The Conference Realignment Vigil- Update: Terps to Big10?

[ChillinDuke]

Preface: I'm playing devil's advocate here. Just trying to emphasize the simplistic way I view this whole realignment process.

As a Duke fan, the most important issue to me is how any of this might impact Duke. The underlying question seems to be which schools would be best for us as conference partners. As I thought about this question, it seemed like the most important characteristics would be (in order of importance): 1) commitment to a very high level of academics, and commitment to a basketball program that can compete for national championships without overly selling its soul to the Devil (TCCFNCWOSISTTD); 2) commitment to a football program TCCFNCWOSISTTD, and commitment to non-revenue sports programs TCCFNCWOSISTTD; and 3) location relatively close to Durham, and a student enrollment size that is similar to Duke.

I thought about the schools that might be most relevant for Duke (those east of the Mississippi that play Div I football -- the ACC, most of the Big 10, most of the SEC, most of the recent Big East, and some noteworthy independents and FCS teams) and it helped solidify a few thoughts for me. Namely,

1) FSU winds up near the bottom of my list of ideal conference partners. All other things being equal (and they are not), Duke should be OK with them leaving as long as it does not lead to other negative consequences (and it very easily could). For what its worth, Clemson was next lowest on my list.

I'm not trying to change your mind, as your list is obviously your own to create. But I would like to point out that this realignment is driven primarily (and substantially so) by football. With Duke being comparatively irrelevant (whether we choose to admit it or not) in this area, FSU is an important piece of the ACC. This would be enough to nudge them up (perhaps considerably) were I to construct a similar list.

2) The ACC is probably the conference with the best set of partners for us right now, but the Big 10 is not far behind (Michigan, Wisconsin, Northwestern, etc. are very desirable partners).

Agreed on both counts.

3) UNC is at the top of the list (face validity here), and thus is the most important partner. Were they to shift conferences, Duke would certainly be wise to consider a shift themselves (to the Big 10; especially if UNC were to go to the Big 10).

Again, the question I ask is not whether Duke would consider a shift in conferences. It's could Duke consider a shift? Again, back to football, who would take them? When this realignment fire caught the wind last summer and flared up in the Big 12, the conventional wisdom seemed to place Kansas and K State as the odd men out due to their middling football programs (historically). Now that the fire is re-flaring, this time in ACC territory, I fear Duke and Wake are relevant to this type of discussion now.

4) Notre Dame winds up second on my list. Duke should be at the front of the bandwagon to see that they join the ACC. However, if they were to join the Big 10, and especially if UNC and/or other desirable partners (e.g., UVA, GTech) were to go with them, Duke might want to look long and hard at a move to that conference.

Notre Dame winds up first on everyone else's list. That's one of the main issues in this. I reiterate: football.

5) If Notre Dame were to become the 15th member of the ACC and the conference were to expand to 16, then my Duke-centric perspective on partners would be (not counting those in major conferences): Georgetown (if they were to upgrade their program and stadium in a big way between now and decision time; probably highly unlikely), Temple, and Rutgers.

Georgetown doesn't have a D-1 football team (I don't believe), thus it doesn't really pay to consider them as a reasonable addition in any realigned conference.

I am not trying to express my preferences or desires, nor do I intend to refute yours. I just like to ground this discussion in reality, and that seems to be football, football, and more football. We can (and undoubtedly will) go back and forth discussing the "weak" people that don't have the "testicular fortitude" to stand up and say "Enough!" to this whole process. And we can discuss our dreams of an ideal league that sits Duke basketball in a glamorous conference with the cream of the crop in the nation, or Duke academics amongst the most renowned institutions in the country, but I would like to ensure that people here are aware that these discussions are not based in reality.

The sky is not falling, and I'm not (yet) nervous about the future of Duke in a power conference. But if this realignment fire decides to flare up again in the ACC, the only deciding discussion that the powers that be will have unfortunately won't be about basketball, academics, driving distance, or anything else we can dream up.

It will be about football.

- Chillin

PS - This whole realignment process has a documentary on it. It airs on HBO at 9pm eastern on Sunday nights. (I am half kidding...but the parallels can be made.)

[A-Tex Devil]

Also, the three schools mentioned the most in this latest round of realignment (FSU, Clemson, GT) all have a fierce in-state rivalry with an SEC school, which could break the bank on their next TV deal (or network). You think FSU can't keep up with Florida now?

Great point, TexHawk. This drives it as much as anything. The rest of the ACC doesn't have to deal with this dynamic. Take its importance for what you will, but to these schools, keeping up with their cross-state ACC rivals is MASSIVELY important, probably most at Clemson where they are used to being historically stronger, and that's not the case anymore.

[lotusland]

Great point, TexHawk. This drives it as much as anything. The rest of the ACC doesn't have to deal with this dynamic. Take its importance for what you will, but to these schools, keeping up with their cross-state ACC rivals is MASSIVELY important, probably most at Clemson where they are used to being historically stronger, and that's not the case anymore.

Yeah the Clemson folks I know do not want to leave the ACC and have no affinity for the Big 12 but they cannot stand the idea that they will be left on the outside looking in at S. Carolina in SEC. It's not like the FSU paranoia about the NC schools being in control of everything. From a rivalry standpoint it would be great to have those 2 schools in the same conference but using the football dollars model it makes no sense for the SEC to add Clemson or the ACC to add USC.

[Nepos]

Preface: I'm playing devil's advocate here. Just trying to emphasize the simplistic way I view this whole realignment process.



