Hot Stove League

[Mal]

... and most scouts believe that Darvish is a far better prospect.

That is logically impossible, unless Darvish is far and away the greatest prospect in the history of baseball. Daisuke was the hottest prospect of all time, with a mythical corkscrew pitch that no one would ever be able to hit, and more bite on his high '90's fastball than Roger Clemens. And it's all turned out to be true!

Seriously, though, it's hard to believe some of these guys who were breathlessly hyping Dice-K when they now tell us "This guy's much better!" Nolan Ryan seems to know what he's doing so far, but this is a very expensive gamble.

Unrelated to oly's post, Jason Evans upthread thinks Mike Piazza may or may not make the H.o.F. Unless there's a general steroids taint of some sort that makes it so that no non-pitchers who peaked in the 1990's are allowed in, or something specific around Piazza (and more legitimate than him supposedly telling some reporter off the record that at some point he dabbled in andro), there is no way on Earth he doesn't make it. He's probably the best hitting catcher ever. Not a great defensive catcher by any stretch, but even adequacy at the position is more of a contribution defensively than a great corner outfielder, and he hit like a great corner outfielder.

[Olympic Fan]

That is logically impossible, unless Darvish is far and away the greatest prospect in the history of baseball. Daisuke was the hottest prospect of all time, with a mythical corkscrew pitch that no one would ever be able to hit, and more bite on his high '90's fastball than Roger Clemens. And it's all turned out to be true!

Seriously, though, it's hard to believe some of these guys who were breathlessly hyping Dice-K when they now tell us "This guy's much better!" Nolan Ryan seems to know what he's doing so far, but this is a very expensive gamble.

Unrelated to oly's post, Jason Evans upthread thinks Mike Piazza may or may not make the H.o.F. Unless there's a general steroids taint of some sort that makes it so that no non-pitchers who peaked in the 1990's are allowed in, or something specific around Piazza (and more legitimate than him supposedly telling some reporter off the record that at some point he dabbled in andro), there is no way on Earth he doesn't make it. He's probably the best hitting catcher ever. Not a great defensive catcher by any stretch, but even adequacy at the position is more of a contribution defensively than a great corner outfielder, and he hit like a great corner outfielder.

Agree with your assessment of Piazza -- he is CLEARLY the best-hitting catcher in history. His OPS plus is 142 is significantly better than Bench (126), Berra (125) or Campanella (123) -- the three guys who usually vie for the title of best ever. I'd give Bench that title -- he and Berra were both great defensive catchers, but Bench did it in an era when more guys ran, so his defensive ability was more valuable ... I have him by a hair ahead of Berra and Berra by a hair ahead of Campanella (partially because he had a short career -- started late because of segregation and ended early because of his accident). Piazza or Cochrane can vie for fourth place. Of course, Josh Gibson may be the greatest ever -- probably the one catcher who hit better than Piazza, a mediocre to poor defensive catcher (but as Mal says, with that bat, even mediocre catching made him one of the most valuable catchers off all time). By reputation, Gibson was a top-lflight defensive catcher under late in his career ... except with a curious problem handling pop-ups.

BTW, I also agree with the his sarcastic comments about Darvish. It might work out, but it's an awfully high price to pay for a gamble. As a Yankee fan, I'd like to see us strengthen the rotation, but I'm glad we didn't win the bidding war for his negotiating rights.

[JasonEvans]

Now the Rangers have to sign Darvish -- they just paid all that money to earn the right to negotiate with him.

Just to clarify, the above comment by Oly Fan is not true. The $51 mil fee is only paid if the negotiations result in a signed contract. If the Rangers negotiate with Darvish and the two sides cannot reach an agreement, the Rangers do not pay the $51 mil to Darvish's Japanese team.

Still, these kind of negotiations always end with the player being signed so it would seem extremely likely that the Nippon Ham Fighters (awesome name, by the way) will be $51 mil richer and Darvish will be in a Ranger uniform next season.

