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  1. #1
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    Preseason Rankings

    The AP poll has not yet been released, but the coaches' poll was released today, with Duke clocking in at #6 in the nation:

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

    The top five were UNC, UK, OSU, UConn, and Syracuse. Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high. But looking at the teams ranked after us, it is hard to find any (at this point) who clearly deserve to be ranked higher, so I think #6 is about right for us.
    Last edited by El_Diablo; 10-20-2011 at 01:04 PM.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    The AP poll has not yet been released, but the coaches' poll was released today, with Duke clocking in at #6 in the nation:

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

    The top five were UNC, UK, OSU, UConn, and Syracuse. Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high. But looking at the teams ranked after us, it is hard to find any (at this point) who clearly deserve to be ranked higher, so I think #6 is about right for us.
    How good is Florida likely to be this year? Chad Ford has Brad Beal as #4 on the draft board right now. If he plays up to that potential, they have some other nice pieces in Boynton and Murphy and could make some noise.

  3. #3
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    Only 2 ACC teams in and only 2 others getting votes...bleah.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  4. #4
    Maui field...

    #6 Duke
    #9 Memphis
    #13 Kansas
    #18 Michigan
    #20 UCLA

    Stacked! Definitely a good early season test in addition to @OSU.

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high.
    It only seems high if you look at what we lost, which I don't think is the best way to look at it. Frankly, if you look at it that way, why is Kentucky #2? They lost their entire rotation except for two guys.

    If you look at what we have, I agree with you that #6 is about right for us. If I were ranking I'd put us at #5, but it's hard to quibble with one spot in a pre-season poll.

  6. #6
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    I was surprised to see Kansas so high. With 3 freshman only partially qualifying, they have absolutely no depth. Considering all they lost without replacements, 13 seems high.

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    I was surprised to see Kansas so high. With 3 freshman only partially qualifying, they have absolutely no depth. Considering all they lost without replacements, 13 seems high.
    Agreed. Kansas easily jumped out at me as the most overrated team.

    On the other side, I think Baylor is going to be awesome, and would put them around #5. I also wouldn't be shocked to see Memphis win Maui and hang around the top five for most of the year.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    It only seems high if you look at what we lost, which I don't think is the best way to look at it. Frankly, if you look at it that way, why is Kentucky #2? They lost their entire rotation except for two guys.

    If you look at what we have, I agree with you that #6 is about right for us. If I were ranking I'd put us at #5, but it's hard to quibble with one spot in a pre-season poll.
    Yes, clearly the returning players are what matters here. I am not really surprised at where we are ranked...perhaps I should have said it's somewhat amazing that a team--any team--could successfully reload after losing players who had garnered those types of varied individual honors and accomplishments. I mean, taking a step back and thinking about it for a minute, it's amazing that a program can take that kind of hit and have the depth and incoming talent to be poised to challenge for a national title.

    The same goes for Kentucky, although necessarily not to the same degree, because they still return three starters from a Final Four team: Jones, Miller, and Lamb are back and were three of their top four players last year.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    The same goes for Kentucky, although necessarily not to the same degree, because they still return three starters from a Final Four team: Jones, Miller, and Lamb are back and were three of their top four players last year.
    Well, since they had three guys go in the NBA draft and Lamb didn't even start, we could quibble about whether they return three of their best four guys. But your basic point still rings true.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    The AP poll has not yet been released, but the coaches' poll was released today, with Duke clocking in at #6 in the nation:

    http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

    The top five were UNC, UK, OSU, UConn, and Syracuse. Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high. But looking at the teams ranked after us, it is hard to find any (at this point) who clearly deserve to be ranked higher, so I think #6 is about right for us.
    Since I now fold Syracuse into the ACC, that gives us 3 of the top 6, which is pretty sweet.

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I think Baylor is going to be awesome...
    What jumps out at me is how way, way long Baylor is. Their inside [4/5] options include P. Jones III [6'11" and lottery?], A. Jones [6'10" Sr], J'M Morgan [6'11" Sr]. Not to mention 3/4 guys, Q Acy [6'7" Sr, remember him?] and Q Miller [6'9" Fr, remember him?]. Not to mention D Bello [he of the 56" vertical, or something].

    I would be delighted to see Baylor in UNC's bracket come Madness.

