Top Movies of the Holidays

[JasonEvans]

OK I will.

I went to the premiere last night of New Year's Eve.

In a word, it was awful.

Nobody should be surprised by that, given the premise and the fact that it is a follow-up to Valentine's Day. IMO, New Year's Eve is even worse.

There are WAY too many plot lines, if you can even call them that, because they tried to squeeze in roles for so many stars. The stories were insipid. The "resolutions" of these stories were utterly predictable. A lot of the acting was amateurish (Jon Bon Jovi gets this much screen time? Really?) The dialogue was groan-inducing. There were a few attempts at production of tear-jerking moments which actually worked on some audience members, but they were pathetic, tired, and derivative. Worst, there was nothing funny in the entire movie. I watched this thing in a HUGE theater absolutely full of industry people who were there to support the movie, the stars, their friends and family members who made the movie, and even this crowd didn't crack a smile.

Any questions?

Well, OK, I will tell you that at the afterparty, Sofia Vergara and Katherine Heigl both looked stunning.

I flirted a little with "Katie." Made her laugh.

I saw a screeing of NYEve last night and fully agree with the above. It is godawful. Most of the myriad of story lines are more depressing than uplifting. Aside from Sofia Vergara playing a sexy cougar, there is almost nothing funny in the movie. I thought this was supposed to be a comedy, or at least mildly funny. Michelle Pfeifer played a character that was so depressing, I thought she was going to commit suicide -- either that or pull out a gun and go postal on everyone.

There are so many stars, it is sorta off-putting. I mean, you get folks like Matthew Broderick, John Lithgow, Jim Belushi, Carey Elwes, and Alyssa Milano showing up for like 1 or 2 lines and barely in 1 or 2 scenes. I found it distracting for throw-away characters to be played by recognizable faces and it only heightened the depressing feeling of the movie to see some of the has-been actors showing up for a small payday.

Wanna know the definition of a bad movie? I can confidently say that the best thing in this film was the bloopers that ran during the credits. Yes, I am saying that the parts where the stars screwed up their lines were far, far better than the parts where they got their lines right. That is the definition of a lousy film. Please, please, please... stay away!!!

-Jason "looking for a date flick? Go see My Week With Marilyn or the amazing The Descendants instead" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

Tell me which films are good, not which ones make box office.

If you are looking for a unique, adult, entertaining film, can I suggest 'The Artist', which has been in limited release since Nov. 25

It's not for everybody -- it's a silent, black and white film from France. But it's about Hollywood (shot in LA) and -- like Singing in the Rain -- it's about the tumult created by the coming of sound. There's also an element of 'A Star is Born' as the fading silent star falls for and nutures the extra with talent, whose career soars past him.

It's not that that story is original, but ... I can't describe what makes this film so astonishing, but I'm certain that it's going to be my No. 1 film for 2011 -- by a mile.

Check out Turian's glowing review in the LA Times. Jason, have you reviewed it?

[JasonEvans]

Check out Turian's glowing review in the LA Times. Jason, have you reviewed it?

It is an absolute shoe-in to get multiple Oscar nominations and is probably the front-runner, alongside The Descendants, for Best Picture and Best Actor.

I had a screening the other day but could not make it because my son had a basketball game and I always choose family over other stuff. I hope to see it very soon. It has not opened in most cities yet.

-Jason "note- early front-runners tend to fade but this flick does feel quite unique" Evans

[Reisen]

Well, OK, I will tell you that at the afterparty, Sofia Vergara and Katherine Heigl both looked stunning.

I flirted a little with "Katie." Made her laugh.

I'm jealous. Seriously. I've had a thing for Heigl ever since that movie with the French dude who played her father... (ok, I'm really tired if that's all I can come up with).

Anyway, I got invited to the afterparty for the NYC premier, but already had plans. Bummer.

[JasonEvans]

If anyone would care to listen, here is an MP3 of my radio appearance this morning where I talked about how much I hated New Year's Eve. Instead, I told listeners to go see My Week With Marilyn instead.

-Jason "I am seeing Dragon Tattoo on Monday... can't wait!!!" Evans

[tommy]

If anyone would care to listen, here is an MP3 of my radio appearance this morning where I talked about how much I hated New Year's Eve. Instead, I told listeners to go see My Week With Marilyn instead.

-Jason "I am seeing Dragon Tattoo on Monday... can't wait!!!" Evans

So . . . it's Monday! What's the skinny?

[Olympic Fan]

Jason, maybe you can help me out ...