-Jason "here is a really nice analysis I found about why Darvish may not be as injury prone as Dice-K and a better prospect as a result" Evans

[Blue in the Face]

Gio Gonzalez to the Nats. They're collecting some starting pitching over there.

[BlueDevilBaby]

Gio Gonzalez to the Nats. They're collecting some starting pitching over there.

Hurray! And coming on heels today of a pretty scathing article by Boswell in the WaPo describing the Lerners as pulling on the purse strings again after progress last year (not that I would call the Jason Werth-less deal a stunning success yet). They must think Gonzalez is worth it to give up two pretty good young pitchers they were rather high on at the end of last season. I like his two pretty consistent seasons myself.

[Jim3k]

Hurray! And coming on heels today of a pretty scathing article by Boswell in the WaPo describing the Lerners as pulling on the purse strings again after progress last year (not that I would call the Jason Werth-less deal a stunning success yet). They must think Gonzalez is worth it to give up two pretty good young pitchers they were rather high on at the end of last season. I like his two pretty consistent seasons myself.

And I, as an A's fan, am not certain about how this will work out for the A's. I've like Gio a lot since he's been here. He's a good guy and Curt Young brought him along just fine (with Ron Romanick getting the 2011 credit), leading Gio to an all-star selection last year. I'm not against trading for players that will make the team better, but I must confess I have no idea about the Nats' players they get for him. Three pitchers, two of whom are ready and a catcher. The A's are pretty set at catcher with Kurt Suzuki and backup Landon Powell. But perhaps Derek Norris will turn out to be better in the long run. He seems to have good OPS, but hits in the .210+ range. Not certain that's something to build on.

Similarly, Tom Milone has only pitched 26 innings for the Nats while Brad Peacock has only 12. A.J. Cole is a 19-year-old class A pitcher who seems to be a few years away.

I know the jury is out, and I generally trust what Billy Beane does, but I'm not seeing an upgrade here. Maybe these young arms will pan out, but it won't be this year. Plus this is all happening as Wolff and Fisher pan for gold in both San Jose and Oakland.

SF Chron A's beatwriter Susan Slusser says:

I just spoke to a major-league scout who is familiar with all the players the A’s received and he told me,

“I don’t know how Oakland could have done better.”
“They got the right set of names,” he said. “Quality and depth.”

That's a hopeful, but anonymous, thing to be saying.

[Blue in the Face]

Beltran to the Cardinals on a 2-year deal. Certainly not a riskless signing, but it's pretty short, and if he can stay healthy, he's coming off an awfully strong year.

[BlueDevilBaby]

And I, as an A's fan, am not certain about how this will work out for the A's. I've like Gio a lot since he's been here. He's a good guy and Curt Young brought him along just fine (with Ron Romanick getting the 2011 credit), leading Gio to an all-star selection last year. I'm not against trading for players that will make the team better, but I must confess I have no idea about the Nats' players they get for him. Three pitchers, two of whom are ready and a catcher. The A's are pretty set at catcher with Kurt Suzuki and backup Landon Powell. But perhaps Derek Norris will turn out to be better in the long run. He seems to have good OPS, but hits in the .210+ range. Not certain that's something to build on.

Similarly, Tom Milone has only pitched 26 innings for the Nats while Brad Peacock has only 12. A.J. Cole is a 19-year-old class A pitcher who seems to be a few years away.

I know the jury is out, and I generally trust what Billy Beane does, but I'm not seeing an upgrade here. Maybe these young arms will pan out, but it won't be this year. Plus this is all happening as Wolff and Fisher pan for gold in both San Jose and Oakland.

SF Chron A's beatwriter Susan Slusser says:

That's a hopeful, but anonymous, thing to be saying.

I'm a Nats season ticket holder and follow the team very closely. I've been excited about Peacock and Milone being in the pipeline and maybe making the roster next season. Not being an expert scout, I was impressed by both at the end of last season. Frankly, a fellow fan and I were pretty shocked that the Nats were willing to trade both of them. Don't know much about Norris, so that should tell you something.

