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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    I thought that it was a weak perimeter defensive effort from Michigan and another example of a good outside shooting from Duke covering for a poor post offense.To date, the post offense consists of offensive rebounds from 3's. This is a good Duke team, but there is no way they win a title without better effort and results getting easy baskets inside with the bigs and keeping teams honest. Teams are going to stay on the shooters sooner or later and these high %'s are coming down. Duke will have to improve post play as the season goes along.
    You're probably right about improvement and the need for post offense.

    Still, how many teams can defend the outside shooting of a team that has Kelly, Curry, Rivers, and Dawkins on the floor along with good ball movement.
    Can't cover them all.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Nice scoring balance. I think we are starting to see how things will happen with this team.
    With Seth, Andre, Austin, and RK, we seem to have four double figure scorers. RKs
    versatility has moved him ahead of the Plumlees IMHO in importance. In particular,
    his excellent free throw shooting will make him a huge defensive and rebounding
    presence at the end of close games, wheras the Plumlees cannot be left out there
    when the other team starts to foul. He may even win some close games for us like
    that this year.

    The Plumlees seem to go up and down depending on the quality of the defense.
    Against shorter defenders, they are effective. Against better (taller) ones they
    aren't. However, RKs emergence has taken a lot of the scoring pressure off of
    them; I'd say a combination of the two for 14 a game will be enough. Mason has
    to stop driving from too far away from the basket.

    Austin got lucky from area-code range tonight; not sure he should be cranking those
    all the time.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    I thought that it was a weak perimeter defensive effort from Michigan and another example of a good outside shooting from Duke covering for a poor post offense.

    To date, the post offense consists of offensive rebounds from 3's. This is a good Duke team, but there is no way they win a title without better effort and results getting easy baskets inside with the bigs and keeping teams honest. Teams are going to stay on the shooters sooner or later and these high %'s are coming down.

    Duke will have to improve post play as the season goes along.
    Well, Wheat's obviously impressed.

    I thought they played a nice game against a good team. You'd think if the Plumlees have a game like this that Duke wouldn't stand a chance, but Kelly's really balling right now, and the guard play has been fantastic. I still think Thornton is a physical liability defensively -- sorry, but I do -- but he definitely busts his tail and everyone picks up on it. And Rivers... what can I say? I think the early-season scrutiny of him has been absurd. Throw out a shaky game against Michigan State and he's scored over 15 in the other four games. He's already showing more of an inclination to draw the defense and kick it out. But this is our Twitter society -- we make a great deal over small sample sizes. Rivers played a certain way in one game, so he must be that kind of player, right?

    Anyway, this season has been a joy to watch so far. I love seeing young players come into their own. My only criticism is that I think both Cook and Hairston should be seeing more court time, especially Cook, but it's hard to complain about anything else. They'll take their lumps at some point, but it's a fun team to watch develop.

  4. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    I thought that it was a weak perimeter defensive effort from Michigan and another example of a good outside shooting from Duke covering for a poor post offense.

    To date, the post offense consists of offensive rebounds from 3's. This is a good Duke team, but there is no way they win a title without better effort and results getting easy baskets inside with the bigs and keeping teams honest. Teams are going to stay on the shooters sooner or later and these high %'s are coming down.

    Duke will have to improve post play as the season goes along.
    Well, with outside shooting and offensive rebounds, we can do a lot more than you think. We have one banner that came from that and good defense. Plus, I don't think that there is any team that is head and shoulders above anybody else this season. They can market UNC as great, but they are basically the same team as last year (not much improved from it, and their new players play like role players that graduated last year so far). A weak schedule has left me without much to go on when trying to gauge how good they are, but I am not impressed to this point. Kentucky has already struggled in some games against lower opposition. I think Ohio State may be the toughest team overall because of the solid play of Kraft and Sullinger (Sullinger impresses me with his maturity and physicality down low). Time will tell, but this is anybody's race. I like what we are doing so far (we're young, but we are putting the pieces together).

