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  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by Doug.I.Am View Post
    It's been confirmed, Prince to 1B, Cabrera to 3B. I wonder if Verlander is still jumping up and down?
    Well, we'll see. Jim Leyland is known for being his own best counsel. Pitchers and catchers report February 19.

  2. #102
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    As a Yankee fan, I think you are both right and wrong about the A-Roid deal.

    After the 2007 season, A-Roid became a free agent. At that point, you could argue that the Yankees had made a great deal. The problem is that they came crawling back to him and signed a new deal for 10 years at $275 million.

    THAT deal is the problem.
    My bad, I should have clarified what contract I was referring to. I think the first one where Texas was picking up part of the bill was a darn good contract. Made fiscal sense and Arod was quite young back then. The second is the problem. I still would have let him walk when he opted out. Why we came back to him I'll never understand. I get it he was probably still the best or one of the best players in baseball, but to pay him until he's 42 is nuts - especially at that price. And to make matters worse, as soon as he opted out, Texas was off the hook for their portion of the contract so all of it was on us.

  3. #103
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    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of sports teams that disappoint in the playoffs
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    Fielder has played a minimum of 157 games in each of his six full seasons in the big leagues. Last year, he played in all 162.
    Past Performance is No Guarantee of Future Results. Players of Prince's size and girth often seem to have knee, back kind of troubles in their early 30s that all but end their careers.

    Look at his daddy. He was largely healthy and played in 90%+ of his team's games until he was 32. He hit 39 homers at age 32 and played in 160 games. The next year, at age 33, he played in 98 games and hit just 13 homers. At age 34 he played in just 117 games and only hit 17 homers. By 35, he was out of baseball.

    Prince is still young. He will be 28 this year. I would expect him to be well worth the investment for a few years. But, many folks seem to think the odds are excellent that his contract will be a real albatross after a few seasons.

    Of course, that can be said of most of these long-term deals. It seems incredibly rare for a guy to sign for 8+ years and the deal not to be a horrible drain on resources without matching production in the final few years of the deal. On the other hand, no one was going to sign Pujols or Fielder for 5 years so it is not like Detroit or the Angels had the option to get them for fewer years.

    Ahh well, it is what it is and pro baseball has been this way for a while.

    -Jason "for the next few years, this does make Detroit a LOT better, I suspect, so it is hard to look at the deal and scoff too much" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  4. #104
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I like the Fielder contract better than the Pujols contract. In the former, if things go well, the steep performance decline comes at the end of the contract. In the latter, even if things go well, the steep performance decline probably comes in the middle of the contract.

    GM Mozeliak had a presser at Winter Warm-Up, a January event where people pay a lot of money for players' autographs. He explained the economics of letting the franchise player walk, and people applauded him. Hard to imagine that in New York or Boston.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  5. #105
    Nats snag Brad Lidge for 1 mil plus incentives .... that looks like a great deal on its face.
    My Quick Smells Like French Toast.

  6. #106
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Channing View Post
    Nats snag Brad Lidge for 1 mil plus incentives .... that looks like a great deal on its face.
    In the Post today they were quoting his agent as saying that he had higher offers, but that they (Rizzo in particular) had made him very comfortable about his expected role in DC. His agent says he realizes that he won't be closing, with Stroen and Clippard entrenched in the 9th and 8th inning roles,

    The Nats have a REAL strong bullpen now - Storen (Closer), Clippard (Righty, All-Star and primary set-up man), Lidge (Right-handed 7th inning guy), Burnett (lefty 7th inning), Henry Rodriguez (middle/long righty), Gorzlelanny and Detwiler (long-relief lefties and b/u starters), and a few others in the mix. This is a real strength for this team, and I would say this is a big part of how they hope to stretch out Strasburg and Zimm innings-wise until Sept., with both on innings limits. Don't expect a lot of Nats starters to go past 6 innings.

