MBB: Duke vs. NC State (Feb 16, 2012) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[JBDuke]

The Wolfpack comes to town on Thursday. Pre-game and in-game discussion goes here.

[AIRFORCEDUKIE]

N.C.State really need a signature win. They will be ready to play. Also concerned about Dukes track record against former coaches, who are former ESPN analysts, and are now coaches again. Like the Johnies last year. Its on ESPN3, is it a Raycom broadcast in ACC markets? I live in Florida.

Checked raycoms TV listing, but not posted yet. It said TV listings coming soon.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Coach K is under the weather and called in sick rather than appear on the radio this morning for the fund raising Radiothon going on for the Duke Children's Hospital. When he called in to Adam Gold's show yesterday afternoon they mentioned he wasn't feeling well and he sounded a bit "husky".

Get well soon, Coach.

[COYS]

This game will be strength against strength. Both NC State and Duke are better on the offensive end than they are on the defensive end. The difference is that Duke is way better on the offensive end than the Pack. NC State has some athletes that could give Duke trouble, but I expect Duke to have a relatively easy time scoring the ball. Obviously, nothing is given, but I think the deciding factor as to whether or not this will be a nail-biter or an easy win will be determined by how well we can play defense. If we can play at the level we played against Maryland, then we should be able to put the Pack away by the end of the game. If we give the them a few open shots and they start feeling it, we will could be looking at another hard fought victory. It will be up to our defense to determine how tough this game is going to be.

[Kedsy]

Obviously, nothing is given, but I think the deciding factor as to whether or not this will be a nail-biter or an easy win will be determined by how well we can play defense.

We could say this about most of our games.

[tbyers11]

N.C.State really need a signature win. They will be ready to play. Also concerned about Dukes track record against former coaches, who are former ESPN analysts, and are now coaches again. Like the Johnies last year. Its on ESPN3, is it a Raycom broadcast in ACC markets? I live in Florida.

Checked raycoms TV listing, but not posted yet. It said TV listings coming soon.

Here is the list of affiliates carrying the Duke/NC State game on Thursday night.

[UrinalCake]

For the TV-less folk, the game will be streamed online here. I've found their quality to be much worse than ESPN3, but you take what you can get.

[RoyalBlue08]

Very excited not to have to listen to Mike Patrick/Len Elmore for this one.

On paper, I like the matchup. I think the key will be if we can match the intensity I expect they will bring to this game.

[PackMan97]

Feb 6, 1988. I doubt that will change to Feb 16, 2012.

[Saratoga2]

I am hoping MIles will build on the great performance in the Maryland game. Fingers crossed on that one. With Curry, Austin, Mason and Ryan all playing good ball at this juncture, I am particularly interested in whether Andre can up his offensive performance. With all our offensive weapons operating well and our defense coming along, we are tough to beat.

[Greg_Newton]

State has a very solid but undersized frontcourt; Howell is an absolute bull in the paint but is closer to 6'6 than his listed 6'8, and Leslie is a freakishly long but scrawny 6'8. Leslie also doesn't exactly have a Lance Thomas-esque motor, but he's really improved his scoring this year. I think we could have some issues guarding him one-on-one, much like we did DeShaun Thomas, but Mason should be able to go to work on whoever they put on him.

Miles vs. Howell could be a great heavyweight battle - they both play a similar, bruising style of ball that leads to ridiculous rebounding numbers when they're "on", so it will be interesting to see if Miles can come out on top.

I'm a little worried about their backcourt. They check in at 6'5-6'5-6'7, with Brown and Williams both very good penetrators and mid-range shooters. We should be able to contain Wood, as his height advantage is somewhat negated by his low release point, but Brown and Williams will be a formidable challenge for our guards. Brown will likely be the most potent combo of size/quickness we'll see at PG this year (with the exception of UW's Wroten, who torched us).

I'm more interested to see how we look than how we handle the matchups, though. You like to get to a place where you're good enough as a team to handle "bad" matchups, and I'd like to think we're getting closer to that place.

