Phase II runs from the Colorado State game through Temple, our last pre-ACC game. We finished Phase I with a 7-1 record and are looking at a slower stretch with 4 home games plus a trip to the Garden and a trip to Philly.

1) Health – This is a pretty deep Duke team, so health is big but not necessarily a season-changer. We came through Phase 1 with one outstanding health issue - Alex. Did Alex’s concussion put him on the shelf for the season? Seems possible.

2) Team Defense – Duke’s defense is not up to par right now and I would expect this to be the biggest area of growth for the team in Phase 2. Through the first phase, they have played D well at times, but not for a full game and not the type of D that buries an opponent.
Perimeter D – Do we need some defensive minutes out of Gbinije in a Tyler Thornton-like stopper role? Can guards stop dribble penetration more, or do we change the scheme to contain? I’ll let the x and o experts tackles that last question, but it’s a concern.

Interior D – I am generally pleased with how our bigs have played on D so far. Their role could adjust with the defensive scheme of our perimeter players to more help, rotations and shot blocking. One point I see the need to improve upon is our bigs getting back on D, helping to prevent transition buckets.

Team D – Rotations to the help side have improved over Phase 1. The bigs need to help out when someone dribbles into the lane and I’ve seen a step in the right direction. Our guards need to help on the boards occasionally, in return. It’s hard via the tele to comment on communication, but I’d assume that fits with the leadership and chemistry thing mentioned at the end of this post. We seem to be playing a slightly slower pace, which could accelerate in Phase 2. But pace means learning to get back in transition and getting into the passing lanes. Can we increase pace, hurrying up lesser teams without turning the ball over too much?

Gimmick D – We used the 1-3-1 soft press once or twice in Phase 1 and the zone in Maui for one end of game possession (vs Tenn?). Those are useful tools to break out on occasion.

Transition – We need easy buckets. We need to generate them via D. How do we improve on this?

3) Rotation - We have gone 9 deep in the first half and 7 deep in the second half, so far. Can Josh and Quinn get consistent minutes, or will they be first half guys for the most part? The only real discussion is will anyone from the 8-11 bunch get more minutes? We have a shorter bench in tight games which should be shocking to no one. We have not had a serious foul trouble game…yet. Josh will be needed at some point in a tight game, probably Phase 3 in January on the road in the ACC, so I am glad he’s getting a few minutes now. I am not sure I care to speculate on minutes a ton, but Gbinije can earn some burn by performing in Phase 2.

4) Austin Rivers - This kid can get into the lane. Hot darn. He’s elite. He needs to keep his head up and either shoot the floater or drop off a pass to a big. I think this will increase the overall team offensive efficiency, and also create space for him to finish better in the lane. I said very purposefully that he can get into the lane at will. Next step is getting to the rim. No more charges or turnovers, finish those plays. Then he can start asserting himself at the right times. He’s a smart kid and he will become a killer soon. He wants it. A nit here: He needs to only shoot 3s in rhythm.

The biggest concern people have had about Austin was how he’d fit into the team. He has a great attitude and he’s reflective in a really positive way. That is wonderful to see, and has led to a ton of improvement in a month, so how much improvement can he make over the whole season? This kid is going to take off. In Phase 0, Kedsy said he thought Austin would follow the Barnes trajectory and I thought the same a month ago. But he’s not had a funky stretch lasting more than a half so far. He has the ball in his hands a good bit more than Barns last year and is not dealing with Larry Drew either.

He has only failed to score in double figures vs Michigan State this year. He’s reduced his turnovers from the first few games. He’s got 18 turnovers and 18 assists so far. Austin will make the leap in January, a month faster than Barnes. I’m feeling it. Oh yeah, he’s leading the team in scoring after 8 games.

5) Big Man Offense – This has been a focus so far. Let’s hope it remains so for purposes of offensive balance. Mason looks good, in that he is pretty assertive and shows no fear in shooting the ball. With more attempts, he’ll start hitting some of those jump hooks more often and gain confidence. Mason is leading the team in turnovers, so that’s a problem. He has games with 3, 3 and 5 field goal attempts, so it seems we are inconsistent in feeding him.

Ryan is playing well as the proverbial stretch 4. He had three straight games scoring 17, then 0 vs OSU. That’s something that I’m not sure how to describe: frustrating? evidence of a problem? Hmmm. Ryan needs to be more assertive and get a little meaner on the court. He’s a starter and a captain. Own it! Half his shots are 3s. Is that going to be the case all year? Do we need more rebounding and shotblocking out of him?

