This Week in the ACC 11/21-11/27

[Duvall]

Wake last year is the standard -- by every measure, they were the worst ACC team since RPIs were calculated -- by almost 100 places. They were the first ACC team to lose 15 games. Their 24 overall losses were the most overall in ACC history. They weren't losing close games to nothing teams -- they lost (at home) by 10 to Stetson. By 9 at home to Elon. By 12 to UNC Wilmington. ... okay, by two at home to Presbyterian. Only one of their 15 ACC losses was by less than double figures.

In only four games, this BC team already has a 22-point loss to Holy Cross as well as the 36-point loss to UMASS. For them, a 12-point loss is a good day.

[Olympic Fan]

In only four games, this BC team already has a 22-point loss to Holy Cross as well as the 36-point loss to UMASS. For them, a 12-point loss is a good day.

Don't disagree ... I was only making the point that the standard that we will judge them by will be the 2010-11 Deacs. Right now, they are on a pace to be worse.

But don't jump the gun. Wake started last season poorly (losing the opener to Stetson at home), but they were still 6-4 after 10 games. Then the proceeded to get worse -- 2-21 the rest of the way (with only few close games in that mix). There were a lot of reasons for the collapse -- tougher competition, some injuries, but also dissention on the team (Bzdelik admits it -- that's why they were talking about addition by subtraction with the offseason loss of guys like Terrell and Stewart). And while I don't entirely blame Bzdelik for the collapse, he did little to prevent it.

In my opinion, this year's Boston College has less talent and less experience than the 10-11 Deacons (even after the Wake injuries). But I think Donohue is a better coach. I haven't heard any hints of dissessnion yet. He's got a couple of decent prospects. Dennis Clifford is going to be a good ACC big man. Patrick Heckmann is gioing to be a decent wing. I will be interested to see if he can make these guys better over the course of the season. They looked better against St. Louis than they did against Holy Cross or UMass. Real progress or a bad game by the Bllikens?

On paper, they should end up worse than last year's Deacs, but I have a sneaking suspicion that they will end up as a better team ... still a bottom of the barrel ACC team, but maybe not the worst ACC team in at least a quarter century (as Wake Forest was).

Great lineup today -- I'm especially pumped to watch the FSU-Harvard game at 4:30 (I think it's on Versus). It will be one of the rare times I pull against an ACC team (although I like FSU and think they are the ACC's third-best team -- by far) But Virginia Tech-Oklahoma State at 2:30 is pretty big. Not sure I agree with the front page assessment that Va Tech showed a lot in their loss to Syracuse earlier tin the week. They better bring it against an Okie team that just got hammered by Johnny D's Stanford team. Then I want to see how Dawkins and the Cardinals do against Syracuse in the title game.

Wake-Arizona State is another big one for the bottom of the league. The Deacs did look competitive against Dayton. Can they sustain that against a B-A-A-A-D-D-D-D Arizona State team (BTW: Are the people who rip State for not loving Herb Sendek paying attention to the horse-bleep job he's doing at ASU?).

Also checking in on Maryland-Florida Gulf Coast. Not that the game is interesting, but the Terps appear to be going the way of the 10-11 Deacons -- torn by injuries and dissention. Terrell Stoglin seems to have morphed into JT Terrell (0-for-9 one night, 32 points the next, 2-for-12 the next). It's not too late for Turgeon to pull them out of it... he gts a big boost when the 7-footer Len becomes eligible in seven more games and Howard should be back from his broken foot in a month. But these guys may already be in the dumper by then if things don't change quickly.

Finally, I'm going to be paying attention to the four games against BCS opponents. I've got the ACC ar 43-13 against outside competition so far, but more importantly, 8-4 against BCS opponents. Of course, 4-0 of that is Duke's four BCS wins (Mich State, Tennessee, Michigan, Kansas). It would help it we could sweep VPI-OSO; Miami-Oke Miss; Wake-ASU; UNC-South Carolina (yeah, I even pull for the Tar Heels ouside the ACC).

[Jderf]

(yeah, I even pull for the Tar Heels ouside the ACC).

I think a lot of us do. At least, more than you'd expect.

In conference, however, well... you know the drill.

[JasonEvans]

The Harvard-FSU game is a tough one for me. I won't be too upset no matter who wins. I sorta feel like the upper and middle tier ACC teams need to do better than ususal this year as the bottom of the league is incredibly sucky. This is the worst bottom of the league I can ever recall.

On the other hand, those middle-tier teams like Va Tech, Miami, NC State, and Virginia are gonna get a lot of conference wins against the sucky bottom. BC and Wake should be automatic wins, even on an off night, and I would think that Ga Tech, Clemson, and Maryland would not provide too much trouble either. There should be no excuse for not getting to .500 in the ACC and we may be able to get 7 or 8 teams to 9 wins. The ACC has had 6 teams win 9+ games in each of the past 3 years... we can best that this year by beating up a lot on the lousy bottom.

-Jason "Pomeroy still thinks Clemson and Maryland are pretty good... I'm not as convinced" Evans

[loran16]

The Harvard-FSU game is a tough one for me. I won't be too upset no matter who wins. I sorta feel like the upper and middle tier ACC teams need to do better than ususal this year as the bottom of the league is incredibly sucky. This is the worst bottom of the league I can ever recall.

On the other hand, those middle-tier teams like Va Tech, Miami, NC State, and Virginia are gonna get a lot of conference wins against the sucky bottom. BC and Wake should be automatic wins, even on an off night, and I would think that Ga Tech, Clemson, and Maryland would not provide too much trouble either. There should be no excuse for not getting to .500 in the ACC and we may be able to get 7 or 8 teams to 9 wins. The ACC has had 6 teams win 9+ games in each of the past 3 years... we can best that this year by beating up a lot on the lousy bottom.

