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  1. #41
    [Imported from UNC pre-game thread, as discussion of how several ACC teams will end up, and which team Duke might get in ACC semis, seems more appropriate here.]

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I think UVa, with the injuries to Sene and Harris, just doesn't have the weapons to beat us. They can make the game ugly, and if Evans is getting in the lane or Zeglinski gets hot they can be a threat. But I'm more concerned about FSU's depth and defense than UVa.

    I can certainly see cases made for State and Miami. I think UVa's threat is less than the other two. And I think we should beat any of the four. But I'd much rather face one of those middle three than FSU. And that's not even considering that we could face a #5 seed who has played two games the previous two days (very relevant for State and UVa who lack depth and Miami who could have a worn-out Reggie Johnson).
    Agree with you re facing a #5 seed, and perhaps before you replied to my post, I had added an edit to that effect.

    I'll probably come pretty close to agreeing with you - even if I'll continue to hedge on "much rather" - if FSU wins @ UVa this eve. No news re Sene returning, so UVa definitely short-handed. Even so, they looked better than FSU last weekend, giving Heels a strong challenge, while FSU seemed almost lethargic v. Reggie-suspended Miami. Maybe just another example of "Duke gets everyone's best shot". Miami didn't get FSU's best shot, for sure.

    I'm perhaps overrating UVa, as I've been impressed with their remarkable consistency in a season marked by major transfer and injury disruptions. I thought Sene's injury would doom them, and it may still do just that. In fact, if they lose this eve, they could end up 8-8, and either 6 or 7 in ACC.

  2. #42
    After Thurs eve games, we now know where 2 teams will finish in ACC race: FSU certain to finish #3, and Md. certain to finish #8.

    Likely to be a tie for #4 and #6, between teams and possibilities too numerous to mention. Miami now a solid bet to get to 9-7 and at least a tie for #4, as they finish up at home with BC. Blow that, and their bubble bursts. But even if they get to 9-7, they lose ACCT-seed-tiebreaker to both NCSt and UVa, should either win on road on Sunday. Result of NCSt's visit to VaT Sun eve, last game of season, will determine seeds 4-7, I think. [Check me on this, somebody.]

    In Sene's absence, UVa has had trouble. Check out their rebounds tonight v. FSU.

    http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320610258

    You don't think the ACC could get only 3 in NCAAT?

  3. #43

    seeding

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    After Thurs eve games, we now know where 2 teams will finish in ACC race: FSU certain to finish #3, and Md. certain to finish #8.

    Likely to be a tie for #4 and #6, between teams and possibilities too numerous to mention. Miami now a solid bet to get to 9-7 and at least a tie for #4, as they finish up at home with BC. Blow that, and their bubble bursts. But even if they get to 9-7, they lose ACCT-seed-tiebreaker to both NCSt and UVa, should either win on road on Sunday. Result of NCSt's visit to VaT Sun eve, last game of season, will determine seeds 4-7, I think. [Check me on this, somebody.]

    In Sene's absence, UVa has had trouble. Check out their rebounds tonight v. FSU.

    http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320610258

    You don't think the ACC could get only 3 in NCAAT?
    I posted in another thread that we could still end up with a four-way tie for fourth. We have four teams at 8-7 at the moment and since none of them play each other this weekend, we could end up with any possible combination of 9-7 and 8-8 teams between Virginia, Miami, N.C. State and Clemson.

    Almost too many tiebreakers to figure. If it ends in a four-way tie, then Virginia gets No. 4 (3-1 against the other three -- State and Clemson 2-2 -- and Miami 1-3). I think that means that Miami gets the No. 7 seed. Clemson wins the tiebreaker with State (because of a head-to-head win). So Clemson is No. 5 and NC State No. 6.

    However, I've read and re-read the ACC tiebeaker rules and it might work ths way -- Virginia gets the No. 4 seed, then the other three teams go back into a three-way tie and if that happens, the NC State gets No. 5 (2-1 against Miami and Clemson), Clemson gets No. 6 (1-1 vs. State and Miami) and Miami still gets No. 7 (1-2 vs. the other two). But I think the first reading is right.

    Even so, Miami culd get the No. 4 seed if the 'Canes win this weekend and the other three all lose. Like I said, almost any combination of 4-thoug-7 is possible. I think Miami has the easiest finl game -- home to Boston College. Virginia has a tough one at Maryland. NC State has a tough one at Virginia Tech. And Clemson has a REAL tough one on at FSU.

