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  1. #801
    For anyone who doesn't follow Andy Borowitz - he has some very funny one-liners about the GOP race. Regardless of political affiliation, they are funny, even if Andy is very left leaning. He really doesn't like Santorum. Remember - he is a comedian. Examples:

    "Attention Rick Santorum: you are running for President. The position of Spanish Inquisitor is no longer available."

    "Three reasons why Obama deserves reelection 1) Bin Laden dead 2) Gaddafi dead 3) Charlie Sheen off the air"

    "Two signs that the economy is improving: the Dow hit 13000 and Santorum called Obama a Muslim."

    "Electing Santorum would solve our immigration problem but create an enormous one for Canada."

    "Not sure why Chris Christie thinks gay marriage would do more harm to his state than "Jersey Shore" has."

    "Of the several billion people in the world who are not Romney I can't believe that the best not Romney is Rick Santorum."
    My Quick Smells Like French Toast.

  2. #802
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Voters are funny. When the "word" is that Romney loses the nomination if he loses Michigan, voters in Michigan (his home state) may tend to support him to keep his candidacy alive. Same thing happened when Hillary won NH in 2008, after Obama won in Iowa and the polls favored him in New Hampster.

    sagegrouse
    Of course, there is also an underground movement for Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary for Santorum. -- sage

  3. #803
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Of course, there is also an underground movement for Democrats and Independents to vote in the Republican primary for Santorum. -- sage
    A/K/A "Operation Hilarity"

    Dems are running anti-Romney ads in Michigan, FWIW.

  4. #804
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    We got 2 final polls last night from Michigan...

    PPP has it Santorum by 1, 38-37, Rosetta Stone has it Romeny by 1, 37-36.

    This could be a fun one to watch the returns come in tonight! The winner here is almost certainly the front-runner. Should be fun!!

    -Jason "it is close enough so that it is very possible that the democratic meddlers could tilt this one to Santorum" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  5. #805
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    We got 2 final polls last night from Michigan...

    PPP has it Santorum by 1, 38-37, Rosetta Stone has it Romeny by 1, 37-36.

    This could be a fun one to watch the returns come in tonight! The winner here is almost certainly the front-runner. Should be fun!!

    -Jason "it is close enough so that it is very possible that the democratic meddlers could tilt this one to Santorum" Evans
    Agreed. I guess my questions is whether there is a difference between Santorum winning by 1% or Romney winning by 1% in terms of the whole horse race. Michigan has 14 congressional districts, and 30 delegates. The way it works as I understand it, the winner of each congressional district gets 2 delegates per district and the overall state winner gets the remaining 2 delegates.

    For my money, a virtual tie hurts Romney and may help Santorum if he keeps the money going in. Whether one is fractionally ahead of the other may make good headlines but not mean a whole lot.

  6. #806
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    ^^ Put another way, should "The Establishment" (whatever that is) feel better about Romney's chances in the general because he only won his home state by 2%, as opposed to lost it by a hair? It is bad news, either way.

    A majority of the party doesn't want Romney. They show this time and time again. If I were betting heavily on the Republicans retaking the White House, I would be a very unhappy camper right now regardless of whether Mitt pulls out Michigan or not.

  7. #807
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    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    For anyone who doesn't follow Andy Borowitz - he has some very funny one-liners about the GOP race. Regardless of political affiliation, they are funny, even if Andy is very left leaning. He really doesn't like Santorum. Remember - he is a comedian. Examples:

    "Attention Rick Santorum: you are running for President. The position of Spanish Inquisitor is no longer available."

    "Three reasons why Obama deserves reelection 1) Bin Laden dead 2) Gaddafi dead 3) Charlie Sheen off the air"

    "Two signs that the economy is improving: the Dow hit 13000 and Santorum called Obama a Muslim."

    "Electing Santorum would solve our immigration problem but create an enormous one for Canada."

    "Not sure why Chris Christie thinks gay marriage would do more harm to his state than "Jersey Shore" has."

    "Of the several billion people in the world who are not Romney I can't believe that the best not Romney is Rick Santorum."
    I chuckled. Add Bill Maher's comment yesterday that he should have given the million dollars he donated to the Obama's super pack to Santorum to keep him in the race. "It's free material for my stand up routine and better than anything I could write."

    Honestly, we need humor, and reason # 3 for why Obama deserves reelection almost made me spill the coffee.

  8. #808
    Can I ask; how much of what a pol says during primaries do you think "sticks" when you get to the general? Will some of Santorums more "inflammatory" comments about education and the role of religion in government come back to haunt him? Or do Americans not pay enough attention/care enough to/about what is said in primaries?

  9. #809
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    This idea of Democrats sabatoging Romney is interesting to me because IIRC, Republicans managed to swing about two delegates from Obama to Clinton in Mississippi.

