Phase II - Football 2011

[Wander]

Why not? The team deserves more serious attention. I'm calling the second phase the rest of October - that's the upcoming bye week and games against FSU, Wake, and Virginia Tech.

1. Can Duke stay reasonably healthy?
Just like basketball, this is paramount. Unlike basketball, multiple major injuries are guaranteed - you just hope they don't pile onto a single position. Duke's talent is upgraded from the Roof years, but we're obviously still not a team that has star players in reserve. An injury at certain positions - which I'll superstitiously avoid mentioning - would be devastating.

2. Have Juwon Thompson and the offensive line established a running game?
I'm speaking relatively here. For too many years, Duke's running game was miserable, with an awkward rotation of backs and an offensive line that was simply in over their heads talent-wise. Our identity will and should be as a passing team, but for the past few games, our rush has been good enough to keep defenses honest and do some damage. You could argue part of that is due to lousy defenses, but I think at least some has to be attributed to genuine improvement. Is this going to continue, and how do you factor in Desmond Scott coming back from injury when Thompson has been playing so well?

3. Is Will Snyderwine fixed?
The Duke kicking game used to be the absolute worst unit I've ever seen in college sports. I don't say this to keep piling on previous Duke teams, but for me personally, seeing Cutcliffe turn our biggest weakness into a strength in his first season was one of the things that immediately made me a believer in his coaching abilities (anyone else remember Joe Surgan's 50+ yarder during Cut's first year?). We all know that our preseason all-ACC kicker got off to a rough start. If that was just a statistical fluke or a hiccup related to injuries, and Will reverts back to the form we've seen him capable of, our chances of success go up immensely.

4. Does the defense have a pass rush in them?
As loran said in another thread, it seems our defense is being forced to choose between guarding big plays and guarding medium plays, but not both. As a result, we've been giving up a lot of yardage. A pass rush will help that. We hit some bad luck and lost our best pass rusher to injury, but we need to find a way to work around that. This is probably the biggest area for improvement, and it's something to watch going forward.

5. How will Duke's recent success translate to more talented opponents?
Two of our next three games are against FSU and Virginia Tech. There's no way around it - they're both vastly more talented, and either victory would be a huge upset. But I wouldn't lose hope. Duke put up a good fight against Stanford for a half, the games are at home, we get an extra week to prepare for FSU, and neither team is as good as the Cardinal. We're no longer a team that doesn't have to be taken seriously. I think everyone agrees that the improvements since the Stanford game are partially genuine and partially due to mediocre opponents, but the next three games are going to tell us the degrees of each.

6. Is the team mentally strong?
Jim Sumner pointed out after the Richmond loss that the team's psyche seemed a little fragile - that the team expected to score on their first possession, and was deflated afterward. Let's say some of the worse scenarios happen. If Duke gets routed by FSU after two weeks of preparation, do we still play our best game against Wake Forest? If Duke loses a heartbreaker to Wake (again, ugh), do we still believe we have a shot at Virginia Tech? The team needs to realize the schedule for October is tough, and not let the season start spiraling out control if the losses begin to pile up.

7. Does Duke have a home field advantage?
All three games are at home! If we want to start throwing the B-word around, Duke absolutely needs one of these wins. I've stayed away from criticizing lack of fan support, but we desperately need to take advantage of the fact that the team isn't going to leave Durham for an entire month.

[uh_no]

word I heard from a person close to the team was that snyderwine wasn't 100% coming into the season, causing some of the issues, and he aggravated it on the onside attempt

[loldevilz]

1. Can Duke stay reasonably healthy?
The bye week can't come at a better time. Moore, Butler and a few more should be back in time for FSU. Of course, the loss of Anunike will hurt for the rest of the season. Hopefully, they can refuel for the true start of ACC play.

2. Have Juwon Thompson and the offensive line established a running game?
There is definitely improvement. I was impressed that we were able to run the ball when it mattered last game, scoring two rushing TDs, but the production needs to be improved. Thompson is definitely our best back and Dez Scott should only be used as a backup. Plus, I still want to see Jamison Crowder get a few more reverses every game. I really believe that he is just gonna break through one of these games for an 80 yard TD.

