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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Raleigh, NC

    Official Obsessing Over Other People's Brackets Thread

    Bracket Busters and number one seeds.

    Duke in the mix for a one seed,

    http://collegechalktalk.com/video/2.16.12video

  2. #2

    Our Chance of a 1 Seed

    Slim, in my view. We have to go 3-0 against Carolina, and Mizzou and Kansas have to play twice more and split them.

    The women have a better shot at a one seed. If we win out, we'll have a great SOS and be 4-3 against the top 10 (assuming Kentucky doesn't fall out of the top 10 after its shocking loss to Bama). Notre Dame probably has one more loss in them, and if it's a bad loss to UConn in the Big East tournament, we have an argument that we have a better overall body of work.

  3. #3

    Lunardi

    I wouldn't pay too much attention to Lunardi's musings on the top line ... he can't keep his own rules straight. Over and over, he insists that his bracketology postings are based on the current situation ... whereas he also states how he thinks it will end up. That's fine, but AT THE MOMENT he is wrong to list Kansas ahead of Duke on the one line.

    The two are very close -- so close that they are reversed in the two major polls -- the writer's have Kansas 4 and Duke 5 ... the coaches have Duke 4 and Kansas 5. Which do you think carries more weight with the commitee?

    But say the rankings cancel out. What's the case for Duke over Kansas:

    -- Duke has a better record 22-4 vs. 21-5 (against a tougher schedule)
    -- Duke has a better RPI No. 2 to No. 7
    -- Duke has a better overall strength of schedule (No. 2 vs. No. 6)
    -- Duke has a better non-conference schedule (No. 3 vs. No. 40)
    -- Both have exactly 4 wins vs top 25 and seven wins vs. top 50 (indeed, both are 4-3 vs. top 50; 7-4 vs. top 50)
    -- Duke has a better record away from home: 5-2 on the road; 5-0 in neutral environaments ... Kansas is 6-2 on the road and 2-2 on neutral courts

    Kansas does have a win over Ohio State (at home) vs. Duke's loss to Ohio State (at OSU) ... but the committee will factor that Sullinger didn't play in the Kansas game. Balancing that is the fact that Duke beat Davidson in Cameron, while Kansas lost to the Wildcats in Allen Field House.

    Of course, if a tiebreaker is needed, Duke beat Kansas head-to-head on a neutral court in Maui. Yes, it was early in the season and that will discount it some, but in this case, where everything is even or Duke is slightly ahead, that's got to be the determining factor.

    Interesting that in the linked video, Lunardi says the No. 1 factor for the committe is top 50 wins -- Duke and Kansas are dead even. He says the No. 2 factor is non-conference strength of schedule -- who you choose to play. There Duke has a big edge on Kansas (No. 3 vs. No. 40).

    Now, that's the situation TODAY. If the committee picked today, I'm confident Duke gets the fourth No. 1.

    But the selection is still almost a month away.

    I can't project how Duke and Kansas finish, but I will say this -- it's very hard for two teams in the same conference to get a No. 1 because at least one has to lose in the conference tournament. It's happened a number of times (Duke and UNC more than anybody), but it's tough.

    I'd say that right now, Kentucky and Syracuse are virtual locks for a number one seed.

    Ohio State has a strong chance, but they are just one game better than Michigan State in record and trail the Spartans in most rankings. Interesting that they finish up with Ohio State in East Lansing (Mich State has already beaten the Buckeyes in Columbus). To be a No. 1 seed, either OSU or Michigan State must win that last game, then win the Big 10 Tournament (and not lose anywhere else).

    The Big 12 has three candidates -- Kansas, Missouri and Baylor. Two of them necessarily lose in the Big 12 Toutrnament. Missouri alo has to go to Kansas in another week. Baylor doesn't have any of the top three contenders left (although they do have a game at erratic, but dangerous Texas on the road coming up).

    Personally, I hink one of these three will eventually earn a No. 1 seed, but not two of them.

    Finally, there are the two ACC teams. I say two because even though Florida State can still win the ACC, their early season stumbles takes them out of the mix for a 1 or 2 seed. Duke and UNC are pretty close -- Duke slightly ahead at the moment becauase of their win in Chapel Hill and their tougher schedule. But it's close enough that UNC could reverse that by beating Duke in Durham.

    For Duke to get a No. 1 seed, I think that have to do three things: (1) win the ACC Tournament. That is by far the biggest hurdle; (2) at least split with FSU and UNC; (3) win everything else.

    That would be 29-5 record and an ACC championship ... guys, that will be a No. 1 seed. Sweep UNC and FSU and lose in the ACC Tourney finals and it's possible, but less certain. Lose to FSU and UNC, then win the ACC and it's possible, but even tougher. Lose more than that and Duke will be a No. 2.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham at heart
    I would rather have Duke be a high 2 seed and play in Boston or Atlanta than the lowest 1 seed and get shipped to Phoenix for the regional.

    Discuss.
    WWJDD?

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by MulletMan View Post
    I would rather have Duke be a high 2 seed and play in Boston or Atlanta than the lowest 1 seed and get shipped to Phoenix for the regional.