Hope it works out for both teams.

[Jim3k]

The comment I'm seeing is that the A's have traded OF Ryan Sweeney and closer Andrew Bailey for a player like Ryan Sweeney.

Makes sense to me. Today, the A's traded Sweeney and Bailey to the Red Sox for Josh Reddick and Class-A players Miles Head and Raul Alcantara. Reddick is a decent outfielder, just like Sweeney, except Reddick bats 40 points less. The other two are a pitcher and first baseman. The first baseman is Miles Head, and the A's want to convert him to third base.

Yeah. This is going to turn out well...

There are now people calling the A's, the AAA's. And you know the reason why.

[CDu]

Reddick is a decent outfielder, just like Sweeney, except Reddick bats 40 points less.

That's a misleading statement. Reddick's career average is 35 points lower than Sweeney's, but that is heavily influenced by two brief call-ups before he was MLB ready. And that's ignoring the fact that AVG is a pretty outdated and limited view of offensive value.

Last season (in his first season predominantly in the big leagues at 24) Reddick posted an OPS higher than anything Sweeney has done in his four big league seasons. He may end up with similar AVG skills but he has more power. I think most would expect Reddick to continue to hit better than Sweeney, just like he did last season.

[Jim3k]

That's a misleading statement. Reddick's career average is 35 points lower than Sweeney's, but that is heavily influenced by two brief call-ups before he was MLB ready. And that's ignoring the fact that AVG is a pretty outdated and limited view of offensive value.

Last season (in his first season predominantly in the big leagues at 24) Reddick posted an OPS higher than anything Sweeney has done in his four big league seasons. He may end up with similar AVG skills but he has more power. I think most would expect Reddick to continue to hit better than Sweeney, just like he did last season.

Last year's RBIs are roughly the same. Reddick is younger. But in Fenway, Sweeney is likely to blossom, while Reddick will fall backwards at the Oakland Coliseum. It's just not hitter friendly.

[CDu]

Last year's RBIs are roughly the same. Reddick is younger. But in Fenway, Sweeney is likely to blossom, while Reddick will fall backwards at the Oakland Coliseum. It's just not hitter friendly.

RBI is another outdated/limited stat, as that is a team-dependent stat. Reddick had an ISO (SLG minus AVG; basically a measure of the number of extra bases per AB) of .177 compared with Sweeney's .076. That's a fairly dramatic difference. Reddick is younger and has more power, as he has shown throughout the minors (where again Reddick's ISO was much higher than Sweeney's).

Sweeney will benefit from hitting in Fenway. But Reddick is the better offensive prospect.

[Jim3k]

RBI is another outdated/limited stat, as that is a team-dependent stat. Reddick had an ISO (SLG minus AVG; basically a measure of the number of extra bases per AB) of .177 compared with Sweeney's .076. That's a fairly dramatic difference. Reddick is younger and has more power, as he has shown throughout the minors (where again Reddick's ISO was much higher than Sweeney's).

Sweeney will benefit from hitting in Fenway. But Reddick is the better offensive prospect.

Well...I guess I appreciate your ardor in favor of Reddick--loss of a favorite player. But the fact is, that this trade did not make the A's better, which is the point of my original post. Sweeney is a fine outfielder as you will discover, very fast and very sure, fine arm. He plays center well, though usually is in right. I don't think anyone can say for sure that Reddick makes the A's better defensively. I doubt that Reddick is any improvement, so fielding is most likely a wash. Losing Bailey alone makes them worse.

And I wouldn't get so excited about which stats are more important in discussing this trade. The field changes alone will dictate different numbers. Sweeney will improve somewhat, but he's a singles/doubles line drive guy and doesn't do much in the clutch. The verdict is still out on Reddick and the large foul territory at the Coliseum will hurt him just as it hurts every A's player.