    Wouldn't mind seeing UCLA tangle with the Heels, either. Pretty long, too, the Bruins: revenge-minded Wears [assuming they're actually mean enough], R Nelson [definitely mean enough], J Smith [a load, at times].

    I'm inclined to nudge Baylor into pre-top-10, and UCLA much closer to top-10 than its 20 slot. Too bad these teams can't steal one of those Fla guards, of whom there are so many.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Since I now fold Syracuse into the ACC, that gives us 3 of the top 6, which is pretty sweet.
    I'm not gonna do that until Boeheim suffers a conference tourney outside of MSG.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by El_Diablo View Post
    Considering that we just lost three players who were the 2010 NCAA Tournament MOP, 2011 ACC Player of the Year, and the #1 pick in the NBA draft, #6 seems pretty high.
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    If you look at what we have, I agree with you that #6 is about right for us.
    I agree with Kedsy that we should be looking at what we have; however, there are some questions re what we have. Specifically:

    1. Who are our big time scorers? Not a single player on the current roster has previously averaged double-digits scoring. Curry did it at Liberty but that doesn't count in my book. Both Curry and Dawkins must be double digit scorers this season.
    2. Do we have an ACC quality point guard? With the exception of last year with Kyrie Irving, this has been a year in year out discussion point since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004. Yes, Jon Scheyer was awesome, but there is not a Jon Scheyer on this year's roster. Can Seth Curry make the transition?
    3. Can the Plumlee brothers be a consistent force inside? I've stated it before and I'll state it again, we need Miles and Mason to solve the little issues, which are preventing them from being consistent players: dumb fouls, poor free throw shooting and being weak with the ball in the low post. I'm confident Ryan Kelly will be solid, but we need the Brothers Plumlee to be right beside him playing consistent basketball night in and night out.
    4. How good are our freshmen? Austin Rivers may be a superstar or he might be average. There are no guarantees. Quinn Cook could solve our point guard concerns, but is he really healthy? And is he ready? Moreover, can he defend? Alex Murphy is a guy I expect to challenge to play a lot of minutes on the wing, once he adapts to the speed of the game. How long will that take? If you subtract the five freshmen, this team has no depth; therefore, more than one freshman will be required to step-up and be a solid contributor.

    I'm simultaneously excited and nervous as the season rapidly approaches. There are lots of questions heading into the season and I intend to enjoy watching the team answer those questions.
    Bob Green

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I agree with Kedsy that we should be looking at what we have; however, there are some questions re what we have. Specifically:

    1. Who are our big time scorers? Not a single player on the current roster has previously averaged double-digits scoring. Curry did it at Liberty but that doesn't count in my book. Both Curry and Dawkins must be double digit scorers this season.
    I think the lack of this point is almost exclusively due to the fact that we had 3 of the most prolific scoring guards in the country over the past 2 years (s,s and s). I have no doubt that seth would be capable of putting up 16+ a game if he weren't waiting in the shadows. That's just a personal opinion, and one might not agree, but seeing seth curry let loose this year is one of the things I'm most excited about this season.
    2. Do we have an ACC quality point guard? With the exception of last year with Kyrie Irving, this has been a year in year out discussion point since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004. Yes, Jon Scheyer was awesome, but there is not a Jon Scheyer on this year's roster. Can Seth Curry make the transition?
    just ask the one guy on here, he keeps claiming austin rivers is hands down the best guard in the country!
    While his potential is exciting, this is probably also my biggest worry for this year. I am hopeful though, as seth spent all year 2 years ago watching how jon did things, and likely spent a lot of time last year learning from kyrie. I think he will be prepared. he might not have gaudy assist to TO numbers, but he's gonna score, and i think the triple guard threat combined with the apparent emergence of kelly will open up the floor enough that curry will do just fine
    3. Can the Plumlee brothers be a consistent force inside? I've stated it before and I'll state it again, we need Miles and Mason to solve the little issues, which are preventing them from being consistent players: dumb fouls, poor free throw shooting and being weak with the ball in the low post. I'm confident Ryan Kelly will be solid, but we need the Brothers Plumlee to be right beside him playing consistent basketball night in and night out.
    miles' foul totals in the scrimmage were not promising. It will certainly help that this year we seem to have 5 guys (at least) that we can play at those 2 positions...honestly, I'd just be happy if the 2 plumlees hold their own on defense, not hedging on the double team and giving up the easy points. Any offense we get out of them is great. I expect them to be very good rebounders
    4. How good are our freshmen? Austin Rivers may be a superstar or he might be average. There are no guarantees. Quinn Cook could solve our point guard concerns, but is he really healthy? And is he ready? Moreover, can he defend? Alex Murphy is a guy I expect to challenge to play a lot of minutes on the wing, once he adapts to the speed of the game. How long will that take? If you subtract the five freshmen, this team has no depth; therefore, more than one freshman will be required to step-up and be a solid contributor.

