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  1. #1

    the point guard conundrum

    we have five guards on the team. right now we are starting 3- Curry/Rivers/Dawkins. None of them are pure point guards. As a result we bring two point guards off the bench.Wouldn't it make more sense for the rotation to be starting either Thornton or Cook? It doesn't matter which of the other three guards are coming off the bench as long as the Seth/Austin and Andre get their minutes- I subscribe to the maxim "it is not who starts the game but who finishes it". I imagine Andre would be the one off the bench IF Austin could play the three.

    I realized this last night when Tyler and Quinn came in together. That didn't make a lot of sense for them to be on the court together but it made sense in the context of the game

    To expand on the idea- you would have a pure point guard in the game most of the time. If Tyler started then Andre could be the first substitute for Austin or Seth. Quinn would replace Tyler or Seth could get minutes at the point as well

    Everything would be smoother with a pure point guard on the court

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by scheyerfan View Post
    Everything would be smoother with a pure point guard on the court
    You have to admit, there is a certain amount of irony that this thread was started by a user using the handle "scheyerfan"

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by scheyerfan View Post
    we have five guards on the team. right now we are starting 3- Curry/Rivers/Dawkins. None of them are pure point guards. As a result we bring two point guards off the bench.Wouldn't it make more sense for the rotation to be starting either Thornton or Cook? It doesn't matter which of the other three guards are coming off the bench as long as the Seth/Austin and Andre get their minutes- I subscribe to the maxim "it is not who starts the game but who finishes it". I imagine Andre would be the one off the bench IF Austin could play the three.

    I realized this last night when Tyler and Quinn came in together. That didn't make a lot of sense for them to be on the court together but it made sense in the context of the game

    To expand on the idea- you would have a pure point guard in the game most of the time. If Tyler started then Andre could be the first substitute for Austin or Seth. Quinn would replace Tyler or Seth could get minutes at the point as well

    Everything would be smoother with a pure point guard on the court
    Seth Curry is our starting PG and playing at a high level. He will and should start every game as our point guard. I think we are fine at PG, with how K is managing things right now. I just do not see an issue here.

  4. #4
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    K is looking for combinations that work and rotations that work. I think for now he is starting the strongest offensive players we have, and then bringing in some defense (TT) and a distributor (Cook) to change things up. Both TT and Cook were important in the second half last night.

    I thought Austin made a very concerted effort to pass more in the second half, and I assume that was "suggested" by the coaches at half. He did well I thought.

    Bottom line is that Seth is a captain and the most experienced guard we have. The guy is a stone cold killer and I want him in the game when it is on the line. Austin has the potential to be a lottery pick after this year, and is learning to make the adjustment to this level of competition. I want him on the floor too. And as for Andre, the MSU game shows why he belongs in the line-up.

    Nice problem to have, depth that will rotate through the system over the next few years.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    K is looking for combinations that work and rotations that work.
    word.

    And he does this almost every year. And I have come to the conclusion that he knows what he is doing.
    ~rthomas

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by scheyerfan View Post
    Wouldn't it make more sense for the rotation to be starting either Thornton or Cook?

    * * *

    Everything would be smoother with a pure point guard on the court
    "Pure point guard" is only a label. To me, Tyler is really more of a defensive specialist. He hasn't shown the ability to break down opposing teams off the dribble or thread the needle for spectacular assists. Quinn is still learning the defense. So I don't think it would make sense to start one of them or to take steps to insure one of them was in the game most of the time.

    It's not like they're showing amazing PG skills when they play, either. I thought Quinn played well last night, but he didn't have any assists (in 12 minutes). Tyler had just two, in 17 minutes. For the season, Quinn and Tyler have combined for 119 minutes and have 10 assists. Seth has played 114 minutes and has 12 assists. So why do you think it's imperative that Quinn or Tyler start?

  7. #7
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    John Havlicek, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, Toni Kuoc, Jason Terry, and Manu Ginobli take umbrage with your insistence that "who starts" matters at all.

    If TT and Quin are going to play about 25 or so minutes combined in a game, what does it matter if those minutes come at the very start of the game or elsewhere?