  5. #25

    Plus/Minus and Linuep combinations

    Not a lot of separation by player or combination. The starters played a lot together again, half the game with Ryan and another 6 minutes with Miles:

    Occurs Duke Michigan +/- Time Line-Up

    5 40 36 +4 19.9 Seth-Austin-Dre-Mason-Ryan

    4 09 05 +4 05.8 Seth-Austin-Dre-Ryan-Miles

    2 07 05 +2 03.5 Seth-Austin-Ryan-Miles-Tyler

    1 07 04 +3 03.3 Dre-Mason-Ryan-Tyler-Quinn

    1 06 03 +3 02.5 Seth-Austin-Dre-Mason-Miles

    1 02 05 -3 01.9 Austin-Dre-Mason-Ryan-Tyler

    1 11 12 -1 01.6 Seth-Austin-Dre-Ryan-Tyler

    1 00 00 00 00.8 Dre-Mason-Tyler-Quinn-Josh

    2 00 03 -3 00.5 Austin-Dre-Ryan-Miles-Tyler

    1 00 02 -2 00.2 Seth-Austin-Dre-Mason-Tyler

    19 82 75 +7 40.0 Total


    On individual +/-:

    Duke Mich +/- +/min -/min +/-/min

    73 65 +8 2.1 1.9 +0.2 Dre
    53 45 +8 2.0 1.7 +0.3 Mason

    75 68 +7 2.1 1.9 +0.2 Seth
    76 70 +6 2.1 1.9 +0.2 Ryan

    75 71 +4 2.1 2.0 +0.1 Austin
    24 21 +3 1.7 1.5 +0.2 Miles
    07 04 +3 1.7 1.0 +0.7 Quiinn

    00 00 00 0.0 0.0 00.0 Josh

    27 31 (4) 2.3 2.6 (0.3) Tyler

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    20 Minutes From The Heaven That Is Cameron Indoor
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    I thought that it was a weak perimeter defensive effort from Michigan and another example of a good outside shooting from Duke covering for a poor post offense.

    To date, the post offense consists of offensive rebounds from 3's. This is a good Duke team, but there is no way they win a title without better effort and results getting easy baskets inside with the bigs and keeping teams honest. Teams are going to stay on the shooters sooner or later and these high %'s are coming down.

    Duke will have to improve post play as the season goes along.
    Let me guess. You have watched a grand total of 2 Duke games this year? Mich St/Mich? Duke has been scoring in the post all year. As mentioned in the MIch St thread, Mason either scored or a drew a foul on about 80+% of his post touches in the Mich State game, and Ryan played well that game also.

    Tonight Ryan had 17, scoring in a variety of ways. Mason did not get a lot of touches tonight, and Mich St double teamed the post every single time. They have to, because they can't contain the post playing one on one. So wisely, in a lot of cases, Mason kicked it back out to shooters, which is exactly what he should do in that situation.

    This team is very much fine offensively right now, getting points from multiple players (5 guys averaging double figures), and scoring multiple ways. (Bigs in the post, Austin with drives, and the others with mid-range offense and 3's). Great balance.

    And Mason is averaging a double/double but you would think he was the worse player in College Basketball from reading some of the comments on this board.

    The Carolina Way:
    169 student-athletes had at least 1 semester where the grade in their paper class either pushed or kept their GPA above 2.0. At least 1 semester each of those students had recalculated GPA (excluding the paper class grade(s))below a 2.0. This includes 123 FB players, 15 Men's BB players. 81 students earned degrees from Chapel Hill whose recalculated final GPA excluding the grade(s) from their paper class or classes was less than the 2.0 required to graduate.

  7. #27
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    I hate to agree with Wheat...

    But at least from the boxscore, he's right. Our effective shooting percentage before this game was already one of the best in the country per Pomeroy, and then we shot 10% better than our season average, and almost all of that came because of the three (for most of the game our unadjusted shooting percentage from three was better than from two or from the FT line!) We will face teams that keep up with us on the perimeter, and I don't see much evidence that our bigs will keep them honest in the post....

  8. #28
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Gthoma2a View Post
    Well, with outside shooting and offensive rebounds, we can do a lot more than you think. We have one banner that came from that and good defense. Plus, I don't think that there is any team that is head and shoulders above anybody else this season. They can market UNC as great, but they are basically the same team as last year (not much improved from it, and their new players play like role players that graduated last year so far). A weak schedule has left me without much to go on when trying to gauge how good they are, but I am not impressed to this point. Kentucky has already struggled in some games against lower opposition. I think Ohio State may be the toughest team overall because of the solid play of Kraft and Sullinger (Sullinger impresses me with his maturity and physicality down low). Time will tell, but this is anybody's race. I like what we are doing so far (we're young, but we are putting the pieces together).
    I agree to an extent. We have an offense that is or will be as good as any in the nation. I do not, however, think that we have the ability to defend those offenses of our caliber (all the teams you've named).

