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  1. #1

    Great Statistical and Scouting Analysis of Austin Rivers

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-austin-rivers

    It's by Sebastian Pruitti of Basketball Prospectus fame, so it's really good stuff.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    Lewisville, NC
    Thanks, but 4 games into a freshman season is way too early for an overall analysis, IMO, especially on a statistical basis.

    I'd call them preliminary observations.

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-tr...-austin-rivers

    It's by Sebastian Pruitti of Basketball Prospectus fame, so it's really good stuff.
    Yeah, pretty good stuff, although my guess is Grantland only posted it because it suggests Austin's not as good as the hype. All the problems seem fixable, however. I'm not worried about Austin at all. If anybody can help him with his decision making, it's Coach K.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    The last paragraph sums it up:

    If Rivers starts to make the correct passes and starts using his pull-up jumper, he will live up to all the hype. His turnover rate will drop. Defenses will be forced into more decisions, which will open up the floor to hesitation dribbles, crossovers and drives to the basket. All the tools are there for Rivers, he just needs to figure out how to make the decisions that maximize his considerable talents.
    Rivers has shown a very mature ability to beat his man off the dribble. He hasn't yet shown the ability to consistently make the best decision when the help defense arrives. I'm guessing that's largely due to (a) not being used to such organized help defense at the college level and (b) not yet being used to having such good teammates.

    He seems to be great at taking step one in the attack (beat man), but iffy at making step two (read/react to help defense or lack thereof). When/if he figures out what's available after his initial move, he'll be devastating. As is, he's already very good.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Thanks, but 4 games into a freshman season is way too early for an overall analysis, IMO, especially on a statistical basis.

    I'd call them preliminary observations.
    Well, I don't think that these are any observations that many of us haven't already made. But I think Austin will be fine. Much better than fine, actually.

    And, as with anything you read in Grantland concerning Duke, just remember that Grantland is Simmons' baby. Simmons will take any and every shot at Duke that he can. And even stuff written by Shane Ryan, their in-house "Duke guy", will always tend to have negative things in it. That's just the way it is over there. And, of course, anything written by UNC homers like Jay Kang will take as many shots at Duke as possible.
    Last edited by slower; 11-21-2011 at 01:10 PM.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Thanks, but 4 games into a freshman season is way too early for an overall analysis, IMO, especially on a statistical basis.

    I'd call them preliminary observations.
    It's still an analysis. It's just not a final analysis. And it doesn't proclaim to be a final analysis. It's just an analysis of what he has been at the moment and what he needs to improve to be truly dominant. And I think it's a pretty fair assessment of what he has done so far.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    Thanks, but 4 games into a freshman season is way too early for an overall analysis, IMO, especially on a statistical basis.

    I'd call them preliminary observations.
    I love how you basically ignored the article in this comment. It's more like you just read the title and felt necessary to attack it without reading it. Bad form really. The article doesn't make any overall assessment of Rivers as a failure (or success) you know.

    @Kedsy, while I dislike some of the CBB stuff at Grantland, they've shown a record in other sports (Baseball, Football) of getting statistical-analysis guys to write pieces. I suspect this wouldn't have been written if the NBA was still going on (this writer is normally on the NBA side of Prospectus), but I don't think the piece was published simply because it was about a Duke player underperforming thus far.
    <devildeac> anyone playing drinking games by now?
    7:49:36<Wander> drink every qb run?
    7:49:38<loran16> umm, drink every time asack rushes?
    7:49:38<wolfybeard> @devildeac: drink when Asack runs a keeper
    7:49:39 PM<CB&B> any time zack runs, drink

    Carolina Delenda Est

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Halifax, Nova Scotia
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The last paragraph sums it up:



    Rivers has shown a very mature ability to beat his man off the dribble. He hasn't yet shown the ability to consistently make the best decision when the help defense arrives. I'm guessing that's largely due to (a) not being used to such organized help defense at the college level and (b) not yet being used to having such good teammates.

    He seems to be great at taking step one in the attack (beat man), but iffy at making step two (read/react to help defense or lack thereof). When/if he figures out what's available after his initial move, he'll be devastating. As is, he's already very good.
    I thought it was an interesting article, though I agree with roywhite that it is early to be making judgements statistically.

    I also found the clips used as examples were not fantastic as the first clip showing that Austin forced a shot, but in reality he got to the middle of the lane and the help side defender was not a factor, but the defensive player made a nice play to strip Austin. I wouldn't have called that a mental mistake at all, just getting stripped by the defensive player.

    In the next clip, the author notes poor decision-making as Austin gets to a great spot on the floor for a short lay-up, but just misses avoiding the defensive player and gets called for a charge. I find it tough to be too critical of him on this play, though I agree with the call.

    I agree with the basic statements the author makes, as there has been a trend of Austin not always making the best decisions when driving, but these clips don't necessarily highlight this that well, IMO. I have to commend the author for using clips though as I do better enjoy analysis that includes pictures and videos to show what he is trying to say.

    Thanks for sharing this loran16 and I agree with CDu that Austin is having some challenges adjusting to what he can and cannot do vs. the second defender at the college level, but he is already doing well and I expect will get better as he gains more experience.