    I think the potential lineup does point to the advantages the No. 1 seed will have this year. Not only will the semifinal be tough at No. 2 against Florida State (probably) instead of Virginia/State/Miami or Clemson, but the No. 2 seed will have a much tougher quarterfinal game -- the one seed will get the winner of Maryland vs. one of the bottom four teams (Va Tech is the best of the bunch ... but they only get No. 9 if they beat State). The No. 2 seed will get somebody like Miami or NC State.

    Amazing mess at the bottom of the standings. If Georgia Tech can beat Wake in Atlanta Saturday, then we could very well end up with a four-way tie at 4-12. It's too late for me to try and sort that one out, but just a quick glance would seem to suggest that Wake Forest would win a four-way tiebreaker.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    I posted in another thread that we could still end up with a four-way tie for fourth.

    Almost any combination of 4-throug-7 is possible. I think Miami has the easiest final game -- home to Boston College. Virginia has a tough one at Maryland. NC State has a tough one at Virginia Tech. And Clemson has a REAL tough one on at FSU.

    I think the potential lineup does point to the advantages the No. 1 seed will have this year. Not only will the semifinal be tough at No. 2 against Florida State (probably) instead of Virginia/State/Miami or Clemson, but the No. 2 seed will have a much tougher quarterfinal game -- the one seed will get the winner of Maryland vs. one of the bottom four teams (Va Tech is the best of the bunch ... but they only get No. 9 if they beat State). The No. 2 seed will get somebody like Miami or NC State.
    Agree with all this. The reason I referred in my post to likely ties for 4 and 6 - rather than 4-way-tie for 4th - is that, like you, I think it likely that Miami wins and Clemson loses; and then, what the heck, I'll just guess one of NCSt and UVa wins, and the other loses. Anyhow, I would be surprised if there's not at least a tie for 4th, probably 2- or 3-way tie.

    Maybe every year whichever turns out to be the final ACC game determines a couple of seeds, but this year that Sun eve NCSt @ VaT game would seem to affect many seeds.

    I had a minor debate with CDu over on the UNC pregame thread re how big an advantage it would be to finish #1. You and CDu have convinced me that - beyond the signal disadvantage of losing to UNC, and to hell with everything else - this year the 2-seed has a tougher road to ACCT final than 1-seed. A quarterfinal against, especially, a team that finished, say, 9-7 and then won its opening round game - making them 10-7 in ACC - would be a match with a team that would believe it could still make the NCAAT by beating Duke. Such a team, in reality, would probably have to get to the final, but Duke would be in the way.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I had a minor debate with CDu over on the UNC pregame thread re how big an advantage it would be to finish #1. You and CDu have convinced me that - beyond the signal disadvantage of losing to UNC, and to hell with everything else - this year the 2-seed has a tougher road to ACCT final than 1-seed. A quarterfinal against, especially, a team that finished, say, 9-7 and then won its opening round game - making them 10-7 in ACC - would be a match with a team that would believe it could still make the NCAAT by beating Duke. Such a team, in reality, would probably have to get to the final, but Duke would be in the way.
    I'm coming over to this side of the debate myself. There are just going to be so many dangerous teams, all still fighting deseprately for a glimmer of an NCAA berth, that no matter who the #2 seed faces in the quarterfinals, it's going to be an outright claw-and-tooth battle. I'd feel much, much more comfortable with that #1 seed.
    "With seven national titles and 20 Final Fours in the 64-team NCAA Tournament era, Duke and UNC have had more playoff success than any other CONFERENCE." - Al Featherston

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I had a minor debate with CDu over on the UNC pregame thread re how big an advantage it would be to finish #1. You and CDu have convinced me that - beyond the signal disadvantage of losing to UNC, and to hell with everything else - this year the 2-seed has a tougher road to ACCT final than 1-seed. A quarterfinal against, especially, a team that finished, say, 9-7 and then won its opening round game - making them 10-7 in ACC - would be a match with a team that would believe it could still make the NCAAT by beating Duke. Such a team, in reality, would probably have to get to the final, but Duke would be in the way.
    If we do end up losing on saturday, I will take solace in hoping things turn out the way they did last year. Recall that in 2011 we won the first UNC game only after a monumental comeback, then lost the second one. But after an entire week of hearing how much better UNC was and them hearing how great they were, we played with more fire in the ACC tournament. I also think they would up with a tougher path to get to the final, but that's impossible to predict. Even among teams with the same records, there are teams I wouldn't want to face (NC State) and teams I wouldn't mind facing (Virginia).

