MBB: Duke vs Michigan Pre-Game & In-Game Thread

[Bob Green]

Next up is Michigan and their 1-3-1 zone defense in the Maui Invitational Semifinals. The Wolverines played us tough last year in the NCAA Tournament.

[DuKe4LiFe#30]

Should be a good low scoring game they have some solid bigs some good 3 point shooters and a game changer in Hardaway jr. For some reason i really dislike the kid Smotrycz and i hope we stick it to him tomarow. Wish mitch would of waited on his decesion maybe this would of factored into it.

Duke 66
Michigan 60

[basket1544]

Any idea which time is the Duke Michigan game? I need to set my DVR tonight.

[CDu]

Any idea which time is the Duke Michigan game? I need to set my DVR tonight.

I'd assume the 9:30 game. But I'd say that with very little confidence.

[davekay1971]

This is going to be a tough game, make no mistake. That's a hard defense to crack, and Michigan can score it on the other end if you're not disciplined on defense. Our guys are going to have to come out sharp and playing with focus and intensity from the opening tip-off.

[DuKe4LiFe#30]

its at 7

[Newton_14]

This is going to be a tough game, make no mistake. That's a hard defense to crack, and Michigan can score it on the other end if you're not disciplined on defense. Our guys are going to have to come out sharp and playing with focus and intensity from the opening tip-off.

Agree. One thing the guys will have to guard against is falling in love with the 3. That zone will look so inviting, but Michigan wants you to shoot 30 three's. We have to insure we attack the zone and get points in the paint and balance it with three's at the right time. That will be key. That said, Andre could be a key guy tomorrow. If he is on his game, he could have a big night.

[1 24 90]

Any idea which time is the Duke Michigan game? I need to set my DVR tonight.

It is the 7 p.m. Eastern time game.

[Troublemaker]

This feels like the de facto Maui championship game. Michigan is probably a smidge better than us at this early point in the season (although, like many others, I subscribe to the thought that Duke will improve a great deal in-season [and I also believe Michigan's just very good]). Besides PG, the Wolverines return everyone from last year's team that gave us hell in the second round, and they seem to have found a very talented replacement at point in Trey Burke. They'll be the slightly more cohesive, better-executing team at this stage. Nothing that a hot shooting night or an advantage on the offensive boards couldn't overcome though. I also like that Coach K and staff have great familiarity with Maui and its format and how to prepare for it.

[stixof96]

If Michigan penetrates the lane like Tenn. did tonight, they will win.

[DukieTiger]

If Michigan penetrates the lane like Tenn. did tonight, they will win.

No, because it will mean that we are gameplanning to take away the three- as we should against both Tenn. and Mich- two of the better 3pt shooting teams in the country (and most reliant upon the 3.) The key will be to force them to beat us in mid-range, rather than on 3's off the drive-and-kick- because you can almost be certain that we will press up on their shooters and make them drive past us.

To me, this game is the ultimate test for this team's mindset early in the year. Will we settle for forced shots and three's that are out of the flow of the offense? Or will we methodically try to break Michigan down and continue to keep Miles and Mason involved in the low post? Will the Plums assert their dominance on the boards- especially offensively? Or will this different style of play force them out of their comfort zones? And how will we exploit our size advantage? WILL we exploit it, or will our bigs get drawn out to the perimeter and have trouble keeping up with Michigan's undersized lineup? Is this potentially a game where we might go to a lineup of 1 big + Hairston/MG/AM + 3 guards? How much time will Quinn Cook get, and how will he and Rivers do against this 1-3-1 defense. Both guys have the requisite ability to penetrate and make things happen against this zone, but will the decision making be there?

Of course, we could shoot something crazy like 15-30 from three and just blow them out of the water. Here's hoping.

[DukieTiger]

So I paid a visit to Statsheet.com tonight and hours later came out with a few observations about the team to date. Posted these on another board, figured I'd share here as well. Take these for whatever you will:


In thinking about Mason's improvement this year and his increased role on this team, I ventured over to Statsheet.com (only go there if you want to lose the next 4 hours of your life) and performed an interesting comparison- Jr year Tyler Zeller to Jr year Mase. Mason compares favorably (excepting his one achilles, that darned FT shooting- and even there, at this point he gets to the line more frequently than just about anyone. C'mon Mase, surely you can be >50% from the line!)



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...ller=2010-2011



I also decided to run Austin Rivers' current performance against freshmen Kyrie Irving, Jason Williams, Harry Barnes (just for hype's sake, not similar players,) JJ Redick and Senior Daniel Ewing (because that was the first year Dan's usage % came close to the other guys, and because he was playing the role of a natural SG handling the ball quite a bit on a team without a pure PG in the starting lineup.) I'll let you all check it out, but Austin definitely holds his own amongst that elite company and some of his numbers are eerily similar to the other guys in various categories. Bare in mind that those guys had an entire season (ok, not Kyrie... sniffle) to grow so it's understandable that their numbers are better than Austin's. Also, those are some of the best freshmen to ever play the game (and a senior Daniel Ewing isn't bad either.) Austin is definitely holding his own.



