MBB: Duke vs. UNC 2-8-12 Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[moonpie23]

I'm afraid this is gonna be ugly...i'll be happy to come in here and eat crow, but if we can't shoot well, i think they are gonna hammer us...

[-bdbd]

Two ways we could go:
(1) Bummed and dejected and "defeated" by a game (and poor performance) at home that we should not have lost;
or (2) Pissed off and angry and now, finally, fired-up and focused for the big rivalry game against a fellow-top-10 opponent in their house.

We have the ability to beat these guys - hell, FSU BLEW THEM OUT BY 30+ - and at least they don't have any 6'10" 285lb behemoths to worry about inside. And they DO have some specific vulnerabilities. BUT they are overall quite talented, and you have to expect that (while they haven't always been so) they will come in focused for Duke. You could easily see this as an interior-focused team vs one that is usually quite strong on the perimeter.

I'm jazzed for this game. As a glass-half-full guy, I see this as a perfectly timed OPPORTUNITY, where a big-time win in this one would be lifting us out of the doldrums. A great chance here...

[sagegrouse]

I'm afraid this is gonna be ugly...i'll be happy to come in here and eat crow, but if we can't shoot well, i think they are gonna hammer us...

To me, here are the questions:

1. Big Guys, Part I: Can Dukes bigs control Zeller and Henson on the defensive end?
2. Big Guys, Part II: Can Mason and Ryan score against the Heels large front line? This is a real test for both of them.
3. Can Duke make outside shots? We need Seth, Andre and the rest to have a good game.
4. How well does Duke defend Barnes? He will have a size advantage over the 6-4 Andre and Austin. Will he take advantage of it?
5. Same question, really, for Bullock and Marshall, who are larger than their defenders.
6. Intangibles: This game is really about these, isn't it? Can Duke spring back from an embarrassing home loss? Will UNC be lulled into a false sense of security?
   

sagegrouse

[ChicagoHeel]

My keys to the game are:

1. UNC perimeter D. We've shown that we can be good against the three, and we have the length to bother your shooters, but we've also had games in which we have guarded the perimeter poorly. You have shooters good enough to hit threes even if they are contested, so if you are hot or we are playing soft D, things could go your way. Rivers could be key here- if he can penetrate consistently and kick to the open man, he could break down our D and open things for your shooters.

2. Duke's defensive rebounding. I don't have numbers to support it, but my sense is that our first-shot offense is just not that good. It can be- we have plenty of scorers- but on a lot of nights we rely heavily on put-backs and offensive rebounds. PJ remains in a slump, Bullock is streaky, and Marshall cannot be counted on to score. If the Plumbs can limit our second chance opportunities, our O might stagnate.

For me a wildcard is your team's mentality. I wrote about this in another thread, but after yesterday it's very possible that you guys might come out of the UM game with shaky confidence that will make a road victory awfully difficult. On the other hand, you did a lot of things well in the second half and you could come out and show the intensity of the second half (or VaTech game), in which case anything is possible. I just don't know what to expect.

The players I will be most interested in watching are Barnes and Mason. SIngler was great on Barnes last year and I don't know who you will have to match up on him this year. Mason did not play well against us last year, but is much improved this year. Still, Henson and Z are a lot for him to handle. If he does not score efficiently, it puts an awful lot of pressure on your outside shooting.

[dukeballboy88]

One thing I see that gives me a great feeling about Weds game is if their is a team in the ACC that cant guard the perimeter as bad as us its UNC. We will be able to get any shot we want we just have to knock them down and Seth shot great the last game.. I would put Andre, Seth, Austin and Ryan around the perimeter and give the ball to Austin and tell him to create. Marshall cant guard a trash can we should be able to take him off the dribble and create a shot. Plus pulling Zeller out of the lane may help us rebound but Ryan has to knock it down

Zeller is playing as good as anyone in the country right now so we need to try something different on D. What that is I dont know thats why I am here getting ready to go to work and not on the bench. I got a feeling this might be the highest scoring Duke-UNC game we have seen in a while.

[lotusland]

My keys to the game are:

1. UNC perimeter D. We've shown that we can be good against the three, and we have the length to bother your shooters, but we've also had games in which we have guarded the perimeter poorly. You have shooters good enough to hit threes even if they are contested, so if you are hot or we are playing soft D, things could go your way. Rivers could be key here- if he can penetrate consistently and kick to the open man, he could break down our D and open things for your shooters.