  7. #47

    teams to face

    I kind of agree with UCake that records aren't always the best guide to the danger of matchups. Going into the tournament, I alwys LOVE facing a team that beat us in our last matchup. When is the last time anybody did that and then beat us in the tournament? I think it was Wake in '95, when we were a terrible team.

    For that reason, I'd look forward to a matchup with Miami. I also wouldn't mind meeting Virginia -- I don't think they are strong enough without Sene to beat Duke. I just don't think Clemson has enough talent to beat Duke.

    Of the four mid-level teams, the only one that I don't want to face is NC State. It could be that we're in their heads and they would roll over for us, but I think they left Durham angry that they blew that game and would welcome another shot at us. Not saying they would win it, but I believe that they are the most dangerous of the teams in the 4-7 battle.

    As for the lower teams, the on I'd like to avoid is Virginia Tech. I know their record isn't very good, but they play everybody close and they seem to match up well with Duke. I think they are a very talented young team that is getting better.

    Other than that, I just don't see any of the lower echelon teams beating us -- Maryland isn't strong enough inside and BC, Georgia Tech and Wake just don't have enough talent.

    Obviously, a matchup with FSU and/or UNC would be a war ... but, heck, to be the best, you've got to beat the best. Agree that by winning Saturday, we avoid having to beat both of them.

    On the other hand, I still remember 2009 when we got the third seed, which is the worst in a lot of ways -- you have to play the late game every day and you get tougher matchups. But we cruised through, beating a tough BC team (that had beaten us by 10 in the last reguar season matchup), got No. 7 Maryland instead of the expected matchup with No. 2 Wake Fiorest, then got No. 4 FSU instead of No. 1 UNC.

    Plus, we won it all from the No. 2 seed last year.

    So while I'd prefer the 1 seed, I wouldn't lose sleep over having the No. 2 seed.

  8. #48
    Join Date
    Jan 2008
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    After Thurs eve games, we now know where 2 teams will finish in ACC race: FSU certain to finish #3, and Md. certain to finish #8.

    Likely to be a tie for #4 and #6, between teams and possibilities too numerous to mention. Miami now a solid bet to get to 9-7 and at least a tie for #4, as they finish up at home with BC. Blow that, and their bubble bursts. But even if they get to 9-7, they lose ACCT-seed-tiebreaker to both NCSt and UVa, should either win on road on Sunday. Result of NCSt's visit to VaT Sun eve, last game of season, will determine seeds 4-7, I think. [Check me on this, somebody.]

    In Sene's absence, UVa has had trouble. Check out their rebounds tonight v. FSU.

    http://espn.go.com/ncb/boxscore?gameId=320610258

    You don't think the ACC could get only 3 in NCAAT?


    It would be shocking to me if Virginia, Miami and NC State all finished with 0.500 or better conference play records and did not make the tournament...especially in a season where we are adding 3 more teams to the NCAA field.

    I would be even more disgruntled if the ACC squads non-invites came at the expense of Big East and Big Ten+2 teams getting the nods (conferences who have been getting a lot of love by the "experts" but whom I personally think have been vastly overrated over the last month and a half). I know people claim that conference affiliation is not looked at by the committee...but I've always thought that doesn't pass the smell test to me.
    Windy City Devil

  9. #49
    I'm posting this after the UNC game. My immediate interest, thus, is in the 7/10 seeds, but honestly, mostly the 7 seed. And painfully honestly, I prefer to see Clemson in the 7-spot. And like some others, I prefer to avoid revenge-minded NCSt.

    Olympic Fan has outlined in post #43 above the 4-way-tie for 4-seed scenarios, and Clemson doesn't seem to wind up 7th in any of those.

    The most obvious - and I'm thinking the only - way for Clemson to finish 7th is for Clemson to lose at FSU [likely], while both UVa [@Md] and NCSt [@VaT] win. The good news is that both UVa and NCSt should play with focus, as each still harbors NCAAT aspirations, but both do need to win - NCSt desperately, and UVa nervously.

    This specific scenario - hardly guaranteed, but hardly wacky, either - would mean Clemson finishes 8-8 and winds up 7-seed. Miami, UVa, and NCSt would all finish 9-7. By tiebreaking rules, UVa gets 4-seed, NCSt 5-seed, Miami 6-seed.