    Discuss.
    Dissent - I would rather play the West 2 seed on the Moon than play Kentucky in CATlanta.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham at heart
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Dissent - I would rather play the West 2 seed on the Moon than play Kentucky in CATlanta.
    OK, but what about Cuse in Boston?

    If we are the low 1, then we're getting the high 2 anyway. Assuming that UK and Cuse are locks for a 1 seed, then the other possibilities are Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri and Kansas... and maybe UNC, right?

    So if we take the low 1, I would guess that would mean that UNC is a 2 seed. I doubt the committee pairs Duke and UNC as a 1 and 2 in the same region. I would guess that we'd be looking at Kansas or Mizzou as the top 2 paired with us in the West.

    I mean, I hear you on Kentucky and they are formidable, but I might be willing to take my chances, play closer to home, and maybe in a place with more Duke fan support.
    WWJDD?

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by MulletMan View Post
    OK, but what about Cuse in Boston?

    If we are the low 1, then we're getting the high 2 anyway. Assuming that UK and Cuse are locks for a 1 seed, then the other possibilities are Michigan State, Ohio State, Missouri and Kansas... and maybe UNC, right?

    So if we take the low 1, I would guess that would mean that UNC is a 2 seed. I doubt the committee pairs Duke and UNC as a 1 and 2 in the same region. I would guess that we'd be looking at Kansas or Mizzou as the top 2 paired with us in the West.

    I mean, I hear you on Kentucky and they are formidable, but I might be willing to take my chances, play closer to home, and maybe in a place with more Duke fan support.
    Duke fan support wouldn't matter in a game against Kentucky in the Georgia Dome, even a little. Not even worth considering.

    There really isn't such a thing as a "high 2." The Committee picks #1 seeds on merit, but geography dominates the placement of the #2 seeds. If Duke isn't a #1 seed, they'll probably be headed to Boston or Atlanta regardless of the much-debated S-curve.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Dissent - I would rather play the West 2 seed on the Moon than play Kentucky in CATlanta.
    Quick tangential question on that--by my map, Lexington is closer to St. Louis (339.9) than they are to Atlanta (380.3 mi). Since they get regional preference, why are they being slotted for Atlanta?

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    Quote Originally Posted by MulletMan View Post

    So if we take the low 1, I would guess that would mean that UNC is a 2 seed. I doubt the committee pairs Duke and UNC as a 1 and 2 in the same region. I would guess that we'd be looking at Kansas or Mizzou as the top 2 paired with us in the West.
    This will not happen. One of the Committee's principles is that the top 3 teams from any single conference must be placed in different regions.
    "I don't like them when they are eating my azaleas or rhododendrons or pansies." - Coach K

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham at heart
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Duke fan support wouldn't matter in a game against Kentucky in the Georgia Dome, even a little. Not even worth considering.

    There really isn't such a thing as a "high 2." The Committee picks #1 seeds on merit, but geography dominates the placement of the #2 seeds. If Duke isn't a #1 seed, they'll probably be headed to Boston or Atlanta regardless of the much-debated S-curve.
    You're not even entertaining the possibility that Kentucky could lose before that regional final match-up?

    And geography doesn't dominate the placement of the #2 seeds. That would favor the 2 over the 1 in some cases.

    And even if it did, Duke as a 1 is getting shipped to Phoenix... which would put you with Kansas or Mizzou.
    WWJDD?

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by kestrel View Post
    Quick tangential question on that--by my map, Lexington is closer to St. Louis (339.9) than they are to Atlanta (380.3 mi). Since they get regional preference, why are they being slotted for Atlanta?
    I believe they try to give geographic preference to the #1 seeds as a group; it's not dictated that the #1 team gets closest location by number of miles, then you go to #2, etc without concern for the other #1s. Since the St. Louis location would be better for potential #1 seeds like Mizzou, Kansas, and Michigan State, and the difference between Atlanta and St. Louis for UK is negligible, they'd rather help out those other #1s with geographic preference when it's basically the same for UK. Saving UK 40 miles on the trip and having the other #1 have to travel much farther is not preferred in the committee's mind. At least, that's my understanding.

    And geography always takes precedence over the S-curve for #2s, which is a bit annoying since we'd like be slotted in the same region as UK or 'Cuse, the clear top 2 teams right now. But things can certainly change and Ohio State or UNC could overtake us easily, which would push us to the Midwest or West. Also, I guess we're worrying about things way ahead of time - an Elite 8 matchup probably shouldn't be on the radar of the list of things that are concerning right now. If we get that far, I'll be happy for sure and who knows who the opponent would be as upsets occur all the time in the tournament.

  12. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by MulletMan View Post
    You're not even entertaining the possibility that Kentucky could lose before that regional final match-up?
    Of course it's possible. It's just less likely than an early departure for any of the #2 seeds.

    And geography doesn't dominate the placement of the #2 seeds. That would favor the 2 over the 1 in some cases.
    Which happens. A lot.