    Importantly, Lidge is supposedly a very strong "character" guy - Werth was quoted as saying that his former (Philly) teammate "Will fit in here very well - he'll class up the clubhouse. He's a classy guy." Though a strength, the BP is also pretty young, and a 35-year-old forner World Series winner/closer as the in-house mentor is a great fit.
    -BDBD

  7. #107
    Yes, well, Lidge, okey dokey. He's a fortunate man, v-e-r-y fortunate.

    In other news, the presser today for Fielder in The D would lead one to believe that Prince is too gimpy, too fat, too slow to have much of an impact and Cabrera can't play third and on and on and on.
    But, as Coach Leyland remarked, "All these guys have to do is trot when they hit it out." Gimme that sweet right field Pepsi Porch. Mmmm-Hmmm.


  8. #108
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
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    Fayetteville, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by weezie View Post
    Yes, well, Lidge, okey dokey. He's a fortunate man, v-e-r-y fortunate.

    In other news, the presser today for Fielder in The D would lead one to believe that Prince is too gimpy, too fat, too slow to have much of an impact and Cabrera can't play third and on and on and on.
    But, as Coach Leyland remarked, "All these guys have to do is trot when they hit it out." Gimme that sweet right field Pepsi Porch. Mmmm-Hmmm.

    I hear what you're saying loud and clear. It's the very same formula the Yankees have used. Unfortunately its fine to club the lesser Sisters of the Poor into submission during the regular season, but once you hit the playoffs your facing quality pitching staffs and the blowouts are few and far between. In the playoffs pitching and defense are premiums you can't overlook.

  9. #109
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA

    2012 MLB "Power Ratings" - TX, NYY, Philly, DET, LAA, StL....

    I posted this on the Nationals thread a little while ago: SI has put out its 2012 MLB "Power Ratings."
    http://cnnsi.com/2012/writers/joe_le...&sct=hp_t13_a2

    American League clearly dominates the top of the power rankings (sigh). And the two Eastern Divisions are ranked highest overall (both have only oine team outside the upper half of the league). Of note to some folks on this board: Det #4, StL #6, ATL #10, Nats #12. Expect some more shifting as we get closer to the start of the season.

    The top teams are:
    1. TX
    2. NYY
    3. Philly
    4. Det
    5. LAA
    6. StL.
    7. TB
    8. BOS

    I thought Weezie and Throaty might particularly enjoy this, as Detroit's purchase of PF for 9 years gave them a major lift, and St. Louis oddly didn't drop very far with Albert's departure (though the Angels sure benefitted from it).
    -BDBD

  10. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    The top teams are:
    1. TX
    2. NYY
    3. Philly
    4. Det
    5. LAA
    6. StL.
    7. TB
    8. BOS

    I thought Weezie and Throaty might particularly enjoy this, as Detroit's purchase of PF for 9 years gave them a major lift, and St. Louis oddly didn't drop very far with Albert's departure (though the Angels sure benefitted from it).
    Well done bdbd, thanks!

  11. #111
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    St. Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    I posted this on the Nationals thread a little while ago: SI has put out its 2012 MLB "Power Ratings."
    http://cnnsi.com/2012/writers/joe_le...&sct=hp_t13_a2

    American League clearly dominates the top of the power rankings (sigh). And the two Eastern Divisions are ranked highest overall (both have only oine team outside the upper half of the league). Of note to some folks on this board: Det #4, StL #6, ATL #10, Nats #12. Expect some more shifting as we get closer to the start of the season.

    The top teams are:
    1. TX
    2. NYY
    3. Philly
    4. Det
    5. LAA
    6. StL.
    7. TB
    8. BOS

    I thought Weezie and Throaty might particularly enjoy this, as Detroit's purchase of PF for 9 years gave them a major lift, and St. Louis oddly didn't drop very far with Albert's departure (though the Angels sure benefitted from it).
    To a certain extent, the Pujols loss is offset by the signing of Beltran and by the (presumed) return of Adam Wainwright.