2. Duke's defensive rebounding. I don't have numbers to support it, but my sense is that our first-shot offense is just not that good. It can be- we have plenty of scorers- but on a lot of nights we rely heavily on put-backs and offensive rebounds. PJ remains in a slump, Bullock is streaky, and Marshall cannot be counted on to score. If the Plumbs can limit our second chance opportunities, our O might stagnate.

For me a wildcard is your team's mentality. I wrote about this in another thread, but after yesterday it's very possible that you guys might come out of the UM game with shaky confidence that will make a road victory awfully difficult. On the other hand, you did a lot of things well in the second half and you could come out and show the intensity of the second half (or VaTech game), in which case anything is possible. I just don't know what to expect.

The players I will be most interested in watching are Barnes and Mason. SIngler was great on Barnes last year and I don't know who you will have to match up on him this year. Mason did not play well against us last year, but is much improved this year. Still, Henson and Z are a lot for him to handle. If he does not score efficiently, it puts an awful lot of pressure on your outside shooting.

I'm also curious to see who guards Rivers especially if we stay with a smaller lineup i.e Seth and AR with TT/QC. I think Rivers can get past his man regardless so it will come down to whether he can finish again your big front line or get the ball to the open man after the help rotates. I agree that Duke has to rebound strong to win .

[jv001]

To beat the heels our big guys will have to play tough like they did last year(tourney). I'm pretty sure Austin can drive the ball against their perimeter players. But if he isn't careful, he'll end up eating the ball. He will have to play his best game of the year in dishing the ball to open players. Seth has been successful in making several mid range shots against them. So let's hope he can continue to do so. Maybe Austin can take the clue and do the same. But in the end, the game will be decided by Mason, Miles, Ryan and Josh. GoDuke!

[Kedsy]

I'm also curious to see who guards Rivers especially if we stay with a smaller lineup i.e Seth and AR with TT/QC.

It would surprise me if we went with Austin/Seth/Tyler (or Quinn) very often against UNC. Marshall/Bullock/Barnes are 6'4/6'7/6'8. Really hard to guard that with 6'0/6'1/6'4 (and I think that's being generous to the height of Seth, Tyler and Quinn).

On offense, Seth should be able to get separation enough to shoot if Marshall is guarding him, but he'll have a challenge shooting over Bullock.

[Mr.Analogy]

To beat the heels our big guys will have to play tough like they did last year(tourney). I'm pretty sure Austin can drive the ball against their perimeter players. But if he isn't careful, he'll end up eating the ball. He will have to play his best game of the year in dishing the ball to open players. Seth has been successful in making several mid range shots against them. So let's hope he can continue to do so. Maybe Austin can take the clue and do the same. But in the end, the game will be decided by Mason, Miles, Ryan and Josh. GoDuke!

I think K does something amazing out of yesterdays loss, similar to the VT game only better. I for one think Duke will beat the Tar Heels, the score will be close but Duke wins by 3.

You heard it here first!

[jipops]

I'm afraid this is gonna be ugly...i'll be happy to come in here and eat crow, but if we can't shoot well, i think they are gonna hammer us...

I have this fear as well. With their combination of excellent defensive efficiency, good offensive efficiency, and greater physical talent to go along with our season long struggles on defense I think there is a good possibility of this one getting out of hand. We have faced UNC many-many times where they have enjoyed the advantage of a talent gap but we have managed to keep it close or even pull it out based on tough, gritty defense. That unfortunately has not been an element of this team.

I don't want to appoint any moral victories to this one but if we can even manage to keep it close throughout then that could give us something to build on. If we win then it's just gravy. If we get hammered then it could very well be a blow to the psyche.

I'll be interested to see if we can get Thornton to frustrate Marshall. Kendall won't have much trouble seeing over Tyler but if he can manage to keep Kendall from starting the offense too early then this could help. We can't keep up with them full court but if the start of their offense can be pushed out toward the half court line that may set us up better on D. Another aspect is how the officials are going to choose to call this one. We are the more physical team. If we can keep the pale blue bodies a little further out of the paint then we make things a little more difficult.

The Kelly/Henson match-up is interesting in that it could hurt us a lot or help us. If Kelly can pull Henson away from the basket that that gives Austin and Mason a little more space to finish around the rim. On the other hand Kelly isn't much of a threat to Henson on defense. Henson has a huge advantage in quickness and speed.

