Politics 2012: The GOP Nominating Race

[OldPhiKap]

"After being bit by a penguin, Gingrich says he's the underdog"

(Per First Read)

[Rogue]

Who will be Romney's running mate ??

Will he pick someone based on the state they're from for electorial votes ? ( Fla, Ohio, NJ, Va )

Is there anyone from California he could pick that could put that state's electorial votes in play ?

What state does he claim as home ??

What state can Romney not afford to lose, that he can lose ? ( Fla, Ohio, NC, Va , Pa, Mich , )

I enjoy watching the stratagies ..

Yes, Obama has Deleware wrapped up.

[gus]

Who will be Romney's running mate ??

If this "war on women" meme continues, I expect him to nominate a woman. Has Nikki Haley been written off yet?

[Duvall]

Who will be Romney's running mate ??

Will he pick someone based on the state they're from for electorial votes ? ( Fla, Ohio, NJ, Va )

Maybe, but do people still do that? When's the last time a running mate was picked for an electoral advantage?

Is there anyone from California he could pick that could put that state's electorial votes in play ?

California won't be in play. And if it is, Romney's running mate won't make a difference in the national election.

What state does he claim as home ??

Michigan, probably.

What state can Romney not afford to lose, that he can lose ? ( Fla, Ohio, NC, Va , Pa, Mich , )

Ohio, probably.

[OldPhiKap]

If this "war on women" meme continues, I expect him to nominate a woman. Has Nikki Haley been written off yet?

Nikki has lost a lot of ground in South Carolina.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Well it took him long enough to holler "mayday!", but he's finally doing it. On May Day.

NBC News learned that Gingrich will suspend his campaign on May 1, and may well endorse Mitt Romney, his nemesis throughout the primary season.

http://nbcpolitics.msnbc.msn.com/_ne...spotlight?lite

[tommy]

Heard today that Romney's short list for VP may be extremely short: Rubio and Christie. Rubio I understand. Does Romney really think he could win New Jersey by choosing Christie? Not sure I see that happening.

[gus]

Heard today that Romney's short list for VP may be extremely short: Rubio and Christie. Rubio I understand. Does Romney really think he could win New Jersey by choosing Christie? Not sure I see that happening.

Maybe. I bet a lot of liberals in NJ would vote for a Romney/Christie ticket... just to get him out of office here. (joke)

Seriously though: isn't NJ in play though? It seems like the kind of state Governor Romney (as opposed to GOP primary Romney) could do well in. If he can tack successfully back to the middle, and tamp down on the "war on women" meme, NJ could be in play. That said, I'm not sure Governor Christie would help Romney. Christie is much more engaging and charismatic, and has really good fiscal conservative credentials right now. Whlie those are good for Christie, he might overshadow Romney a bit and emphasize the feeling that Romney is a second choice for a lot of people. In other words, would too strong of a lower ticket dampen enthusiasm for the top?


Nate Silver has an interesting piece on VP candidates and their impact on their home states:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-state-effect/

[OldPhiKap]

Rubio helps with Florida, hispanic voters, and Tea Party folks. Theoretically.

How well has he been vetted, though?

That's the process that is going on right now, I am sure.

Absent any real bombs in the closet, Rubio may be the best choice.

[phaedrus]

Little late to the party here, but for anyone still interested in the nitty gritty of this nomination process, I encourage you to check out a Duke alum who has been covering this for the Daily Beast:

http://www.thedailybeast.com/contrib...en-jacobs.html

[Tom B.]

Heard today that Romney's short list for VP may be extremely short: Rubio and Christie. Rubio I understand. Does Romney really think he could win New Jersey by choosing Christie? Not sure I see that happening.

Rubio has said several times that he won't be the VP pick, even going so far as to say last week that Romney should pick someone with more experience. Of course, that was a week ago, which is an eternity in modern politics.

One consideration that may be on Rubio's mind is that he supposedly really wants to push some sort of Republican version of immigration reform. But if he accepts the VP nomination, it'll be hard for him to campaign and do that at the same time, especially given the tightrope that Romney will have to walk on the issue given the relatively hard-line positions he staked out in the last two Republican primary cycles ("self-deportation," anyone?).