3. Is Will Snyderwine fixed?
Hopefully.

4. Does the defense have a pass rush in them?
Its getting better, still not where you'd like it. We had more sacks than our opponents last game which is nice.

5. How will Duke's recent success translate to more talented opponents?
I'm optimistic. I don't think we have a shot against FSU, but we can at least hope to not get routed. Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech are all really tough games but I'm hoping that we can win the turnover battle or two and keep maybe pull off the upset. We have the ability to be a really explosive offense, so I definitely think we can put up points, but the truth is that this schedule is really tough. Even Wake looks really good. But hey, at least we don't play Clemson!

6. Is the team mentally strong?
I believe it is. You don't pull out two nail bitters like that and not be mentally tough. This team definitely has an edge and a desire to win. I don't think they will be rattled by anyone.

7. Does Duke have a home field advantage?
Probably not. But the nice thing is that Duke seems to be a pretty good road team.

[CDu]

2. Have Juwon Thompson and the offensive line established a running game?
There is definitely improvement. I was impressed that we were able to run the ball when it mattered last game, scoring two rushing TDs, but the production needs to be improved. Thompson is definitely our best back and Dez Scott should only be used as a backup. Plus, I still want to see Jamison Crowder get a few more reverses every game. I really believe that he is just gonna break through one of these games for an 80 yard TD.

Have actually seen any reverses run for Crowder, or have we just seen end-arounds? I don't remember any actual reverses, but I do remember some end-arounds.

I agree he has game-breaking speed, though. It seems like he's just not making guys miss by quite enough. It's exciting to see him get the ball.

[Duke of Nashville]

Why not? The team deserves more serious attention. I'm calling the second phase the rest of October - that's the upcoming bye week and games against FSU, Wake, and Virginia Tech.

1. Can Duke stay reasonably healthy?
Just like basketball, this is paramount. Unlike basketball, multiple major injuries are guaranteed - you just hope they don't pile onto a single position. Duke's talent is upgraded from the Roof years, but we're obviously still not a team that has star players in reserve. An injury at certain positions - which I'll superstitiously avoid mentioning - would be devastating.

No more play-action rolls to the weak side, please.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

3. Is Will Snyderwine fixed?
Hopefully.

No (at least not that I know of...). And his foot is still injured too. This comes first hand from the (male) person closest to Will, not on the team. Last week is the first week that he started to feel any improvement/reduction in pain in his injury since training camp, which is a good sign. And hopefully the trend will continue during the off week and into the FSU game. His confidence, i.e., his mind, has "been fixed" with his success the last two weeks!

[loran16]

Have actually seen any reverses run for Crowder, or have we just seen end-arounds? I don't remember any actual reverses, but I do remember some end-arounds.

I agree he has game-breaking speed, though. It seems like he's just not making guys miss by quite enough. It's exciting to see him get the ball.

Just end-arounds. But announcers mistake the two really frequently, as they did in the last game.

Reverses were a common Ted Roof Gimmick. I wouldn't mind a Flea Flicker though.

[OldPhiKap]

Just end-arounds. But announcers mistake the two really frequently, as they did in the last game.

Reverses were a common Ted Roof Gimmick. I wouldn't mind a Flea Flicker though.

Stanford used one against us early, IIRC.

THAT'S how bad we scared 'em. Chickens.

[Newton_14]

Why not? The team deserves more serious attention. I'm calling the second phase the rest of October - that's the upcoming bye week and games against FSU, Wake, and Virginia Tech.

1. Can Duke stay reasonably healthy?
Just like basketball, this is paramount. Unlike basketball, multiple major injuries are guaranteed - you just hope they don't pile onto a single position. Duke's talent is upgraded from the Roof years, but we're obviously still not a team that has star players in reserve. An injury at certain positions - which I'll superstitiously avoid mentioning - would be devastating.

