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  1. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by gumbomoop View Post
    I agree with this, but want to point out what is surely a logical extension of this prediction, should it come true: it means K will use a legitimate 9-man rotation.

    Inside: MP1, MP2, Kelly = 75-80 mpg, with mop-up minutes/DNP for JH and MP3
    Perimeter: SC, AD, AR = ~90 mpg, leaving 30-32 mpg to be roughly equally split among 3 of these 4: TT, AM, QC, MG. Most likely MG slips down.

    I could be persuaded that by late season, either TT or QC will lose minutes to the other, which would, in turn, mean K goes back to an 8-man rotation, which might or might not include QC. And if not, QC doesn't quite average double-figure mpg. But QC redshirt, no. He'll play some, and someday soon enough be a star.

    It's also possible, if unlikely, that MG's defense could prove more valuable than AM's all-around game, in which case AM doesn't average double figure.

    There seems a clear top-6 this season, so it's reasonable to argue about who, by January, will be #s 7-9 [and thus part of the rotation], and who #s 10-12 [and thus mostly not, save for blowouts]. One thing that would muddle predictions about mpg would be if each [i.e., every one] of #s 7-12 bring enough to justify their playing substantial minutes in some games. In which unusual-for-K-case, Duke would display a 10-11 man rotation.

    Unlikely, but not impossible, given this particular mixture of players. After all, among the things we know about K, these 2: (a) he settles on an 8-man-rotation, at most; (b) he's flexible, and molds his team according to the actual players on the team.
    Agreed. In competitive games, I expect an 8-man rotation with the bench consisting of MP2, Murphy, and Thornton (although a swap of Kelly for MP2 is possible, of course).

    And like others, I don't really expect a redshirt to happen given Coach K's history of not using it. MP3 is the longshot possibility but even he will have a "role" as the center during mop-up duty whenever Duke blows out a team. The mop-up lineup: Fr Cook, Fr Gbinije, Fr Murphy, So Hairston, Fr Plumlee.

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Let's say we're playing UNC and both Plumlees have two fouls with eight minutes left in the first half. While I hope this never happens, it wouldn't be a shock to me if it did. In this case would you prefer

    a.) Kelly guards Zeller, MG or AM guards Henson, Dawkins guards Barnes
    b.) MP3 guards Zeller, Kelly guards Henson, Dawkins or MG/AM guards Barnes.

    Neither of these is a particularly great scenario, and we'd probably do a little of both. I understand that UNC has the deepest frontcourt in the country and is far from a typical opponent, but my point is that it's not completely unforeseeable that we could need MP3 to play some minutes. If we find ourselves in the above situation and he's been redshirted so he's not even available, on the off chance that he decides to stay for a fifth year, then that just wouldn't make any sense to me.

  3. #23
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Let's say we're playing UNC and both Plumlees have two fouls with eight minutes left in the first half. While I hope this never happens, it wouldn't be a shock to me if it did. In this case would you prefer

    a.) Kelly guards Zeller, MG or AM guards Henson, Dawkins guards Barnes
    b.) MP3 guards Zeller, Kelly guards Henson, Dawkins or MG/AM guards Barnes.

    Neither of these is a particularly great scenario, and we'd probably do a little of both. I understand that UNC has the deepest frontcourt in the country and is far from a typical opponent, but my point is that it's not completely unforeseeable that we could need MP3 to play some minutes. If we find ourselves in the above situation and he's been redshirted so he's not even available, on the off chance that he decides to stay for a fifth year, then that just wouldn't make any sense to me.
    I would not surprise me if Marshall sat during that scenario even if he were available. We're basically trying to steal a few minutes so I could see K letting one big play with 2 fouls or going with Josh at 4 or even one of AM or MG at 4. UNC can shoot over you as good as anyone but they also have an annoying habit on getting wide open dunks if your bigs don't rotate quickly and appropriately. I would rather Henson shoot over Josh than have MP3 watching him dunk it. Im not saying that Marshall wont be ready to play D because I have no idea but my point is that the tallest guy is not always the best defender and weve seen Coach K choose to go small before in similar situations.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    MP3 didn't even take off his sweats last night, so that points pretty well to redshirting. I met him early in the morning as we set up our tailgate, and he was all smiles. In fact, he's been all smiles every time I met him, hr has a great attitude. If my brain hadn't been soggy and cold I would have loved to think to ask him about the redshirt, but it was and I didn't.
    Mmmm, BBQ!