    -Jason "K has sometimes shown an appreciation for having 2 PGs on the floor together (Duhon and JWill were lethal together), which may be why we sometimes see TT and Quin coming in the game at the same time" Evans
    Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    John Havlicek, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, Toni Kuoc, Jason Terry, and Manu Ginobli take umbrage with your insistence that "who starts" matters at all.

    If TT and Quin are going to play about 25 or so minutes combined in a game, what does it matter if those minutes come at the very start of the game or elsewhere?

    -Jason "K has sometimes shown an appreciation for having 2 PGs on the floor together (Duhon and JWill were lethal together), which may be why we sometimes see TT and Quin coming in the game at the same time" Evans
    TT and Quin grew up playing in the two most storied programs in the most storied league in these United States--they know the game the way few do, and were capable of shining, while leading excellent teams in very different ways. These guys are GREAT ballplayers, we are talking GREAT. And, don't talk to TT about point, or shooting, or 1,2.3 positions--they are meaningless nothings to that kid. We are talking Tommy Amakar with another 20 lobs. that bespeak much, much more strength. I'm betting that when a guy makes solid contact with TT, no matter who intiates, he remembers the moment none too fondly for the rest of his natural born life. Playing Quin and TT on the court at the same time is having too old school basketball minds, one with a futuristic skill set, that would be Quin, and both with an ability to make the easy penetrating pass that makes an athletic big make an athletic play that creates opportunity, creates a defeat of the defender even if the ball is quickly thrown out, which is how Duke is finally at long last playing this year.

    If, as has happened, Curry forgets that the game is about making the bigs athletic receivers with the space and potential advantage to score the ball inside, either of these two can easily take his place--you ain't seen a fraction of what cook can do for that team yet, btw. And, if Rivers doesn't learn that game, and I mean quickly, when other teams shut his paths to the basket down with serious muscle (2 guys at a minimum), he can see his minutes shrink too--you want Cook to score you the ball, all you need to do is tell him to, and, in the process, he will always feed the big dogs first.

    Yes, Curry is playing terrifically at both ends, escept (1) he sometimes forgets to empower the bigs to wear people out instead of wearing himself out by those beautiful but draining early (in the game and even sometimes the clock) attacks to the basket; and (2), especially when he has done (a), he runs out of gas and starts making awful decisions and executing them worse down the stretch. Now, he might develop the stamina to have it all ways and play well down the stretch, he didn't in 903 at the garden, not by a long stretch, but I think that that is expecting too much, that is, if you want to continue to score the ball the way he tries and often succeeds doing in the first half, 2/3 of the game. We have seen how Rivers can be taken out of his attack-the-basket, you-know-it's-coming-and-you-can't-stop-it game; what we haven't seen his deployment of an alternative approach to being valuable on the court when that happens. I should think that between he and Capel they will figure it out, but it might take time. How much? Time. In the meantime, give me those two kids from DeMatha and Gonzaga, places where the roots of the game are flourishing in this day of "prime time" play, and watch the guys they play with get better and together they hurt people in ways that are timeless.

    BTW, both Miles and Ryan (Ryan especially on three balls), need to earn how to differentiate moving their eyes from moving their heads--in other words, they need to be able to look up with their eyes with only moving their heads a fraction of what they currently do. By moving their heads and eyes as of one piece, they throw their heads back to look up, bringing their weight to their heals, which in both cases produces arm shots that have no repeatability. Learning to differentiate movement of the head and eyes is a key element, often overlooked, in athletic performance. It is not difficult to learn. Nope, that's why they pay guys with training like mine the big bucks. (Ryan learns this skill and he will kill people from the three line; as it is, he seems like standing behind him is downright dangerous when he gets to looking up at the basket--differentiating movement of the eyes and the head, baby and the dude will be nailing them the way everyone expects.)