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...5=daniel-ewing



Other observations:



-Mason's fouls per game has gone down each year he has been at Duke. He's doing a great job of staying on the floor so far this year.

-Andre is playing more mpg this year, but his usage percentage and offensive efficiency is about the same (so far.) What has changed is that he is getting more time (thanks to improved defense and opportunity, I would imagine.)

-Seth is in a new role, but he is also stepping up rather significantly. Through 5 games, his usage is up 5% while all of his shooting percentages are also up, he's getting to the line more often, while also improving his #s in rebounds, assists and steals. Really, the only downside is the turnovers, but he still holds an A/TO ratio of 1.5

-Similarly, Ryan's usage is up but his efficiency is up almost across the board as well: he's shooting a better % from 2, 3 and the FT line; he's improved his rebounding efficiency (which takes PT/tempo into account.) His blocks are a little down (early) and his turnovers a little up, but overall the numbers support what I have seen with my eyes- RKelly is a player!

-Meanwhile, Miles' offensive usage is up but he has yet to match his past efficiency on the offensive end. He's getting to the line at a fantastic rate, but has regressed in his FT shooting (so has Mason.) He's getting a higher percentage of his points from the FT line, but there are more available if he can just get back to his previous career high of a 66% FT percentage (his Soph. season.) Interestingly, he is playing almost an identical MPG as he has the past 2 years. Something tells me that there is more that PlumOne has to offer, and I think he will perform better as the year goes on.



-Overall, it seems like the majority of the returning guys are ceasing the opportunity for bigger roles and putting forth better and more efficient all-around performances than they have to date in their careers. The one area where each of them has gotten worse is turnover rate, which tells me that these guys are still getting accustomed to the larger roles (read: usage %) that they are taking. I think this team will get better at valuing the ball, rebounding and applying ball pressure as the year goes on. And for the love of God, I just hope that Miles and Mason can figure out the free throw shooting thing! Otherwise, a lot of encouraging things on this team's statsheet profile to date!

[MCFinARL]

It is the 7 p.m. Eastern time game.

Hmm, my Washington Post seems to think the game is at 2 PM Eastern time. But perhaps they forgot about the time zone. (7 PM here is, in fact 2 PM in Hawaii.)

[HCheek37]

Yet another matchup between two programs that know each other quite well...after last year's tournament contest, I am looking forward to another great game today. Michigan lost some firepower in Darius Morris but has grown in other areas and John Beilein has this team headed in the right direction. One of the keys this evening is how Duke handles Trey Burke. Burke is a 6'1" freshmen guard who has started the year off well for the Wolverines. He has posted 13, 14 and 14 in their last 3 games while shooting 54% from the floor and 46% from three. He is a quick guard who Duke must contain especially since the focus will be keeping Novak, Douglass and Hardaway Jr. off the 3 point line.

I think tonight will be a statement game for the Devils but Michigan doesn't play a style that will let this game get out of control. This is a sweet 16 / elite 8 type matchup and should be a great early measuring stick for Duke.

I wonder if Mitch McGary will be watching tonight.

I say Duke 71-66.

[slower]

No, because it will mean that we are gameplanning to take away the three- as we should against both Tenn. and Mich- two of the better 3pt shooting teams in the country (and most reliant upon the 3.) The key will be to force them to beat us in mid-range, rather than on 3's off the drive-and-kick- because you can almost be certain that we will press up on their shooters and make them drive past us.

To me, this game is the ultimate test for this team's mindset early in the year. Will we settle for forced shots and three's that are out of the flow of the offense? Or will we methodically try to break Michigan down and continue to keep Miles and Mason involved in the low post? Will the Plums assert their dominance on the boards- especially offensively? Or will this different style of play force them out of their comfort zones? And how will we exploit our size advantage? WILL we exploit it, or will our bigs get drawn out to the perimeter and have trouble keeping up with Michigan's undersized lineup? Is this potentially a game where we might go to a lineup of 1 big + Hairston/MG/AM + 3 guards? How much time will Quinn Cook get, and how will he and Rivers do against this 1-3-1 defense. Both guys have the requisite ability to penetrate and make things happen against this zone, but will the decision making be there?

Of course, we could shoot something crazy like 15-30 from three and just blow them out of the water. Here's hoping.