[davekay1971]

I've watched almost as much State as Duke this year and cheer avidly for the Pack (as long as they aren't playing Duke). So, for what it's worth, here's my breakdown:

Point Guard: Lorenzo Brown has had a very good season and has adjusted well to the PG role. By and large he's been a heady player. He's not the spectacular passer that Marshall is, but he's a good penetrator, a strong finisher, and he USUALLY makes very few mistakes. That being said, he is prone to stretches of bad play, usually when he's trying to force things. His assist-to-turnover ratio is just over 2:1. Key to our defense will be keeping him out of the lane. He's a mediocre 3 point shooter (32% on the season).

Wings: In many ways, CJ Williams has been the Pack's best player this year. He plays smart, tough basketball. He's the kind of kid that K loves. He sticks to high percentage shots and does a great job of taking what the defense gives him. He plays nicely within the team concept and rarely makes big mistakes. Scott, as we all know, is a phenomenal 3 point shooter. When Lowe was coaching, Scott seemed to have problems getting clear looks, and he can't really create his own shot. Under Gottfried, Wood is being moved off screens and is getting clear looks. When he does that, he's a 6'9" sharpshooter with a quick release, and he can score points in a hurry.

Inside: Howell has done a phenomenal job sculpting his body for the season. He's fit, active, and has turned into a load inside. You could see the potential last year. This year he's reached it. He's shorter than the Plumlees, but he's strong and can finish around the rim. Leslie is still Leslie. By that, I mean he's a great physical talent and a bit of a head case. He can get lazy and fade out of the game. He tends to make some mistakes and waste possessions. BUT, he's made a huge improvement compared with last season. He's a better rebounder and seems much more willing to play within the offense. Gottfried has clearly gotten through to Leslie, and Leslie's listening and learning. Look out for him next season...you can almost sense the kid's going to take a huge leap forward.

Bench: State's thin. Painter has dramatically improved his game and has a nice mid-range jumper. He's not the beast that Howell is inside, but he's a serviceable body on the boards. Johnson is State's back-up PG, and the fall-off from Brown is pretty steep. Johnson's not a bad player, but he doesn't scare you either. Vandenburg and DeThaey get some minutes and generally are best described as raw but productive.

Overall offense: State has weapons and is using them more efficiently this year. They share and have had 5 guys in double figures most of the season. They don't rely heavily on the 3, but Wood and Williams can both hit the 3 (Wood being excellent). They play inside-out for the most part, which is one reason they struggled so badly against Carolina. They do like to run if they get the chance, and they finish well. They don't panic or go to every-man-for-himself basketball when things get tough like they did under Lowe. Their offense is pretty good (KenPom rank 42) but not unstoppable by any means.

Overall defense: As noted earlier, they're weak. Kenpom has them ranked 99 on defense, putting them a little worse than us right now, but basically in the same ballpark. It doesn't seem to be a lack of effort - they look like they're trying much harder on defense this year. I think they just don't have the athletes. Wood is a smart player, but lateral quickness ain't exactly his strong suit. Same with Williams. You can penetrate the lane on State. They have some mental breakdowns. They are going to have a very hard time stopping our team from scoring.

Critical matchups:
1) Keeping Brown out of the lane: expect Thornton to draw Brown a lot. Brown isn't a great outside shooter, so keeping him on the perimeter is key to preventing State from getting easy baskets. I'd tell Thornton to sag back a little until Brown proves he can hurt us from out there. He can be streaky, though, so if he's hitting, you have to get up on him.

2) Wood: Tough matchup for Duke. Much easier for us last year when we could put Singler on him. None of our primary 3s is nearly as tall as Wood, and he's going to get some looks shooting over our guys. It'll be important to be right up on him when he catches, because he's developed a VERY quick release this year.

3) Howell: we've seen big bruisers have some success against us. If Howell's getting buckets inside, it makes the night much longer. Miles and Mason need to eat their Wheaties and come out ready for 40 minutes in the octagon.

