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  1. #1001
    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post

    It's really amazing how Romney has managed to follow up just about every victory that was supposed to herald "the beginning of the end" with a gaffe that gives his detractors and opponents new ammunition.

    (OK, this time I guess it was technically a Romney adviser and not Romney himself, but I'm not sure that's going to soften the impact.)

  2. #1002
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    I think he'll hear the Etch-a-sketch line again come the fall. It is a brilliant attack line. Especially if you can show a commercial with Romney's own aide saying it.

    Wow.

  3. #1003
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    The Other Side of the Coin

    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    It's really amazing how Romney has managed to follow up just about every victory that was supposed to herald "the beginning of the end" with a gaffe that gives his detractors and opponents new ammunition.

    (OK, this time I guess it was technically a Romney adviser and not Romney himself, but I'm not sure that's going to soften the impact.)
    Although, although I heard an interesting analysis by a knowledgeable Repub prior to Illinois. He said the Pub voters in the Chicago suburbs recognize that Romney is somewhat insincere and probably not nearly as conservative as he is talking and THEY ARE ALL RIGHT WITH THAT, in that they are somewhat moderate themselves.

    This has been a fun and constructive thread. Thanks to Jason for sponsoring and moderating. But, surely, surely, surely we can all agree that this nomination race is over, done, fini, finito.

    sage

  4. #1004
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    This has been a fun and constructive thread. Thanks to Jason for sponsoring and moderating. But, surely, surely, surely we can all agree that this nomination race is over, done, fini, finito.
    PPP tweeted tonight that Santorum is up 10 in their first night of Louisiana polls.

    But yeah, it is almost certainly over

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  5. #1005
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Although, although I heard an interesting analysis by a knowledgeable Repub prior to Illinois. He said the Pub voters in the Chicago suburbs recognize that Romney is somewhat insincere and probably not nearly as conservative as he is talking and THEY ARE ALL RIGHT WITH THAT, in that they are somewhat moderate themselves.

    This has been a fun and constructive thread. Thanks to Jason for sponsoring and moderating. But, surely, surely, surely we can all agree that this nomination race is over, done, fini, finito.

    sage
    Illinois is one of the last bastions of old school, "establishment" Republicans - economically conservative (though not necessarily militant/dogmatic in that regard), socially liberal and hawkish but prudent on foreign affairs. There are still plenty of these around the country, but they tend to be more concerned with their day jobs than with grass roots activism. It is hardly surprising that Romney appeals to them, even with his all his warts and gaffes.

  6. #1006
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    This has been a fun and constructive thread. Thanks to Jason for sponsoring and moderating. But, surely, surely, surely we can all agree that this nomination race is over, done, fini, finito.
    Though I think the public is losing interest (I am), and Romney is 95% likely to be the nominee, I think it will go on at least another month to April 24th, when NY and some other Northeast states vote. If Santorum makes it through that, though, he's got potential friendlier territory for him in May. Santorum et al. might keep it going as long as they think they have a chance to somehow stop Romney from getting a delegate majority.

  7. #1007
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bluedog View Post
    HRC got 17,857,501 votes (48%) while Obama got 17,584,692 votes (47.3%). If the Democrats had the same rules as the Republicans in 2008 (where most states were winner takes all), HRC would have likely been the nominee as she won FL, NY, CA, PA, OH, TX...
    For the record, these totals I guess include Michigan, where Clinton was the only candidate who didn't take her name off the ballot (Obama and others did due to MI's scheduling shenanigans). Obama "won" the vote if you discard MI. These also don't seem to include IA, NV, ME, and WA, all Obama wins that didn't release official vote totals. The margins on RealClearPolitics are:
    w/o MI, IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +41,622
    w/o MI: Obama +151,844
    w/o IA, NV, ME, WA: Clinton +286,687
    all inc: Clinton +176,465
    *in MI, there were also 238,168 votes for "uncommitted"
    **IIRC, they didn't officially campaign in FL, which also makes the FL numbers suspect.

    Anyhow, I don't think it's that pertinent to consider how things would have turned out if the rules were different. The candidates would likely have had different strategies if the states were winner-take-all. Same is true this year.

  8. #1008
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    This has been a fun and constructive thread. Thanks to Jason for sponsoring and moderating. But, surely, surely, surely we can all agree that this nomination race is over, done, fini, finito.
    I think it is pretty clear that Romney is a prohibitive favorite to get to the Convention with the most delegates.

    Whether he crests 1144 or not, though -- probably, but not certainly. Call him a 3:1 or 4:1 favorite, I guess.

  9. #1009
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    Quote Originally Posted by crimsondevil View Post
    For the record, these totals I guess include Michigan, where Clinton was the only candidate who didn't take her name off the ballot (Obama and others did due to MI's scheduling shenanigans). Obama "won" the vote if you discard MI. These also don't seem to include IA, NV, ME, and WA, all Obama wins that didn't release official vote totals. The margins on RealClearPolitics are:
    w/o MI, IA, NV, ME, WA: Obama +41,622
    w/o MI: Obama +151,844
    w/o IA, NV, ME, WA: Clinton +286,687
    all inc: Clinton +176,465
    *in MI, there were also 238,168 votes for "uncommitted"
    **IIRC, they didn't officially campaign in FL, which also makes the FL numbers suspect.

