It would be highly unlikely that two preseason num 1 teams would loose their point guard in consecutive years. Interesting thing to keep an eye on though. Thanks for the clarification.
There has been some chatter over the past 24 hours about an injury to Kendall Marshall's back. A couple posts to this board had to be removed as they were clearly rumor mongering. Well, the injury has now been confirmed by the Carolina staff and it is really nothing serious.
UNC has a day off on Saturday and the word is he will be back at practice on Sunday.North Carolina point guard Kendall Marshall suffered some back spasms at the end of Thursday's practice, and was held out of today's workouts as a precautionary measure, but should be fine, a UNC spokesman said Friday afternoon.
I post all this to clear up any rumors that Marshall might miss a serious amount of time. It certainly looks like that is not the case.
-Jason
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
It would be highly unlikely that two preseason num 1 teams would loose their point guard in consecutive years. Interesting thing to keep an eye on though. Thanks for the clarification.
Injuries suck. Here's to an injury free season for all teams.
"This is the best of all possible worlds."
Dr. Pangloss - Candide
OK, I'll bite.
Someone already said it - what already happened has no bearing on the odds of an independent event occurring. A simple analogy: Suppose you've flipped 3 heads in a row using a fair coin. What are the odds you'll flip a fourth head in a row? It's still 50%. The three previous flips do not change the fact that it's still a fair coin.
It's another thing entirely to say from the start, what are the odds I will flip 4 heads in a row? THAT is when the probability is small - before anything has happened.
So your observation of the rarity of two #1 teams losing their starting PG two years in a row being "much lower than just happening one year" - it is low, if nothing has yet happened. If it's already happened for the first year, then you've already completed half of the rare event ... the odds are now just those for "happening in one year."
I'm not a statistician, but I am an actuary. I don't know if there's an official collective noun for us, but I've heard "a distribution of actuaries" , as well as "an expense", a "Markov chain", and "an assurance of actuaries". I like the latter.