    Well, I have to say that I like this Duke team an awful lot, really like the way the exterior guys have been learning to empower the bigs, not my fancy passes, but by getting it inside early and multiple times per possession, and taking advantage of the receiver's athleticism, which, aside from anything else, is by far the most fun and rewarding thing in all of sports--making a pass that asks of the receiver that which takes quick decision making, vision, and modes of movement that are uniquely necessary to accomplish the task at hand. That is, that brings the big and the passer, or passers (it might be gy 1 who sees the entry if guy 2 gets the ball and as the ball goes to guy 2 or before, all three are on the same page) into relationship to create a synergy that defines the best that the game has to offer. You let the Plumlees and Ryan and the other quasi big be full partners in that fashion, and their vision on defense, their positioning for rebounds, their running the floor, their getting the ball in a crowd, starts to amaze.

    Duke needs that this year. It is there for the taking, they have the kids to make it work, and it seems also the coach (again, I'm saying Capel) who understands its value.

    In sum, if you are a guard playing for Duke this season, I wouldn't forget that letting the bigs be the terrific athletics and creators they are is the number one priority;. You forget that, except in games where the defense commits overwhelming resources to shut that part of the game down, at your peril.
    There are guys who are waiting who will not forget; who were born to lead in that fashion.

    \It's me, Mr. Greybeard, just kicking it back.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by greybeard View Post
    TT and Quin grew up playing in the two most storied programs in the most storied league in these United States--they know the game the way few do, and were capable of shining, while leading excellent teams in very different ways. These guys are GREAT ballplayers, we are talking GREAT. And, don't talk to TT about point, or shooting, or 1,2.3 positions--they are meaningless nothings to that kid. We are talking Tommy Amakar with another 20 lobs. that bespeak much, much more strength. I'm betting that when a guy makes solid contact with TT, no matter who intiates, he remembers the moment none too fondly for the rest of his natural born life. Playing Quin and TT on the court at the same time is having too old school basketball minds, one with a futuristic skill set, that would be Quin, and both with an ability to make the easy penetrating pass that makes an athletic big make an athletic play that creates opportunity, creates a defeat of the defender even if the ball is quickly thrown out, which is how Duke is finally at long last playing this year.

    If, as has happened, Curry forgets that the game is about making the bigs athletic receivers with the space and potential advantage to score the ball inside, either of these two can easily take his place--you ain't seen a fraction of what cook can do for that team yet, btw. And, if Rivers doesn't learn that game, and I mean quickly, when other teams shut his paths to the basket down with serious muscle (2 guys at a minimum), he can see his minutes shrink too--you want Cook to score you the ball, all you need to do is tell him to, and, in the process, he will always feed the big dogs first.

    Yes, Curry is playing terrifically at both ends, escept (1) he sometimes forgets to empower the bigs to wear people out instead of wearing himself out by those beautiful but draining early (in the game and even sometimes the clock) attacks to the basket; and (2), especially when he has done (a), he runs out of gas and starts making awful decisions and executing them worse down the stretch. Now, he might develop the stamina to have it all ways and play well down the stretch, he didn't in 903 at the garden, not by a long stretch, but I think that that is expecting too much, that is, if you want to continue to score the ball the way he tries and often succeeds doing in the first half, 2/3 of the game. We have seen how Rivers can be taken out of his attack-the-basket, you-know-it's-coming-and-you-can't-stop-it game; what we haven't seen his deployment of an alternative approach to being valuable on the court when that happens. I should think that between he and Capel they will figure it out, but it might take time. How much? Time. In the meantime, give me those two kids from DeMatha and Gonzaga, places where the roots of the game are flourishing in this day of "prime time" play, and watch the guys they play with get better and together they hurt people in ways that are timeless.

    BTW, both Miles and Ryan (Ryan especially on three balls), need to earn how to differentiate moving their eyes from moving their heads--in other words, they need to be able to look up with their eyes with only moving their heads a fraction of what they currently do. By moving their heads and eyes as of one piece, they throw their heads back to look up, bringing their weight to their heals, which in both cases produces arm shots that have no repeatability. Learning to differentiate movement of the head and eyes is a key element, often overlooked, in athletic performance. It is not difficult to learn. Nope, that's why they pay guys with training like mine the big bucks. (Ryan learns this skill and he will kill people from the three line; as it is, he seems like standing behind him is downright dangerous when he gets to looking up at the basket--differentiating movement of the eyes and the head, baby and the dude will be nailing them the way everyone expects.)