-Jason "Pomeroy still thinks Clemson and Maryland are pretty good... I'm not as convinced" Evans

It's an odd game - a win by EITHER team is a good quality win (and not a bad loss if they lose). FSU's 3 point defense has been insane (I think I read opponents have been 2-26 from 3 in their last 2 games) so I expect them to win, but the real benefit of winning this game is a crack at UConn on a neutral floor - Harvard actually plays UConn @UConn later in the year, but this would be a much easier chance for the upset.

[pfrduke]

Wake last year is the standard -- by every measure, they were the worst ACC team since RPIs were calculated -- by almost 100 places. They were the first ACC team to lose 15 games. Their 24 overall losses were the most overall in ACC history. They weren't losing close games to nothing teams -- they lost (at home) by 10 to Stetson. By 9 at home to Elon. By 12 to UNC Wilmington. ... okay, by two at home to Presbyterian. Only one of their 15 ACC losses was by less than double figures.

That's said, I suspect this Boston College team is worse. I was able to watch BC lose to St. Louis a couple of hours before watching Wake lose a heatbreaker to Dayton. There's no doubt in my mind that Wake is 10-15 points better than the Eagles at the moment. They have at last a couple of decent ACC players in Harris and McKie. Their point guard/center (Chennalt/Derosiers) are not that much better than the BC equivilent (Clifford/Daniels) -- but they are a year older and that makes a huge difference.

BC may at least have competition for the worst BCS team this year. The newly-minted Pac-12 version of the Utah Utes are awful. On the season, they have a single win (by 2 points against non-DI San Diego Christian), a loss to Montana State, and blowout losses to Boise State (21) and Harvard (28). Interestingly enough, they play tonight the UMASS team that housed BC. Pomeroy has Utah ahead of BC for now, but it's easy to see the Utes ending up worse by the end of the season.

[devildeac]

Deacs losing big and U-G-L-Y tonight to Arizona State, 52-28 with under 14 to play.

[devildeac]

BC may at least have competition for the worst BCS team this year. The newly-minted Pac-12 version of the Utah Utes are awful. On the season, they have a single win (by 2 points against non-DI San Diego Christian), a loss to Montana State, and blowout losses to Boise State (21) and Harvard (28). Interestingly enough, they play tonight the UMASS team that housed BC. Pomeroy has Utah ahead of BC for now, but it's easy to see the Utes ending up worse by the end of the season.

BC with the W tonight, 66-62 over UC-Riverside in OT.

[JasonEvans]

BC with the W tonight, 66-62 over UC-Riverside in OT.

US-Riverside has not beaten a single division I team thus far this year. And yet they had a solid lead over BC before BC came back and eventually won in OT.

KenPom currently predicts that BC will go 7-22 in the regular season this year. Last year's woeful Wake club won only 8 game, the first ACC team not to get to double-digit wins since Carolina gloriously went 8-20 in 2002. Not ACC team has won less than 8 games in a season since Ga Tech joined the league in 1981 and went 4-23.

BC's awfulness is almost impossible to fathom. They are a serious threat to only win 5 or 6 games despite playing a laughably bad schedule. Aside from Harvard and St Louis, they don't have a single non-conference opponent ranked in Pomeroy's top 100. Wow... just sad.

-Jason "pathetic" Evans

[davekay1971]

Well, we've always wondered what it was like for schools like UConn and Syracuse to have schools like Rutgers to beat up on, giving them nice cushy automatic wins in the conference schedule. With Wake and BC this year, we get to find out.

Blech...I'd rather have back the ACC where your away game at the last place team was still going to be a tough night.

[Olympic Fan]

Enjoy beating up on the Eagles while we can. I'm becoming more and more convinced that Donohue will turn it around there -- with this group of kids.

Watched almost the whole BC-Riverside game Friday and I came away surprisingly impressed with the progress the Eagles have made in such a short time. I know Riverside is not very good, but neither was Holy Cross and they blew BC out a little over a week ago.

I was p%^$d to hear the TV commentators talking about what a big win it was going to be for Riverside -- picked 4th in the Big West -- to knock off an ACC team -- when it looked like Riverside was going to win. But BC surged late and took the lead. They seemed to have the game won, up six with less than a minute to go. But the kids choked and let Riverside in to tie it. Instead of folding after that collapse, Donohue's kids seized control of the OT and won fairly comfortably.

It was interesting, during pregame warmups, Donohue was out on the floor teaching -- they weren't just warming up. They were practicing. Late in the game, one of his kids fouled out and Donohue used the entire 90 seconds, not to ice the shooter or to decide on a replacement, but teach the kid coming out what he did wrong. He's got some nice kids -- Heckmann (32 points against Riverside) is farther along than I thought. Clifford is going to be decent inside and along with Caudil, he gives them some size.

Now, understand what I'm saying. BC is still going to finish 11th or 12th in the ACC this year. If Duke loses either game to them, it would be an unmitigated disaster. But the more I see of Donohue and these kids, the more I think they will not be as bad this season as Wake was last year. In fact, after watching Wake bite the big one against a weak Arizona State team last night, I'm no longer as certain as I was that BC will finish last in the ACC this year. They're going to get better and better and by February, they're going to be better than the Deacs.

[Duvall]

Two more losses for the ACC to schools from non-BCS conferences. Going to be a long year for the league.