I thought Mission Impossible went into general release Friday, but when I checked the box office this morning I saw that it had only made $13 million over the weekend -- an absolutely terrible debut for a big-budget action movie. It finished $10 million behind the Alvin and the Chipmunks and far less than half of Sherlock Holmes.

Then I look more closely and see that it was only in 425 theaters (both Alvin and Sherlock Holmes opened in 3700-plus theaters). It actually made more per theater than any other movie last weekend.

What was the strategy and when does it go into general realease?

Holmes had a good opener with $40 million plus. It won't catch Twilight (266.4 and still going), but so far we don't have a strong No. 2 -- Putt n' Boots is there now at $142.8 million and is almost done.

The field is open for Holmes and MI, if it can sustain strength through a more widespread opening.

The schools let out this week ... what does that do to the kiddie movies (the Muppets are up to $70.9 million, but did little last weekend ... Hugo and Arthur Christmas are pretty dead at just under $40 ... Happy Feet is stalling at just under $60 million). Will any of them get a boost from the schoolkids being out?

[davekay1971]

My understanding is that MI4:GP opened mostly on IMAX screens, and that it was a very strong opening for that limited screenage. MI4 will have it's first full opening weekend on Christmas weekend. Given the highly positive reviews and the strong limited opening...not to mention the lack of quality competition...MI4 may end up with a very strong box office. I'm now expecting it to finish number 2 behind (gag) TeenSpiritLight Saga: Cougar Dawn. Tin Tin is the other big arrival next weekend, but it will probably have a different draw than MI4, and therefore won't likely pull much business from the big live-action crowd.

Sherlock Holmes 2 actually had a weaker opening than was hoped for. I think the first Sherlock Holmes opened to about 60 million. Not good news for a sequel that's not been much better reviewed than the original, although if it can hit that 3x multiplier than JE has talked about, that would probably put it in the top 5 for our contest's purposes.

The kiddie offerings have tanked one after another, but, hey, it goes to show that if you offer up something crappy enough, parents may actually say NO to the kiddies' request to see the newest Chipmunk/dancing penguin garbage.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3327

[JasonEvans]

DK nailed it. MI4 opened only on IMAX screens. The IMAX surcharge probably served to nicely boost the per theater take. I also expect that the early IMAX release has served to sap some of the usual opening weekend demand, which probably will knock a bit off the first weekend take next week. But, good word of mouth may make up for that. I saw MI:4 last week and really enjoyed it.

The opening for Sherlock was really disappointing to Hollywood. The final number came in at just under $40 mil (first reported at just over $40 mil, but it looks like the Sunday actuals were worse than forecast). That's a 35% drop from the opening of Sherlock 1 two years ago, which is a bad sign for demand for this film. Still, it has gotten fairly good reviews and the word of mouth should be ok because it got a solid A- Cinemascore from folks who saw it this weekend. If Sherlock 2 continues to track 35% below what the original did 2 years ago ($209 mil), it will make $135 million. Ordinarily, such a number would come up short in our Top 5 of Winter quest... but this is a really down season and I suspect $135 will make it into the top 5.

Here are our current standings --

1. Twilight: BD pt 1 - $266 mil
2. Puss in Boots - $142 mil
3. Immortals - $81 mil
4. Tower Heist - $75.7 mil
5. Muppets - $70.9 mil

Folks who banked on Chipwrecked must be especially disappointed. It only did $23 mil. Even if it hits a very high 4x multiplier, it is looking at a total of less than $100 mill. I just can't see it making the Top 5. Heck, it probably won't be in the top 8 or 9 of the season.

We need to see how Dragon Tat and MI:4 do in wide release next week but I expect both to perform better than Sherlock 2. If I had to guess right now, I would expect the Top 5 to be:
1. Twilight
2. MI: 4
3. Dragon Tattoo
4. Puss
5. Sherlock or War Horse or Tintin

As an aside, I have seen all of these movies and would rank them (by quality) in the following order.

1. MI:4
1a. Dragon Tattoo
3. Tintin
4. Sherlock
5. War Horse
6. Puss
7. Twilight

-Jason "by the end of next weekend, we should have a muuuch better idea how this will end up" Evans

[weezie]

Saw "My Week With Marilyn" and "The Descendants" this past weekend.
"Marilyn" is a chick flick and I can say that as a chick. Yes, yes, not a young chick, ha ha.
Plenty of lingering closeups on Michelle Williams but Kenneth Branaugh is fantastic. Kind of a snoozy story though.