Also, if a Romney-Rubio ticket wins, then Rubio's Senate seat is vacated. It would presumably stay in Republican hands because Rick Scott, the Republican governor of Florida, would get to appoint a temporary replacement -- though the seat would be subject to a special election in 2014, instead of remaining firmly in a Republican's (i.e., Rubio's) hands until 2016. A potentially bigger question for Rubio, though, is whether his replacement would be willing to give the immigration issue the time of day. In the end, Rubio may feel that he'd be in a better position to advance a Republican version of immigration reform as a Senator than he would as VP.

My hypothesis: Rubio wants to run for President someday, and will end up doing whatever he thinks will help him most in that regard. If that means joining the ticket, that's what he'll do. If that means campaigning with Romney to up his national profile and acting as an unofficial ambassador/consigliere for Romney on immigration issues while staying in the Senate to work on DREAM Act Lite, that's what he'll do. And as always, I base this hypothesis on absolutely nothing.


As for Christie, I wonder if he'd really bring NJ into play. When's the last time that a VP nominee swung a state? The only one in the last three elction cycles who had even the potential to swing a state was John Edwards, and we all know how that worked out. It's the name at the top of the ticket that really matters, and right now Romney just isn't there, even with Christie on the ticket. There was a poll a week or so ago that had Obama up on a hypothetical Romney/Christie ticket by (I think) 9 points, so I think Romney still has an uphill battle to compete seriously in NJ. And Christie, being the, um...gregarious guy that he is, might risk committing the cardinal sin of overshadowing the guy above him.


What happened to all the Rob Portman chatter? That's all anyone could talk about last week, and now it's like he fell into a hole or something and nobody can find him.

[Duvall]

What happened to all the Rob Portman chatter? That's all anyone could talk about last week, and now it's like he fell into a hole or something and nobody can find him.

Maybe Romney's camp thought about what it would mean to have one of George W. Bush's budget directors as a running mate.

[OldPhiKap]

And Christie, being the, um...gregarious guy that he is, might risk committing the cardinal sin of overshadowing the guy above him.

It's the George HW Bush/Dan Quayle dilemma. Except GHWB had been VP for 8 years; ambassador to China; head of the CIA; and war hero.

Mitt, no so much.

If he goes with someone that fires up the base (Rubio, Christie) he probably gets overshadowed. If he picks someone more milquetoast (T-Paw) it doesn't get him anywhere. You probably also have some big names that think they can run in 2016 IF Mitt loses, whereas if they run as the VP they will either get stuck there (Al Gore) or be damaged goods the next time around (Palin) -- so they will sit it out regardless (Jeb, I'm looking at you).

I think he needs to risk it by getting an attack dog that will get the base to the polls.

[gus]

It's the George HW Bush/Dan Quayle dilemma. Except GHWB had been VP for 8 years; ambassador to China; head of the CIA; and war hero.

Mitt, no so much.

If he goes with someone that fires up the base (Rubio, Christie) he probably gets overshadowed. If he picks someone more milquetoast (T-Paw) it doesn't get him anywhere. You probably also have some big names that think they can run in 2016 IF Mitt loses, whereas if they run as the VP they will either get stuck there (Al Gore) or be damaged goods the next time around (Palin) -- so they will sit it out regardless (Jeb, I'm looking at you).

I think he needs to risk it by getting an attack dog that will get the base to the polls.

Despite thinking that Christie has no chance of being the VP (having cited the same dilemma), I do think he is one of those people who can be an effective "attack dog" without being disliked. But could Romney fit him in a crate on the roof of his car?

(okay, that was pretty forced).

[JasonEvans]

According to Intrade:

Rubio 21.5%
Portman 17.3%
Christie 10.6%
Mitch Daniels 7.3%
Bob McDonnel 6.0%
Paul Ryan 4.5%
Kelly Ayotte 3.5%
John Thune 3.3%
Tim Pawlenty 3.1%

Then there are a bunch of names in the 2% kinda range and even lower.

-Jason "at this point in the cycle 4 years ago, I doubt Palin would have even been at 1%" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

According to Intrade:

Rubio 21.5%
Portman 17.3%
Christie 10.6%
Mitch Daniels 7.3%
Bob McDonnel 6.0%
Paul Ryan 4.5%
Kelly Ayotte 3.5%
John Thune 3.3%
Tim Pawlenty 3.1%

Then there are a bunch of names in the 2% kinda range and even lower.

