Did all of ya'll catch the sneaky tribal council vote last night? I wrote about it in my WSJ blog post.
How did Kim get Jay to vote out Mike? I just cannot figure that part of it out. I understand that she had convinced Troyzan that Mike was plotting against him, but how did she convince Jay?But something strange happens in the post-show voting reveal. It turn out Mike was not voted out by an all-woman alliance. Instead Jay, Troyzan, and Leif all joined in voting Mike out while two of the women cast a pair of meaningless votes for Tarzan. Hmmmm. How did Kim convince the guys to turn on one of their own? What promises did she make to Jay, who is now the strongest man standing with Mike gone? There is stuff going on here that the show is not revealing to us. It may be that Kim is one of the best Survivor schemers of all-time and that she is trying to hide the female alliance from the guys. This show gets curiouser and curiouser.
And what was up with Christina and Alicia voting for Tarzan? Are they not part of what the other girls are thinking and plotting? A piece of me thinks that maybe Kim intentionally kept them in the dark in the hope that Jay and Troyzan would not realize an all-girl alliance was forming. Maybe the girls thought they needed to throw 2 random votes somewhere just in case Mike had an idol that he played. Considering Tribal Council produced an entirely expected result, I am utterly flummoxed at how that result came about.
-Jason "comment here and, if you feel like it, you can comment on my blog as well" Evans
Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!
Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
9F 9F 9F
Wonder if the guys left are having second thoughts on following Colton's plan to oust one of their own weeks ago?
-Jason "of course, Survivor always throws curves and larger alliances like this have not held together very successfully in the past" Evans
Oh Jay! I always knew you weren't the brightest bulb in the socket, but last night you flipped the switch and removed all doubt.
How could he not see that a blindside was coming? Did he not watch the reactions of the women during the immunity challenge. They all but admitted that the 6 of them were a pact. Then Troyzan (please don't call him Troy) basically figures it out, and goes to Jay to lay out at least a plausible solution, and Jay throws him under the bus by going to Kim. Stunning.
Watching it, I was trying to figure out if there was anyway that Jay and Troyzan could vote out a woman. In the end the votes were: 2 for Alicia, 2 for Troyzan and 6 for Jay. I guess not....though one could argue that Troyzan might have played smart and threatened the idol to get people to vote for Jay and then not played it....but alas, he didn't (and that would be a gutsy move that only Boston Rob and Russell would likely be able to sniff out).
So now my comments/questions are:
1) Troyzan is not long for this world. The next episode will be kind of boring. He'll either win immunity and survive, or lose it and be gone. I'm guessing the latter. He'll try to talk everyone into switching with him, but they won't. He's toast.
2) Why on Earth are Leaf and Tarzan voting with the women? Do they think they'll buy themselves some time? Maybe they hope that after Troyzan is gone, they can talk the Big 3 into voting out Alicia and Christine next? Which I doubt.
3) Is there anyway any alliance can come out that will knock out the Big 3 (that being Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina)? The history of knowing this show should show all the others that unless they make a move, this game will be determined by these three women. Shockingly the last few seasons have demonstrated that people don't really get this, or feel powerless to stop it. It doesn't help them that Kim has an idol (and they don't know that)....but still - now is the ONLY time for Christine, Alicia, Leif, Tarzan and Kat (or Troyzan) to turn on them and switch the power allegiance. The problem is that Kat won't turn, and Christine and Alicia just feel fortunate to be around still, as do Tarzan and Leif, which is why Troyzan goes next, and then suddenly it's the Big 3's game.
4) At some point Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina will realize that the three of them are the favorites, and one of them will turn and try to knock the other out. That stinks, because, truthfully they deserve to be in the Final 3 right now (them and Troyzan, who won't make it). The only other person that I think is close to deserving it is Leaf, which is why he'll go after Troyzan (those Big 3 are smart). In the end, someone like Tarzan, Christine or Alicia is going to make the Final 3, which will be ridiculous. They won't get any votes, and it will come down to whoever is left between Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina, with the third member being an undeserving jury participant.
First of all, I do my weekly pimping of my WSJ column if only to note that I called Jay being voted out 1 minute into the episode.
He literally did everything wrong in this episode:The episode starts with Jay saying he had a dream that he was getting shot. Can you say foreshadowing? Jay is getting voted out tonight… I am calling it right now at the start of the episode.
