I'm surprised that NC State is that low. Given that we play the easiest ACC schedule (by far) it's not that far fetched.
I'd give it at least a 1.4% chance, not a 0.72%.
Ken Pomeroy has posted on his (free) blog the results of 1000 simulations of the ACC Regular Season:
North Carolina 5941
Duke 2691
Virginia 682
Florida St. 258
Virginia Tech 248
N.C. State 72
Georgia Tech 51
Miami FL 50
Clemson 7
The numbers stand for the amount of times out of a thousand simulations that each team won the ACC. UNC is the big favorite (59% chance of winning the ACC) with Duke having basically less than half the chance of winning the conference (26.9%). UVA, FSU, and even VT have clear non-zero odds of winning the conference by this analysis.
(and before you ask, if a team isn't listed, it won 0 of the 1000 simulations. So Boston College, Wake Forest, and Maryland are not gonna surprise anyone).
<devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink
Carolina Delenda Est
I'm surprised that NC State is that low. Given that we play the easiest ACC schedule (by far) it's not that far fetched.
I'd give it at least a 1.4% chance, not a 0.72%.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX5jNnDMfxA
(no relation intended to the poster)
I think you mean 10,000 simulations. Or there's something about Pomeroy's methods I do not understand.
So you are saying there's a chance.
"This is the best of all possible worlds."
Dr. Pangloss - Candide
I'm still trying for figure out how Georgia Tech comes in at seventh. Chris Bosh coming back in disguise?
Yes, out of 10,000, my bad.
@Jim, GTech is ranked only 81st in Pomeroy (8th in the conference) so it's not like that result is THAT Improbable (and i think they have an easier schedule than Miami - Duke and Carolina AND Virginia only once, with the Duke and UVA games being AT GT.)
<devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink
Carolina Delenda Est
Just fyi -- The Thriller Dome is being remodelled, and so "@ Tech" this year means either at Phillips Arena (which will be a big empty) or at Gwinnett Center (a long way from campus). GT had terrible attendance last year as well, although a new coach will hopefully change that.
So Carolina wins the ACC more than twice as often as us??? Really? Not sure the gap is that big... though I'd certainly like their players to believe it
In a sense it is kinda sad that there's 85+% odds of NC@CH or Duke winning it all. (Actually, just of winning this ficticious "Regular Season crown" - question is who will ultimately win the ACCT, and hence the ACC's automatic birth in the NCAA's, ergo the ACC Championship... But I digress.)
I would think the race between Duke and NC@CH would be closer than that - 59% and 27%. I'd have guesstimated maybe 50% and 30%, or even ~45-33%. But other than that quibble, I think they get the ranking order of the rest of the ACC relatively close to correct.