    We'll most certainly know more when UNC and UK play and we play OSU. Uconn should play FSU at the end of the week, which will give us SOME better indication than we've had so far.

    If you had to ask me for predictions: UNC blows out UK, who being young makes mistakes early in the year only to improve later (remember last year uconn beat them by 20 in maui and then UK makes the final four and was a shot away from making the championship game)

    I think OSU goes down low early, and either scores with ease or puts the plumlees in foul trouble (if tonight is any indication, mashall may start seeing some minutes in that game). I think we start taking bad shots on offense and lose by 15+ (which is generally how we lose games as we try to take 3's to catch up and end up more in a hole)
    9f

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by hq2 View Post
    RKs versatility has moved him ahead of the Plumlees IMHO in importance.
    Ryan Kelly is an extremely valuable member of this team. Who knows, by the time April rolls around, he very well may be the team's Most Valuable Player; however, I caution against undervaluing the contributions of Mason and Miles. Those two are our main interior guys and we need them for rebounding, and defense, and rebounding, and low post scoring, and rebounding, and ... you get my point. To borrow a favorite "catch phrase" from the "talking heads," Ryan Kelly is a stretch four much more than he is an interior player.

    I 100 percent agree with you his free throw shooting could win a game or three for us this season. RK is money from the line.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Mount Kisco, NY
    Fantastic win.

    -We had a stretch of offense in the first half that was the best we have looked all year on that end of the court. We kept setting up effective isolation for nearly everyone on the floor, the starters were in for their second stint together, and it opened a small window into how lethal an offensive force these guys can be. Rather than being top heavy with one or two big time scorers, everyone on the floor can score and each was aggressively hunting his shot. Rivers was born aggressive, and Seth showed us last year that he wasn't shy. Mason and Kelly are newly aggressive this year, and tonight Dawkins was actively working for his shot, not just taking what fell into his lap within the motion. It was sublime. We couldn't maintain it, but it's a gear we haven't shown yet and I am glad that it exists.

    -Kelly, Rivers, Curry and Dawkins all played great/ Loved seeing Rivers' playmaking.

    -I don't think it's fair to lump Mason in with Miles as "the Plumlees" as in "if the Plumlees don't pick it up". Mason has stepped out of that shadow this year and I though he was effective early despite the offensive fouls. Michigan changed up their defenses to disrupt that isolation flow we had going in the first and it wasn't as easy for him to catch and operate.

    -Thornton's penetration and dish to Mason for a dunk to extend the lead from 6 to 8 with 11+ left was a huge play at the time. He followed it a few plays later with that smart decision to dribble cross court and hit Seth in stride for the 3 rather than passing straight up to Austin. In between those two plays, Miles got a huge o-board and putback to keep us up 8. It was a key two minute sequence in the game.

    -Michigan is a nice squad. Burke is a really good freshman point guard, Hardaway Jr. is really tough. We'd all love to have Novak on our team. They fought to the very end. Michigan should be thrilled that Beilein is bringing back their program (no offense, Tommy).

    -Our guys logged big minutes tonight. With Kansas seemingly headed for an easy win, I am sure we'll be the more run-down team tomorrow. Our guys seem tough, though. I can't wait to see what they've got because they've given us a lot to get excited about these first few weeks so far.

  11. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by Starter View Post
    Well, Wheat's obviously impressed.

    I thought they played a nice game against a good team. You'd think if the Plumlees have a game like this that Duke wouldn't stand a chance, but Kelly's really balling right now, and the guard play has been fantastic. I still think Thornton is a physical liability defensively -- sorry, but I do -- but he definitely busts his tail and everyone picks up on it. And Rivers... what can I say? I think the early-season scrutiny of him has been absurd. Throw out a shaky game against Michigan State and he's scored over 15 in the other four games. He's already showing more of an inclination to draw the defense and kick it out. But this is our Twitter society -- we make a great deal over small sample sizes. Rivers played a certain way in one game, so he must be that kind of player, right?