  9. #9

    Austin Rivers

    Are you serious? What does the young man have to do to impress this guy? I think Austin is doing a very good job so far. Yes there is plenty of room for improvement, but he doesn't have to be the alpha and omega for this team. Fortunately for Austin he is surrounded by a cast that includes veteran and young talented players as well. I think you also have to consider the immense pressure placed on him as the number one overall recruit and going to Duke. A gaurd which means he has a long line of some of the greatest college players ever at the position to follow. I have seen a confident, self assured, cocky if you like, with that great Duke swagger. He knows how good he is. He doesn't need, or have to prove to anyone that he is the real deal. He can get to the rim at will. If he doesn't get a basket, he gets fouled, or both. We will see more of the latter in time as he gets stronger to finish around the rim. I leave you with this. UNC fans and people of their ilk like to ask the question "who is going to gaurd Harrison Barnes?". I am asking those people who is going to check Austin Barnes? GO DUKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    San Francisco
    This is a great, detailed article that demonstrates with stats and examples what many on the board have also noticed. Rivers needs to learn when to take the ball all the way to the rim and when to kick it out or pull up for a jump shot rather than a leaning, spinning layup through traffic. Rivers has not been a ball hog as many have feared. He's a willing passer. He's just not a willing passer on his drives, which is the biggest reason he hasn't been an efficient passer. I would also add to the article that his three point shooting has yet to get going, either. Making a whole bunch of three pointers is THE quickest cure to offensive inefficiency. Since he's streaky from three, I'd imagine that his three point percentage will never be particularly awe-inspiring, but hitting anywhere from 35-37% will help open up the floor for him.

    Anyway, I know I'll be watching to see if/how much Austin's decision-making on drives improves. If he starts producing more positive plays than negative ones (assist, free throw attempt, or made pull up jumper) when he can't get all the way to the rim for a score, it will DRAMATICALLY improve the teams overall offensive efficiency, which is already solid (8th in the country according to KenPom, even though this season's stats are not yet completely isolated to the current season yet).

  11. #11
    I am not worried about Rivers at all at this point. He has a lot to learn about the college game and how best he can best use his talent, but there has already been a lot of progress from China. There is no reason to think he won't continue to develop and mature. Good thing he picked such a great teacher.

  12. #12
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Solid piece. Glad to see Grantland get some CBB writing from an actual adult, even if they had to turn to an NBA writer to do it.

  13. #13
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    Feb 2008
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    Lewisville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by loran16 View Post
    I love how you basically ignored the article in this comment. It's more like you just read the title and felt necessary to attack it without reading it. Bad form really. The article doesn't make any overall assessment of Rivers as a failure (or success) you know.

    @Kedsy, while I dislike some of the CBB stuff at Grantland, they've shown a record in other sports (Baseball, Football) of getting statistical-analysis guys to write pieces. I suspect this wouldn't have been written if the NBA was still going on (this writer is normally on the NBA side of Prospectus), but I don't think the piece was published simply because it was about a Duke player underperforming thus far.
    I read the analysis and made my comment.
    Your response seems hostile.

  14. #14
    So, to summarize: Rivers has no difficulty beating the first man off the dribble, but he needs to improve his decision-making when help defense comes.

    For a freshman who has played 4 games at the D-I level, this does not seem to be advanced analysis. It is certainly correct. It's just not very insightful. The efficiency stats are also to be taken with a grain of salt in such a small sample size.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Portland, OR
    Regarding the question of the analysis being silly because we're four games into the season, the author agrees:

    Quote Originally Posted by Sebastian Pruiti
    Is this to say that Rivers is a bust and a terrible player? No. To make any sweeping generalizations about a player after four games would be silly.

  16. #16
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by roywhite View Post
    I read the analysis and made my comment.
    Your response seems hostile.
    In fairness, your comment did sort of sound like you hadn't read the article. Because the author in fact uses words like "yet" and "to make any sweeping generalizations about a player after four games would be silly."

    It's an analysis of what Rivers has done so far (and I think a fairly accurate one), not a final judgment on him as a player.

  17. #17
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    Feb 2007
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by juise View Post
    Regarding the question of the analysis being silly because we're four games into the season, the author agrees:
    He does not call his analysis silly. He says making declarations about Rivers as a player would be silly. Those are very different statements. One can analyze without making sweeping declarations.

  18. #18
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    Feb 2007
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    Portland, OR
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    He does not call his analysis silly. He says making declarations about Rivers as a player would be silly. Those are very different statements. One can analyze without making sweeping declarations.
    You're right. That was poorly worded by me. I guess I was more referring more to the "final analysis" phrasing from earlier in the thread.

    Overall, I agree that (1) the sample size is too low and that (2) it doesn't take PPP stats to say demonstrate that Austin has some room for growth in decision making. (Likewise, we don't need a larger sample size to demonstrate that Mason needs work on free throw consistency.) However, I think that it is useful to take a snapshot of Austin's season at this point, noting his current PPP, and compare the number to his efficiency in February. I think the comparison will be favorable, even with increased competition.

  19. #19
    "Great Statistical and Scouting Analysis of Austin Rivers", so which one is silly at this point of the season? If an observtion is accurate you can find a statistic to support it 100% of the time, if an observation is inaccurate, it usually takes more analysis to find one. And no, I haven't read the article.

  20. #20
    Join Date
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    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by tele View Post
    "Great Statistical and Scouting Analysis of Austin Rivers", so which one is silly at this point of the season? If an observtion is accurate you can find a statistic to support it 100% of the time, if an observation is inaccurate, it usually takes more analysis to find one. And no, I haven't read the article.
    Why not just read the article before posting?

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