[Jim3k]

And now the Contra Costa Times' Monte Poole has called out A's management and Selig himself on integrity grounds over what the A's are doing.

Poole

The con is kaput, the game over. A's ownership, having run out of patience, isn't even pretending to care about competing, much less pleasing its fans.

Dedicated first and last to themselves, the owners have upped the ante. In their desire to leave Oakland, they've stopped waiting for or pleading with Major League Baseball commissioner Bud Selig, as well as anyone else who was listening.
They have moved into the next phase, one of such utter defiance that it stomps all over the ideals of the game.
By trading the players who have represented Oakland in the last three All-Star games, all in a three-week span, the A's are announcing they're packing it in for 2012 and maybe even 2013.

[CDu]

Well...I guess I appreciate your ardor in favor of Reddick--loss of a favorite player. But the fact is, that this trade did not make the A's better, which is the point of my original post. Sweeney is a fine outfielder as you will discover, very fast and very sure, fine arm. He plays center well, though usually is in right. I don't think anyone can say for sure that Reddick makes the A's better defensively. I doubt that Reddick is any improvement, so fielding is most likely a wash. Losing Bailey alone makes them worse.

And I wouldn't get so excited about which stats are more important in discussing this trade. The field changes alone will dictate different numbers. Sweeney will improve somewhat, but he's a singles/doubles line drive guy and doesn't do much in the clutch. The verdict is still out on Reddick and the large foul territory at the Coliseum will hurt him just as it hurts every A's player.

I wouldn't call it ardor in favor of Reddick. I couldn't care much less about either player. I was just pointing out what I felt to be an incorrect assessment of the two players based on inferior statistical measures. Reddick is younger and has shown more offensive ability in the minors than Sweeney showed in the minors, and he hit better than Sweeney did last year in his one meaningful stretch of time in the big leagues to this point. I think Reddick is the better prospect/player of those two. Considering that and the additional 3 years the A's can afford Reddick over Sweeney (based on the two players' arbitration year schedules) I think that part of the trade is a win for the A's. The only question is then whether Head and Alcantara will be more valuable in 2-3 years than Bailey will be.

By no means was I saying that this move makes Oakland better right now. It doesn't. Bailey and Sweeney will likely combine for more MLB value next year. It's clear that Oakland is mailing in this year (probably the next 2-3 years) in hopes that they can build something down the road (in perhaps a new location?). I think the aggressiveness of Anaheim and Texas's success combined with Oakland's cheapness made them decide to trade current assets for future assets. It's certainly got to be a tough time to be an A's fan.

My point was simply that I'd take Reddick over Sweeney. Based on their minor league careers, I don't think the changes in ballparks will result in Sweeney producing better stats than Reddick. That doesn't mean I like the trade for Oakland or that I think Reddick is some great player.

[Blue in the Face]

Jesus Montero, we hardly knew ye - Yankees trade Montero and Hector Noesi to the M's for Michael Pineda and a 19 year old who pitched in low A in 2011. Pineda faded in the 2nd half, but that's hardly damming for a rookie, and after a bad July he did put up some good starts later in the season. Pretty huge trade, and presumably Austin Romine is smiling somewhere. The yanks topped things off by signing Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year deal - quite a revamping of the rotation in one night.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Jesus Montero, we hardly knew ye - Yankees trade Montero and Hector Noesi to the M's for Michael Pineda and a 19 year old who pitched in low A in 2011. Pineda faded in the 2nd half, but that's hardly damming for a rookie, and after a bad July he did put up some good starts later in the season. Pretty huge trade, and presumably Austin Romine is smiling somewhere. The yanks topped things off by signing Hiroki Kuroda to a 1-year deal - quite a revamping of the rotation in one night.

So now that they've traded Montero, does that open up the possibility of Jorge Posada giving it one more year? He was supposed to announce his retirement last week, but so far hasn't done so that I have seen. Hmmm.

