ACC Schedule Released

[pfrduke]

Whet your appetite below:

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb...082411aaa.html

[Bluedog]

Thanks! Very good non-conference slate with MSU, Memphis/UMich, UCLA/KU/Gtown, Ohio St, Wash, Temple, St. John's. Even Penn and Belmont should be NCAA tournament type teams (although I guess Harvard is supposed to dominate the Ivy League this year). Is ACCN (ACC Network TV) covered by espn3.com? Raycom was last year...

[msdukie]

Is ACCN (ACC Network TV) covered by espn3.com? Raycom was last year...

ACC Network games should be streamed on ESPN3 as they are produced by Raycom as a sublicensee of ESPN. Keep in mind that there are two versions of ACC Network now, as is also true in football. ACC Network is a nationally syndicated game, in other words, the game is sold all over the country over the air or on cable on a market by market basis (think of it as old Raycom sold nationwide). The other ACC Network, referred to as the ACC Regional Network or, alternatively RSN, on the schedules is not the old Fox product, but it is another set of Raycom produced games that will appear only in the ACC footprint on the Regional Sports Networks of the past on cable. (Duke has NO regional network games, unless the TBD TV game ends up being RSN).

Also note that there are no more ESPN blackouts, in additional to all ACC Network games having national capability. That means no ESPN blackouts for Duke-Carolina I or the ACC Tournament and you might be able to watch both on the ACC Network in Hawaii or Alaska.

[Olympic Fan]

How you rank the various ACC schedules pretty much depends on how you rank the ACC ... we can guess, but until it plays out, there's no way to know for such. Two years ago, everybody that had to play UNC twice thought that was a tough assignment, then they turned out to be one of the worst teams in the league. Things like that can happen.

As for Duke's 16-game ACC schedule, I THINK it lines up very good for the Devils:

-- I see the four teams that are clearcut bottom feeders -- Maryland, Georgia Tech, Wake and Boston College. Duke has six games against these teams ... but it's better than that because four of Duke's eight road games are against the four worst teams in the league. Duke plays Maryland and Wake home and away ... they get Georgia Tech and BC only away.

-- The biggest negative about the schedule is four games against the other two top teams in the league. Duke plays both UNC and FSU home and away. I know UNC is the ACC preseason favorite (and I think they deserve that ranking), but I also think UNC, Duke and FSU are the clearcut top three teams in the league. Miami might have pushed that trio, but with the offseason problems (injuries to Johnson and Gamble, the possible NCAA probe into Jones) they've dropped off.

-- Duke's three "home only" teams are Virginia, Miami and NC State ... and all three are among the stronger mid-level teams. The fact that Duke doesn't have to go to any of these teams' homecourts is a plus.

Overall, I think Duke starts with a base of 7 home wins (Duke has won at least 7 ACC home games in nine of the last 10 years) and four road wins (at Georgia Tech, at BC, at Wake and at Maryland).

That's 11 ACC wins.

I could see adding wins at Clemson and Virginia Tech -- two midlevel teams, but neither as talented as they were last year.

To go beyond that, I could see going 8-0 at home ... that would leave games at FSU and at UNC that look very tough.

Like I say, a favorable ACC schedule ... I'm going to guess 13-3 in the ACC (I'm guessing the 11 base wins I noted, plus two out of the remaining fine -- UNC in Cameron, at Clemson, at Va tech, at FSU and at UNC).

The non-conference schedule is tougher than normal -- at Ohio State will be very tough; there's a good chance to lose a game in Maui; and it wouldn't be a shock if Duke lost to either Michigan State or Washington in Madison Square Garden. I'll be stunned if Duke can't handle a freshman-dominated St. John's team in Cameron.

[gumbomoop]

Excellent work by ACCBBallFan in multiple posts this thread.

That I dissent from ACCBBF's most important point - that Duke has a tougher unbalanced mess than UNC - in no way dims my appreciation for all the work.

