I think UNC goes 13-32 from the line and struggles from 3. Duke goes 13-32 from 3 and 15-18 from the line to avoid the upset. Marshall gets 2 fouls early and is forced to sit and here is where losing Strickland will hurt. Ryan makes Zeller a perimeter defender and drops 20 on him and gets him in foul trouble. K proves again he is Hucks foster father.
LETS GO DUKE!!! LETS GO DUKE!!! LETS GO DUKE!!!
Last edited by dukeballboy88; 02-07-2012 at 11:20 AM.
I am interested in K's comment in yesterday's ACC teleconference that games often turn on "attention to detail where you have to make a play."
Obviously that could apply to Sunday's game v. Miami, and I hope it will apply Wed eve, with more positive results for Duke. I'm inclined to add a friendly amendment to K's observation, by suggesting that tough games turn on attention to detail on many, many plays, and not just at the end. That is, you "have to" to make lots of plays - on O and D - throughout the game. If our guys fail to pay attention to the very details that distinguish good from bad play(s), they're going to lose.
Beyond the point that several posters have made - gotta make shots, including good % of 3s, and rebound against an excellent rebounding team - I will be looking for these kinds of "attention to detail":
- no one-handed thunder dunks, none; even when successful it's unwise, as it only encourages more such crap
- intense, focused block-outs on rebounding when UNC's at the line; no tap backs by Heels
- no silly fouls, none, especially by Miles and Mason; tough enough to deal with Zeller and Henson without wasted fouls
- focus on the detail of setting solid, not moving, screens
- constant, constant talk on D; K has repeatedly said staff has worked on getting more, and more effective, communication; that's a big detail for K, yet up to now it seems this crucial detail hasn't been mastered [this is a detail I guess we might not be able to "see" as clearly as some of the others, but if it's there, K would probably praise it after the game
- bigs get back on D every time, including after Duke scores; no easy baskets via long Marshall passes to streaking Zeller/Henson
- no rhythm-dribble by Mason in the off-chance play or 2 that he's literally wide open via a good pass
Other detail things? There must be quite a few that other posters could add.....
Beyond these things, I hope that when our guys drive, they go up and into Henson, rather than trying to avoid him. IMO, better chance to draw a foul than to avoid a block; he's too long, but he's not too strong. Also, I hope our guys realize that Zeller is sneaky-good at intercepting entry passes. He's not as good on D as O, but he's pretty good.
I'm looking forward to what I assume might be a game-long Barnes-Rivers duel against each other. Now maybe Roy will surprise and put Bullock on Rivers, and let Barnes guard Seth/Andre. But I just assume Rivers and Barnes will play 35 minutes, and try to check each other. If Barnes had a better handle, Rivers would be in big trouble. If Roy actually designs a game-plan that emphasizes Barnes posting up a lot, that might also be a problem for whoever's defending him. But on the optimistic - and just generally fun side - I sort of look forward to seeing Austin v. Barnes, or anyone else. Despite his missed FTs, Austin has game and attitude, and is the closest thing Duke has to a relentless player.
I'm still getting used to Austin, but he certainly possesses what, IMO, is the single most important physical skill, especially for perimeter players - handle. And I think he shows what, IMO, is the single most important mental/psychological [??] skill - relentlessness. His decision-making, though still inconsistent, is coming along ok.
For Duke to have a chance to win tomorrow night, I think the following need to happen:
1) Mason must handle the ball in the low post frequently without turning it over, looking for open shooters on the kick-out if he gets doubled
2) Andre, Seth, and especially Ryan must shoot a good % from 3
3) Austin will need to have more assists than turn-overs; overall, we will need to limit live-ball turnovers to less than 10
4) Limit UNC offensive rebounds and put-backs
5) Hope Bullock/Hairston/Marshall don't shoot a high % from 3
6) Limit bad fouls, especially Mason
Miles is going to need to give us good defensive minutes, as are Andre and Quinn; otherwise, we will just get out-scored
I made a wager with my son the UNC fan that UNC would not sweep Duke this year.... after Sunday I started to regret the bet.... here's hoping that the boys pull together and play a full 40 minutes of hard nosed ball. I really don't want to wear that UNC tee shirt to work.....
This is a spectacularly good rivalry, and despite Duke's being on a downtick, and UNC being upticking, I yearn for a wonderful game. That is, as I noted in a throw-away line in my post, I want to see a fun game, excitement, where both teams challenge each other, go at each other, inspire each other. I'm willing to bet/hope that if Rivers willingly accepts the challenge of Duke's most obvious matchup problem - though, honestly, who else we got?? - and if he holds his own, the upside will top the downside, or something.
To be clear, however, my comment re Rivers-Barnes and a fun game was an addendum to a much more mundane point about how "attention to detail" - maybe below the radar of any possible Rivers-Barnes fireworks - will determine the outcome.
Are these the match-ups that we will likely see?
3. Barnes- Dawkins/ Cook/ Thornton/ Hairston?
5. Z- Mason
I want us to put Bullock on Curry because RB fights through screens well and has the length to disrupt Curry. Sth is the most proven Carolina killer on the floor, so he's priority number one for me. That leaves Marshall on Rivers though, which could be a problem given Rivers' speed and aggressiveness. If Kelly can hit some shots and draw Henson out on D, that might open things up for Rivers too. When I look at the backcourt match-ups, I definitely miss Strickland.
Who will guard Barnes?
Rebounding by our guards is going to be huge with all of the size we're giving up. On offensive, there's a gamble between going for the offensive boards versus getting back on D when you know Carolina is going to run. If they kill us on the boards then we don't have much of a chance, even if we shoot well.