Seems like some folks are of the opinion that we are "letting" or "forcing" teams to beat us off the dribble/drive. And that MAY be true, but sometimes it seems to me that we're just getting beat.

I'm not in the habit of predicting outcomes, because it generally makes people look foolish. I have no idea what will happen tonight, but I do expect it to be frustrating to watch at times. Michigan definitely uglies it up, so I'm expecting some, ahem, conflict out there on the floor.

And maybe I'm in the minority, but I LIKED that Andre got upset last night. I think some internal fire is always good for this team, and I think we've got a lot of it this year. To paraphrase the great Dick Vernon from "The Breakfast Club": "You mess with the bull, you get the horns."

[Saratoga2]

Michigan was able to stop the Memphis fast break for the most part and also greatly reduce their penetration and to some extent their 3 point shooting. The zone they use is sort of one quarter back so it can stop penetration and also is not too far away from the 3 point shooters. They are methotical and have composure so don't look for them to turn the ball over a lot nor jack up bad shots.

We have an advantage with size inside and our guards match up fairly well with theirs. I don't think Austin will be able to penetrate all that well but I do think having either Ryan or Mason at the top of the key might work. I prefer Ryan since he can pass or hit the jumper from their. We also have both Dre and Seth who can hit the 3 point shot if the zone pulls in to give them a step.

It should be interesting. We can keep a fresh defender on their point and slow them down from getting into their offense. Dre can handle their 6'5" guard best. We should be able to rebound with them or better and should bother any inside shooters.

Our free throw shooting from Miles and Mason is a drawback but the rest are solid.

I expect Duke to win this game, but I think it may be close and therefore we must execute during the end of game situation. Seth is coming along, Ryan does well and if Austin can contain his enthusiam he is also solid. Dre has gotten much better all around. Mason is good defensively but his free throw issue could make him a liability at the end of game. Coach K can do the offense/defense idea to avoid that.

[Kedsy]

I also decided to run Austin Rivers' current performance against freshmen Kyrie Irving, Jason Williams, Harry Barnes (just for hype's sake, not similar players,) JJ Redick and Senior Daniel Ewing (because that was the first year Dan's usage % came close to the other guys, and because he was playing the role of a natural SG handling the ball quite a bit on a team without a pure PG in the starting lineup.) I'll let you all check it out, but Austin definitely holds his own amongst that elite company and some of his numbers are eerily similar to the other guys in various categories. Bare in mind that those guys had an entire season (ok, not Kyrie... sniffle) to grow so it's understandable that their numbers are better than Austin's. Also, those are some of the best freshmen to ever play the game (and a senior Daniel Ewing isn't bad either.) Austin is definitely holding his own.

Good stuff, thanks. It reinforces my opinion that Austin is doing just fine so far.

[dukelifer]

So I paid a visit to Statsheet.com tonight and hours later came out with a few observations about the team to date. Posted these on another board, figured I'd share here as well. Take these for whatever you will:


In thinking about Mason's improvement this year and his increased role on this team, I ventured over to Statsheet.com (only go there if you want to lose the next 4 hours of your life) and performed an interesting comparison- Jr year Tyler Zeller to Jr year Mase. Mason compares favorably (excepting his one achilles, that darned FT shooting- and even there, at this point he gets to the line more frequently than just about anyone. C'mon Mase, surely you can be >50% from the line!)

Free throw shooting is such a problem for the two Plumlees- particularly Mason. This is something that you have to practice over and over again. Mason has decent form but it is not a very reliable shot. He has not figured it out. Ryan is money from the line- Mason is not. Very frustrating because this is something that can be fixed with lots of hours. That said, he has worked on his hook and footwork. Overall, Mason has shown improvement and is becoming a rebounding machine.

[Kedsy]

Free throw shooting is such a problem for the two Plumlees- particularly Mason. This is something that you have to practice over and over again. Mason has decent form but it is not a very reliable shot. He has not figured it out. Ryan is money from the line- Mason is not. Very frustrating because this is something that can be fixed with lots of hours. That said, he has worked on his hook and footwork. Overall, Mason has shown improvement and is becoming a rebounding machine.

I've heard he practices free throw shooting a lot. I think it's at least as much in his head as in his form or lack of practice.

[COYS]

So I paid a visit to Statsheet.com tonight and hours later came out with a few observations about the team to date. Posted these on another board, figured I'd share here as well. Take these for whatever you will:


In thinking about Mason's improvement this year and his increased role on this team, I ventured over to Statsheet.com (only go there if you want to lose the next 4 hours of your life) and performed an interesting comparison- Jr year Tyler Zeller to Jr year Mase. Mason compares favorably (excepting his one achilles, that darned FT shooting- and even there, at this point he gets to the line more frequently than just about anyone. C'mon Mase, surely you can be >50% from the line!)