Miles can finish and he can body up on D. We can count on that. He’s got our Team D scheme down pat better than any of our top 6 in my opinion. To become a really big contributor on a title contender (our goal here), Miles should channel his inner-Zoubek and clean the glass. If he can up his offensive rebounding stats, he’ll be big in crunch minutes and can do that rebound, kick out for a 3 thing that Zoubek did so well. Miles’ stats are flat from his Sophomore to Senior years so I think making offensive rebounding his main mission could be the right thing for him. In Phase 1, his minutes have ranged from 8 to 23. If 23 is the upper bound and 17 is most likely, he should play with incredible intensity when he’s in there. He’s a fully evolved senior right now. He is who is, so now is the time to maximize what he’s good at (physical D, leaping ability, second leap) and minimize fouls and TOs.

Josh? He has two games with double figure minutes – PC and OSU – 29 combined minutes, 15 pts, 7 rebounds, 7-9 fgs. Will his productivity increase with increased, consistent usage? He’s not going to be a big offensive option, but he can help open things up for others and earn some minutes.

6) Andre Dawkins – Dawkins can disappear, reappear, etc. I really think his role is determined by the coaches and if they want more Andre, they need to adjust the offensive sets to get him shots. They can do that with more set plays, including set plays out of timeouts. Andre needs to develop a shot fake, his dribble drive and some mid range game to take a step as an offensive player. I also think he would get some nice open looks in a transition game. Andre (and maybe Ryan too) needs to play not just with sense of urgency, but also aggression. Andre can become our knockout punch guy.

Here’s a look at his stats:
• Minutes (and points) so far: 21 (6), 22 (4), 38 (26), 20 (5), 32 (10), 35 (14), 34 (6), 19 (0).
• 8.9 ppg, 27.6 minutes. Throw out the 26 vs. Mich St and it’s 6.5 points a game.
• Shooting .447 from 3. (Get him more shots!)

7) Point Guard - Seth is our starting point guard. Austin has the ball in his hands a lot. That’s the way it will be going forward. One of the things we can get better at is post feeds and pushing the pace. In Phase 2, against lesser teams, we’ll push the pace more, right?

I am pretty sure our offensive chemistry is not yet where it will be by the end of the year. But it’s getting better on the offensive end. The timing and location of screens needs to get better. Guys need to settle into better defined roles. How much of this is incumbent upon Seth growing into a more true point? I don’t know exactly, but I’m guessing it’s going to be a mix this year. The point guard position can collectively get us easier buckets (push the pace, execute) and also cut down on turnovers (get the ball in right place, right time). They can also force some turnovers by pressuring the ball.

I think we’ll see some new wrinkles in Phase 2, on set plays like lobs, out of bounds plays, and at the end of half. This is an incredibly valuable month to practice as a team and get better, as opposed to the rapid pace of games we had in November and will have from January on. I think Seth improves a lot during Phase 2 at running the team.

8) Leadership, Chemistry and Communication – This team is built out of former role players and a freshman. So while some of these guys have a lot of playing time the last few years and are talented, they were typically deferring to Jon, Kyle and Nolan. As they settle into their on-court roles I hope to see the killer instinct grow. In Phase 1 they allowed Belmont and Michigan State to sneak back into games. So the goal for Phase 2 ought to be to finish off an opponent.

Mason and Seth are emerging as leaders. Austin is emerging as our best offensive player. Coach K seems to trust Tyler as much as he did past leaders, like he is the coach’s proxy on the court like Duhon or Battier or Hurley were.

Coach K’s record is over and done with, a tough stretch of games behind us. We have a month of practice to get better, learn new things, get reps. This is the stretch of the season where Duke will either become a title contender or will be an inconsistent but really good team. With the wake-up call that was Ohio State, Duke should be properly motivated to work hard and get better.

Here’s some point in time metrics, closing out Phase 1.
• .469 FG% (down from .492 pre-OSU. Darn).
• .446 Opp FG%.
• .681 FT% (229 to 152 in attempts).
• .432 3pt%.
• +8 Rebounding differential on the season (total, not per game).
• -4 Offensive Rebound differential on the season, total. Doh!
• A:TO ratio: 93:108. Doh!
• 7.8 Steals per game.
• KenPom: 7th overall; AdjO: 116.3 (7th); AdjD: 90.6 (18th).
• Only averaging 77 points a game. This should increase in Phase 2, but we need to push pace more and get more secondary break points.
• Good: 23rd in FG %. 20th in 3pt % - 8 for 19 per game.
• Bad: 274th in rebounding, 249th in assists. 200th in steals. 217th in blocks.