Originally Posted by
tommy
Well, the caucusing in the caucausus has been completed, and I think the winner was . . . Barack Obama.
None of the GOP candidates really either exceeded or fell short of expectations
last night. But Romney now appears to have a more difficult road than he would
have had he shown stronger, or Santorum weaker. Yes, Santorum is still to be
"vetted" like the other flavors of the month were. But unless Romney was to
have swept Iowa and clinched this thing right out of the gate, which he didn't
do obviously, it seems to me that the more candidates that drop out after Iowa
and certainly after New Hampshire, the worse it is for Romney. He wants that
super-conservative vote to be split, rather than consolidate behind one
candidate like Santorum. He wants Huntsman in, so he, Romney, seems less
moderate by comparison.
So Bachman is out and Perry is for all intents and purposes out. Huntsman's
numbers are still pretty weak in New Hampshire, which is do or die for him.
With Santorum and Gingrich both continuing, this forces Romney to continue to
try to pretend he's a real conservative, and forces him to take ever more
extreme positions to "keep up" with what guys like Santorum are saying on the
far right. This is not good for Romney down the road, as everybody sees right
through what he's trying to do. This explains why his 25% in Iowa is the same
as he got four years ago, and it came from almost exactly the same demographic.
The same people who voted for him in 2008 voted for him again, because they
thought he could win, not because they actually liked him. That does not bode
well.
It is also not good for Romney in South Carolina. The Mormon thing is going to
be big there, as is the fact that he's not perceived as a true conservative.
Gingrich will be making his big stand there. Being from neighboring Georgia and, as another poster pointed out, the only one of the three who is a Christian (Santorum is a Catholic, which a
lot of good ole boys think is non-Christian), Gingrich may make things very
uncomfortable for Romney there, especially if he pulls out of New Hampshire (as
he should) and saves all his ammo for South Carolina. If he does OK there, he
can hang in for Florida, which is the big kahuna and also neighbors Georgia.
So I say it was a good result for Obama because, while the presumption that
Romney will be the ultimate nominee still stands, he's going to have to fight
longer, with more resources, in tougher terrain than he would've liked, and is
going to have to move even further to his right in order to ensure he wins.
Santorum doesn't have the money or organization to win, and Gingrich doesn't
have the personality or temperament or the ability to survive close scrutiny of
his background, and neither of course does Paul -- who I agree is going to jump
up in New Hampshire, by the way -- so ultimately I think Romney will win it, but
he'll be a weaker general election candidate than he could've been with
different results last night.