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    MP3 didn't even take off his sweats last night, so that points pretty well to redshirting. I.
    I wouldn't make that assumption. It could just mean that K hasn't yet made up his mind. If Marshall plays, he can't redshirt. But not playing doesn't preclude playing down the line.

    As an aside, what an absurd rule. An exhibition game is designed to help a team figure out things without the game actually counting. So, why not allow a potential redshirt to play and thus enable the team to better make that decision? The game doesn't count. So, why should it count? If you know what I mean.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
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    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I wouldn't make that assumption. It could just mean that K hasn't yet made up his mind. If Marshall plays, he can't redshirt. But not playing doesn't preclude playing down the line.

    As an aside, what an absurd rule. An exhibition game is designed to help a team figure out things without the game actually counting. So, why not allow a potential redshirt to play and thus enable the team to better make that decision? The game doesn't count. So, why should it count? If you know what I mean.
    I thought freshmen were allowed to play in exhibition games and then redshirt, but not sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Is that not right?

  7. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I thought freshmen were allowed to play in exhibition games and then redshirt, but not sophomores, juniors, and seniors. Is that not right?
    That's what someone above said.
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  8. #28
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    The analysis seems pretty basic to me:

    As long as MP1, MP2 and Kelly stay healthy, we're going to be just fine at the two big man positions.

    Therefore, it comes down to whether MP3 will be of more benefit playing minimal minutes this year, OR
    would he be more valuable as a fifth year senior four years hence. (Remember The Zoub.)

    Barring injury to others, I'd be stunned if MP3 averaged more than a minute or two per game this year, so a redshirt would seem to make obvious sense.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Let's recruit and SIGN ready to play athletes.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    Let's recruit and SIGN ready to play athletes.
    like zoubek and nolan and lance....
    usa

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilsfan View Post
    Let's recruit and SIGN ready to play athletes.
    Duke has had a fair amount of success over the years with players who took some time to develop.
    Which of these players would you rather not have signed?


    John Smith; 91 minutes played as a freshman
    Brian Davis; 244 mp as a freshman
    Marty Clark,; 104 mp as a freshman, 268 as a sophomore
    Kenny Blakeney; 175 mp as a redshirt freshman
    Eric Meek, 143 freshman
    Greg Newton, 115 freshman
    Carmen Wallace, 45 freshman
    Nate James, 144 freshman
    Casey Sanders, 144 freshman
    Lee Melchionni 71 freshman
    David McClure, 184 freshman
    Brian Zoubek, 235 freshman
    Miles Plumlee, 165 freshman
    Ryan Kelly, 227 freshman


    Were any of these players ready-to-play freshmen? Yet, all eventually became players of consequence for Duke, players who helped Duke win championships. Why would we assume that Marshall Plumlee isn't capable of joining that list?

  12. #32
    Waste of a perfectly good shirt, unless you expect any of these guys to be students at Duke for 5 years. I would assume that the plan is to either graduate by the end of the fourth year or be in the NBA by then.

  13. #33
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    As I've stated elsewhere, K has a strong inclination to not redshirt. Matt Christensen was Duke's last non-injury redshirt of a recruited player and those circumstances were fairly unusual. So, I think the default is no redshirt.

    Let me throw another variable into the mix. Duke hopes to know something about Parker and McGary sometime in the next week. Duke won't know for sure about Mason and the NBA until later.

    Does this impact any decision on Marshall? Let's posit a worst-case scenario, in which Mason goes pro and Duke does not sign a big. That would leave a 4/5 rotation next season of Kelly, Hairston, Marshall and some Murphy at the 4. Would Marshall be more effective as a sophomore rather than a redshirt freshman, even if the difference is only a 100 or so mop-up minutes?