Sorry to see Montero go after hearing about him for so many years and finally getting a delicious taste last summer/fall. And Noesi pitched very well for the Yanks last season as their long reliever. Hope the new guys pan out for us!

As for those smiling, besides Austin I'm sure Francisco Cervelli is pretty excited too!

[Olympic Fan]

So now that they've traded Montero, does that open up the possibility of Jorge Posada giving it one more year? He was supposed to announce his retirement last week, but so far hasn't done so that I have seen. Hmmm.

Sorry to see Montero go after hearing about him for so many years and finally getting a delicious taste last summer/fall. And Noesi pitched very well for the Yanks last season as their long reliever. Hope the new guys pan out for us!

As for those smiling, besides Austin I'm sure Francisco Cervelli is pretty excited too!

An interesting deal -- the Yankees traded one of the best young bats in baseball for one of the best young arms. Apparently, Yankee fans are loudy condemning the deal, but I think it was a very good gamble. Pineda is a potential No. 1 starter.

He did fade late last year, but as noted, that's hardly discouraging for a 22-year-old rookie,. He is a monster -- a 6-7, 230-pound righthander with a consistent 95 mpg fastball (judged the third-best in baseball). Last season he was 9-10 for a bad Seattle team with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.099 WHIP. He had 173 strikeouts in 171 innings. He had similar numbers in the minors. He's a GREAT prospect, not a good one ... of course the gamble is that great pitching prospects are always more of a gamble that great hitting prospects. Montero is a great hiitting prospect, but he is likely to end up as a career DH ... he's not much of a catcher.

I don't think this means anything for Posada -- I saw several stories that he DID announce his retirement. Besides, the Yankees are solid at catcher with Russell Martin, backed up by Cervelli and the upcoming Romine. A year or two down the pike, they have Sanchez coming up -- and he is a better all-around catchimg prospect than Montera-Romine.

Whiel it's easy to look at the deal as Pineda for Montera, there were two other guys in the deal. The Yanks sent Noesi, a minor league pitcher who is just about ready for the majors, getting Jose Campos, am 18-year-old who just completed his first season of A Ball. Another interesting twist -- Campos is a MUCH better prospect (167 Ks in 171 minor league innings), but Noesi is much more ready for the majors.

Kuroda uis another great addition. Love that the Yankees refused to sign the mediocre Edwin Jackson to a rich five-year deal with two of the best pitching prospects in baseball (Banuelos and Bettances) less than a year away. Insteadm, we got Kuroda for one year (at a reasonable $10). He's 36-years old, but he coming off a 3.07 seasons -- he had one of the top 10 adjusted ERAs inj baseball last year for a starter. He's been very consistent over his career. Never a big winner, but a solid innings eater.

The addition of Pineda and Kuroda gives the Yankees a LOT of flexibility in their rotation -- CC, Pineda, Nova, Hughes, Kuroda, Garcia and (if we have to) Burnett. Plus we get Feliciano and Chamberlain back in the bullpen after both were sidelined last year with injuries.

[Blue in the Face]

So now that they've traded Montero, does that open up the possibility of Jorge Posada giving it one more year? He was supposed to announce his retirement last week, but so far hasn't done so that I have seen. Hmmm.

Posada had no role on the team well before Montero was called up, a year later he has less than no role. His excellent post-season was a fitting farewell, not an indication that a return is in order.

[Olympic Fan]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, but the Braves just re-signed 34-year-old veteran SS Jack Wilson, who was with them last September, to a one year deal at $1 million, plus incentives.

The story is that he's being brought in to mentor Tyler Pasternicky, the Braves SS of the future.

Wilson is a weak bat, but he's still regarded as a first-class defensive SS.

In addition, the Braves just re-signed Prado, rather than going to aribtration with him. The trade possibility for Prado and Jurrijens are not dead, but the chances of a deal happening appear to be fading.

An update:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/S...-role-22014484