    Well, I have to say that I like this Duke team an awful lot, really like the way the exterior guys have been learning to empower the bigs, not my fancy passes, but by getting it inside early and multiple times per possession, and taking advantage of the receiver's athleticism, which, aside from anything else, is by far the most fun and rewarding thing in all of sports--making a pass that asks of the receiver that which takes quick decision making, vision, and modes of movement that are uniquely necessary to accomplish the task at hand. That is, that brings the big and the passer, or passers (it might be gy 1 who sees the entry if guy 2 gets the ball and as the ball goes to guy 2 or before, all three are on the same page) into relationship to create a synergy that defines the best that the game has to offer. You let the Plumlees and Ryan and the other quasi big be full partners in that fashion, and their vision on defense, their positioning for rebounds, their running the floor, their getting the ball in a crowd, starts to amaze.

    Duke needs that this year. It is there for the taking, they have the kids to make it work, and it seems also the coach (again, I'm saying Capel) who understands its value.

    In sum, if you are a guard playing for Duke this season, I wouldn't forget that letting the bigs be the terrific athletics and creators they are is the number one priority;. You forget that, except in games where the defense commits overwhelming resources to shut that part of the game down, at your peril.
    There are guys who are waiting who will not forget; who were born to lead in that fashion.

    \It's me, Mr. Greybeard, just kicking it back.

    I think that about sums it up, nice to see Mr Greybeard posting again. Duke has good depth at guard this season, and for the team in general, but it is young depth. Not counting the frosh, it's a seven deep team. So, I don't think Coach K putting the ball in his most experienced ballhandlers hands should come as any surprise. And when it is crunch time in a game, that is where I'd expect to see it. Seth has done a good job distributing the ball and still getting his shots and points. How well he can continue to do that will be key for the success of this team. If one of the other guards, like austin, or tyler can contribute some assists along the way that will take some of the load off of Curry. Cook looks like he has a lot of talent, it will be fun to watch how he develops over the course of the season.

    Also nice to see improvements in Masons game, he seems to be playing more continuously offense to defense and enjoying the game more. Not to mention his footwork, nice reverse pivots and pivots into his hook shots. I've only seen one of the turnaround jumphook shots, don't miss see the ball spinning off the rim from those.

    Competition in Maui will step up so some of the points about roles and minutes will get sorted by game pressure.
    For that, the MSU game should be a better indicator than the Davidson game. Should be fun. May turn out Duke guards are more like shades of corundum than conundrum.
    Last edited by tele; 11-20-2011 at 02:40 AM. Reason: atttempted clarity

  10. #10
    Quinn Cook has impressed me so far. If he demonstrates an ability to play defense consistently, I can see him being a part of our core rotation come March. And I think he will become a fan favorite with his play and positive attitude.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    John Havlicek, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, Toni Kuoc, Jason Terry, and Manu Ginobli take umbrage with your insistence that "who starts" matters at all.

    If TT and Quin are going to play about 25 or so minutes combined in a game, what does it matter if those minutes come at the very start of the game or elsewhere?

    -Jason "K has sometimes shown an appreciation for having 2 PGs on the floor together (Duhon and JWill were lethal together), which may be why we sometimes see TT and Quin coming in the game at the same time" Evans
    Vinny Johnson? I love that you just went "Microwave" on us.

  12. #12

    the point guard conundrum

    I started this thread so let me be clear if I wasn't clear before- I was not suggesting that Austin or Seth's minutes should be cut. I was only suggesting the possibility that the point guard rotation MIGHT be changed to allow Seth to play some at the point and sometimes at shooting guard. The combinations of Tyler and Austin and/or Seth and Quinn (or some combination thereof) might be more effective than Seth/Austin and Tyler/Quinn.

    As Jason correctly pointed out- it is not who starts the game but who finishes it.