  12. #112
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    I thought Weezie and Throaty might particularly enjoy this, as Detroit's purchase of PF for 9 years gave them a major lift, and St. Louis oddly didn't drop very far with Albert's departure (though the Angels sure benefited from it).
    Pujols is an older gentleman than Fielder.

    I don't know, but I've gotta think that some of the loss of Pujols' WARP has to be offset by, presumably, getting Wainwright back. The Cardinals won the World Series with their ace shelved for the year. Yeah, old man Carpenter was supposed to be the #2 starter. Name some other teams that won a World Series with their ace sitting all year. There may be one, but I'm ignorant of whom.

    Obviously, the loss of Pujols is a magnificent kick in the groin psychologically, but the SABR guys say that even the greatest players, like ARod07, only give you something like 8 or 10 wins above replacement. Prince is gone. I dunno, y'all. Unless the Reds go nuts, you might could win this division at 86 or 88 wins in 2012.

    It amazes me that I live in a town where the GM came to "Winter Warmup," presented the case for letting the franchise player walk, and the fans applauded him.

    My ancestral Braves fan side of me thinks this is the year the Braves make the playoffs at the Cardinals expense. Like, I said, if the Reds go nuts.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  13. #113
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by rasputin View Post
    To a certain extent, the Pujols loss is offset by the signing of Beltran and by the (presumed) return of Adam Wainwright.
    Hey dude, didn't see your post before I started typing. Yeah, let's say a little prayer for Carlos Betran's knees, and Lance Berkman's whole self.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  14. #114
    Mister Throaty, you seem very much the consummate gentleman, sports savant and poet. You are an even-tempered true fan of every game....but the loss of Bert Pujols may have dimpled your forehead. Wainwright as a psychic replacement for the newest Angel?
    I dunno, my good chum, I just do not know.

  15. #115
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    Quote Originally Posted by weezie View Post
    Mister Throaty, you seem very much the consummate gentleman, sports savant and poet. You are an even-tempered true fan of every game....but the loss of Bert Pujols may have dimpled your forehead. Wainwright as a psychic replacement for the newest Angel?
    I dunno, my good chum, I just do not know.
    No, I hear you. I'm not saying getting Waino back totally offsets losing Pujols. But it may explain those rankings cited above in the thread. Even the biggest impact dudes don't have as big an impact as we'd think, at least according to the SABR guys. It may explain the Birds being 6th. It's a pretty good roster overall. Allen Craig's availability is also important. Will he be healthy?

    I do believe the Cardinals will really lose out on the margins not having Pujols for the next, like, three years. But it was very intelligent of them to let him walk given that the price was $25M/year until his age 42 season. If (not wanting to stereotype Dominican players here, but historically it's a concern) he's even actually 32. What if he's 34? The historical [non-steroids] statistical peak for all position players is the age-31 season. Sluggers age faster than contact hitters, though, Pujols is sort of both. But damn. I think the day the Cardinals lost Pujols is the day they signed Holliday to seven years.

    I don't necessarily expect Saint Louis to win the division this year. I do expect Milwaukee to step back without Fielder (a better investment for Detroit at his age than Pujols for the Angels) and without 50 games of Braun. The Reds may step up. But I guess my point was I think management did the right thing in letting Pujols walk, given the price, and the Beltran signing isn't crazy, at least given the short term. Maybe milk one/two more year(s) out of Berkman? The Cardinals now have five draft picks in the top 58 picks in the April draft, what with Edwin Jackson walking and Pujols walking. Compensational draft picks are good. Mozeliak, these cats, they're looking at the long term. Two recent WS titles, and they want to win more, but they're OK if staying in contention all the time leads to that without a high likelihood in a given year. I think the approach is smart, and--damn--I teach a class where I use Pujols as the subject in example sentences, and I'm worried about losing him--but I think the club is on the right path. The cachet of the sentence is gone, and I don't think they'll win it all in 2012. But I think the likelihood in 2013-2020 of it happening once is far greater than if they'd done drove a dump truck of money up to Albert's house in LaWarsonKirkCouer or wherever.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  16. #116
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    No, I hear you. I'm not saying getting Waino back totally offsets losing Pujols. But it may explain those rankings cited above in the thread. Even the biggest impact dudes don't have as big an impact as we'd think, at least according to the SABR guys. It may explain the Birds being 6th. It's a pretty good roster overall. Allen Craig's availability is also important. Will he be healthy?