I love Duke .... always have, but if anybody thinks that Duke can win tomorrow night, they're delusional. Sorry .... that's the way I see it. But I gotta say "GO DUKE"!
Personally... I think the game should mirror last season's in Chapel Hill, with Carolina controlling most of the game, but Duke never out of it. Of course, anything can happen.
I don't know how UNC will want to matchup, but I would like to see Henson guarding Kelly with the hopes of Kelly drawing Henson out to the perimeter. Mason would also have more success against Zeller too I believe.
UNC's on-court 5 will probably at every moment be taller than Duke's. So, although the matchups will change, assuming Barnes will play 35 minutes, he's going to be matched with Austin and Andre. [I guess it's conceivable - is it? - that Josh might guard Barnes for a short stretch.] IMO, Austin is a quicker defender than Andre, and is more likely to be able, physically and emotionally, to play through exhaustion in his 35 minutes. I'm willing to bet/hope that Austin would relish the opportunity to guard Barnes for significant minutes, block him out, try to take a charge, and then be counted on to contribute points on O, too. I do expect, of course, that K will rotate Austin and Andre on Barnes for 3-5 minute stretches.
It does seem that, absent foul problems for UNC, the matchups almost entirely disadvantage Duke. Duke's height disadvantage is not really balanced out by outquicking UNC on perimeter, because neither Andre nor Seth has an excellent handle. Quinn is a wild-card-plus, handle-wise; but he'd have to be unexpectedly good guarding Marshall, who's bigger, stronger, headier.
Even if Duke can manage its mismatch problems [UNC's height, O-smoothness, experience], it still has to play smart, with "attention to detail" that K mentioned, and which was the actual emphasis of my original post [#62] in this thread.
Just for argument's sake, say UNC is not able to exploit its putative matchup advantages. It will have other advantages if Duke players lack "attention to detail," either the ones I mentioned, or ones others might be concerned about. Although UNC, too, has not been as consistent as their preseason plaudits might have predicted, their "attention to detail" issues seem right now less daunting. Naturally, I'd be thrilled were they to make several boneheaded plays, or even a dozen. Two charges by Marshall in the first 5 minutes, goal-tending by Henson, confusion on D, Duke tap-back on FT - that sort of thing.
I'm hoping for an attention-smart game from the Devils overall, and for a joyful performance from Austin.
I think that we match up pretty good with UNC in fact. Our guards should all be able to stop Marshall from getting into the lane "too often", and if our bigs stay true and don't help out and force Marshall to score verse pass we should be ok. I think our bigs match up ok with Henson and Zeller, except Henson is so freakin long he will be difficult to keep off the boards. We definately need to body up, and push Zeller about 2 foot further out than he is comfortable. HB really doesn't worry me much, I would like to see Kelly on HB, but that would mean playing three bigs which probably will not happen. Whoever guards him needs to make him work and not just spot up and shoot. The shooting guard match up is a little more problematic for us given Bullocks size... Dawkins probably will draw that assignment, and hopefully keep a hand up and bother Bullock.
Actually UNC's defense has been better this year than in the past IMO. We really need penetration into the lane (hear me Austin??) with kick outs to spot up shooters. UNC habitually drops down to help in the lane which leaves the three point line open. If we knock down some three's we should be in the game... Henson is so long that he may be the only person on the plant that can block Mason's new found hook shot from behind him... I hope Mason gives a few pump fakes and gets Henson off his feet and draws some early fouls...
Duke can certainly win this game, no doubt, but they will have to play better than they did Sunday or it will be a blow out!
Who knows what will happen... it's Duke UNC for heavens sake. I was at the Robby West game at Duke Indoor Stadium back in the day... anything can and usually does happen in these games...
The only part of this thread I've read started with "I'm afraid". I'm not. I'm stoked....it's Duke - UNC and it will be a hell of a game. And to top it off, we just got beat on our own court and are probably a little bit pissed off. Bring 'em on, GTHC!!!
On the perimeter, when Duke's on D, I would like to see Austin on Marshall, but I don't think it will happen. I suspect Quinn and Tyler will guard Marshall when they are in, and when they're not then Seth will try it. When Andre is in, I would expect him to guard Barnes, but it's also possible Austin will do it and Andre will get Bullock. When Andre is on the bench, the only person we have to guard Barnes is Austin. I don't think Josh is an option, and I'd be very surprised if Michael gets meaningful minutes. My biggest concern on D is not who guards Barnes (I think both Austin and Andre can do a creditable job but neither can do a great job), but who guards Bullock. My guess is it will largely fall on Seth, but that's such a height disparity that I'm afraid we'll turn Bullock into a weapon, when usually he's UNC's fifth option.
When Duke's on O, again I would love to see Marshall on Austin. He can't check him and it might tire him out. But again I doubt it would happen. I'd expect Bullock to try it, although perhaps Barnes. I assume Marshall will guard Quinn or Tyler when they're in. When Seth/Austin/Andre are in, it will be interesting to see how UNC matches up. If it were me, I'd stick Marshall on Andre and hope Andre doesn't run around too much. That way UNC would have their two taller, more athletic perimeter defenders guarding Seth and Austin, who they're probably more worried about. Again, the matchup that worries me is Bullock (or Barnes) on Seth, because he tends to have problems shooting over taller defenders. This is another reason why I think Andre is the key to this game for Duke. If he forces Bullock or Barnes to guard him, my guess is he'd play just as well, but Seth would flourish a lot more with Marshall on him.
Obviously this is all guesswork on my part.
Last edited by Kedsy; 02-07-2012 at 04:48 PM.