"Descendants" is easily everything fantastic being said about Clooney but it is not a 'skip through the pineapple plants' Hawaiian lark.
The plot is very emotionally intense and something the viewer has to brace for in advance. There is a calm, inevitable ending but it takes some fortitude
to get there.

Looking forward to "Tattoo" and and "Iron Lady"!

[Olympic Fan]

My understanding is that MI4:GP opened mostly on IMAX screens, and that it was a very strong opening for that limited screenage. MI4 will have it's first full opening weekend on Christmas weekend. Given the highly positive reviews and the strong limited opening...not to mention the lack of quality competition...MI4 may end up with a very strong box office. I'm now expecting it to finish number 2 behind (gag) TeenSpiritLight Saga: Cougar Dawn. Tin Tin is the other big arrival next weekend, but it will probably have a different draw than MI4, and therefore won't likely pull much business from the big live-action crowd.

Sherlock Holmes 2 actually had a weaker opening than was hoped for. I think the first Sherlock Holmes opened to about 60 million. Not good news for a sequel that's not been much better reviewed than the original, although if it can hit that 3x multiplier than JE has talked about, that would probably put it in the top 5 for our contest's purposes.

The kiddie offerings have tanked one after another, but, hey, it goes to show that if you offer up something crappy enough, parents may actually say NO to the kiddies' request to see the newest Chipmunk/dancing penguin garbage.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3327

I'm not an expert on kiddie films, but I'm interested in the apparent failure of so many ballyhooed kid films.

Almost every one out this season has underperformed/tanked. That includes those with terrible reviews - Alvin and the Chipmunks, Happy Feet -- and those with great reviews -- Hugo, the Muppets, Arthur Christmas. The closest thing to a kiddie success is the well-reviewed Puss and Boots (interesting that Tin Tin is getting exactly the same 83 percent rating at RT).

My question is, it it just bad movies or is the market changing? It seems like Christmas was always a great time to release Christmas movies. Are kid's doing other things now? Or am I just too early -- asked in my last post about the impact of schools letting out ... will we see the kiddle box office explode the next two weeks?

BTW, interesting that the one certified box office smash this Christmas season is one of the worst reviewed films out there (the Twilight movie). Not THE worse. As near as I can tell, the three worse reviewed movies of the year (in the top 50) are 3. Alvin and the Chipmunks (14 on the tomatometer), 2. New Year's Eve (7 on the tomatometer) and the No. 1 the biggest sinker of all, the Adam Sandler epic Jack and Jill (a miniscule 4 on the tomatometer).

[JasonEvans]

Having Xmas fall on a weekend day makes calculating weekend grosses difficult and not entirely indicative of which movies were strong and weak over the weekend. No one goes to the movies on Xmas Eve, but a ton of people go on Xmas day and the 26th too. What's more, we had new movies opening at all kinds of crazy times during the past week (Dragon Tat opened on Tues, MI4 went wide on Wed, TinTin opened on Wed, We Bought a Zoo opened on Friday, War Horse opened on Sunday). It is a mess!

Still, it is worth looking at where the contenders are right now and what their prospects appear to be--

I now think MI4 is going to be the #2 movie of the season, behind Twilight. It is at more than $78 mil through Monday and seems to be generating strong word-of-mouth. There is talk it will be the most successful of all the Mission Impossible films, which would require it to make more than $215 mil.

Sherlock 2 is clearly running well behind the original, but seems to have decent word-of-mouth too because it is still a very solid #2 in theaters. It is at $90 mil through Monday and will probably be around $120 mil by the end of next weekend. It is going to be in our Top 5.

I am ready to concede that I made a bad call on Dragon Tattoo. It is at $27 mil through Monday, a performance which almost certainly means the film will struggle to make even $100 mill at the domestic boxoffice. I cannot understand why there is not more of an audience for this flick, as the reviews have been excellent and it should have a huge built-in audience among people who have read the book or at least heard of it.

Family films, War Horse, We Bought a Zoo, and Tintin are all very early in their release cycle, so it is hard to tell if any will be a big contender for our Top 5. It looks like Tintin, despite great reviews and being a massive hit overseas, is not really connecting with a US audience. Still, the next 7 days are days where kids are out of school and family films just clean up! Chipmunks will hope to benefit from this as well. We'll know more about these films in a week though they may all just divide the market and none of them will be big hits.

So, to sum up -- I think we have 3 locks for the Top 5 in Twilight, MI4, and Sherlock 2. I am thinking Puss is getting close to being a lock because everyone else is under-performing. Still too early to figure out the contenders for the 5th spot. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close played to nothing but sellouts in very limited release the past couple days. It won't expand wide for a few more weeks but it could be a contender.