    I do believe the Cardinals will really lose out on the margins not having Pujols for the next, like, three years. But it was very intelligent of them to let him walk given that the price was $25M/year until his age 42 season. If (not wanting to stereotype Dominican players here, but historically it's a concern) he's even actually 32. What if he's 34? The historical [non-steroids] statistical peak for all position players is the age-31 season. Sluggers age faster than contact hitters, though, Pujols is sort of both. But damn. I think the day the Cardinals lost Pujols is the day they signed Holliday to seven years.

    I don't necessarily expect Saint Louis to win the division this year. I do expect Milwaukee to step back without Fielder (a better investment for Detroit at his age than Pujols for the Angels) and without 50 games of Braun. The Reds may step up. But I guess my point was I think management did the right thing in letting Pujols walk, given the price, and the Beltran signing isn't crazy, at least given the short term. Maybe milk one/two more year(s) out of Berkman? The Cardinals now have five draft picks in the top 58 picks in the April draft, what with Edwin Jackson walking and Pujols walking. Compensational draft picks are good. Mozeliak, these cats, they're looking at the long term. Two recent WS titles, and they want to win more, but they're OK if staying in contention all the time leads to that without a high likelihood in a given year. I think the approach is smart, and--damn--I teach a class where I use Pujols as the subject in example sentences, and I'm worried about losing him--but I think the club is on the right path. The cachet of the sentence is gone, and I don't think they'll win it all in 2012. But I think the likelihood in 2013-2020 of it happening once is far greater than if they'd done drove a dump truck of money up to Albert's house in LaWarsonKirkCouer or wherever.

    Throaty, we agree alot. Color me optimistic but concerned. Can Berkman stay healthy? Lance had a great year but the Cards org is betting their whole season on a 36 yr old end-of-career slugger. Furthermore, Berkman faded as the season with his shoulder situation. His backup -- Allen Craig has injury concerns.

    I just don't think the Cardinals will stay healthy. Carpenter is a work horse but pitched a career high 237 innings -- following his previous high of 235 innings the year before. Thats a lot of burn for a 36yr-old pitcher. Wainwright should be healthy, but he is coming off of Tommy John surgery...and the potential for minor injuries and/or reduced performance is higher. You have Raffy viejo version 3.4, who hasnt been a picture of good health the last few years. Beltran has higher than normal injury concerns. Hopefully Freese can stay consistent with the bat, but he is not a good defensive 3-bagger. He also has yet to play a full MLB season.

    I just think there are too many question marks. For the last 10 years, the Cardinals offense was predicated on Pujols being a monster in the middle and a team leader. You don't just fill that void overnight. He is what kept the Cardinals consistently good for a decade.

    Last year was a magical run even WITH Pujols. In what world are the Cardinals better without him? You can give me all of the "long-term/long-run" suppositions you want, but those are assumptions nonetheless.

    But I would rather hitch my wagon to an aging star (one who has never played fewer than 140 games his entire career, one who has been the very definition of consistancy, one who is the best hitter since Babe Ruth (or a roided Barry Bonds)) and bet on him to defy the aging curve than on a gaggle of lesser player who are all the same age or older than he his, most of them with extensive injury histories.