    I'm simultaneously excited and nervous as the season rapidly approaches. There are lots of questions heading into the season and I intend to enjoy watching the team answer those questions.
    I think its silly to take away the freshmen, well, austin at least, seeing as there is no chance he doesn't play. so taking him with the upper classmen, we effectively have 4 big guys and 4 guards. This is the same distribution that we had when we won the national title 2 years ago, and seeing as coach generally settles into an 8 man (or so) rotation, i would hardly be worried about our depth
    1200. DDMF.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    I think its silly to take away the freshmen, well, austin at least, seeing as there is no chance he doesn't play. so taking him with the upper classmen, we effectively have 4 big guys and 4 guards. This is the same distribution that we had when we won the national title 2 years ago, and seeing as coach generally settles into an 8 man (or so) rotation, i would hardly be worried about our depth
    I have to disagree and question your math. Upper classmen are juniors and seniors, so Austin Rivers plus the upper classmen equals 3 big guys and 3 guards. Six players equals a team with serious depth concerns. I believe sophomore Tyler Thornton will see significant action so that takes the rotation to seven, which is the same as 2007 (wow that's a scary thought).

    So I'll reiterate my original point, more than one freshman will need to step-up and be a solid contributor.
    Bob Green

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I have to disagree and question your math. Upper classmen are juniors and seniors, so Austin Rivers plus the upper classmen equals 3 big guys and 3 guards. Six players equals a team with serious depth concerns. I believe sophomore Tyler Thornton will see significant action so that takes the rotation to seven, which is the same as 2007 (wow that's a scary thought).

    So I'll reiterate my original point, more than one freshman will need to step-up and be a solid contributor.
    While we disagree on the technical meaning of upperclassmen, that's not really the point

    Perhaps you are ignoring Josh, but with austin and no other freshmen, we have 4 guards and 4 bigs....same as our typical rotation in 2010. Now I think its silly to think that one can judge the quality of a team based on the number of people which they can use in their rotation, but I staunchly disagree that we need any freshman other than austin to step up to be successful.

    I mean its very subjective what one considers as "needs to be successful" so it makes sense that two people can disagree, and since its all speculative, and in the end we will probably see contributions from some of the other freshmen, so it will effectively be irrelevant.
    1200. DDMF.

  17. #17
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    So I'll reiterate my original point, more than one freshman will need to step-up and be a solid contributor.
    Or more than one sophomore. If Josh and Tyler both step up we'd have an 8-man rotation without any freshmen other than Austin.

    Putting that aside, by the end of the season, most Duke teams have only gone seven deep. The difference between 2007 and most Duke teams (including this one) is the 2007 seven man rotation included three frosh and three sophs (and no seniors). A rotation of one senior, four juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman (which is what we'd have in your example) would not resemble 2007 in any meaningful way.

    I expect two, maybe three freshmen to be playing rotation minutes by the end of the season (Austin, Alex, maybe Quinn). But if it's just Austin plus Tyler steps up, I believe we'll still be OK. More than OK, I expect a rotation of Austin/Seth/Andre/Miles/Mason/Ryan/Tyler would be a Final Four contender.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I agree with Kedsy that we should be looking at what we have; however, there are some questions re what we have. Specifically:

    1. Who are our big time scorers? Not a single player on the current roster has previously averaged double-digits scoring. Curry did it at Liberty but that doesn't count in my book. Both Curry and Dawkins must be double digit scorers this season.
    By distributing the shots that Kyle and Nolan put up last year, Curry at a minimum, and likely Dawkins as well will be double digit scorers. I expect Austin will be too but I worry a bit about his efficiency. Kelly certainly looks to fill that role as well. Either of the Plumlees may surprise with Miles being the most promising. I'm not too worried about our ability to score points though efficiency will suffer early in the season.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    2. Do we have an ACC quality point guard? With the exception of last year with Kyrie Irving, this has been a year in year out discussion point since Chris Duhon graduated in 2004. Yes, Jon Scheyer was awesome, but there is not a Jon Scheyer on this year's roster. Can Seth Curry make the transition?
    This is the big question for the season. I have very high hopes for Seth but I try to temper that with a realistic look at the position. Point is the most challenging position on the court and especially so at Duke. Seth has a very high basketball IQ; can he convert that and his physical tools to the point and be effective?