    I'm a little confused by the meme going around that says these guys are gonna beat up on each other so much that none of them look viable. That's kind of what people said four years ago about the Democrats, but in the event it made Obama end looking battle-tested rather than weakening him.

  10. #810
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    A/K/A "Operation Hilarity"

    Dems are running anti-Romney ads in Michigan, FWIW.
    It gets even better. Apparently Santorum has a robo-call out urging Democrats to cross over and vote for him, to "send a message" to Romney about his opposition to the auto industry bailout. I'm guessing the Santorum robo-calls conveniently omit the fact that Santorum also opposed the bailout (of course, by then he was out of the Senate and didn't have to vote on it).

    Just when you think this race can't get any weirder....

  11. #811
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post

    I'm a little confused by the meme going around that says these guys are gonna beat up on each other so much that none of them look viable. That's kind of what people said four years ago about the Democrats, but in the event it made Obama end looking battle-tested rather than weakening him.
    I think a big difference lies in who ultimately emerges victorious. Obama wasn't the favorite going in to the 2008 race -- heck, he wasn't even supposed to be in the race, having just been elected to the Senate four years earlier. So when he prevailed over the HRC, who had all the advantages in name-recognition, money and organization, he was suddenly Barack the Giant Killer.

    Romney entered the 2012 race with the same advantages as HRC, which means that fair or not, he entered it with much higher expectations. Even if he goes on to become the GOP nominee, he'll be Mitt the Guy Who Struggled To Beat Two of the Most Baggage-Laden Candidates the GOP Could Have Put Forward.

    Another difference is that Obama, while the insurgent to HRC's "establishment" in 2008, was basically a center-left candidate who didn't alienate moderates. His insurgency was one of tone, rhetoric and "vision," not policy positions. Santorum, on the other hand....well, do I really need to finish that sentence?

  12. #812
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Ash View Post
    Can I ask; how much of what a pol says during primaries do you think "sticks" when you get to the general? Will some of Santorums more "inflammatory" comments about education and the role of religion in government come back to haunt him? Or do Americans not pay enough attention/care enough to/about what is said in primaries?
    I'm sure every off-the-wall or controversial statement is being jotted down by Obama's team for resurrection in the general election. Even though we are eating this stuff up, lots of America won't be paying much attention to the candidates until after the conventions are over, so what we are listening to now will be finding a new audience in the summer and fall.
    That's not to say it will actually work as a strategy. By that point, whether it's Romney or Santorum or whoever, the candidate will be pretty well practiced with their rebuttal.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #813
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    I was thinking the other day about, supposing Obama were to lose, how odd it would be to have a living 51-year old ex-President. So young. And what would he do? President tends to be the terminus of a political career. Can you imagine him running for Senate in Illinois again?

    Only one President has left office at a younger age, as Theodore Roosevelt was just 50. Grover Cleveland was 51 at the end of his first term, but came back for a second helping. Kennedy was 46 when he was murdered, but I suspect he'd have been re-elected in 1964, so he'd have been 51 upon leaving office in early 1969. Garfield was 49 when he was murdered, so he would have finished a first term at 53. I have no idea what his re-election prospects would have been. Franklin Pierce was 52 after his single term.

    It would be a fairly unusual situation, and unprecedented in the mass media era.

    http://wafflesatnoon.com/wp-content/...identsages.htm

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  14. #814
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I was thinking the other day about, supposing Obama were to lose, how odd it would be to have a living 51-year old ex-President. So young. And what would he do? President tends to be the terminus of a political career. Can you imagine him running for Senate in Illinois again?

    Only one President has left office at a younger age, as Theodore Roosevelt was just 50. Grover Cleveland was 51 at the end of his first term, but came back for a second helping. Kennedy was 46 when he was murdered, but I suspect he'd have been re-elected in 1964, so he'd have been 51 upon leaving office in early 1969. Garfield was 49 when he was murdered, so he would have finished a first term at 53. I have no idea what his re-election prospects would have been. Franklin Pierce was 52 after his single term.

    It would be a fairly unusual situation, and unprecedented in the mass media era.

    http://wafflesatnoon.com/wp-content/...identsages.htm
    It's hard to say what Garfield's re-election prospects would have been, because he had served so little of his term. But he was a popular president when he was gunned down.

  15. #815
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    Other things that would be odd:

    If the Republicans were to win this election, but then get voted out in 4 years by someone new - it would be only the 2nd time in American history that that situation has happened.

    That is, A gets elected and serves 4 years, but is voted out and B gets elected and serves 4 years, but then gets voted out and C gets elected.

    Most of the times this potentially may have happened we had Presidents die so their VP's took over and then the VP got voted out. And of course Cleveland / Harrison / Cleveland is a bit of an oddity (A-B-A situation).