    Anyway, this season has been a joy to watch so far. I love seeing young players come into their own. My only criticism is that I think both Cook and Hairston should be seeing more court time, especially Cook, but it's hard to complain about anything else. They'll take their lumps at some point, but it's a fun team to watch develop.
    Agree wholeheartedly on the Cook/Hairston more PT comment. Cook is a star in the making, and Hairston gets a lot of loose balls, plays tough D, hits the open mid-range jumper, and rarely turns the ball over. Of course, all four guards playing ahead of Cook were very good tonight so it is tough to argue that any of them should have rested more tonight. I think it bears watching to see if Hairston can improve to the point that he is stealing minutes from Miles as the season progresses.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Boca Grande Florida
    I am impressed with this team. Some serious shooters out there and they are playing hard.

    But the inside game has to get better, and it can. Mason, Miles and Kelly have the ability to post up, but the offense is not looking to do that. They' ve been just bombing away.

    That may be coach K's plan to give the guards some confidence shooting early in the season before turning some focus to the inside later, but I believe they will have to get better inside offense to
    go deep in the tourney.
    Wheat/"/"/"
    "An angry man catches no fish"-Zen proverb.

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I agree to an extent. We have an offense that is or will be as good as any in the nation. I do not, however, think that we have the ability to defend those offenses of our caliber (all the teams you've named).

    We'll most certainly know more when UNC and UK play and we play OSU. Uconn should play FSU at the end of the week, which will give us SOME better indication than we've had so far.

    If you had to ask me for predictions: UNC blows out UK, who being young makes mistakes early in the year only to improve later (remember last year uconn beat them by 20 in maui and then UK makes the final four and was a shot away from making the championship game)

    I think OSU goes down low early, and either scores with ease or puts the plumlees in foul trouble (if tonight is any indication, mashall may start seeing some minutes in that game). I think we start taking bad shots on offense and lose by 15+ (which is generally how we lose games as we try to take 3's to catch up and end up more in a hole)
    I don't know. It depends on a bunch of factors. We have better guards than all of those teams but Kentucky (we are still probably better, but not by as wide a margin). Kelly spreads the floor effectively now (that is a key). The main threat with OSU is down low, but if we focus our efforts on preventing entry passes to the post, we can marginalize that. I don't think Kraft is that athletic or effective against our guards. I also think that our guard depth will serve us well if we can stay in it early. The rankings seem off to me and I think that we will do better than some people think.

    I think that location will serve Kentucky well against UNC. They have Jones and Lamb back. Those two guys are very talented and have a year of being on a growing team to guide their new bevy of talent. I think that the intensity of Rupp helps them to beat UNC. It is a crazy place and they have ridiculous talent this year. They are better than any Cal has had. Early mistakes could cost them, but they have enough to push them past their mistakes. UNC seems like a bland team IMO. Watching them, I tend to be bored and thinking that they are good, but predictable and overrated (think workman-like). I honestly feel that they haven't gotten better this year, but are playing like the same team as they were to end the season (good, but not great). It could be that I am just watching them play with limited effort against limited opposition, but I haven't seen something that makes me scared of them.

  14. #34
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    Feb 2007
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by DUKIE V(A) View Post
    ...and Hairston gets a lot of loose balls, plays tough D, hits the open mid-range jumper, and rarely turns the ball over...
    Hairston was 4-6 from the field against Presbyterian. He has not scored in the other four games (0-3 from the field). On the season, he has one assist against three turnovers. I acknowledge he has had limited opportunity so far this season, but I have a hard time figuring out where he fits in the rotation. He appears to be a tweener - not big enough to be a power forward but not quick enough to be a small forward. I expect he will see some minutes during non-conference games in December, but once the ACC schedule starts on January 7, I suspect his minutes will become few and far between barring serious foul trouble.
    Bob Green
    United States Navy (Retired)
    @JBobGreen

  15. #35
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    Mar 2008
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    Wilson NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    I thought that it was a weak perimeter defensive effort from Michigan and another example of a good outside shooting from Duke covering for a poor post offense.