    Even if there is a significant decline (and I'm not positive there will be), we will be watching history...all the milestones, the brilliance of his career...his post-career position as Ambassador of Cardinal Baseball. Think of how important Stan Musial has been to the Cardinals and the St Louis community, and imagine the pain 15 years from now as a retired Pujols, the face of Angels baseball, goes into the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest to ever play the game and goes on to represent the Angels organization like Musial has with the Cardinals for the last several decades.

    Everyone is saying, "good for the long term" when really it is good for the ownership who have no truly long term interest in St Louis or the Cardinals...just near-term. They are the short-sighted ones. Give the ownership credit, good PR they got the fans to believe their interests are the same as Bill DeWitts ownership group.
    Last edited by theAlaskanBear; 02-03-2012 at 10:38 AM.

  17. #117

    Cards

    As a reasonably non-biased observer (my teams are the Yankees, No. 1 and the Braves, No. 2), let me opine that the best thing the Cards have going for them is their division.

    No way they are one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball without Pujols ... I don't think they were top 3-4 WITH him. After all, they were a 90-win team that only reached the playoffs because the Braves blew out their bullpen and endured an epic collapse. They were a 90-win team with the best hitter in baseball.

    But they represent what baseball has become -- everything depends on the playoffs (just as in NCAA basketball, NHL and NBA). I'm not ripping the 2011 Cardinals per se -- more power to them for taking advantage of the sistem. I'm merely criticizing a system that allows a team that's the 7th or 8th best over 162 games to get hot in October and run the table. I hated it when the Marlins did it. I hated it when the Red Sox did it ... and I'll hated it even if my beloved Yankees ever do it. I know other sports do it, but for most of its history, baseball was about the long term. I think there was a logic to that -- more than any other sport, individual baseball games are hard to predict. The worst team in baseball wins one third of the time. The best team loses one third of the time. In a 5 or 7 game senies, the worse team has a real chance to pull the upset.

    That said, there is no way the 2012 Cardinals will be as good as the Phillies or Rangers or Yankees or Angels -- or even IMHO the Braves.

    But they WILL be better than the Cubs, the Pirates, the Astros and probably the crippled Brewers (especially if Braun misses 50 games). If I'm right about that, all they have to do it beat out the Reds to reach the playoffs. Then it's a matter of getting hot at the right time. The combo of Wainwright and Carpenter could be a big asset in a short playoff series.

  18. #118
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Northern VA
    Quote Originally Posted by Olympic Fan View Post
    As a reasonably non-biased observer (my teams are the Yankees, No. 1 and the Braves, No. 2), let me opine that the best thing the Cards have going for them is their division.

    No way they are one of the top 3-4 teams in baseball without Pujols ... I don't think they were top 3-4 WITH him. After all, they were a 90-win team that only reached the playoffs because the Braves blew out their bullpen and endured an epic collapse. They were a 90-win team with the best hitter in baseball.

    But they represent what baseball has become -- everything depends on the playoffs (just as in NCAA basketball, NHL and NBA). I'm not ripping the 2011 Cardinals per se -- more power to them for taking advantage of the sistem. I'm merely criticizing a system that allows a team that's the 7th or 8th best over 162 games to get hot in October and run the table. I hated it when the Marlins did it. I hated it when the Red Sox did it ... and I'll hated it even if my beloved Yankees ever do it. I know other sports do it, but for most of its history, baseball was about the long term. I think there was a logic to that -- more than any other sport, individual baseball games are hard to predict. The worst team in baseball wins one third of the time. The best team loses one third of the time. In a 5 or 7 game senies, the worse team has a real chance to pull the upset.

    That said, there is no way the 2012 Cardinals will be as good as the Phillies or Rangers or Yankees or Angels -- or even IMHO the Braves.