    The only time it happened was Pierce / Buchanan / Lincoln, and even then Pierce and Buchanan couldn't even secure their parties' nominations to run for a 2nd term anyway!

  16. #816
    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Another difference is that Obama, while the insurgent to HRC's "establishment" in 2008, was basically a center-left candidate who didn't alienate moderates. His insurgency was one of tone, rhetoric and "vision," not policy positions. Santorum, on the other hand....well, do I really need to finish that sentence?
    This. Extremist statements tend to stick, centrist ideas expressed in a primary season aren't very good weapons. The analogy would hold better if Obama were Dennis Kucinich. All the charges of socialist we've heard over the past 3+ years notwithstanding, if there were a right-to-left spectrum of the '08 Dem candidates, HRC and Obama would have been on the right end of it together. There was nothing in particular to stick him with based on what he'd been saying in the primary season, other than possibly health care. R's did focus on that, and it had some impact, but then again, it was a specific policy issue that was fairly important in the general race, and Obama continued to espouse the same things he had in the primaries.

    Santorum, on the other hand, is so far to the right he's insisting GWB's policies weren't nearly conservative enough to be considered conservative. He just called the President of the United States a snob for suggesting that more Americans should be going to college. He's said he wants to cut the federal budget by $5T through Medicare, Social Security and discretionary cuts alone. He's on record as saying that Satan is trying to ruin the United States. He's stated that Obama's not a true Christian. Just this weekend he insisted that the very idea of separation of church and state makes him want to puke. In the world of super-PAC's, these sorts of things would be heard a lot during a general election campaign, and since it's all on video or clear audio, it's going to be straight from his mouth. That would be the most effective path for Obama if he faced Santorum. Just as importantly, there's no real reason at this point to question Santorum's sincerity in all this and think he wouldn't say the same things directly during the general.

    If it's Romney, the things he's said in the primaries are so at odds with his prior policies and stances, that that is likely to become the message. That, and then the President attacking constantly on healthcare and Detroit, is about the extent of the incumbent's campaign. So, I think it becomes an issue there, too, and again, Romney needs to keep striking at least some of the chords that resonate with the base in the general so that at least some of the disaffected 50+% of primary voters who didn't want him come out to vote in November. In the media, it will be as Tom B. says - the metastory of inevitability that nearly failed to win one of the weakest primaries anyone can remember will dog him throughout the general.

  17. #817
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I was thinking the other day about, supposing Obama were to lose, how odd it would be to have a living 51-year old ex-President. So young. And what would he do? President tends to be the terminus of a political career. Can you imagine him running for Senate in Illinois again?

    Only one President has left office at a younger age, as Theodore Roosevelt was just 50. Grover Cleveland was 51 at the end of his first term, but came back for a second helping. Kennedy was 46 when he was murdered, but I suspect he'd have been re-elected in 1964, so he'd have been 51 upon leaving office in early 1969. Garfield was 49 when he was murdered, so he would have finished a first term at 53. I have no idea what his re-election prospects would have been. Franklin Pierce was 52 after his single term.

    It would be a fairly unusual situation, and unprecedented in the mass media era.

    http://wafflesatnoon.com/wp-content/...identsages.htm

    I can't imagine President Obama remaining in electoral politics. I would think Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, who both left office relatively young and have remained in public life in various ways, would be the models.

  18. #818
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    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    It's hard to say what Garfield's re-election prospects would have been, because he had served so little of his term. But he was a popular president when he was gunned down.
    Great, recent book on Garfield:

    http://www.amazon.com/Destiny-Republ...=AG56TWVU5XWC2

    I picked it up because I didn't know anything about him. Excellent and interesting story. Thesis is that he basically died from medical malpractice, not really the assassin's bullet.

    But an incredibly well-rounded and popular man. The story of his unplanned nomination at a two-day brokered convention (more than 40 votes taken IIRC) and his internecine feud with the other half of his own party (including his VP, who was part of the brokered deal) is fascinating.

  19. #819
    Quote Originally Posted by 77devil View Post

    I can't imagine President Obama remaining in electoral politics. I would think Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, who both left office relatively young and have remained in public life in various ways, would be the models.
    Probably right. People sometimes forget how young Clinton was -- he was only 46 when he was elected President (one year younger than Obama), and was 54 when he left the White House in 2001. He was only 30 when he was elected Attorney General of Arkansas, and 32 when he was elected governor of Arkansas the first time.

    Carter was 56 at the end of his Presidency.

  20. #820
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Probably right. People sometimes forget how young Clinton was -- he was only 46 when he was elected President (one year younger than Obama), and was 54 when he left the White House in 2001. He was only 30 when he was elected Attorney General of Arkansas, and 32 when he was elected governor of Arkansas the first time.

    Carter was 56 at the end of his Presidency.
    Even if he gets two terms, he will be very young when he leaves office. I don't see him fading into the woodwork.

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