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    ...Let's posit a worst-case scenario, in which Mason goes pro and Duke does not sign a big. That would leave a 4/5 rotation next season of Kelly, Hairston, Marshall and some Murphy at the 4. Would Marshall be more effective as a sophomore rather than a redshirt freshman, even if the difference is only a 100 or so mop-up minutes?
    I think that's the key issue. If I'm football coach at Oklahoma or Alabama and have the equivalent of MP3 (a four star recruit with a whole bunch of previously-recruited 4 and 5 star recruits in front of him, including an NFL-ready starter, which is the case for most of their starters), i'd probably red shirt him as a lineman but let him play as a 4th string skills player. A 6'4" 280 pounder can gain a lot of strength and size in a year away from the gladiator pit and then be ready to get in their rotation. A 5'11" wide receiver is probably best getting the reps, and may develop more quickly than I expect. But all of basketball is akin to being a wide receiver aside from the occasional player who has a log ways to go to grow into their unusually long bodies--and duke hasn't needed to recruit projects for quite a while, and mp3 is hardly a project.

    Yes, it would've been nice to have had Zoubs back for a 5th year, and a year off would likely have allowed him to resolve the nagging injuries that slowed him so much for 3 years. I don't think the staff recognized the extent of those injuries, however, or they would've red shirted him. That simply isn't mp3's situation, and it's not like he isn't ready to participate in college basketball. And, anyway, do you think they can really give up the photo op of all 3 brothers playing in the same game? I'd bet the photo will be hung in Cameron before Miles graduates.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    As I've stated elsewhere, K has a strong inclination to not redshirt. Matt Christensen was Duke's last non-injury redshirt of a recruited player and those circumstances were fairly unusual. So, I think the default is no redshirt.

    Let me throw another variable into the mix. Duke hopes to know something about Parker and McGary sometime in the next week. Duke won't know for sure about Mason and the NBA until later.

    Does this impact any decision on Marshall? Let's posit a worst-case scenario, in which Mason goes pro and Duke does not sign a big. That would leave a 4/5 rotation next season of Kelly, Hairston, Marshall and some Murphy at the 4. Would Marshall be more effective as a sophomore rather than a redshirt freshman, even if the difference is only a 100 or so mop-up minutes?
    I'd rather have a red-shirt Freshman next year with a 5th year Senior down the road than a Sophomore with garbage time experience. You get a year of practice either way and how useful are garbage minutes anyway? I think MP3 probably uses all 4-years of eligibility either way. But that said, it comes down to his choice. If he wants to compete for minutes this year rather than taking a year to develope in practice only then I think you gotta let him play.

    As far as MP2 goes I think if he's a guaranteed first rounder this year he needs to go. He may still have some value to the Pros for "potential" after his Junior year but not so much as a Senior. It seems like the only way to improve draft position as a senior is to have a break out year like Kemba Walker. But I guess that will be a thread for April and May...

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Philadelphia
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    It seems like the only way to improve draft position as a senior is to have a break out year like Kemba Walker.
    Except Kemba Walker was only a junior.

  17. #37

    Talking

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Except Kemba Walker was only a junior.
    That explains why he only had time to read 1 book.

  18. #38
    To me what trumps a red-shirt is having all three Plumlees making history on floor together on Miles' senior night.

    There is ample time to recruit centers who will be as formidable as Marshall will be in 5 years.

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by ACCBBallFan View Post
    To me what trumps a red-shirt is having all three Plumlees making history on floor together on Miles' senior night.

    There is ample time to recruit centers who will be as formidable as Marshall will be in 5 years.
    Although I understand it can't be a deciding factor...the chance to have all three brothers playing for the same college (practicing doesn't carry the same weight) is pretty cool. Only redshirt Marshall if he is 99% sure he will stay 5 years; otherwise it is a waste.

  20. #40
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    I think it will be a silent redshirt of MPIII. I don't think you will see all three brothers on the court at once this year as K only plays those that are "ready to play" and have earned playing time.

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