4) Leslie's the wild card. He's got enough athleticism to give Kelly fits...if he's in the mood to play his best game. Leslie has just as much chance of pulling a 40 minute disappearing act. On the other end, Kelly could have a field day if Leslie's playing lazy D. I just have no idea (and I expect Gottfried doesn't either) which Leslie will be on the court.

5) State's D on our perimeter: Rivers should be able to get into the lane. If he's on at all, State does not have a guy who can shut him down. If he's on like he was against Carolina, he could set a new career high for himself. State is going to have trouble with our perimeter. Curry and Dawkins, if they play actively away from the ball, can get open looks against State. Whoever has Wood on him should also look to penetrate. Wood is not quick enough to keep up with Rivers or Curry...or, frankly Dre.

I don't mean to ignore Williams...I have a feeling he's having such a good season largely because everyone forgets about him. He's like the John Paul Jones of the Pack - gets no attention but he's the reason they're having so much success. Dawkins, Curry, Rivers...whoever's on him better not forget about him trying to help out on Wood or Brown, because that's when Williams is particularly good at sticking in a 3 point dagger.

So that's the breakdown. Duke should win this game...but State really is a much better team than last year.

[Greg_Newton]

Thanks for that - but where are you getting that Wood is 6'9?

He's listed at 6'6 and has looked more like 6'6-6'7 to me. Throw in the fact that his release point is roughly at his forehead, and I hadn't thought that he'd really be much of a threat to simply shoot over our 6'2 brigade. But maybe I'm wrong if he's really 6'9...

[davekay1971]

Thanks for that - but where are you getting that Wood is 6'9?

He's listed at 6'6 and has looked more like 6'6-6'7 to me. Throw in the fact that his release point is roughly at his forehead, and I hadn't thought that he'd really be much of a threat to simply shoot over our 6'2 brigade. But maybe I'm wrong if he's really 6'9...

My bad on his height listing. My error completely. However, he's improved both the quickness of his release and his release point...two important reasons his scoring average has improved this year. I am concerned that his height advantage over our perimeter could help him get good looks. If our guys can stay right on him through screens and be in his face when he catches the ball, he will be limited.

[PackMan97]

Vandenburg and DeThaey get some minutes and generally are best described as raw but productive.

Vandenburg is red-shirting this year with a bad shoulder. De Thaey is indeed raw and usually only sees minutes when State's front court gets into foul trouble.

The only other issue I take with your post is that you don't give Calvin Leslie enough credit for a change in attitude. He still has lapses and is far from perfect, but he's playing so much better this season. In our home loss to GT at the end of the game when it was no longer in doubt, Leslie was still in the game and dove on the floor after a loose ball (a play he'd never make last year, let alone in a game we lost). Calvin was asked about the play after the game and his answer was basically "Coach told us how we play in the last few minutes will set the tone for the next game so get out there and play hard". Of course the next game was our 36 point thumping of Wake Forest. Calvin has a lot of bad habits to unlearn, but he's getting there.

[davekay1971]

Packman97:

Thanks for the correction on Vandenburg. I had completely forgotten that.

Sorry I didn't emphasize enough my own appreciation of Leslie's improvement. To my eyes, I still see those bad habits and still see an enormous amount of untapped potential. But, you are absolutely right, he has made significant improvements in all areas of the game compared to last year, most of all attitude and willingness to work for the team's benefit. Like I mentioned (buried deep within an overly long post), look out for him next year. I see almost no chance of Leslie making the mistake of going pro after this year (it would be a huge mistake for him), and given the improvements he's made this year, he could be a beast next year.

[-jk]

I'll keep beating my drum: Defense - at least the way K teaches it - is not about individual matchups.

Defense is a collective team effort. Clearly communicate a pick and the resulting hedge or switch so it's seamless in execution. Acknowledge the offense always has the initiative - you won't stop every player but you can break up the play by steering them to where you want them, away from the basket, into help, off to a sideline. Cover from the weak side whenever someone helps. Defend the passing lanes. Overplay within reason. All to confound their team into a bad pass or shot, or at least a less good pass or shot.