    And even if it did, Duke as a 1 is getting shipped to Phoenix... which would put you with Kansas or Mizzou.
    Who aren't nearly as good as Kentucky. So what's the downside?

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I wouldn't pay too much attention to Lunardi's musings on the top line ... he can't keep his own rules straight. Over and over, he insists that his bracketology postings are based on the current situation ... whereas he also states how he thinks it will end up. That's fine, but AT THE MOMENT he is wrong to list Kansas ahead of Duke on the one line.
    SOS numbers between Duke / KU are tight (Kenpom has KU with the #1 SOS overall). Tight enough that it's not really worth arguing over, but your beef should be with Missouri. Check out their non-conference schedule. It's easy to have just two losses when you don't play Kentucky, OSU, Georgetown, and Duke (as KU did). Or @OSU, Michigan State, and KU (as Duke did). Mizzou's biggest non-con wins were against Notre Dame, Cal, and Illinois.

  14. #14
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Cookbook Directions for #1 Seeds

    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post

    I can't project how Duke and Kansas finish, but I will say this -- it's very hard for two teams in the same conference to get a No. 1 because at least one has to lose in the conference tournament. It's happened a number of times (Duke and UNC more than anybody), but it's tough.

    .
    Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!

    The #1 seeds will be largely determined by the winners of the conference tournaments. The NCAA TSC ("fool's errand" notwithstanding) has always shown great deference to the results of the tournaments.

    Here's my take. There are the eight teams in the mix for a #1 seed:

    Big East: Syracuse

    SEC: Kentucky

    ACC: Duke and UNC

    Big 12: Kansas and Mizzou

    Big Ten: Ohio State and Michigan State

    I apply two rules. Harrumph! (Am I being pretentious enough yet? No? Just wait!)

    The candidates for a #1 seed must finish strong: no more than one loss prior to the conference tournament.

    Of they meet that criterion, 'Cuse and Kentucky are automatically #1 seeds, even if they lose in their conference tournaments.

    Of the remainder, those that win the conference tournaments are #1 seeds. This can produce five #1 seeds, in principle: Ky. 'Cuse plus the winners of ACC, Big 12, and Big Ten. But I expect there to be an upset in at least one tournament, or that one or more of the eight to have a bit of a meltdown in the regular season. But if not, here are your four #1 seeds and the top #2 seeds.

    Any questions?

    sagegrouse

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
    Location
    New Orleans, LA
    Quote Originally Posted by MulletMan View Post
    I would rather have Duke be a high 2 seed and play in Boston or Atlanta than the lowest 1 seed and get shipped to Phoenix for the regional.

    Discuss.
    Agree 100%

  16. #16
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    Duke fan support wouldn't matter in a game against Kentucky in the Georgia Dome, even a little. Not even worth considering.

    There really isn't such a thing as a "high 2." The Committee picks #1 seeds on merit, but geography dominates the placement of the #2 seeds. If Duke isn't a #1 seed, they'll probably be headed to Boston or Atlanta regardless of the much-debated S-curve.
    If duke is a 1 seed, there is no chance (as of now) that they are one of the top 2. RIght now all indications are that kentucky and syracuse will be in atlanta and boston. To stay on the east coast, duke has to be a two pretty much.
    9f

  17. #17

    Baylor takes a step back

    Baylor's fading chaces of getting a No. 1 seed took a major step back today with a homecourt loss to Kansas State.

    Not a terrible loss -- about the equivilent to our home loss to Miami -- but coupled with their other recent slips, it's going to make it really tough for the Bears to kep up with the other contenders.

    If you were to rank the No. 1 contenders right now (5:45 p.m. Saturday), they would be the last of eight teams with a chance to get a No. 1

    Near locks:
    Kentucky
    Syracuse

    Strong contenders
    Ohio State
    Michigan State
    Duke
    North Carolina
    Kansas
    Missouri

    Barerly hanging on
    Baylor

  18. #18
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA
    Lunardi includes Washington in his Last Four In and the Huskies reinforced their resume with a 79-70 win over Arizona today. Terrence Ross was superb with 25 points. Tony Wroten contributed 22. Next up for me is the Murray State (14)/St. Mary's (16) game.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  19. #19

    UConn

    Earlier today, Wichita State won a major bracket buster game at Davidson.

    Also today, UConn continues to play their way out of the NCAA field with a lackluster home loss to Marquette. The Huskies are now 16-10 overalll and 6-8 in the Big East. Two of their next three are on the road and the one home game coming up is against No. 2 Syracuse. They've lost six of their last eight.

    But as of Thursday, Lunardi doesn't have them in trouble. He still has them as a No. 9 seed. Gotta say, they're season looks an awful lot like UNC's 2010 NIT season.

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Lunardi includes Washington in his Last Four In and the Huskies reinforced their resume with a 79-70 win over Arizona today. Terrence Ross was superb with 25 points. Tony Wroten contributed 22. Next up for me is the Murray State (14)/St. Mary's (16) game.
    Washington would be a really, really scary opponent in the second round of the tourney for a lot of top seeds. I would want nothing to do with them.

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