My strongest disagreement is with ACCBBallFan's weighting system in post #12. As ACCBBF notes, BC is weighted too high, UVa too low, and I think NCSt too low, as well. Although I think ACCBBF's weighting system in post #14 is much more reasonable than that found in post #12, it still doesn't quite jibe with my own "predictions" re the toughest, weakest, middling teams for 2011-12. I had posted versions of this on the 2011-12 MBB Schedule Speculation thread, and repeat it here, with significant modification. I focus only on Duke and UNC.

Duke in '11-'12
primary partners (H & A) - UNC, Md
rotating H & A partners - Wake, FSU, VT
rotating H only partners - NCS, UVa, Miami
rotating A only partners - GaT, BC, Clemson

UNC in '11-'12
primary partners (H & A) - Duke, NCS
rotating H & A partners - Md, UVa, Miami
rotating H only partners - GaT, BC, Clemson
rotating A only partners - Wake, FSU, VT

(a.) Duke has Miami only H, while UNC has both H/A. I had thought this might be a + for Duke. Reggie's injury, and now Gamble's, perhaps changes that, but Reggie should be back by Feb 15 game v. Heels in Miami.
(b.) I wonder whether NCS will be significantly improved; if so, again, we get them only H, while UNC gets their "permanent partner" both H/A. Maybe a + for Duke.
(c.) I'm guessing UVa will definitely be better next year; thus, probably a + for Duke.
(d.) Once every 3 years, both Duke and UNC play Md H/A. So if one thinks Md gets up for UNC almost as much as for Duke, then at least next season it's "balanced" on this point. Both Duke and UNC should win 2 v. the Terps next year.
(e.) Now Duke does have to play FSU twice, but at least UNC gets them A rather than H. Ditto for VaT: Duke plays them twice, but at least UNC gets them A.
(f.) Duke gets Wake twice, UNC only once, A. That seems a + for Duke.
(g.) Clemson - definite + for UNC, as Duke has to visit Littlejohn.
(h.) UNC gets likely bottom feeders BC and GT at H only, surely 2 easy wins, a + for UNC. Still, though Duke gets neither of these presumably weak teams at home, if the Devils can't beat a frosh-dominated BC and a no-depth-whatsoever GT on the road, then the Devils cannot challenge UNC for reg season #1.

The unbalanced mess counts, almost surely advantaging some teams, disadvantaging others, just given the luck of the draw in any particular year. While UNC should rightly be thought the favorite to win the ACC reg season, Duke should rightly be thought a - and the only - legitimate challenger to the Heels. FSU may well have a shot to challenge Duke for #2, but they are not a solid challenger for #1. In short, it's either (1) UNC, (1a) Duke; or it's (1) UNC, (2) Duke, (2a) FSU.

Give UNC 7 home wins plus near-certain road wins at Wake and Md. They have to beat Duke in DDome, and then 6 maybe-challenging road games: FSU, VT, UVa, Miami [Reggie should be back well before Feb. 15], NCSt [a stretch to call this a challenge?], Duke. Give Duke 7 home wins. Devils have 4 must-win-relatively-easy road games [GaT, Md, BC, Wake], and 5 toughies: home to Heels, plus on road at Clemson, VT, UNC, FSU.

By my intuitive accounting, that gives Heels 9 near-sure wins, and maybe as many as 7 toughies. I give Duke 11 near-sure [or damn-well-better] wins, and 5 definite toughies. I don't know that either of ACCBBF's weighted systems "weights" for the specifics of home-away details, as both seem to weight only the number of games [1 or 2] v. any opponent, strong or weak. IMO, the home-away stuff is a significant determinant of who has tougher unbalanced mess.

I'm guessing UNC visits CIS on March 3 with a 13-2 or 14-1 record. I'm guessing Duke is 13-2 or 12-3. March 3 is unimportant [Ha!] only if Heels are 14-1, Devils 12-3. Otherwise [Ha!] could be tense.

