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  1. #1

    Pomeroy Odds to win the ACC (Regular Season)

    Ken Pomeroy has posted on his (free) blog the results of 1000 simulations of the ACC Regular Season:
    North Carolina 5941
    Duke 2691
    Virginia 682
    Florida St. 258
    Virginia Tech 248
    N.C. State 72
    Georgia Tech 51
    Miami FL 50
    Clemson 7

    The numbers stand for the amount of times out of a thousand simulations that each team won the ACC. UNC is the big favorite (59% chance of winning the ACC) with Duke having basically less than half the chance of winning the conference (26.9%). UVA, FSU, and even VT have clear non-zero odds of winning the conference by this analysis.

    (and before you ask, if a team isn't listed, it won 0 of the 1000 simulations. So Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland are not gonna surprise anyone).
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  2. #2
    I'm surprised that NC State is that low. Given that we play the easiest ACC schedule (by far) it's not that far fetched.

    I'd give it at least a 1.4% chance, not a 0.72%.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I'm surprised that NC State is that low. Given that we play the easiest ACC schedule (by far) it's not that far fetched.

    I'd give it at least a 1.4% chance, not a 0.72%.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA


    (no relation intended to the poster)

  4. #4

    5,941 times out of 1,000?

    I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.
    Whether it's 1,000 or 10,000, Clemson still takes the regular season 7 times.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Edouble View Post
    Whether it's 1,000 or 10,000, Clemson still takes the regular season 7 times.
    It's out of 10,000. And 7 is a pretty small percentage of 10,000 simulations. It suggests that Clemson winning would be a pretty extreme outlier.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It's out of 10,000. And 7 is a pretty small percentage of 10,000 simulations. It suggests that Clemson winning would be a pretty extreme outlier.
    That's approaching the odds of them (ever) winning in chappaheeya.

  8. #8
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    So you are saying there's a chance.
    "This is the best of all possible worlds."
    Dr. Pangloss - Candide

  9. #9
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    Raleigh, NC
    I'm still trying for figure out how Georgia Tech comes in at seventh. Chris Bosh coming back in disguise?

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by cspan37421 View Post
    I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.
    Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.

    @Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It's out of 10,000. And 7 is a pretty small percentage of 10,000 simulations. It suggests that Clemson winning would be a pretty extreme outlier.
    Oh1 Is that how work.?

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.

    @Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)
    Just fyi -- The Thriller Dome is being remodelled, and so "@ Tech" this year means either at Phillips Arena (which will be a big empty) or at Gwinnett Center (a long way from campus). GT had terrible attendance last year as well, although a new coach will hopefully change that.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.

    @Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)
    That Gwinnett home-court advantage did help Tech stay close to Mercer.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    That Gwinnett home-court advantage did help Tech stay close to Mercer.
    I took my kids to see The Wiggles there a few years ago. Bet it drew a better crowd than ANY GT game will this year.

    Hot Potato, indeed.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I'm still trying for figure out how Georgia Tech comes in at seventh. Chris Bosh coming back in disguise?
    No, and Hewitt is not coming back either.

  16. #16
    So Carolina wins the ACC more than twice as often as us??? Really? Not sure the gap is that big... though I'd certainly like their players to believe it

  17. #17
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    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by turnandburn55 View Post
    So Carolina wins the ACC more than twice as often as us??? Really? Not sure the gap is that big... though I'd certainly like their players to believe it
    In a sense it is kinda sad that there's 85+% odds of NC@CH or Duke winning it all. (Actually, just of winning this ficticious "Regular Season crown" - question is who will ultimately win the ACCT, and hence the ACC's automatic birth in the NCAA's, ergo the ACC Championship... But I digress.)

    I would think the race between Duke and NC@CH would be closer than that - 59% and 27%. I'd have guesstimated maybe 50% and 30%, or even ~45-33%. But other than that quibble, I think they get the ranking order of the rest of the ACC relatively close to correct.

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