    A second question about the point guard position is whether the dynamics surrounding Austin breakdown the position from within the team. Austin is used to running the show but in HS, not at an NCAA elite level. Will he fill his role or try to do too much?

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    3. Can the Plumlee brothers be a consistent force inside? I've stated it before and I'll state it again, we need Miles and Mason to solve the little issues, which are preventing them from being consistent players: dumb fouls, poor free throw shooting and being weak with the ball in the low post. I'm confident Ryan Kelly will be solid, but we need the Brothers Plumlee to be right beside him playing consistent basketball night in and night out.
    Miles already is showing signs of having turned the corner. I still remember the 2010 season after Zoubs fouled out in the Baylor game that was just recounted in the Player Profile for Miles and last year I jokingly referred to the “Zoubek Effect” which roughly translates to a maligned player who, statistically (plus/minus), is actually much more valuable than he appears. Defensively, he’s the best big on the team and has learned to play defense without leaving the ground. Miles does not worry me.

    Mason, on the other hand, perplexes me (and, I’m sure, the coaching staff.) He has an incredibly high ceiling provided he’s willing to accept that he is a big man, not a guard. He’s already a pretty dominating rebounder but needs to gamble less on defense and develop some semblance of an offensive game that does not include wide open dunks.

    Mason, in conjunction with Ryan, provides us with above average passers in the posts positions. That may end up being a very interesting if irregular part of the offensive game this year.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    4. How good are our freshmen? Austin Rivers may be a superstar or he might be average. There are no guarantees. Quinn Cook could solve our point guard concerns, but is he really healthy? And is he ready? Moreover, can he defend? Alex Murphy is a guy I expect to challenge to play a lot of minutes on the wing, once he adapts to the speed of the game. How long will that take? If you subtract the five freshmen, this team has no depth; therefore, more than one freshman will be required to step-up and be a solid contributor.
    And this is why I so like seniors. One or two will surprise, one or two will disappoint and the same person could fulfill both sides probably within minutes at some point this season. By the end of the season, Austin will be a known quantity – I think it will take him half the year to get the feel for the college game and the feel of having a very capable team around him. Does Alex step up? I certainly hope so. Quin too, if healthy, would be a very valuable addition to the rotation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    I'm simultaneously excited and nervous as the season rapidly approaches. There are lots of questions heading into the season and I intend to enjoy watching the team answer those questions.
    Ditto, from the hinterlands.
    And I’ll add:
    5. How well can this team defend? It has the length and quickness at multiple positions to be really good but only if everybody buys into the concept. I think the interior will be solid with the Plumlees and Ryan. I think Seth has already demonstrated his ability at disrupting the other team with fast hands and good anticipation. So, who guards the wings? This isn’t Austin’s strong suit and Andre will be playing undersized on a regular basis though I thought he did well more often than he was credited for during the year.
    Last edited by Ultrarunner; 10-21-2011 at 12:02 AM. Reason: grammar

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    ...but I staunchly disagree that we need any freshman other than austin to step up to be successful.
    Yeah, we can agree to disagree as time will tell. As far as Josh Hairston goes, I'm not ignoring him, I just can't figure out how he fits into the rotation. I sincerely hope he proves me wrong!
    Bob Green

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Putting that aside, by the end of the season, most Duke teams have only gone seven deep. The difference between 2007 and most Duke teams (including this one) is the 2007 seven man rotation included three frosh and three sophs (and no seniors). A rotation of one senior, four juniors, one sophomore, and one freshman (which is what we'd have in your example) would not resemble 2007 in any meaningful way.
    I cannot disagree. Your points are solid. It's just this little itch I can't quite scratch that keeps telling me to maintain an even keel as the season approaches.
    Bob Green

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