Edit: I see that while I was composing my magnum opus, Olympic Fan posted a fine analysis. A careful reader will see that the arguments in OF's post just above and mine right here are pretty similar. I can assure troubled readers that OF and I are not the same person. Further, I can say that both OF and I are pleased that we are not the same person. I'm pretty sure OF is particularly pleased.

[ACCBBallFan]

I agree with both of your comments, and you are right that I did not factor in Home versus Away.

I will just reiterate what I posted on THR

Heels are rated #1 and only thing that could unseat UNC is if somebody with a remote chance of challenging got an overwhelming easy unbalanced schedule as was the case for UVA a couple years ago when there was a 4 way tie for first IIRC.

Most likely challenger is Duke and their schedule is no easier than UNC's.

The next three, FSU, UVA and VA Tech all have a tougher unbalanced ACC schedule than Duke or UNC.

So I would expect UNC @1 and Duke @ 2 to carry seed.

Clemson and Miami have an average ACC SOS, so not likely to overtake FSU or VA Tech, possibly UVA who has the second toughest schedule after MD who is doomed to finish 11th since BC is so depleted even a relatively easy schedule cannot help them out of the ACC basement.

When UNC wins the ACC it won't be because of a favorable schedule but rather the returning talent now being a year more experienced.

[ACCBBallFan]

I stiil have not factored in Home/Away, but re-did the analysis based on the second weighting and again concluded that the best teams have the toughest unbalanced schedule and vice-versa (not sure if that is by design or accident but seems odd counter-intuitive since they do not have to play themselves, one would think the strongest teams have an automatic schedule advantage)

The analysis was manual and could very well have some errors, beyond the weights assumption.

FSU ranked third has the toughest schedule, which makes sense since they only play the 5 worst teams once: NC St, GA T, Wake, MD and BC.
Since UVA and VA Tech only play the 6th worst team Miami once, they each play 5 of the 6 worst teams only once.
Duke plays 5 of the 7 worst teams only once.

Conversely GA Tech only plays each of the 5 best teams once.
For BC, they only play VA Tech twice and none of the other top 6 twice.
Same for St but the3ir 1 of top 6 they play twice is UNC.
Wake only plays two of the top 7 twice Duke and Clemson.

27 - FSU(3)
30 - UVA(4)
32 - VA Tech(5)
32 - Duke (2)
33 - UNC (1)
34 - MD(11)

37 - Clemson (6)

42 - Miami(7)
47 - Wake(10)
47 - NC St(8)

51 - BC(12)

56 - GA Tech(9)

The order is the same when I group by quadrants.

Of course the other way to look at this is tougher schedule means you can take care of busines yourself rather than relying on others to knock off the team you are chasing.


11 - FSU(3)
12 - UVA(4)
12 - VA Tech(5)

13 - Duke (2)
14 - UNC (1)
14 - MD(11)
14 - Clemson (6)

16 - Miami(7)
17 - Wake(10)

18 - NC St(8)
19 - BC(12)
20 - GA Tech(9)

As I get time I will try to factor in Home/Away.

[toooskies]

All of the comments imply that the difficulty of teams follow a linear distribution, whereas history would show that difficulty is more likely to follow a bell-curve.

[ACCBBallFan]

I tried some Home/Away analysis and also factored in gumbomoop's opinion that NC State is perhaps a little better than I had given them credit for being.

I used quadrants but tried to factor in that UNC is faovrite over Duke and FSU in 1st quadrant, and BC ever so bad

UNC heavy favorite

Duke and FSU treated evenly before SOS impact

UVA, VA T and NC St treated evenly before SOS

Clemson, Miami and GA Tech treated evenly before SOS

Wake, MD treated evenly before SOS

BC light weight this year

The assumption is that home teams always carry serve except when playing a team 2 or more "quadrants" lower

Top 6 teams only losses are on the road:

13-3 UNC with losses @ Duke, @FSU and @UVA or @ VA Tech depending on who you consider the #4 rated team

13-3 Duke with losses @UNC, @ FSU and @ VA Tech

12-4 FSU with losses @ Duke, @ UVA, @ VA Tech and @ NC St or @ Clemson depending on who you consider the #6 rated team

So top 3 remain top 3 after considering SOS. If Duke were to split with UNC an dUNC loses to boteh VA teams on road, perhaps an outright first place rater than a tie.