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by scheyerfan View Post
    The combinations of Tyler and Austin and/or Seth and Quinn (or some combination thereof) might be more effective than Seth/Austin and Tyler/Quinn.
    Why do you think that the only options are (a) Tyler playing only with Quinn; and (b) one of Tyler or Quinn starting? So far this season, Tyler and Quinn have played very few minutes together and neither of them has started, yet between them they've averaged almost 30 minutes a game. Personally, I think it would be most effective if things continued more or less the way they've gone so far: Seth/Austin/Andre starting at the perimeter positions and playing most of the perimeter minutes. Tyler and Quinn subbing in and combining for 20 to 30 minutes.

    It's worked so far without Tyler or Quinn starting (or finishing, for the most part). And the only way Quinn's and/or Tyler's role can increase is if somebody's minutes are cut. It might happen, or it might not, but I assume that if it does happen, it won't be because Quinn and/or Tyler are "pure points."

  14. #14
    With respect, PG is not just a label. Great PGs see the whole floor quickly, intuitively, and they have an uncanny ability to make the right decision, the way KI did [and every other great PG we have seen over the years -- think Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, etc, etc. -- it's a special art and a joy to watch.] Yes, our current lineup has "worked so far" but our sample size is very small and some of us [me, of course, and others] see the signs of an offense that "works" but doesn't work at the level it could be. Sometimes it's passes that aren't made, brief hesitations, passes to receivers under pressure and at inopportune spots.

    I watched KI come down the floor -- he looked at the entire court, scanning for something I know that I cannot understand, but resulting in the ball in the hands of the right person at the right moment and place. I have watched Seth coming down the floor, looking at one teammate, and then, maybe, another, but not at the whole court. I know that Coach K has our current guards passing to the wings. This is a sensible offensive strategy given the guards we now have. But it's not the formula when one has a true, great PG.

    Certainly some minutes of other proficient players [guards] would have to be cut. Andre's minutes are the most likely expendable. This is not a zero-sum situation -- this is about the catalytic value that a true PG brings. I am well aware that Quinn is not there yet. My belief is that he is our best investment for a winning team come March and April.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Why do you think that the only options are (a) Tyler playing only with Quinn; and (b) one of Tyler or Quinn starting? So far this season, Tyler and Quinn have played very few minutes together and neither of them has started, yet between them they've averaged almost 30 minutes a game. Personally, I think it would be most effective if things continued more or less the way they've gone so far: Seth/Austin/Andre starting at the perimeter positions and playing most of the perimeter minutes. Tyler and Quinn subbing in and combining for 20 to 30 minutes.

    It's worked so far without Tyler or Quinn starting (or finishing, for the most part). And the only way Quinn's and/or Tyler's role can increase is if somebody's minutes are cut. It might happen, or it might not, but I assume that if it does happen, it won't be because Quinn and/or Tyler are "pure points."

  15. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by tryan44 View Post
    With respect, PG is not just a label. Great PGs see the whole floor quickly, intuitively, and they have an uncanny ability to make the right decision, the way KI did [and every other great PG we have seen over the years -- think Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, etc, etc. -- it's a special art and a joy to watch.] Yes, our current lineup has "worked so far" but our sample size is very small and some of us [me, of course, and others] see the signs of an offense that "works" but doesn't work at the level it could be. Sometimes it's passes that aren't made, brief hesitations, passes to receivers under pressure and at inopportune spots.

    I watched KI come down the floor -- he looked at the entire court, scanning for something I know that I cannot understand, but resulting in the ball in the hands of the right person at the right moment and place. I have watched Seth coming down the floor, looking at one teammate, and then, maybe, another, but not at the whole court. I know that Coach K has our current guards passing to the wings. This is a sensible offensive strategy given the guards we now have. But it's not the formula when one has a true, great PG.

    Certainly some minutes of other proficient players [guards] would have to be cut. Andre's minutes are the most likely expendable. This is not a zero-sum situation -- this is about the catalytic value that a true PG brings. I am well aware that Quinn is not there yet. My belief is that he is our best investment for a winning team come March and April.
    If Quinn Cook were Kyrie Irving then I'd agree with you. He's not. Frankly, I doubt he'll ever get to that level, although I do expect him to shine over the course of his Duke career.