    To date, the post offense consists of offensive rebounds from 3's. This is a good Duke team, but there is no way they win a title without better effort and results getting easy baskets inside with the bigs and keeping teams honest. Teams are going to stay on the shooters sooner or later and these high %'s are coming down.

    Duke will have to improve post play as the season goes along.
    This actually makes me feel pretty good about this team. I can recall Wheat's analysis of the 2010 team and we all know what that team did!


    Quote Originally Posted by Wheat/"/"/" View Post
    Happy Thanksgiving....

    Both teams I saw last night looked weak with interior play.

    Miles Plumlee is going to be a good player. A really good player. He just has a little ways to go....

    Other than him, Duke struggles to get any above average play from the inside positions. The horses are just not there.

    Scheyer was the best player on the floor, no question.

    Smith was Duke's quickest player, but was hesitant to use his gift. Not sure why.

    I liked Dawkin's focus and stroke. Very good, comfortable ealy season game for the freshman.

    I have yet to see Mason Plumlee play, but we know 9 out of 10 freshmen would struggle to impact the big games that are on the horizon. He better be the second coming of Hansbrough if Duke thinks they will get past the sweet sixteen this year.
    Sure sounds familiar. Go Duke!

  16. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gthoma2a View Post
    The main threat with OSU is down low, but if we focus our efforts on preventing entry passes to the post, we can marginalize that.
    I question our ability to do that though. We were not able to do that against arizona in the spring, and we have lost arguably our two best perimeter defenders. Our porous perimeter defense (perhaps that's slightly harsh) will mean that our bigs likely have to hedge a little to help. Point being that I don't think we can deny sullinger the ball without sacrificing defense elsewhere, and I don't think that we have the defensive prowess down low to stop him (not necessarily a knock on our guys, just that sullinger is really really good).

    Again, this doesn't mean we won't be able to score points exploiting our strength on the perimeter offensively, just that they will be extremely efficient offensively against us, and the larger variance of jump shooting could put us behind at any given point, when we have a tendency to take more and more 3 pointers to try to "catch up"

    We will see what happens. Again, this is just my prediction. Obviously I hope I am wrong.
    9f

  17. #37
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    Cambridge, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by DownEastDevil View Post
    This actually makes me feel pretty good about this team. I can recall Wheat's analysis of the 2010 team and we all know what that team did!
    My all-time favorite comment on this board comes early in that season, when Duke lost at, I believe, Wisconsin. Wheat claimed that the UNC second string was as good or better than the Duke starting five. That's an NIT bench being better than the national champion starters. I've never seen any analysis been that wrong, in any sport, ever.

  18. #38
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    Boca Grande Florida
    Quote Originally Posted by Newton_14 View Post
    Let me guess. You have watched a grand total....
    I have seen enough to know the bigs are reacting inside and not creating plays.
    Wheat/"/"/"
    "An angry man catches no fish"-Zen proverb.

  19. #39
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    Feb 2007
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    NW Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtr View Post
    Tyler Thornton does more to impact the game with less impact on the scoresheet than any player I can recall. As Auerbach said about KC Jones -- he doesn't shoot that well, he isn't that fast, but when he plays, we win. Color me impressed!
    Quote Originally Posted by turnandburn55 View Post
    Dave McClure comes to mind immediately
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    More Sean Dockery than McClure - McClure guarded bigger guys (SFs mainly), not point guards.

    I don't think t&b55 was considering who they guard, only that, as mgtr noted, they both impact the game in ways that don't show in the boxscore. Sean did as well. Lance would be another. Every team needs players like that. Unheralded and invaluable at the same time.
    -BuschDevil

    "...Man, who even now finds scarce breathing room on this vast globe, cannot retire from the Old World to some yet undiscovered continent, and wait for the slow action of such causes to replace, by a new creation, the Eden he has wasted".
    -George Perkins Marsh (1864)

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    My all-time favorite comment on this board comes early in that season, when Duke lost at, I believe, Wisconsin. Wheat claimed that the UNC second string was as good or better than the Duke starting five. That's an NIT bench being better than the national champion starters. I've never seen any analysis been that wrong, in any sport, ever.
    I don't know....i recall Mr. Gottlieb's analysis early in that year being alarmingly un-accurate
    9f

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