These are the keys. Not whether our wing can stop their wing (though that's always a nice weapon).

We contained Stoglin - the NCAA's 7th and ACC's top scorer - not with a good guard matchup, but by steering him into trap after trap and bad shot after bad shot. And it really got into his head. That's Duke defense.

-jk

[BluDvlsN1]

I'll keep beating my drum: Defense - at least the way K teaches it - is not about individual matchups.

Defense is a collective team effort. Clearly communicate a pick and the resulting hedge or switch so it's seamless in execution. Acknowledge the offense always has the initiative - you won't stop every player but you can break up the play by steering them to where you want them, away from the basket, into help, off to a sideline. Cover from the weak side whenever someone helps. Defend the passing lanes. Overplay within reason. All to confound their team into a bad pass or shot, or at least a less good pass or shot.

These are the keys. Not whether our wing can stop their wing (though that's always a nice weapon).

We contained Stoglin - the NCAA's 7th and ACC's top scorer - not with a good guard matchup, but by steering him into trap after trap and bad shot after bad shot. And it really got into his head. That's Duke defense.

-jk

This is what we've be struggling with all year, have strong offensive individuals learning how to play strong man to man D, and still understand team defense principles!

We have shown flashes of putting it together, then with a letdown! It has roller coastered a bit!

We have had lots of discussion about traps, it seems when we do it, it is very effective, and it is happening more!
I think it energizes the team as a whole and creates a focus on that defensive set!

If you still have the nc game on que, look at the 1st two minutes, and focus on Mason and his intensity,
Then look at the 1st points Zeller gets in the game, MP2 has Zeller on top, Zeller floats down the right side of the key,past MP2 and Kelly, no communication, Kelley doesen't switch MP2 drops off, Marshall finds an open Zeller on the baseline!
Just an example of what your saying, there were other examples of the positive , Austin on the weak side D, stripping the bigs blindside when they brought the ball down, MP2's steal and quite a few more,but you get the idea!

Communication both vocal and eye are key, they are getting it in spurts, It just seems that when they trap more there appears to be more focus on that defensive set!

Thoughts?

[gumbomoop]

I'll keep beating my drum: Defense - at least the way K teaches it - is not about individual matchups.

Defense is a collective team effort. Clearly communicate a pick and the resulting hedge or switch so it's seamless in execution. Acknowledge the offense always has the initiative - you won't stop every player but you can break up the play by steering them to where you want them, away from the basket, into help, off to a sideline. Cover from the weak side whenever someone helps. Defend the passing lanes. Overplay within reason. All to confound their team into a bad pass or shot, or at least a less good pass or shot.

These are the keys. Not whether our wing can stop their wing (though that's always a nice weapon).

We contained Stoglin - the NCAA's 7th and ACC's top scorer - not with a good guard matchup, but by steering him into trap after trap and bad shot after bad shot. And it really got into his head. That's Duke defense.

-jk

I like this, as it gives concrete examples of K's emphasis on "attention to detail." In close games, every play counts. In most plays, several little details count.

[PackMan97]

We contained Stoglin - the NCAA's 7th and ACC's top scorer - not with a good guard matchup, but by steering him into trap after trap and bad shot after bad shot. And it really got into his head. That's Duke defense.

-jk

Stoglin never met a shot he didn't like and has never met a pass he did like. Stoglin is averaging 2 assists per game and almost 2.3 turnovers a game. He is responsible for a third of MD's shots and has taken twice as many as anyone else on the team. If there was ever a player that type of defense against, it's Stoglin.

Contrast that with State which features five guys between 232 shots (Brown) and 212 shots (Wood) with Howell, Leslie and Williams in the middle. Brown is the guy that takes the most shots, but he's also second in the ACC in assists with 6.7 a game and he features a 2:1 a/to ratio so he makes far fewer bad decisions than Stoglin. If State is to have any chance, Brown needs to be aggressive with the ball and his decisions and force the Duke guards into defensive mistakes. If he's in a funk (or Duke puts him in one), I don't think State has much of a chance.