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  1. #1021
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    For get the Etch-a-Sketch. Arlen Specter just turned the Romney Analogymeter up to 11.

    Holy moly.
    Well, while I expect the etch-a-sketch line to be parroted by Obama's surrogates plenty in the fall, I would imagine that Spector's analogy will go largely unrepeated by anyone else.

    -Jason
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  2. #1022
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Well, while I expect the etch-a-sketch line to be parroted by Obama's surrogates plenty in the fall, I would imagine that Spector's analogy will go largely unrepeated by anyone else.

    -Jason
    While I don't think Spector's analogy resonates as cleanly as the etch-a-sketch one, I doubt we've heard the last of that line. It'll at least be repeated at the Democratic National Convention and in MSNBC montages.


    I was thinking this morning about the circular firing squad that will form if Romney gets the nomination but loses to Obama in November. Conservative Republicans will blame the moderates for another McCain/Dole candidate that many feel are too much like the Democrats to form a real contrast. Moderate Republicans will blame Santorum and Gingrich for forcing the nominee too far afield of mainstream electability. Many will blame Gingrich (be they pro-Romney or pro-Santorum) and Newt of course will blame the candidate himself for lacking "true conservative principles" (as he defines it). The "anyone but Obama" Republcians will blame the whole lot on being ineffective.

    Of course, winning solves a lot of problems. But the longer the fratricide goes on, the harder it's gonna be.

  3. #1023
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    Many will blame Gingrich (be they pro-Romney or pro-Santorum) and Newt of course will blame the candidate himself for lacking "true conservative principles" (as he defines it).
    That, and Newt will blame the media. Just 'cause that's his thing.

  4. #1024
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    For get the Etch-a-Sketch. Arlen Specter just turned the Romney Analogymeter up to 11.

    Holy moly.
    24.gif24.gif24.gif
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  5. #1025
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    Gingrich cut his staff pretty radically, and Adelson has apparently said that Gingrich is at the end of his line.

    Santorum is effectively done if he does not win Wisconsin Tuesday.

    {sigh} it was fun while it lasted.

  6. #1026
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Gingrich cut his staff pretty radically, and Adelson has apparently said that Gingrich is at the end of his line.

    Santorum is effectively done if he does not win Wisconsin Tuesday.

    {sigh} it was fun while it lasted.
    You can hardly blame the press for grasping at straws to prolong the contest for the presidential nomination. After all, there could be five months with nothing but speculation on who the VP nominee will be. Triple-yawn!

    sage

  7. #1027
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    You can hardly blame the press for grasping at straws to prolong the contest for the presidential nomination. After all, there could be five months with nothing but speculation on who the VP nominee will be. Triple-yawn!

    sage
    Yup, the silly season will be upon us. That, and Mitt and Obama sniping at each other. Fir the next half year.

    Ugh.

  8. #1028
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    You can hardly blame the press for grasping at straws to prolong the contest for the presidential nomination. After all, there could be five months with nothing but speculation on who the VP nominee will be. Triple-yawn!

    sage
    Democtat or republican VP nominee?

  9. #1029
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    Maryland, DC, and (it appears) Wisconsin all go to Romney tonight. A few weeks ago it looked like Wisconsin especially would be very competitive for Santorum -- heck, there were polls that gave him a double-digit lead there -- but I think we are seeing a "get behind the inevitable nominee" effect right now that is pushing Romney a good deal.

    It is over. At this point it would take a fairly significant scandal to turn things around.

    --Jason "so, is it time to start a general election thread" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  10. #1030
    Gingrich killed Santorum. Selfish, uncaring, egocentric. Rick would have overtaken Romney without Newt in the mix, even with only 50% of his support. Ron Paul will stay in until the end...everyone knows this. Sorry Rick. Santorum is the only candidate that can defeat Obama. It would be a crushing landslide, I believe. Mitt may win or may lose. Good luck.

  11. #1031
    Quote Originally Posted by Verga3 View Post
    Gingrich killed Santorum. Selfish, uncaring, egocentric. Rick would have overtaken Romney without Newt in the mix, even with only 50% of his support. Ron Paul will stay in until the end...everyone knows this. Sorry Rick. Santorum is the only candidate that can defeat Obama. It would be a crushing landslide, I believe. Mitt may win or may lose. Good luck.
    Really? Almost every poll I see shows Romney running better in the general election than Santorum. According to Real Clear Politics, which averages polls, Obama leads Romney by an average of 4.3 points, but leads Santorum by an average of 7.8 points (all polls within the last three weeks). Even Rassmussen, which has been wildly pre-Republican in the last three cycles has Obama comfortably ahead of Santorum (while it's the only recent poll that has Romney ahead of the President):

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-1171.html

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...bama-2912.html

    What evidence do you offer than Santorum would beat Obama in "a crushing landslide" or even that he has a better chance to win than Romney?

  12. #1032
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    Where's the love in this thread for the Duke grad in the race?
    "Carpe Humulus lupulus" - Devildeac

  13. #1033
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Maryland, DC, and (it appears) Wisconsin all go to Romney tonight. A few weeks ago it looked like Wisconsin especially would be very competitive for Santorum -- heck, there were polls that gave him a double-digit lead there -- but I think we are seeing a "get behind the inevitable nominee" effect right now that is pushing Romney a good deal.

    It is over. At this point it would take a fairly significant scandal to turn things around.

    --Jason "so, is it time to start a general election thread" Evans
    Santorum may not even win Pennsylvania. (Again). I don't think Rick will be sending Newt a Christmas card this year, either. But, Santorum has raised his profile and made himself a contender for 2016 if Romney loses to Obama.