    But they WILL be better than the Cubs, the Pirates, the Astros and probably the crippled Brewers (especially if Braun misses 50 games). If I'm right about that, all they have to do it beat out the Reds to reach the playoffs. Then it's a matter of getting hot at the right time. The combo of Wainwright and Carpenter could be a big asset in a short playoff series.
    Hey Olympic. Yeah, that's the interesting thing about the SI Power Ratings -- they rank all MLB teams 1-30. I too am a Cards fan - grew up on Musial, Gibson, Lou Brock, Tim McCarver, Red S., etc. and root for them only behind my now-hometown Nats. (After all, isn't it a requirement of good decorum that one root for the team geographically the closest to you... Right Duke fans??) But I just have to disagree with SI putting them 6th overall, and second in the NL. I don't see how the questionable healthy Wainwright makes up for the #1 player in baseball. Everything would have to go right for them to end the regular season with, for example, the second most wins in the NL. I see Cincy and Atl. and maybe a couple others possibly, as more likely to end up ahead of them.

    As an avowed NL fan, and a despiser of all things DH, I have to say this looks like a pretty good year for the AL. I could easily see the case for NO NL teams deserving to be in the top 5, with Philly the only one even in the competition... As a Nats fan, I just hope they move to the extra Wild Card slot so my Nats have a better chance to make the playoofs in the brutal NL East (almost as brutal as the AL East!).

    BTW, I don't see Bos or anyone else in the AL East making the required moves to really challenge your Yanks this year in the AL East in all likelihood. But am very OK with the playoffs deciding things, otherwise the team with the biggest payroll likely wins every time (or maybe half?). What fun would that be??!




    Quote Originally Posted by -bdbd View Post
    I posted this on the Nationals thread a little while ago: SI has put out its 2012 MLB "Power Ratings."
    http://cnnsi.com/2012/writers/joe_le...&sct=hp_t13_a2

    American League clearly dominates the top of the power rankings (sigh). And the two Eastern Divisions are ranked highest overall (both have only oine team outside the upper half of the league). Of note to some folks on this board: Det #4, StL #6, ATL #10, Nats #12. Expect some more shifting as we get closer to the start of the season.

    The top teams are:
    1. TX
    2. NYY
    3. Philly
    4. Det
    5. LAA
    6. StL.
    7. TB
    8. BOS

    I thought Weezie and Throaty might particularly enjoy this, as Detroit's purchase of PF for 9 years gave them a major lift, and St. Louis oddly didn't drop very far with Albert's departure (though the Angels sure benefitted from it).
    Last edited by -bdbd; 02-03-2012 at 12:05 PM.
    -BDBD

  19. #119
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Skinker-DeBaliviere, Saint Louis
    I don't like the idea of Pujols with an Angels hat on his Cooperstown plaque either, but I really can't see any way he plays fifteen seasons for them. He's not Jamie Moyer or Nolan Ryan, he's an aging slugger with iffy elbows. Even if he is only 32, I don't even see him finishing the ten-year contract. I'd be surprised if he plays past about age 39. 2019 season maybe. Bonds played to 43, yeah, but there were a lot of dinosaur stem cells or something involved there. Look at Chipper Jones. He's held together with duct tape. I'm assuming Pujols is clean...he's not playing fifteen seasons in Anaheim.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Whos gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  20. #120
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I don't like the idea of Pujols with an Angels hat on his Cooperstown plaque either, but I really can't see any way he plays fifteen seasons for them. He's not Jamie Moyer or Nolan Ryan, he's an aging slugger with iffy elbows. Even if he is only 32, I don't even see him finishing the ten-year contract. I'd be surprised if he plays past about age 39. 2019 season maybe. Bonds played to 43, yeah, but there were a lot of dinosaur stem cells or something involved there. Look at Chipper Jones. He's held together with duct tape. I'm assuming Pujols is clean...he's not playing fifteen seasons in Anaheim.
    The fifteen was the 10+5 for hall-of-fame eligibilty...

    I do think he will play out his contract though, especially since Anaheim has a DH. You don't need much of a pulse to play 1st base though.

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