2. Have Juwon Thompson and the offensive line established a running game?
I'm speaking relatively here. For too many years, Duke's running game was miserable, with an awkward rotation of backs and an offensive line that was simply in over their heads talent-wise. Our identity will and should be as a passing team, but for the past few games, our rush has been good enough to keep defenses honest and do some damage. You could argue part of that is due to lousy defenses, but I think at least some has to be attributed to genuine improvement. Is this going to continue, and how do you factor in Desmond Scott coming back from injury when Thompson has been playing so well?

3. Is Will Snyderwine fixed?
The Duke kicking game used to be the absolute worst unit I've ever seen in college sports. I don't say this to keep piling on previous Duke teams, but for me personally, seeing Cutcliffe turn our biggest weakness into a strength in his first season was one of the things that immediately made me a believer in his coaching abilities (anyone else remember Joe Surgan's 50+ yarder during Cut's first year?). We all know that our preseason all-ACC kicker got off to a rough start. If that was just a statistical fluke or a hiccup related to injuries, and Will reverts back to the form we've seen him capable of, our chances of success go up immensely.

4. Does the defense have a pass rush in them?
As loran said in another thread, it seems our defense is being forced to choose between guarding big plays and guarding medium plays, but not both. As a result, we've been giving up a lot of yardage. A pass rush will help that. We hit some bad luck and lost our best pass rusher to injury, but we need to find a way to work around that. This is probably the biggest area for improvement, and it's something to watch going forward.

5. How will Duke's recent success translate to more talented opponents?
Two of our next three games are against FSU and Virginia Tech. There's no way around it - they're both vastly more talented, and either victory would be a huge upset. But I wouldn't lose hope. Duke put up a good fight against Stanford for a half, the games are at home, we get an extra week to prepare for FSU, and neither team is as good as the Cardinal. We're no longer a team that doesn't have to be taken seriously. I think everyone agrees that the improvements since the Stanford game are partially genuine and partially due to mediocre opponents, but the next three games are going to tell us the degrees of each.

6. Is the team mentally strong?
Jim Sumner pointed out after the Richmond loss that the team's psyche seemed a little fragile - that the team expected to score on their first possession, and was deflated afterward. Let's say some of the worse scenarios happen. If Duke gets routed by FSU after two weeks of preparation, do we still play our best game against Wake Forest? If Duke loses a heartbreaker to Wake (again, ugh), do we still believe we have a shot at Virginia Tech? The team needs to realize the schedule for October is tough, and not let the season start spiraling out control if the losses begin to pile up.

7. Does Duke have a home field advantage?
All three games are at home! If we want to start throwing the B-word around, Duke absolutely needs one of these wins. I've stayed away from criticizing lack of fan support, but we desperately need to take advantage of the fact that the team isn't going to leave Durham for an entire month.

Great idea for a thread, and we definitely need to make it a new staple for Football threads in the future. Great analysis also. You hit on several key points imo. Great job!

2. Have Juwon Thompson and the offensive line established a running game?
I am really bummed here. Not at JT or the O-Line, both are much improved. I am bummed that the running game is not going to approach the level it would have approacehd without the injuries. Do not want to go Tom O'Brien and harp on injuries (seriously Tom, give it a rest), but it hurts to have seen Desmond pre-injury, and know it will take some magical healing to get him back to that level this year. I think the fact that he got hurt against Richmond, combined with the fact we lost the game, causes folks to maybe not realize just how well he ran the ball that game. He ran the ball incredibly well that night, and look poised to have a great year. Had Desmond not went down, and had Josh not gotten hurt, I feel our running game would have take significant steps forward. The running game is still improved, and Thompson has been really good. If we can Desmond back to say, 90%, and get Josh back in the mix, we should be able to run the ball effectively, even against ACC opponents. At least effectively enough to take pressure off of the passing game. Next year, I fully expect us to have a running game that teams will have to respect.

3. Is Will Snyderwine fixed?
Kicking FG's is a little bit like shooting free throws, and making putt's. Seeing the darn thing go through the goal posts does wonders for the mind! Will's confidence appears to be back, and all the reports are indicating the injury is healing up. We just may have our 1st Team All-American caliber kicker back soon. Will is a valuable, heck, invaluable weapon. Many a game has come down to a FG, so having a healthy Will Snyderwine may push us over the top in 1 or 2 key games down the road.