    If/when a general election thread is started -- I'm all for it but I am sure it will be more difficult to keep clear of PPB stuff. I have really enjoyed this thread, and thanks to you for starting it and the other mods for helping to nurse it along in a respectful and interesting fashion.

    -- OPK

  14. #1034
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    It's About Delegates

    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Maryland, DC, and (it appears) Wisconsin all go to Romney tonight. A few weeks ago it looked like Wisconsin especially would be very competitive for Santorum -- heck, there were polls that gave him a double-digit lead there -- but I think we are seeing a "get behind the inevitable nominee" effect right now that is pushing Romney a good deal.

    It is over. At this point it would take a fairly significant scandal to turn things around.

    --Jason "so, is it time to start a general election thread" Evans
    Romney beat Santorum by only 43% to 38% in Wisconsin. Yet Romney won all the delegates. Am I missing something?

    Edit: Oops! Santorum won nine delegates to Romney's 30. Not as lopsided as I thought.

    sage
    Last edited by sagegrouse; 04-04-2012 at 08:30 AM. Reason: Added edit

  15. #1035
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    Quote Originally Posted by Verga3 View Post
    Gingrich killed Santorum. Selfish, uncaring, egocentric. Rick would have overtaken Romney without Newt in the mix, even with only 50% of his support. Ron Paul will stay in until the end...everyone knows this. Sorry Rick. Santorum is the only candidate that can defeat Obama. It would be a crushing landslide, I believe. Mitt may win or may lose. Good luck.
    If you can't even win your own party's nomination, there is no way that you win the general election in " a crushing landslide". I don't think Santorum would have done very will in the general, he's too far right to carry the popular vote. (Being too far right kept him beating Romney also, not Newt.)

    However, as a Democrat and liberal, I would have loved for Santorum to be the nominee, just for the reasons I posted above. Romney has a much better chance against Obama.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  16. #1036
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Santorum has raised his profile and made himself a contender for 2016 if Romney loses to Obama.
    It will be interesting to see where the GOP goes if they lose this election. The polls right now do not look good for anyone against Obama, but a ton will change between now and November. Still, there is little question that if the election were held today, Obama would get something like 325 or 350 electoral votes... if not more.

    Anyway, my point is that the GOP probably feels like it went with the "moderate" in this election. If he loses, will they try to go even more moderate next time around -- someone like Huntsman, perhaps -- or would they jog even further to the right. If they go more Conservative, one would have to think that Santorum would be an early front-runner.

    If nothing else, one would hope that if Rick decides to run again, he will be better funded and organized allowing him to actually be on the ballot everywhere he should be.

    -Jason "I'll probably wait a bit to start the General Election thread -- not really much to say yet" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  17. #1037
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It will be interesting to see where the GOP goes if they lose this election. The polls right now do not look good for anyone against Obama, but a ton will change between now and November. Still, there is little question that if the election were held today, Obama would get something like 325 or 350 electoral votes... if not more.

    Anyway, my point is that the GOP probably feels like it went with the "moderate" in this election. If he loses, will they try to go even more moderate next time around -- someone like Huntsman, perhaps -- or would they jog even further to the right. If they go more Conservative, one would have to think that Santorum would be an early front-runner.

    If nothing else, one would hope that if Rick decides to run again, he will be better funded and organized allowing him to actually be on the ballot everywhere he should be.

    -Jason "I'll probably wait a bit to start the General Election thread -- not really much to say yet" Evans
    I commented on a circular firing squad somewhere upthread, and think that's the likely result if Mitt loses. The conservative wing looks at Dole, McCain, and Mitt (if he loses) and feels that the problem is that the candidates are not conservative enough to distinguish themselves from the Democrats. "If only we had Ronald Reagan" -- (even though Reagan would be seen as a moderate or liberal by today's GOP standards, but I digress). The moderates, meanwhile, will blame the right wing for pulling the eventual nominee so far out of the "mainstream" that positions on contraception, etc. alienate the independents and important swing groups (such as women, where Romney now has a sizeable disadvantage to Obama per a poll I saw this morning).

    The Tea Party faction, the Country Club faction, and the Evangelical faction are an uneasy alliance. Reagan was able to gather them all together under a big tent and GHWB rode his coattails against a weak Democrat. Since then, though, it's sort of been tough sledding -- I would argue that W's wins had more to do with weak Democratic competition (and a 5-4 Supreme Court vote) than a happy marriage of the GOP factions, although that's probalby for another day. The point, though, is that there is a real wedge between those factions right now and it will be interesting to see if a straight-out dislike of Obama is enough to gather everyone around a candidate with little grass root passion.

  18. #1038
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post

    If you can't even win your own party's nomination, there is no way that you win the general election in " a crushing landslide".

    Ronald Reagan says, "Hi."

  19. #1039
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tom B. View Post
    Ronald Reagan says, "Hi."
    I'm no historian, but I'm pretty sure he won the nomination in 1980.


    Reagan, who planned to run for the White House on the theme “Make America Great Again,” was staying at the Detroit Renaissance Center — at the time the world’s tallest hotel — when he got the news he had so long desired.
    Compared with 1976, reporters viewed this GOP conclave as a bit of a snoozer. Four years earlier, Reagan had come close to wresting the nomination from Gerald Ford, the incumbent president. This time around, Reagan had breezed through the primaries, after initially stumbling in the Iowa caucuses, where George H.W. Bush, a former CIA director, had prevailed.
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0710/39806.html
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  20. #1040
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post

    I'm no historian, but I'm pretty sure he won the nomination in 1980.

    Right, but he had lost it in 1976. I thought that was the point of the original post -- candidates don't lose the nomination one year and then go on to win the nomination and then win the Presidency by a big margin in the next election. Generally this is true, but there are exceptions. That's basically what Reagan did in 1976 and 1980.

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