-Jason "at this point in the cycle 4 years ago, I doubt Palin would have even been at 1%" Evans

I imagine the vetting process will be stronger this time around and the chance of an unknown are less. Mitt needs help on the ticket.

T-Paw couldn't deliver Minnesota for Mitt, I don't see how he helps.

Paul Ryan's speech today will be interesting. I guess it's going about now.

Finally watched Rubio give a speech yesterday, never really had before. Man, he looks young. I wonder if a Biden/Rubio debate would be like the Benson/Quayle debate.

[Olympic Fan]

I imagine the vetting process will be stronger this time around and the chance of an unknown are less. Mitt needs help on the ticket.

T-Paw couldn't deliver Minnesota for Mitt, I don't see how he helps.

Paul Ryan's speech today will be interesting. I guess it's going about now.

Finally watched Rubio give a speech yesterday, never really had before. Man, he looks young. I wonder if a Biden/Rubio debate would be like the Benson/Quayle debate.

Yeah, but remember that even though Benston easily won the debate (by almost every measure) and humilated Quayle with his "You're no Jack Kennedy" remark. that didn't stop Dan Quayle from from being elected Vice President as George Bush, The First, crushed Michael Dukakis in the election.

I agree that the impact of the VP choice is overrated. Unless a candidate makes a egregious error in his choice -- Palin in 2009; Eagleton in 1984 -- it plays a small role in the general vote (even the Quayle choice was essentially meaningless). I looked at Nate Silver's link measuring the impact of VPs on the voting in their home state and while he tended to downplay it, I think the data DID show a small, but measurable benefit in most cases. If that's true, then Rubio would seem to be the perfect choice in that Florida is one of the two tossup states that Rmoney HAS to win (Ohio the other) and getting Rubio helps. Obviously, it should help with Cuban-Americans ... will is also help with other Hispanic voters (which right now seem to be strongly in Obama's camp)?

I would also think that the VP choice could matter to the core constituency of your party. For instance the tea party types are not very hot on Mr. Romney. If he throws them a bone in the VP selection, will that get them excited? On the the other hand, it was concern for right wing opinion that led John McCain to pass over the man he wanted -- Joe Lebowitz -- for Palin. His aides told him the right wing would revolt if he picked his man. So he ended up trashing his strongest issue -- Obama's lack of qualification for the office (how could that argument fly when he had nominated the even more unqualified Pailn to be "a 72-year-old's heartbeat from ther Oval Office"). On the other hand, Obama's selection of Biden was about as neutral as you can get. I don't think he helped a bit (the Democrats were going to win Delaware anyway). but he didn't hurt with any major voting block.

As a Democrat, I think I'm fairly dispassionate about Romney's choice. But I do think Rubio (provided he's properly vetted) would help the most -- but that help would be very minimal.

[77devil]

I imagine the vetting process will be stronger this time around and the chance of an unknown are less. Mitt needs help on the ticket.

T-Paw couldn't deliver Minnesota for Mitt, I don't see how he helps.

Paul Ryan's speech today will be interesting. I guess it's going about now.

Finally watched Rubio give a speech yesterday, never really had before. Man, he looks young. I wonder if a Biden/Rubio debate would be like the Benson/Quayle debate.

He is young, although he looks even younger than his 40 years to me. I believe the Veep pick will matter only if it's someone the electorate considers not ready to be POTUS on day one given the lingering effects of 2008. Can't imagine this happening again. IMO, Rubio get's DQ'd for this reason despite what else he brings to the ticket.

Going over to Intrade to see if I can short Rubio.

[tommy]

I would also think that the VP choice could matter to the core constituency of your party. For instance the tea party types are not very hot on Mr. Romney. If he throws them a bone in the VP selection, will that get them excited? On the the other hand, it was concern for right wing opinion that led John McCain to pass over the man he wanted -- Joe Lebowitz -- for Palin.

Joe Lebowitz??

[sagegrouse]

Joe Lebowitz??

Natural mistake. He, of course, meant The Big Lebowski.

sage