    Again, in this specific scenario, Duke gets Clemson/10-seed winner, FSU gets Miami/11-seed winner, UVa gets NCSt/12-seed winner, UNC gets Md/9-seed winner.

    Duke and UNC would have roughly equal quarterfinal opponents. If Duke and UNC both win on Fri, Duke should get FSU-Miami quarter winner; while UNC should get UVa-NCSt quarter winner.

    Although all this assumes far too much to "predict" semifinal matchups, it does seem to me that Clemson as 7-seed is a preferable "first step."

    If you agree, please root [more effectively than you did very, very recently] for wins tomorrow by FSU, UVa, and NCSt.

    Or, if all this hurts your brain, and/or if you tend to follow the "Be Careful What You Wish For" caution, then by all means have a pleasant, ACC-less Sunday afternoon, and let the chips fall where they may.

  10. #50
    While the rest of you have been in church, I have been out chopping and stacking wood, in case winter this year is scheduled for April. I do believe in sin; but it seems a sin, or at least not good, to freeze to death, in April, around Easter, no less. Chopping wood, you will concede, is less sinful than cussing. Except when there's a knot in the log, in which case chopping and cussing occur pretty much simultaneously.

    Chopping [and cussing] all done, time to think a little about the ACCT. Below an outline of seed scenarios for #s 4-7. I think I have it, with one exception.

    Three games this final day: Clemson @ FSU [ESPN2], then UVa at Md [ACC Network], then NCS @ VT [ESPNU]. Eight possible scenarios for slots 4-7.

    Scenario 1 - my preference, as itís the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
    Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

    Scenario 2
    Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

    Scenario 3
    Clemson loses, UVa loses , NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 UVa

    Scenario 4
    Clemson, UVa, and NCS all lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

    Scenario 5- a puzzler, as ACC tiebreaker rule in this scenario is indecipherable, by me; see Olympic Fanís post #43, this thread.
    Clemson, UVa, and NCS all win = 4 UVa 5 NCS/Clemson 6 NCS/Clemson 7 Miami

    Scenario 6
    Clemson wins, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

    Scenario 7
    Clemson wins, UVa loses, NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Clemson 6 Miami 7 UVa

    Scenario 8
    Clemson wins, UVa and NCS lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

    .....................

    After todayís first game, we can eliminate either all of Scenarios 1-4, or all of 5-8. Maybe Iíll update around 2:15ish, at beginning of Uva @ Md.

    March Madness, match madness.

  11. #51

    tiiebreakers

    Great work -- and I agree that I'd like to see Clemson as the No. 7 seed.

    Now you need to work on tiebreakers for the 10th spt.

    One thing is certain -- if Virginia Tech beats State, they get No. 9 -- no tiebeakers involved.

    In that case, Wake Fiorest wins the three-way tiebreaker for 10th and is in the bracker with the No. 7 seed to face Duke in the semifinals.

    If NC State beats Virginia Tech, then we have a four-way tie for last (9th-12th) and Wake Forest wins the four-way tiebreaker and gets to play Maryland in the 8-9 game. That would put Virginia Tech at No. 10 and in our bracket. Not sure I like that.

    So my goal today (and I agree, this might be a be careful what you wish for scenario) would be for Clemson to wind up No. 7 and Wake Forest No. 10.

    It's not going to be easy in any case -- but to me, I'd like a "little" breather in the quarters -- Clemson or Wake Forest. To me, the worst possible scenari would be to have to beat NC State, FSU and UNC to win it all. Then again, the tougher the road, the greater the glory.

  12. #52
    Clemson loses, so we can eliminate Scenarios 5-8 from post #50 above. That leaves only four scenarios for slots 4-7. Here I simply copy/paste from post #50.

    Scenario 1 - my preference, as itís the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
    Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

    Scenario 2
    Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

    Scenario 3
    Clemson loses, UVa loses , NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 UVa

    Scenario 4
    Clemson, UVa, and NCS all lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

    Go Hoos, go Pack. Maybe I'll update after UVa-Md game, to get to the final 2 scenarios for 7-10.

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    One thing is certain -- if Virginia Tech beats State, they get No. 9 -- no tiebeakers involved.

    In that case, Wake Fiorest wins the three-way tiebreaker for 10th and is in the bracker with the No. 7 seed to face Duke in the semifinals.