I did see something interesting in the vote reveal after Jay went home. Not only did Tarzan vote with the women, but Leif voted with Jay instead of with Troyzan. That is why we had 2 meaningless votes for Alicia instead of a somewhat united male front trying to take out Kim. I am not sure if this was because Troy did not have time to get to Leif or if Jay convinced Leif that Jay knew what was going on. If it is the latter, shame on Leif for not recognizing that Jay was a total fool.So, to recap, Jay had visions of himself being killed; then he talked about someone being blindsided; then he voluntarily dropped out of the immunity challenge; and finally he warned the very person who was plotting against him about a plot against her. He is so T-O-A-S-T!
I do see a path for the men to make a game of it. Of course, step one is to get all the remaining guys on the same page. Troy, Tarzan, and Leif need to stick together. I don't think they will, but that is what they need to do. Then, they need to approach Christina and explain to her that she is last-among-equals among the women. I think Christina will recall that she has been on the outs with the ladies in the past and would be receptive to being a part of a different alliance where she at least has a chance to get closer to the end. The tough one is finding one more vote. I think they should approach Alicia and promise to take her to the final 3. She is conniving and might respond well to a promise like that. They would need to be absolute and firm in their promise so she knows her move all but guarantees her an appearance in the final 3. They could also potentially approach Kat about a deal like this, but I don't think Kat would be very receptive.
That is how they could do it... but I don't think they will make that happen. I think Tarzan sees himself as part of the female alliance at this point and I think Alicia has such a huge ego she believes that she is running the show, not Kim, Steph, and Chelsea.
So, barring an immunity win, Troy is going home and then it could get interesting. All the men who could go on a long immunity run will be out and I could see some of the women trying to grab Leif and/or Tarzan to break up the female alliance. I am starting to think that Tarzan has an excellent chance of making it to the end as everyone will want to sit next to him because he has been annoying and is barely coherent at Tribal Council making him someone not likely to win too many votes at the end. Blech! I hate this aspect of Survivor!
-Jason "FWIW, Probst says he never would have taken the Chicken Wings!" Evans
Well, ole Troy tried to play your scheme, Jason. I think he screwed up on it though. If he had told them, "Listen, no one likes me, Tarzan could have co-starred in "One Flew Over the Cuckoo's nest", Leif hasn't done a thing all year so if you joined us and got to the final 3, you guys would have a much better shot at this than you do with those 4 girls. Secondly, if you DON'T do this, you're gone after the Leif, Tarzan and I have been eliminated." So basically we're left with 2 more guys and then they feed on their own, meaning Christina and Alicia will follow. I still think people should backdoor Kim ASAP or she wins this and wins it easily.
I loved seeing Troy lose it last night! What a nut. There's no way he can infiltrate any alliance now so why not go out with guns a blazin...
Letting Colton talk them into voting out one of their own should have told us something early on, these guys are a band of idiots.
No soup for you!
I don't really blame Christina and Alicia for not trying to make a move with those guys. The guys have made so many stupid moves this season, I don't think they could find the ocean if they were standing on the beach. Tarzan doesn't even vote with the guys. I also think there may be too much bad blood between Alicia and Christina for them to trust each other enough to pull a blindside off.
Decent scramble effort from Troy last night. He is a pretty good player - obviously strong in challenges and understands the alliances and pecking order, but something seemed missing when he tried to explain to others. He had the argument right, but was not nearly convincing enough.
One question - do they keep the auction cash they don't spend? Tarzan seemed to think he was going to spend it at home (which is a bit odd for a surgeon to have to save up $500 for car repair). Thought for sure Probst would throw the cold bucket of water on that idea but he let it ride.
Hard to see how Kim could lose at this point - she has played a great game, even killing it in the auction last night. Not to jinx her, but might be one of the all time dominating efforts we are seeing.
It will be interesting to see if Kim's dominance of the strategy leads Steph and Kat to distrust her. I get the impression that Kim and, to a lesser extent, Chelsea are running things. It might not be insane for Stephanie, who seems pretty sharp and strategic, to figure out her best chance is to take some of the lunatics (Tarzan, Christina, and Alicia) with her to the end.
So, once they vote out Troyzan -- which takes us down to 7 remaining contestants -- Steph could make a strong move allying herself with 3 weak players to get rid of Kim, Chelsea, and probably Kat.
I think Troy's attempts to get allies and break up the women will fall on deaf ears at this point. With 8 players left, it is too hard to get 4 folks to turn. Also, Troy's challenge dominance is going to scare people off. Now, if he can last one more elimination, and get it down to 7, he may be able to be part of a convenient scramble. He probably needs to make some "I will take you to the end, no matter what!" promises to make it happen, but I think he has a chance... if he can get through one more week.
By the way, it was impressive that Kim did not play her hidden idol this week with Troy openly talking about his plan to take her out. I think Chelsea is the only person who knows about Kim's idol, but Kim must have been supremely confident that the votes would go exactly as she planned for her to not play the idol this week. She is truly in control.