-Jason "whew-- this movie season has just been a MESS so far" Evans

[Olympic Fan]

So, to sum up -- I think we have 3 locks for the Top 5 in Twilight, MI4, and Sherlock 2. I am thinking Puss is getting close to being a lock because everyone else is under-performing. Still too early to figure out the contenders for the 5th spot. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close played to nothing but sellouts in very limited release the past couple days. It won't expand wide for a few more weeks but it could be a contender.

-Jason "whew-- this movie season has just been a MESS so far" Evans

I have never done well in these polls. I always let my own prejudice influence my vote (hence, my mistaken vote for "Cowboys and Aliens" last summer). I almost voted for the one Christmas movie I wanted to see ("Harold and Kumar III").

But for this one, I tried to be dispassionant. I hate the Twilight series and I very much disliked Sherlock Holmes and the MI series ... but I knew they would be big money-makers. I think I guessed right on Puss 'N Boots over the Muppets/Alvin/Hugo/Happy Feet. The first three were easy. Pure luck on the fourth one.

That's four out of five. Now I've got to sweat out "Tintin" I haven't seen it and I don't plan on seeing it, but it would be neat to go 5-for-5 in our poll.

Is there a prize?

[JasonEvans]

Is there a prize?

The great admiration of all your fellow posters. Plus, I think the person who wins should post something saying they won and many of us can give them pitchfork points on that post. In your case, the points may not matter all that much, but it would be nice to be the first person to -- for example -- 10 pitchforks

-Jason

[El_Diablo]

Updated box office totals as of 12/27 (with estimated daily take for 12/27 for those films still in theaters, in order to help show current momentum):

Twilight                    $271,934,000        (750,000)   
Puss in Boots               $143,935,000 
Paranormal Activity 3       $103,831,682 
Sherlock Holmes             $103,674,000      (7,315,000)
Mission Impossible          $86,163,000       (9,613,000)
Immortals	            $82,196,342 	
The Muppets	            $77,839,891	      (1,014,000)
Tower Heist	            $76,371,860          (54,000)
Jack and Jill	            $71,059,708 
Chipmunks                   $63,279,892       (6,811,000)
Happy Feet Two	            $60,257,000         (140,000)
Hugo	                    $44,927,000       (1,175,000)
Arthur Christmas 	    $44,068,000         (500,000)
New Year's Eve	            $37,892,000       (1,660,000)
In Time	                    $36,911,769 
J. Edgar	            $36,254,000          (60,000)
Harold & Kumar              $34,534,186 
The Descendants	            $34,393,495	        (830,000)
Dragon Tattoo               $32,476,000	      (4,650,000)
Tintin                      $27,682,000       (4,570,000)
The Sitter                  $23,570,380         (585,000)
War Horse                   $22,414,524       (4,173,000)

Based on this, I would say four of the top five are pretty much locked in at this point: Twilight, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible, and Puss in Boots. I suppose it's possible that another film passes Puss in Boots, but I doubt that two will, so it's looking pretty safe now. As for the fifth movie, Paranormal Activity 3 is currently the leader at $103.8 million, but I am not sure if it is eligible as a write-in candidate (it opened in late October, around the same time as Puss in Boots). It may be a moot point, however, because Chipmunks, Dragon Tattoo, Muppets, and possibly Tintin or even War Horse could eventually surpass it. Of those five contenders, Chipmunks clearly has the strongest momentum right now, but Dragon Tatttoo probably has the best chance to maintain its legs past the holidays due to its target audience and good reviews. War Horse also has a decent chance to get some legs, but it has a long way to go at this point and doesn't have quite the same reviews, built-in audience, and overall buzz that Dragon Tattoo has. So IMO the fifth film will likely come down to Chipmunks vs. Dragon Tattoo.

I am a little surprised at the low opening week for Dragon Tattoo, but I think there are many people, like myself, who plan to see it at some point but were not beating down the door to see it right away because they've already read the book and/or seen the Swedish version. So it may take another couple weeks to see how it's really doing. It might not explode like True Grit did at this point last year, but it could chug along long enough to beat out Chipmunks.