[weezie]

I've already started hoping and pleading with the basketball gods that we don't have to sit through Len and Mikey. I may not make it through if that is indeed the case. But, Vitale won't be any better. Ugh, I'm opening a good bottle of wine that night, just to dull the senses.

[dukeballboy88]

If anyone gets on here again and says they think this is going to be ugly, they should have pitch forks taken away. Yall are acting like this is the 09 Heels or something. They are very beatable even in the Snooze Dome. They have 1 ball handler and he struggles making lay ups and if he takes a 3, I get scared for the backboard. I am one that thinks these teams are not that far apart and I am expecting a good hard fought contest with Duke pulling out a victory.

[jv001]

It would surprise me if we went with Austin/Seth/Tyler (or Quinn) very often against UNC. Marshall/Bullock/Barnes are 6'4/6'7/6'8. Really hard to guard that with 6'0/6'1/6'4 (and I think that's being generous to the height of Seth, Tyler and Quinn).

On offense, Seth should be able to get separation enough to shoot if Marshall is guarding him, but he'll have a challenge shooting over Bullock.

I would love to see Austin guard marshall, but as you say we just don't have the size to guard the other unc perimeter guys. I remember how Nolan took marshall out of the game last year and I believe Austin is the only Duke player with that ability this year. I guess Tyler could foul him hard enough he'd have to think about not driving to the hoop. GoDuke!

[jv001]

I've already started hoping and pleading with the basketball gods that we don't have to sit through Len and Mikey. I may not make it through if that is indeed the case. But, Vitale won't be any better. Ugh, I'm opening a good bottle of wine that night, just to dull the senses.

I've sure missed The G-Man this year. Yeh, outside of Coach Knight I can't think of anyone that I'd look forward to hearing. GoDuke!

[1 24 90]

I've already started hoping and pleading with the basketball gods that we don't have to sit through Len and Mikey. I may not make it through if that is indeed the case. But, Vitale won't be any better. Ugh, I'm opening a good bottle of wine that night, just to dull the senses.

Vitale said during Kansas/Missouri that he would be doing the game, so I would think that Shulman would be his partner. Also, on Gameday, they alluded to the fact that Bilas would be there in some kind of announcing role too.

[-jk]

Odds we'll see Karl Hess yet again? I think unc hates him (and gets him) almost as much as we do.

-jk

[weezie]

Now, I'm going to tippy-toe on this one but I actually wouldn't mind if Karl did call the game, especially when both fan groups watch him with eagle vision.
I know we're not supposed to comment on the refs but Hess is considered the "dean" of ACC referees and he is inevitably/eventually in line to call the NC game. I've watched him for so long, I even notice his haircuts. As of the last two years, I've come to think that while he may be considered by the establishment to be acceptable, I don't think he handles his crews well. There's always too much drama that he could easily put a lid on when the other two refs get into trouble, hesitating on calls, fussing at coaches, etc.

OK, PLEASE, please don't yell at me and I am groveling not to get sent to sit in the corner with the rainy teddy bear.

[weezie]

I've sure missed The G-Man this year. Yeh, outside of Coach Knight I can't think of anyone that I'd look forward to hearing. GoDuke!

Gman called last night's game. Saw him in the hallway.

[awhom111]

This game is being simulcast on ESPN and syndicated ACC Network affiliates across the country. The list of affliates is right here:
http://www.theacc.com/live/2012-acc-...-carolina.html

It is a much larger list than in past years thanks to the new broadcast contract this year, so if you do not have ESPN, you might be in luck in as places not so close to the state of North Carolina including Twin Falls, Idaho, Eureka, California, Cedar Rapid, Iowa, Manchester, New Hampshire, or Medford, Oregon, so check the list if you need to see it on another outlet.

[duke09hms]

One thing I see that gives me a great feeling about Weds game is if their is a team in the ACC that cant guard the perimeter as bad as us its UNC. We will be able to get any shot we want.

I'm not sure UNC's defense is as bad as we say/wish it is. In fact their defense is probably much better than ours. Sure they've looked bad in their 3 losses but that's true of every team that loses. Their defense is ranked #14 in adjusted efficiency while ours dropped back into the 90s after this weekend.

Anything can happen, but I think UNC is a clear favorite in this game.