    If NC State beats Virginia Tech, then we have a four-way tie for last (9th-12th) and Wake Forest wins the four-way tiebreaker and gets to play Maryland in the 8-9 game. That would put Virginia Tech at No. 10 and in our bracket. Not sure I like that.

    So my goal today (and I agree, this might be a be careful what you wish for scenario) would be for Clemson to wind up No. 7 and Wake Forest No. 10.
    If I understand the work you've done on 9-12 slots, I'm not sure it's possible for Clemson to finish 7 and Wake 10. The only way Clemson gets 7 is if NCS wins over VaT [and UVa wins, too]. But if I read you right [tag quote] above, a win by NCS slots VaT into 10.

    My head hurts.

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    Clemson loses, so we can eliminate Scenarios 5-8 from post #50 above. That leaves only four scenarios for slots 4-7. Here I simply copy/paste from post #50.

    Scenario 1 - my preference, as it’s the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
    Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

    Scenario 2
    Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

    Scenario 3
    Clemson loses, UVa loses , NCS wins = 4 NCS 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 UVa

    Scenario 4
    Clemson, UVa, and NCS all lose = 4 Miami 5 Clemson 6 UVa 7 NCS

    Go Hoos, go Pack. Maybe I'll update after UVa-Md game, to get to the final 2 scenarios for 7-10.
    I'll be cheering for scenario 1 or 3. I don't want to face the Pack again. UVa plays tough defense and Scott is a matchup nightmare. But I like our chances against them. State has a similar matchup nightmare in Leslie and also adds a bit more scoring depth. And they'll really want another shot at us after the debacle in Cameron. So GO PACK!!!

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Wake Forest, NC

    Overtime

    VA and Maryland currently in OT. Go VA.

  16. #56
    Virginia wins in OT, secures ACCT 4-seed, and probably secures NCAAT bid. We are now down to the following 2 scenarios to determine the 5-7 seeds.

    Scenario 1 - Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

    Scenario 2 - Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS

    Go Pack! If Pack wins today, they're still on NCAA bubble, and could get in by getting to ACCT semis and whipping Heels. Pack has every reason to think, "We gotta win today, if we want to stay in hunt for NCAA bubble-bid." Good thinking, Pack!

  17. #57

    two scenarios left

    Okay, FSU beat Clemson and Virginia survived Maryland in OT (after blowing a late 12-point lead in regulation). That means one game left and just two possible scenarios:

    If NC State wins at Virginia Tech:

    1. UNC
    2, Duke
    3, FSU
    4. Virginia
    5. NC State
    6. Miami
    7. Clemson
    8. Maryland
    9. Wake Forest
    10. Va Tech
    11. Georgia Tech
    12. Boston College

    So Duke would get the Clemson-Va tech winner on Friday at 7 p.m.

    But if Virginia Tech wins at home tonight (6 p.m. start), it's:

    1. UNC
    2. Duke
    3. FSU
    4. Virginia
    5. Miami
    6. Clemson
    7. N.C. State
    8. Maryland
    9. Va Tech
    10. Wake Forest
    11. Georgia Tech
    12. Boston College

    So Duke would get the NC State-Wake Forest winner Friday at 7 p.m.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Norfolk, VA

    Virginia 75, Maryland 72

    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post

    Scenario 1 - my preference, as itís the only one which slots Clemson into #7.
    Clemson loses, UVa and NCS both win = 4 UVa 5 NCS 6 Miami 7 Clemson

    Scenario 2
    Clemson loses, UVa wins, NCS loses = 4 UVa 5 Miami 6 Clemson 7 NCS
    We are down to two scenarios and I'll be rooting hard for N.C. State to defeat Virginia Tech.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  19. #59
    Dear Seth Greenberg,

    You want to get to the NCAAT this year, right? Finally, right? Ok, listen up. Only chance is to win ACCT. How to do that? Think, Seth, think strategically.

    1. Lose tonight v. Pack. Deliberately. Lose this game. Think strategically.
    2. This puts Hokies in Duke's side of bracket, avoids Heels for awhile. See #6 below.
    3. Beat Clemson on Thurs. Piece of cake.
    4. Kill Blue Devils on Fri. Duke is soft; everybody knows it. Kill 'em. Piece of cake.
    5. Beat whoever - FSU? Miami? - in semis. Piece of cake.
    6. Hope Cavs or Pack beats Heels in semis. Hope? Hope?? It's all you got, Seth.
    7. Beat not-Heels in Finals on Sun.
    8. NCAAT!

    Cordially yours,

    A True Blue Hokie

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