[Olympic Fan]

I would say four of the top five are pretty much locked in at this point: Twilight, Sherlock Holmes, Mission Impossible, and Puss in Boots. I suppose it's possible that another film passes Puss in Boots, but I doubt that two will, so it's looking pretty safe now. As for the fifth movie, Paranormal Activity 3 is currently the leader at $103.8 million, but I am not sure if it is eligible as a write-in candidate (it opened in late October, around the same time as Puss in Boots). It may be a moot point, however, because Chipmunks, Dragon Tattoo, Muppets, and possibly Tintin or even War Horse could eventually surpass it. Of those five contenders, Chipmunks clearly has the strongest momentum right now, but Dragon Tatttoo probably has the best chance to maintain its legs past the holidays due to its target audience and good reviews. War Horse also has a decent chance to get some legs, but it has a long way to go at this point and doesn't have quite the same reviews, built-in audience, and overall buzz that Dragon Tattoo has. So IMO the fifth film will likely come down to Chipmunks vs. Dragon Tattoo.

I am a little surprised at the low opening week for Dragon Tattoo, but I think there are many people, like myself, who plan to see it at some point but were not beating down the door to see it right away because they've already read the book and/or seen the Swedish version. So it may take another couple weeks to see how it's really doing. It might not explode like True Grit did at this point last year, but it could chug along long enough to beat out Chipmunks.

It's looking more and more like Chipmunks is going to take the fifth spot. Last weekend, Alvin and his buddies did another $18.2 million -- more in its third week than Dragon Tattoo did in its second. With $94.6 million so far, Chipmunks is just $10 million behind Paranormal 3, which is dead (and is it eligible anyway?).

This is all bad news for me ... I had Tintin, but even with $10 million last weekend, it's going to come up well short. So I gues I have to settle for four out of five (which is still a lot better than I usually do).

[JasonEvans]

Here's the one thing I will say about Chipmunks, the audience will really dry up in the next couple days as kids go back to school and adults go back to work (and have no interest in entertaining the little kiddies). January is traditionally a good month for adult dramas, not kid flicks. I am not sure Chipmunks will get there. I think it gets to about $125-130 mil.

Meanwhile, there now appears to be little question that MI4 will be the #2 movie of the season (it is at $141 mil and was #1 at boxoff over the weekend) while Sherlock seems a lock to be #3 (it is as $136 mil and was #2 at boxoff).

I think Dragon Tattoo will only get to about $100 or maybe $110 mil unless it scores a few Oscar noms, including a Best Picture nom, to give it a boost. I was dead wrong about the market for that film.

Unless something strange happens, Tintin, We Bought a Zoo, and War Horse are all gonna come up short too. I guess it is possible that Chipmunks does get the #5 spot in our contest with only about $130 mil in boxoffice. I cannot see any other real contenders at this time.

--Jason "It has been a really bad season for Hollywood" Evans

[Jim3k]

Is Hugo starting to get legs as word of mouth begins to have an impact? When I saw Hugo a few days ago, at a matinee, the theater was pretty full, though I concede that it was a multiplex theater which wasn't all that large. Even so, the audience buzz as we left was very favorable.

[Olympic Fan]

Is Hugo starting to get legs as word of mouth begins to have an impact? When I saw Hugo a few days ago, at a matinee, the theater was pretty full, though I concede that it was a multiplex theater which wasn't all that large. Even so, the audience buzz as we left was very favorable.

Hugo made a pitiful $2.5 million in its seventh week of release. It's total is still under $50 million.

We won't know the new figures until Monday, but it would be a box office miracle if it suddenly found an audience.

[Olympic Fan]

I'm not sure what the cutoff of this contest is, but it looks to be all bit over.

No surge for Hugo (1.6 million last week ... now at 52.6 million, well off the pace). Mission Impossible (169.6) and Sherlock Holmes (157.) have locked up second and third place behind Twilight (the only $200 million plus movie of the season). Puss n' Boots seems safe at No. 4 at 146.6 million.

The only question is whether the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (76.9) can catch Alvin and the Chipmunks (111.6). I doubt it -- it's a pretty big gap and Tattoo Girl barely edged Alvin in last week's boxoffice (11.4 million to 9.5 million).

I got the first four, but looks like my No. 5 pick -- Tintin -- is out of it.

Apparently, nobody got all fve (assuming Chipmonks remains No. 5), so a bunch of us tied at 4 out of 5 ... I'll take it. It's the best I've ever done in this poll.

BTW: Did anybody notice th humongous frst weekend for The Devil Inside? It cost Paramont $1 million, they put little traditional advertising money in it (apparently a lot of internet stuff) and grossed $33.7 million the first week ... and that's with a 6 percent rating on RT (the secondworst of the winter ... on Jack and Jill was lower). It's the third biggest January opening in history.