    Right now, today, I disagree with you. I'd rather have Andre out there with Seth and Austin than Quinn with Seth and Austin. I expect that come March 2012 I'll still rather have Andre in there than Quinn (don't have a clear vision as to whether, come March, I'll rather see Quinn than Tyler, though). At the present time, I think Quinn's best role is as a backup, learning how to play at this level, especially defense. No need to rush it.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by tryan44 View Post
    Great PGs see the whole floor quickly, intuitively, and they have an uncanny ability to make the right decision...
    One last reason why I don't think Quinn is anywhere close to this yet -- he only has two assists (in four games/40 total minutes). I realize assists are somewhat of a flawed statistic and don't tell the whole story, but if he was seeing the floor the way you've described, he'd have more than 0.5 assists per game, even if he were primarily playing off the ball (in contrast, as I pointed out earlier, Kendall Marshall had 16 assists in his first 44 minutes (3 games) last season).

    And if Quinn's that far away at this point, I can't see why we should disrupt Seth and Andre to forcefeed Quinn. Despite your belief, there's insufficient evidence "that he is our best investment for a winning team come March and April."

    Hopefully if we revisit this question in a few months, Quinn will be further along.

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    One last reason why I don't think Quinn is anywhere close to this yet -- he only has two assists (in four games/40 total minutes). I realize assists are somewhat of a flawed statistic and don't tell the whole story, but if he was seeing the floor the way you've described, he'd have more than 0.5 assists per game, even if he were primarily playing off the ball (in contrast, as I pointed out earlier, Kendall Marshall had 16 assists in his first 44 minutes (3 games) last season).

    And if Quinn's that far away at this point, I can't see why we should disrupt Seth and Andre to forcefeed Quinn. Despite your belief, there's insufficient evidence "that he is our best investment for a winning team come March and April."

    Hopefully if we revisit this question in a few months, Quinn will be further along.
    When you play through the pivot, then assists in the half court game come mostly when you go away from your intention--that is, you play off dribble penetration. Now I get that that is Rivers' game, that is essential to all else he does, which is finish whenever he gets inside the defense, shoots when the defender backs away. To a lesser extent, Curry goes to that game more than I think is good for Duke. When he does that, the offensive paradigm that most label as "man, do you see how much progress Mason and also Mills have made this off season, how much more aggressive and confident they have become." I see it differently, that Duke with Capel's help has fashioned an offense that plays through them when the offense is functioning at its best. So, if Curry penetrates as often he sometimes has, rather than generating an effective pass penetration early in the offense and have the pass out create scoring chances and a chain of passes on the outside, it stands to reason he will get assists--he is a good finisher but no where near Rivers' class. Rivers gets inside the defense, he scores the ball or gets fouled or goes down trying; Curry will kick it.

    Cook has not shown you his dribble penetration game yet, because, as a freshman getting little playing time, he sticks to the paradigm. You don't get assists giving it up easily to a teammate who has a better angle to an opening that a big can and will get to as the ball arrives, a better pass penetration possibility than Cook himself has, or Cook will see an interesting pass penetration opening and let it go himself. Much different game that produces team offense and inside dominance but much fewer assists for the point. Cook can finish as well as or better than Curry and has an in-the-lane short shot game, and an assist game, that puts your boy KI away. KI, in my opinion, made last year's team less effective, even while he put on a terrific show. The only guy in the country who could stop Nolan was not his coach, aka el Deano and Michael, but rather his running mate when KI was in the game, or am I the only one who noticed that?

    I am very impressed with Curry's game on both ends. But, please, if K gave Cook the ball and said "do your thing" and the playing time to do it, you'd see assists and scoring inside the lane that I believe would have you wondering who on Duke was actually the best at going to the basket, Cook or Rivers. By the way, if you want to wear the other team's bigs out, to deflate their spirit, to elevate the all around play of Duke's bigs, even money sys that that guy would be Cook. But I don't think that we'll see that game from Cook this season, unless something happens to Curry, and maybe not even then--Thorton is playing spectacularly, imo, and some of Duke's very best play happens when he is on the floor. If you see Cook with the same green light that Curry has and the time to get a feel for the game to really be effective, well, I'm thinking that we'd all enjoy it very, very much, and you'd see more assists from the kid than you've seen in Cameron in years.
    Last edited by greybeard; 11-21-2011 at 01:40 AM.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    John Havlicek, Vinnie Johnson, Kevin McHale, Toni Kuoc, Jason Terry, and Manu Ginobli take umbrage with your insistence that "who starts" matters at all.

