Originally Posted by
Kedsy
We keep talking about how this year's team has the worst defensive efficiency in the Pomeroy era, so I thought it might be worthwhile to break it down and analyze the pieces.
According to Pomeroy, there are four factors that go into defensive efficiency: defensive rebounding percentage (what percentage of available defensive rebounds do you get); free throw rate (how often do you send your opponent to the free throw line); turnover percentage (what percentage of your opponents possessions end up in a turnover; and effective field goal percentage (shooting percentage counting made three-point shots as 1.5 and made two-point shots as 1.0).
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Our three-point defense seems OK. Six of the past 16 Duke teams were worse and two others were practically identical, so we're middle of the pack for a Duke team in defending the three. So far, so good. Except opponents try fewer threes against us this year than all but three of the past 16 seasons (2006, 2005, and 1997), which suggests the key lies in two-point shots. Where this year's team is tied for worst among the past 16 years in stopping the two-pointer.
I assume this means we're giving up a lot more dunks and layups than usual. Which I suppose I should have been able to guess without all the charts. Combine that with the low turnover rate, and it spells bad D, like we saw in the 2nd half against Florida State today.
How can we fix it? I don't know. Perhaps we should pack it in more, clog up the middle and force people to take more threes with people running at them, sort of like we saw from UVa. Maybe we need to take more chances and force more turnovers. Or possibly we just need to get better at rotating and/or stopping the penetration of opposing PGs.
Frankly, I was hoping for more illumination from the numbers, but you can't force the data. Since I did the work, I'm posting the charts, and maybe someone else will have a better idea.
Thanks for your research. Interesting thread that has led to some good discussion. I believe (maybe over optimistically so) that the answer is the bolded part above. I remember thinking last year's team would generate a bunch of turnovers leading to some easy hoops, but that didn't happen. This team does have a few quick guards, so there is the possibility of generating more turnovers, but I think the team has to get better at rotations first so that when our guards are beaten, the whole team is ready to help them recover. Then, the guards may be able to take more risks and perhaps generate some more steals and make interior passing more difficult. One reason I have confidence that this team can improve on its rotations is that I think the team was very focused the first half and did a great job as a defensive team. I am hoping for more of that and more consistency as the year goes on.
“Those two kids, they’re champions,” Krzyzewski said of his senior leaders. “They’re trying to teach the other kids how to become that, and it’s a long road to become that.”