses to UNC at Cameron. meanwhile UNC beat UVa and Maryland, so we're #2 in the acc regular season. then we do okay in the acc tourney - beating, say, wake and avenging miami before losing to fsu (or even beating fsu, but losing in the title game), so no acc title. then, with a #2 seed in the ncaa tourney, we advance to the sweet 16, but lose there to baylor or georgetown. how would you feel? in the big picture, against any reasonable measure (including that of an elite basketball program), that's a very impressive season (30 wins no less, including many impressive scalps). but, gosh, it wouldn't feel that way.

my point was not that we (i) have reasonable expectations, it's that having 'perspective' is much easier said than done. it's fun to dismiss others for their lack of perspective, but i think any good duke fan lacks it to some degree.

[Kedsy]

it might be interesting to turn this around a bit. let's say this team finishes fine by any reasonable measure - beats FSU, beats VaTech, beats Wake, but then loses to UNC at Cameron. meanwhile UNC beat UVa and Maryland, so we're #2 in the acc regular season. then we do okay in the acc tourney - beating, say, wake and avenging miami before losing to fsu (or even beating fsu, but losing in the title game), so no acc title. then, with a #2 seed in the ncaa tourney, we advance to the sweet 16, but lose there to baylor or georgetown. how would you feel? in the big picture, against any reasonable measure (including that of an elite basketball program), that's a very impressive season (30 wins no less, including many impressive scalps). but, gosh, it wouldn't feel that way.

I am always disappointed when Duke loses, but honestly I'd feel fine in your scenario. I felt fine last year, even though the Arizona loss was a disappointment. It took me a couple days after our first round exit, but I even felt fine in 2007.

Perhaps it comes from my own student days. In my four years, we only had an appreciably better season than 2007 once out of four. But I rooted like crazy for the team, even when we finished 10-17 my senior year. I felt good about winning a couple games in the NIT my junior year. Compared to those years, a Sweet 16 finish is amazing.

I try to look at it this way: I invest myself in following the team and the players; no matter how they perform on the court, they provide valuable entertainment for me and give me something to get excited about. That's all I can expect from them. The wins and the titles and the accomplishments make it more fun, but are not requirements for my fandom.

[SupaDave]

The only perfect team I've ever witnessed was UNLV in 1990. They destroyed all comers. Those days aint coming back. If you can find a way to be upset about 4 losses after losing your team captains and starting point guard to the NBA draft then your "perspective" may be a bit out of wack. Those losses have made this team stronger without a doubt. It seems that many have settled down and bought in and now they are building on their roles (most noticeably Austin making sure Dre gets to shoot his 3 and the increased number of lobs to the bigs). I've got a good feeling about this team.

[Kedsy]

The only perfect team I've ever witnessed was UNLV in 1990. They destroyed all comers. Those days aint coming back. If you can find a way to be upset about 4 losses after losing your team captains and starting point guard to the NBA draft then your "perspective" may be a bit out of wack. Those losses have made this team stronger without a doubt. It seems that many have settled down and bought in and now they are building on their roles (most noticeably Austin making sure Dre gets to shoot his 3 and the increased number of lobs to the bigs). I've got a good feeling about this team.

Actually, the 1990 UNLV team lost 5 games, including 2 in the Big West. They almost didn't get past the Sweet 16, beating Ball State by just 2 points. They were far from perfect.

The 1991 UNLV team was a near-perfect team. Until they ran into Duke in the Final Four, that is.

The rest I agree with. I have a good feeling about this team, too.

[dyedwab]

and really helpful to me as I sort through what I think about this team. If you look at a the many mock brackets that are being put together by hoop head commentators, Duke regularly ends up as a 1 or a 2 seed. As a long time Duke fan, I think I know what a Duke #1 or #2 looks like and this team doesn't pass that eye test...even though they win. But then I look at all the other teams who could take their spot - and I think, well, they aren't really any better then us, and a lot of them are worse. So it makes sense.

I agree with the posters who say that this team is competing against our memories of great Duke teams/players of the past. But I would also argue that this team is competing against its own potential. We see sparks of greatness from almost all of our players sometimes, only to have them regress/disappear soon thereafter. I think the angst about this team has to due with inconsistency that we are not used to seeing.

that said, we also have talent that allows for a team to have a different hero every night.

Again incredibly useful perspective.

[SupaDave]

Actually, the 1990 UNLV team lost 5 games, including 2 in the Big West. They almost didn't get past the Sweet 16, beating Ball State by just 2 points. They were far from perfect.

The 1991 UNLV team was a near-perfect team. Until they ran into Duke in the Final Four, that is.

The rest I agree with. I have a good feeling about this team, too.

Oh you know who I meant!! That's just how unmistakably dominant that team was. Other than Florida's back to back I can't think of a recent team that's even come close to that standard. They WANTED UNC to be but we see how that has turned out.

I look at the ride Murray State is on - and wonder what the expectations are for that team. They are normally a one and done in tourney. Are they shooting for the second round? And is it a triumph of a season if so?

[Wander]

I look at the ride Murray State is on - and wonder what the expectations are for that team. They are normally a one and done in tourney. Are they shooting for the second round? And is it a triumph of a season if so?

Well, Murray's only been in the tournament once the past few years, and they beat Vandy in the first round (with some of the same players on the current roster). So if we have to put a benchmark for what a successful season is for them, it'd probably be Sweet 16.