5. How will Duke's recent success translate to more talented opponents?
6. Is the team mentally strong?
These two go hand in hand imo. The 3 wins in a row should go a long way in repairing the mental damage the Richmond game caused. It looks like the guys have their mojo back, and it is critical. They have to run out of that tunnel in every game believing they can not only compete, but that they can win. The positive we can already take from the 3 wins, is that unlike last year, we did not lose 2 or 3 games on the same Saturday when we lost to Richmond and Stanford. I thought the Alabama game last year cost us the next 2 games as well. The Wake loss last year might have combined with the Alabama loss to put them in the post-Bama funk, or it could have just been the Bama hangover alone. Either way, this season, the guys did not allow that to happen. That's more evidence of progress made in the program in my view.

I am looking forward to the tough stretch coming up, to see how well the guys can perform against some really good competition.

[devildeac]

word I heard from a person close to the team was that snyderwine wasn't 100% coming into the season, causing some of the issues, and he aggravated it on the onside attempt

That is indeed correct and I have heard that from more than one reliable source.

[Newton_14]

That is indeed correct and I have heard that from more than one reliable source.

Yeah, I really wish the initial injury would have been disclosed. Kid took a lot of unfair criticism in those first two games. Had folks known he was injured, it likely would have quelled some of that. (Not that it was fair anyway, but that is another story altogether).

Good to hear he is on the road to recovery.

[Duvall]

May be time to rethink the assessment of the next three games...

[Bob Green]

May be time to rethink the assessment of the next three games...

I agree. For starters, Wake Forest looks more formidable than Florida State. There is lots of football left to be played this afternoon, but Wake has a 25-17 lead in the 3rd quarter.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

I agree. For starters, Wake Forest looks more formidable than Florida State. There is lots of football left to be played this afternoon, but Wake has a 25-17 lead in the 3rd quarter.

This is one of the reason I love college football! Wonderful play, sometimes unexpected. I love seeing FL State's weak side exploited. The day is coming when Duke's going to be the spoiler.

And then we have Carolina in a come from behind win over Louisville. Bless their hearts! Whoopeeeeee do!

[jimsumner]

This is one of the reason I love college football! Wonderful play, sometimes unexpected. I love seeing FL State's weak side exploited. The day is coming when Duke's going to be the spoiler.

And then we have Carolina in a come from behind win over Louisville. Bless their hearts! Whoopeeeeee do!

The same Louisville team that lost at home to the same FIU team that lost at home to Duke.

Yes, I know all about the transitive property and sports. Still . . .

[Bob Green]

Wake Forest 32, Florida State 17. It is starting to look like the Seminoles will arrive at Wallace Wade Stadium with a 2-3 record riding a three game losing streak.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

The same Louisville team that lost at home to the same FIU team that lost at home to Duke.

Yes, I know all about the transitive property and sports. Still . . .

It's all part of the exciting and unpredictable outcomes. A big week coming up in Durham....

[Bob Green]

Final score: Wake Forest 35, Florida State 30.

Next week's game will feature two teams riding three game streaks. Duke has won three in a row, while Florida State has lost three in a row.

[Devil in the Blue Dress]

Final score: Wake Forest 35, Florida State 30.

Next week's game will feature two teams riding three game streaks. Duke has won three in a row, while Florida State has lost three in a row.

I expect Florida State to do whatever they can to shake off the terrible feeling of losing. It's an emotion they aren't familiar with, a very uncomfortable feeling. It doesn't fit the program's self perception of being invincible.

Duke, on the other hand, is working to develop the attitude and expectation of winning.... there's more pressure on Florida State at this point. I expect to see a determined Duke team come out of the tunnel.

What a great game to look forward to!

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Final score: Wake Forest 35, Florida State 30.

Next week's game will feature two teams riding three game streaks. Duke has won three in a row, while Florida State has lost three in a row.

Did somebody say ... S T R E A K! I'm always up for a good streak! May the streaks continue several more weeks!!!