10-6 VA Tech losses @ UNC, @ Duke, @ FSU, @ UVA, @ Clemson and @ Miami

9-7 UVA losses @ UNC, @ Duke, @ FSU, @ NC St, @ Clemson and @ GA T

9-7 NC St losses @ UNC (2), @ Duke, @ VA T, @ Clemson, @ Miami and @ GA T and beats FSU and UVA at home

So no change in gumbomoop's second tier after Considering SOS

7-9 Clemson loses to FSU and Duke at home but wins @ BC

7-9 Miami loses to FSU and UNC at home but sweeps BC

7-9 GA Tech loses to Duke at home and does not win a road game as is their norm

No changes due to SOS in any quadrant other than order of teams

4-12 MD with wins at home vs. BC, Wake, Maimi and GA Tech

3-13 Wake with wins at home vs. BC, GA Tech and Clemson

2-14 BC with wins at home vs. Wake and one of [GA Tech, Miami and Clemson]. I doubt it but could finish as high as 4-12 with Clemson and/or Miami being 6-10 rather than 7-9.

[hurleyfor3]

Anyone know the backstory on the Colorado State game? I doubt we'd play in Fort Collins, but could there be a return visit to Denver? No one on the team comes from the Mountain time zone.

[gumbomoop]

As a matter of fact, I did do quite a bit of analysis.

UNC 3 loses are to Duke and FSU and one of Miami/UVA/VA Tech on road

Duke 4 loses are to UNC, FSU, VA Tech and Clemson on road. At the time I had Clemson in second quadrant and Miami who Duke plays only at home in third quadrant. So maybe only 3 losses

If FSU beats UNC at home, FSU 5 losses are to Duke, Miami, UVA, VA Tech and NC St on road.

I have imported a tag quote from ACCBBF's post over on the Rodney Purvis thread, as several of the recent posts over there morphed from Purvis to NC State's 2011-12 hopes, and thence to predictions more generally as to which teams will finish where this season.

I, and I am certain many other posters, can attest to ACCBBF's consistently informative analysis. Always much appreciated, even when I nitpick at this point or that.

This time, no nitpick, just a comment or 2 on the ACC consensus top 3. All is, of course, speculation/prediction in preseason; but I'm with ACCBBF's speculations here. Now, it would be one thing to predict that UNC would lose either 0 or 1 game, while predicting, say, 3-5 losses to Duke. Similarly, one might predict an equal number of losses for Duke and FSU. But ACCBBF doesn't - nor do I - predict those numbers. Rather, the "logic" of ACCBBF's prediction, with which I agree [and, come to think of it, with which I hope ACCBBF agrees!!], is that:

(a) Duke is the only team that is likely to challenge UNC for #1....
(b) because, even though Heels have more talent, they probably have neither more experience nor more depth....
(c) and because Heels have slightly more difficult road schedule.
(d) FSU may challenge Duke for #2, but not UNC for #1. No other team is likely to challenge for #2.
(e) There is sufficient reason to hope, and even expect, that the regular-season finale in CIS will determine the ACCT #1 seed. That third overtime should be tense.

[gumbomoop]

FYI - Dana O'Neil of ESPN breaks down ACC OOC schedule strengths. She says Duke's is toughest, followed by Heels and Pack, also tough.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...e-analysis-acc

[uh_no]

FYI - Dana O'Neil of ESPN breaks down ACC OOC schedule strengths. She says Duke's is toughest, followed by Heels and Pack, also tough.

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...e-analysis-acc

Id certainly hope so with the champions classic, Maui, and the B10 challenge

[ACCBBallFan]

I have imported a tag quote from ACCBBF's post over on the Rodney Purvis thread, as several of the recent posts over there morphed from Purvis to NC State's 2011-12 hopes, and thence to predictions more generally as to which teams will finish where this season.

