PPP, which is a highly respected polling organization,
just released a new Iowa poll minutes ago. It is the first poll done in almost a week as most pollsters took a break for the Holiday weekend. Here is what it shows--
Paul 24
Romney 20
Gingrich 13
Bachman 11
Perry 10
Santorum 10
Huntsman 4
That is quite a tight race. PPP says Paul appears to be assembling the same core supporters who gave Obama victory in Iowa in 2008 -- young, independent-minded voters who are sick of the status quo. In fact, there are apparently a large number of self-identified Democrats and Independants who plan to come out to the GOP Caucus to vote for Paul. PPP says that if turnout is bad, they expect Romney to win but a strong turnout will almost certainly mean a victory for Paul.
Romney actually has a negative approval rating among likely GOP caucus-goers, 47 percent disapprove of him and only 44 percent approve. The consensus is that Paul voters are largely "true believers" in his cause. Most of the other voters are either pro or anti-Romney. Mitt is lucky there are 4 candidates dividing the "anti-Romney" vote fairly equally. If any one of the 4 can get some momentum in the final few days, it could vault that candidate to a surprise victory as there appears to be a lot of "anti-Romney" votes to be had in Iowa. There seems to be some thought that Santorum, who has put a ton of time in Iowa, may have the momentum now. I guess everyone else has had a shot, why not him?
-Jason "I root for interesting campaigns that last a long time, that is what I like" Evans