Originally Posted by
gumbomoop
I agree with this, but want to point out what is surely a logical extension of this prediction, should it come true: it means K will use a legitimate 9-man rotation.
Inside: MP1, MP2, Kelly = 75-80 mpg, with mop-up minutes/DNP for JH and MP3
Perimeter: SC, AD, AR = ~90 mpg, leaving 30-32 mpg to be roughly equally split among 3 of these 4: TT, AM, QC, MG. Most likely MG slips down.
I could be persuaded that by late season, either TT or QC will lose minutes to the other, which would, in turn, mean K goes back to an 8-man rotation, which might or might not include QC. And if not, QC doesn't quite average double-figure mpg. But QC redshirt, no. He'll play some, and someday soon enough be a star.
It's also possible, if unlikely, that MG's defense could prove more valuable than AM's all-around game, in which case AM doesn't average double figure.
There seems a clear top-6 this season, so it's reasonable to argue about who, by January, will be #s 7-9 [and thus part of the rotation], and who #s 10-12 [and thus mostly not, save for blowouts]. One thing that would muddle predictions about mpg would be if each [i.e., every one] of #s 7-12 bring enough to justify their playing substantial minutes in some games. In which unusual-for-K-case, Duke would display a 10-11 man rotation.
Unlikely, but not impossible, given this particular mixture of players. After all, among the things we know about K, these 2: (a) he settles on an 8-man-rotation, at most; (b) he's flexible, and molds his team according to the actual players on the team.