I, and I am certain many other posters, can attest to ACCBBF's consistently informative analysis. Always much appreciated, even when I nitpick at this point or that.

This time, no nitpick, just a comment or 2 on the ACC consensus top 3. All is, of course, speculation/prediction in preseason; but I'm with ACCBBF's speculations here. Now, it would be one thing to predict that UNC would lose either 0 or 1 game, while predicting, say, 3-5 losses to Duke. Similarly, one might predict an equal number of losses for Duke and FSU. But ACCBBF doesn't - nor do I - predict those numbers. Rather, the "logic" of ACCBBF's prediction, with which I agree [and, come to think of it, with which I hope ACCBBF agrees!!], is that:

(a) Duke is the only team that is likely to challenge UNC for #1....
(b) because, even though Heels have more talent, they probably have neither more experience nor more depth....
(c) and because Heels have slightly more difficult road schedule.
(d) FSU may challenge Duke for #2, but not UNC for #1. No other team is likely to challenge for #2.
(e) There is sufficient reason to hope, and even expect, that the regular-season finale in CIS will determine the ACCT #1 seed. That third overtime should be tense.

Thanks.

Yes I would agree with all five of points (a) thru (e) and appreciate the props.

The one I might quibble with only slightly or rather elaborate on is that FSU cannot also challenge UNC and Duke for #1.

I agree that they would not all be 33% likely, I guess if I had to fit it to odds it woud be UNC 35-45 / Duke 30-35 / FSU 20-30.

If FSU can get some PG play out of the grad student Jeff Peterson from Arkansas to replace Derwin Kitchen, they have an awful lot of seniors and juniors plus 2 grad students, more like the profile of mid majors when they are senior laden. So yes the planets have to really align for FSU to surpass UNC while Duke is within striking distance of both UNC and FSU in ipposite directions

as you allude though people tend to think od Duke as a young team with only 1 senior and having lost Singer and Smith, 5 of the 6 key guys are upperclassmen, albeit 4 are juniors.

If FSU is 3 and VA Tech is 6 that's roughly the same degree of difficulty as Miami 4 and UVA 5 such that Duke's home only games are not wasted on GA Tech and BC like UNC's are. Duke should be able to beat those two bottom teams at their place in road only games.

UNC has FSU and VA Tech road only, Miami and UVA Home and Home whereas Duke has FSU and VA Tech Home and Home but ts tough games vs. Maimi and UVA atre both at home as opposed to UNC's two being on the road.

FSU has UNC home only and the next 5 best teams Home and Away and has to realy leverage its seniority and its boring defensive style to carry serve at home and minimize opponents' home court advantages.

UNC is particualrly vulnerable if Kendall Marshall gets into foul trouble but he did a good job of avoiding that last year.

In the other quadrants it's more evenly distributed and you can flip coins or throw darts to separate Miami, UVA, VA Tech, Clemson and possiblly NC State.

[Rich]

Whet your appetite below:

http://www.theacc.com/sports/m-baskb...082411aaa.html

Looking at Duke's schedule, does anyone know when school resumes after the Christmas break? Specifically, is school back in session for the Virginia game on Jan. 12?

[SilkyJ]

Here's full sked from goduke.com

[uh_no]

Looking at Duke's schedule, does anyone know when school resumes after the Christmas break? Specifically, is school back in session for the Virginia game on Jan. 12?

school starts wednesday the 11th..so yes

[SCMatt33]

With the new TV deal, we all need to make sure we know where ESPNU is on the remote. 10 Games over there.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

With the new TV deal, we all need to make sure we know where ESPNU is on the remote. 10 Games over there.

This sucks if you're a biz traveler since so few hotel chains seem to have espnu. Do they tend to simulcast the espnu games on espn3? I can't recall.

[Duvall]

This sucks if you're a biz traveler since so few hotel chains seem to have espnu. Do they tend to simulcast the espnu games on espn3? I can't recall.

Sometimes, but usually not.