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...ller=2010-2011



I also decided to run Austin Rivers' current performance against freshmen Kyrie Irving, Jason Williams, Harry Barnes (just for hype's sake, not similar players,) JJ Redick and Senior Daniel Ewing (because that was the first year Dan's usage % came close to the other guys, and because he was playing the role of a natural SG handling the ball quite a bit on a team without a pure PG in the starting lineup.) I'll let you all check it out, but Austin definitely holds his own amongst that elite company and some of his numbers are eerily similar to the other guys in various categories. Bare in mind that those guys had an entire season (ok, not Kyrie... sniffle) to grow so it's understandable that their numbers are better than Austin's. Also, those are some of the best freshmen to ever play the game (and a senior Daniel Ewing isn't bad either.) Austin is definitely holding his own.



http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/com...5=daniel-ewing



Other observations:



-Mason's fouls per game has gone down each year he has been at Duke. He's doing a great job of staying on the floor so far this year.

-Andre is playing more mpg this year, but his usage percentage and offensive efficiency is about the same (so far.) What has changed is that he is getting more time (thanks to improved defense and opportunity, I would imagine.)

-Seth is in a new role, but he is also stepping up rather significantly. Through 5 games, his usage is up 5% while all of his shooting percentages are also up, he's getting to the line more often, while also improving his #s in rebounds, assists and steals. Really, the only downside is the turnovers, but he still holds an A/TO ratio of 1.5

-Similarly, Ryan's usage is up but his efficiency is up almost across the board as well: he's shooting a better % from 2, 3 and the FT line; he's improved his rebounding efficiency (which takes PT/tempo into account.) His blocks are a little down (early) and his turnovers a little up, but overall the numbers support what I have seen with my eyes- RKelly is a player!

-Meanwhile, Miles' offensive usage is up but he has yet to match his past efficiency on the offensive end. He's getting to the line at a fantastic rate, but has regressed in his FT shooting (so has Mason.) He's getting a higher percentage of his points from the FT line, but there are more available if he can just get back to his previous career high of a 66% FT percentage (his Soph. season.) Interestingly, he is playing almost an identical MPG as he has the past 2 years. Something tells me that there is more that PlumOne has to offer, and I think he will perform better as the year goes on.



-Overall, it seems like the majority of the returning guys are ceasing the opportunity for bigger roles and putting forth better and more efficient all-around performances than they have to date in their careers. The one area where each of them has gotten worse is turnover rate, which tells me that these guys are still getting accustomed to the larger roles (read: usage %) that they are taking. I think this team will get better at valuing the ball, rebounding and applying ball pressure as the year goes on. And for the love of God, I just hope that Miles and Mason can figure out the free throw shooting thing! Otherwise, a lot of encouraging things on this team's statsheet profile to date!

These are interesting stats. Thanks for sharing. I take a slightly different look at the Mason to Zeller comparison, though. The FT% is HUGE. The fact that Mason isn't making above 50% of his free throws means he can't even touch Zeller's offensive rating of 120 from last season. he has improved in every way and bests Zeller in rebounding percentage by a wide margin (Mason might be one of the top two or three rebounders this season. He's right there with Henson, which is impressive). Mason also has a better assist rate, which helps his O-rating. But until more of his possessions end with points at the line, his O-rating won't reach the level of Zellers.

Speaking of O-rating, Curry's is off the charts good, so far. He's had some conspicuous turnovers (although, I think we might be overlooking how well he managed the game at the end last night because of that one silly backcourt violation down the stretch), but otherwise he's giving us 127+ points per 100 possessions so far. That's pretty incredible, frankly, and is at Scheyer-like levels (and Kyrie, too, although Kyrie only played 11 games). You could argue that it's a fluke for the five games, but he had an O-rating of 123 last year, which was pretty awesome. (To put this into perspective, UNC's heralded Marshall has an O-rating of just 96.4 or less than a point per possession so far, this season). That he's improved his efficiency while simultaneously increasing his usage is a great sign in the early season. Much like Scheyer, a lot of what he gives to the team isn't flashy, but we do well when he's got the ball in his hands. He'll be in for a big test tonight against Michigan's zone. If he can manage the offense well, it will be an even better sign that Curry is a solid point guard.

Kelly, on the other hand, has an absolutely insane rating of 135. I doubt he stays this high all year, but our eyes are not lying to us. Kelly looks like he's been the best player on offense, and in fact, he has been. He can score in a variety of ways. I'd like to see us use Kelly's talents to help get inside the zone for easy mid range jumpers, tonight. Between our three point shooters and Kelly's outside-in ability, we have a lot of creative ways to beat the zone as long as we keep the ball moving and aren't afraid to get inside the zone.