    Anyhow, I don't think it's that pertinent to consider how things would have turned out if the rules were different. The candidates would likely have had different strategies if the states were winner-take-all. Same is true this year.
    What's more, how do you account for caucus states, that always have significantly lower turnout, versus primary states? If someone really wanted to do this fairly they need to find a way to increase the caucus state voting, probably via some ratio of how those states vote in the general election compared to primary states. I am not sure if that sentence makes sense, but my point is that simply looking at the popular vote in this kind of scenario is a tremendously flawed way of reaching a conclusion.

    It is worth noting that the GOP is not allocating delegates proportionally in all states this time around. Instead, most states seem to be giving delegates to winners of each congressional district and then awarding some additional delegates, sometimes proportionally, to the state-wide popular vote winner. If the GOP were handing out delegates proportionally, Romney would be in very serious danger of not getting 50% of the delegates as he has only very rarely reached even close to 50% of the vote in any of these states.

    -Jason "I am starting to really wonder if the Etch-a-sketch remark is going to turn into a major, major blunder" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  10. #1010
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    I think it is pretty clear that Romney is a prohibitive favorite to get to the Convention with the most delegates.

    Whether he crests 1144 or not, though -- probably, but not certainly. Call him a 3:1 or 4:1 favorite, I guess.

    Yeah, that's the only question remaining. Neither Santorum nor Gingrich is going to catch Romney in delegates, but can they keep him from getting 1,144 before the convention? One school of thought says that's the only reason Newt is staying in at this point. He knows he's not winning any more states, knows he's probably coming in third in delegates (he even said so in an interview yesterday). But it's unclear that if he dropped out, the people who vote for him would flock to Santorum -- at least some would go to Romney. So by staying in he holds Santorum back somewhat, but also might be able to hold Romney back just enough to keep him from piling up enough votes (and thus, enough delegates) to sew up the nomination before the convention.

  11. #1011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Yeah, that's the only question remaining. Neither Santorum nor Gingrich is going to catch Romney in delegates, but can they keep him from getting 1,144 before the convention? One school of thought says that's the only reason Newt is staying in at this point. He knows he's not winning any more states, knows he's probably coming in third in delegates (he even said so in an interview yesterday). But it's unclear that if he dropped out, the people who vote for him would flock to Santorum -- at least some would go to Romney. So by staying in he holds Santorum back somewhat, but also might be able to hold Romney back just enough to keep him from piling up enough votes (and thus, enough delegates) to sew up the nomination before the convention.
    I think this is exactly right. At this point, Newt getting out helps Romney get over the top -- both going forward in primaries, and in the release of his currently-pledged delegates. Newt and Rick are both hoping to keep Mitt from getting over the top so they may get the nod at an open convention, and/or brokering a deal to get out in exchange for "X"

  12. #1012
    Just when Romney didn't need any more headaches.....

    Link.

  13. #1013
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Just when Romney didn't need any more headaches.....

    Link.
    Let's all just let that sink in for a moment.
    This whole campaign is like a bad episode of Twin Peaks.

  14. #1014
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Just when Romney didn't need any more headaches.....

    Link.
    Don't you think having the birthers come after you makes you look "presidential?" -- sage

  15. #1015
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Just when Romney didn't need any more headaches.....

    Link.
    Too good to be true. Calling The Donald. Let's see how the other candidates respond.

  16. #1016
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    Quote Originally Posted by 77devil View Post


    Too good to be true. Calling The Donald. Let's see how the other candidates respond.
    This is one of the greatest developments of the campaign to date. Not just that the birthers are back, this time after the Republican (Fair and Balanced, those birthers), but I'm delighted at the lineage that just got outlined. I confess that I knew nothing about Mitt's great-granddaddy fleeing the US to stay married to Mitt's 4 great-grandmammies (I have mental images of the Greens from Big Love), and I don't think whatever Mitt's great-grandfather did matters one iota with regards to Mitt's capabilities as the prospective POTUS. But there is something deeply gratifying about the idea of people, who absolutely insist that President Obama must be some kind of nefarious non-Christian, having to choose between him and a man who's a couple generations away from a polygamy compound.

    My interest level in this election cycle just skyrocketed.
    Brian Zoubek on what was going through his mind walking to the free throw line with 3.6 seconds remaining in the 2010 National Championship game and Duke up by 1: "Fifty percent [of me is] thinking, This is what I've been dreaming of doing my entire life. Fifty percent I'm crapping my pants."

  17. #1017
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    Not that it matters, but Santorum has been declared the winner in Louisiana tonight by a fairly large margin, something close to 20 points.

    But, as Nate Silver said earlier today, it seems too little, too late.

    -Jason "new polls show Romney up in Wisconsin... which would all but end Santorum's race, I think" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  18. #1018
    Join Date
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Gingrich isn't quitting because the race isn't over. Ahh...well that makes sense.
    I think this is not over until it's over
    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ed/?hpt=hp_bn5
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  19. #1019
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Gingrich isn't quitting because the race isn't over. Ahh...well that makes sense.

    http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ed/?hpt=hp_bn5
    When you come to a fork in the road, stick it in the race. It's done.

    (Apologies to Yogi)

    Unless Santorum somehow wins Wisconsin, of course.

  20. #1020
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    I think he'll hear the Etch-a-sketch line again come the fall. It is a brilliant attack line. Especially if you can show a commercial with Romney's own aide saying it.
    For get the Etch-a-Sketch. Arlen Specter just turned the Romney Analogymeter up to 11.

    Holy moly.

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