Ok, I am going to try something. It may be a bad idea, but I have faith in our community.

I want to see if we can talk about the Presidential race without getting into discussions of policy and who we like/hate and the such. We are just going to have an analytical and factual discussion about the GOP field. No passions, no ideological debates, no insults. Maybe we can do it, maybe we can't. I am hoping this will largely be a discussion place for polls and stuff like that.

Please know that I will be looking closely at this thread. If you get into an ideological debate, you are probably going to get dinged. Please prove me right in thinking we can handle this.

I'll start the discussion with the following --

I am shocked at the latest Intrade odds of winning the GOP nomination. Intrade still has Romney as the huge GOP favorite despite Gingrich's surge. Here are the odds--

Romney - 59.0%
Gingrich - 17.9%
Ron Paul - 7.5%
Huntsman - 7.5%
Perry - 3.4%
Bachman - 1.7%
Santorum - 0.7%

I know Romney has been the most logical choice for a loooong time but many polls now show him running 3rd in Iowa, well behind Gingrich and slightly behind Paul. His once big lead in New Hampshire has been whittled to single-digits in most polls, and we know there will be an Iowa bounce for the winner there. Nationally, among all GOP voters, he is trailing Gingrich by about 10 points. What's more, the races right after New Hampshire, Florida and South Carolina, both seem to greatly favor Gingrich.

I am seriously considering putting some money down on Gingrich as I think his odds of taking the nomination are muuuuch higher than 1-in-5 and his Intrade stock will bounce into at least the 30s if he wins Iowa.

-Jason "and now I hit submit new thread and HOPE that we can keep this very civil" Evans