    If TT and Quin are going to play about 25 or so minutes combined in a game, what does it matter if those minutes come at the very start of the game or elsewhere?

    -Jason "K has sometimes shown an appreciation for having 2 PGs on the floor together (Duhon and JWill were lethal together), which may be why we sometimes see TT and Quin coming in the game at the same time" Evans
    It's funny that you mention Jason Terry, because I really believe that Terry is the best NBA comp for Seth Curry. I watch hundreds of hours of NBA ball every year, and the similarities between Terry and Curry are very strong. Terry is quicker than Curry, and a better passer, but their skill sets are strikingly similar.

    I think Curry could possibly be best-suited towards coming off the bench for this team, similarly to Terry. Aside from him not turning the ball over very much, I have been underwhelmed by Curry's point guard skills. Curry's ability to run the team - at least in the mold of Jon Scheyer - is mediocre. One issue with Duke's offense is that both Rivers and Curry are combo guards. Each is capable of bringing the ball up the floor and initiating the offense, but neither excels at running the team in the Bobby Hurley/Jason Williams/Kyrie Irving mold. Furthermore, with big men like Mason and Miles, who would both benefit greatly from a breakdown point guard and facilitator, Duke's perimeter interaction with the post could stand to improve greatly. Bottom line, I think Duke should give Quinn Cook a more extensive look as a more integral part of the rotation running the team.

    If Curry were to come off the bench, I think the starting lineup should ideally be Cook/Rivers/Dawkins/Kelly/Mason. Curry should get his minutes at the expense of Dawkins.

    I think the most alarming stat for this Duke team, and a metric which I feel has been greatly overlooked by the fan base thus far, is the team's current assist to turnover ratio. 5 games is a very small sample size, but the team currently has a negative assist to turnover ratio - 70 assists to 86 turnovers. Despite the small sample size, I think that given our roster makeup and our style of play, those numbers are still a decent indicator of our team's efficiency. With Michigan, Ohio State, and potentially Kansas on the schedule in the near future, and with ACC play not too far behind, it's quite possible our assist to turnover ratio could actually worsen. I don't expect it to improve drastically.

    This Duke team, if it keeps up anywhere near it's current pace, could potentially be the first team since 2006-2007 Duke - one of the worst Coach K teams in the past 15 years - to have a negative assist to turnover ratio. Even if Duke manages a positive ratio this season, this team looks to be the worst A/T team since 2006-2007. Luckily, this team not only has much more talent and depth than the 2006-2007 edition, but it has a few quality guards who are capable of improving the current A/T ratio. Installing a pure point guard as a more integral part of the rotation will be key to improving Duke's efficiency.

    I think Greybeard is spot on in his assessment of Quinn Cook's skills, as well as how he would impact the team if he were given more playing time. I think that Cook will need some more time to establish himself, but I also think that Coach K will need to actively seek to give Cook more PT and leeway to make mistakes and learn the defensive schemes if Duke is going to take steps forward and realize its full potential. One of Coach K's signatures is having a great point guard leading his teams. Sure, the 2011 championship Duke team featured a lead guard in Jon Scheyer who was more about valuing the ball than explicitly setting up and facilitating his teammates. But I would be very surprised if K leaves his most talented PG very far down in the rotation for too long. The only other time I can recall a PG of Cook's caliber being relegated to a strict backup role was William Avery in 2007-2008. But on that team, Wojo was a senior PG who was a clear pass-first option who could effectively run an offense, and I believe that Avery's passing and team-running skills were not quite as advanced as Cook's are at the same stage.

    This Duke team does not currently have a guard who can consistently run an offense at a high level and set up his teammates - aside from, potentially, Cook. Curry is a featured guard in the Scheyer mold, but he falls well short of Scheyer in terms of running an offense, and I believe that Cook could very well be the ultimate answer at the PG position this season.