-Jason "by the way, if anyone wants an episode recap, they can read mine here -- I was shocked that Kim did so well in the auction... why was everyone saving their money?!?!" Evans
There is always stuff that isn't shown on TV that must be going on.
Troyzan was right...Kim, Kat, Steph and Chelsea are running the show - especially Kim, Chelsea and Stephanie.
But, what they aren't showing is the conversations going on with Christina and Alicia. Kim is likely telling them that she and Chelsea will take them to the Final Four. She's obviously telling Tarzan the same thing. She may have told people that she has an immunity idol. Who knows. But this was the ONLY week when the five on the outside could have made a play to take out those four women...and they didn't. It always seems to work that way. In some order now the next to go will be Troyzan, Tarzan, Christina and Alicia. I can see no scenario where Kim, Steph or Chelsea don't win. And all three would be a deserving winner.
Troyzan is likeable, but he went nuts this episode. Screaming and yelling is a little silly. I think the lack of food is going to his head.
You have to give credit to the girls for splitting the vote like they did. That's smart playing. Also, Kim has the idol and nobody knows about it except Chelsea. They are going to play it one day and stomp a rebellion (if it comes)....
This is not the week for the group outside the top 3 to flip. It's next week. I think Kat could be the least intelligent person to be on Survivor (what's in a BLT?) so it may be hard for Alicia, Christina and Tarzan (assuming Troyzan goes this week) to convince her that the time to change the game is when there are 4 vs. 3. Also, it will be interesting to see if Alicia and Christina make a move together because earlier in the season Alicia was unbelievably rude to Christina. I'm also curious to see if Kim ever plays the idol or needs to. I will be extremely disappointed if Alicia, Kat and Christina go down without trying to shake things up. They have to know that they are at the bottom of the totem poll and they easily can turn that around by joining forces with Troyzan - Tarzan could be another story because the votes show he is closely tied to Kim - which requires some explanation we haven't seen.
Singler is IRON
I STILL GOT IT! -- Ryan Kelly, March 2, 2013
Yes, sorry Sabrina (not Steph). Either she, or Kim or Chelsea should win.
And agree that Christina and Alicia should form with Tarzan and someone else and get rid of the dominant three....but I don't see it happening. Kim is smart....you know she's been telling one of them: "Stick with me, and I'll take you to the final three." It's probably been Tarzan. In fact, I bet the next vote will be Troyzan, and then Alicia or Christina. Once that happens, everyone else's fate is sealed.
And yes, Kat is not the brightest bulb. My favorite moment was when she was worried that appendicitis was contagious (after, of course, not knowing what it even was). Seriously, how can a 20 year old not know that? Seriously?
A couple comments --
First, I think Alicia has shown time and time again that she is arrogant and thinks quite highly of herself. While we may all see her at the bottom of the totem pole, I am sure she thinks she is in charge and running the game. She probably thinks she, Kim, and Chelsea are the final 3 -- or something like that. Convincing her to betray those folks may be next to impossible. What's more, approaching her with a plan could easily lead to that plan being revealed to her "alliance allies" such as Kim.
Second, I don't think a Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina final 3 is as foregone a conclusion as it may appear. We are reaching the point in the game where "who are you sitting next to at the end?" becomes a major factor in the vote-outs. I won't be at all shocked if one of the three power-players (especially Sabrina or Kim, who seem the most strategic) starts trying to count votes and figure out who the best people are to sit next to. Suddenly, someone abrasive and arrogant like Alicia or a lunatic like Tarzan become fairly attractive.
-Jason "I wonder if last week's vote, where he was the backup to Leif just in case Leif or Troyzan played an immunity idol, will wake Tarzan up to the fact that he is not as tight with the women as he thought" Evans
I think the odds that Kim, Chelsea and Sabrina are in the final three is pretty low, actually. But I definitely think one of them will (and should) win. I hope all three make it, because it would be great to actually have a final three with the three (by far) strongest players, but that has never happened. Plus, the last immunity challenge could see the 4th person win.
JE - good point about Tarzan. But it's too late now. As you said, Alicia will not flip. Period. So best that could happen is Troyzan, Christina, Tarzan and Kat. But Kat won't flip either. Troyzan is gone this week unless he wins immunity. If he does, then it's likely Tarzan.
Then next week becomes the last possible move by the non-three. Kat, Tarzan/Troy, Alicia and Christina could join forces and take down one of the top three. But I don't think Kat will flip, and Kim still has the immunity idol, so they will likely squash any rebellion.
From the can't make this up file:
"Christina's IQ is probably a zero. I don't even know if that even exists. I'm a special ed teacher..." - Alicia