  19. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by Oriole Way View Post
    I think the most alarming stat for this Duke team, and a metric which I feel has been greatly overlooked by the fan base thus far, is the team's current assist to turnover ratio. 5 games is a very small sample size, but the team currently has a negative assist to turnover ratio - 70 assists to 86 turnovers. Despite the small sample size, I think that given our roster makeup and our style of play, those numbers are still a decent indicator of our team's efficiency. With Michigan, Ohio State, and potentially Kansas on the schedule in the near future, and with ACC play not too far behind, it's quite possible our assist to turnover ratio could actually worsen. I don't expect it to improve drastically.
    The Pomeroy definition of offensive efficiency is points scored per 100 possessions. The numbers he uses to calculate possessions are:

    FGA - off reb + turnovers + FTA*0.475

    So, the factors determining efficiency are turnovers, offensive rebounding, and shooting percentages. After five games, this year's team has a lot more turnovers than its immediate predecessors (86 in 2011-12; 68 in 2010-11; 56 in 2009-10). It also has fewer offensive rebounds (59 in 2011-12; 63 in 2010-11; 71 in 2009-10). Our free throw shooting is significantly worse (.684 in 2011-12; .736 in 2010-11; .743 in 2009-10). None of those things have anything to do with assists.

    Our three-point shooting this season (.410) is similar to 2009-10 after 5 games (.415) and worse than 2010-11 (.434). Our two-point shooting this season (.503) is much better than 2009-10 after 5 games (.478) and worse than 2010-11 (.531). One could argue that the reason we shot better last year was because of Kyrie's assists, but I'm not sure if we can show it statistically or not. It may simply be a function of the competition. Since we've shot better than in 2009-10, it would seem the better passing that season did not contribute to that team's much higher offensive efficiency (although the lack of turnovers for that team clearly did).

    We've also played a much tougher schedule this season (in my opinion), which may have led to our seemingly low raw offensive efficiency (especially our higher turnovers and possibly our lower shooting percentages). Pomeroy adjusts for schedule (and on his page we have the 7th best offensive efficiency in the nation, a bit ahead of UNC), but it's too early for his adjustments to be reliable.

    So I would argue that while we do have to cut down on our turnovers to be more efficient, our assist to turnover ratio is actually not that important to our overall offensive efficiency. If we cut down on turnovers, hit our free throws and if Austin finishes a few more of his layups, our efficiency numbers will look just fine, even if our assists don't go up (although I do recognize that if turnovers go down and our assists stay the same, our a/to ratio will improve).

    As far as whether Quinn Cook could help solve our problems, I don't know. So far Seth has a higher assist rate (4.27 per 40 vs. 2.50 per 40 for Quinn) and their turnover rates are about the same (1.45 (Seth) vs. 1.50 (Quinn)). Would that change if Quinn is given the reins? I don't think anybody could possibly know that, but last year Seth was pretty good about protecting the ball and, to me at least, it's hard to imagine having fewer turnovers with an all-freshman backcourt.
    Last edited by Kedsy; 11-22-2011 at 10:53 AM.

  20. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    As far as whether Quinn Cook could help solve our problems, I don't know. So far Seth has a higher assist rate (4.27 per 40 vs. 2.50 per 40 for Quinn) and their turnover rates are about the same (1.45 (Seth) vs. 1.50 (Quinn)). Would that change if Quinn is given the reins? I don't think anybody could possibly know that, but last year Seth was pretty good about protecting the ball and, to me at least, it's hard to imagine having fewer turnovers with an all-freshman backcourt.
    I just realized I misspoke in my previous post. Seth's turnover rate (2.93 per 40) is currently much worse than Quinn's (1.67 per 40 in a small sample). It is their assist to turnover ratio that is about the same (1.45 (Seth) vs. 1.50 (Quinn)).

    Seth's turnover rate from last year (1.51 per 40) was really good, though, so I expect him to bring his turnovers under control and probably have a better turnover rate than Quinn over the course of the year.

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