I'm not trying to change your mind, as your list is obviously your own to create. But I would like to point out that this realignment is driven primarily (and substantially so) by football. With Duke being comparatively irrelevant (whether we choose to admit it or not) in this area, FSU is an important piece of the ACC. This would be enough to nudge them up (perhaps considerably) were I to construct a similar list.



Agreed on both counts.



Again, the question I ask is not whether Duke would consider a shift in conferences. It's could Duke consider a shift? Again, back to football, who would take them? When this realignment fire caught the wind last summer and flared up in the Big 12, the conventional wisdom seemed to place Kansas and K State as the odd men out due to their middling football programs (historically). Now that the fire is re-flaring, this time in ACC territory, I fear Duke and Wake are relevant to this type of discussion now.



Notre Dame winds up first on everyone else's list. That's one of the main issues in this. I reiterate: football.



Georgetown doesn't have a D-1 football team (I don't believe), thus it doesn't really pay to consider them as a reasonable addition in any realigned conference.

I am not trying to express my preferences or desires, nor do I intend to refute yours. I just like to ground this discussion in reality, and that seems to be football, football, and more football. We can (and undoubtedly will) go back and forth discussing the "weak" people that don't have the "testicular fortitude" to stand up and say "Enough!" to this whole process. And we can discuss our dreams of an ideal league that sits Duke basketball in a glamorous conference with the cream of the crop in the nation, or Duke academics amongst the most renowned institutions in the country, but I would like to ensure that people here are aware that these discussions are not based in reality.

The sky is not falling, and I'm not (yet) nervous about the future of Duke in a power conference. But if this realignment fire decides to flare up again in the ACC, the only deciding discussion that the powers that be will have unfortunately won't be about basketball, academics, driving distance, or anything else we can dream up.

It will be about football.

- Chillin

PS - This whole realignment process has a documentary on it. It airs on HBO at 9pm eastern on Sunday nights. (I am half kidding...but the parallels can be made.)

I am also simple-minded and agree with you that football broadcasting clout is first, second and third on the list of factors that are influencing the outcome of the game of conferences. I also agree that this gives Duke very little direct clout (our clout is really our history in a major conference, our participation in one of the most well-known college sports rivalries, our location in the (roughly) 25th largest tv market, and the other athletic and academic credentials that we can lay on the table -- factors four through 10 on the list). Because of this, we are far less likely to be calling any of the shots than other schools at the very top of my ideal-partner list such as UNC, Notre Dame and Michigan; as well as those that are pretty far down my list such as FSU, Clemson, and Bama. What I was attempting to lay out was a perspective on how a Duke-centric viewer might judge the results of the game.

I also agree that losing FSU would be a blow to the power of the ACC, but I do continue to think that Duke should not care much about this move in the game unless it results in losing other conference partners and/or being less desirable to Notre Dame. The pseudo-analysis that I posted was my thoughts about a Duke-centric perspective, and that is decidedly different than my thoughts on an ACC-centric perspective which would probably be most concerned with maintaining/enhancing the power of the conference. Hopefully we remain in the ACC and the ACC remains relevant at the highest levels of college football, but I suggest those are ultimately less important to Duke than being in a conference that fits our priorities (academics and bball excellence at the top of the list, football and other sports second, location and size third).

[Scorp4me]

Football is the driving force in conference realignment...for now. And if we were trying to figure out who were the last 64 teams left out of the BCS instead of the only 64 to make it in that might stay. But I guarantee with so many teams being left out...the remaining teams will find a way to make their money. You can't be too greedy and that is what is occurring. To be honest right now (and I wouldn't have said this before) I just want it to happen so we can move on. To be honest if the FSU's and the Texas's of the world are the kind of teams that make it in...maybe being left out won't be so bad. No offense to either team or school, they just have different goals.

[Highlander]

Football is the driving force in conference realignment...for now. And if we were trying to figure out who were the last 64 teams left out of the BCS instead of the only 64 to make it in that might stay. But I guarantee with so many teams being left out...the remaining teams will find a way to make their money. You can't be too greedy and that is what is occurring. To be honest right now (and I wouldn't have said this before) I just want it to happen so we can move on. To be honest if the FSU's and the Texas's of the world are the kind of teams that make it in...maybe being left out won't be so bad. No offense to either team or school, they just have different goals.

I think you have a point here. There are a lot more schools not in the PAC 10/Big 10/Big 12/SEC than are in them. The footbal $ may be in those four, but the rest of the schools combined would have a fair amount of weight to throw around. Boise State, Notre Dame, Va Tech, WVU, TCU, etc. aren't going to be happy about being left out. They will lobby for some sort of at large system that gives a playoff to the best team, rather than the one with the most fans. Or they could even start their own playoff and call the bluff of the other schools.

I wish the NCAA could step in and keep this from getting even more out of hand.

[Jarhead]

I think you have a point here. There are a lot more schools not in the PAC 10/Big 10/Big 12/SEC than are in them. The footbal $ may be in those four, but the rest of the schools combined would have a fair amount of weight to throw around. Boise State, Notre Dame, Va Tech, WVU, TCU, etc. aren't going to be happy about being left out. They will lobby for some sort of at large system that gives a playoff to the best team, rather than the one with the most fans. Or they could even start their own playoff and call the bluff of the other schools.

I wish the NCAA could step in and keep this from getting even more out of hand.

Anybody know why the NCAA ia so aloof to this issue? They are well involved in every other collegiate sport's national national playoffs with some notable success. Why don't they just stick their noses in football, and grab some control? It can't hurt, and they may actually solve some football problems. The current structure is a disaster.

[A-Tex Devil]

Anybody know why the NCAA ia so aloof to this issue? They are well involved in every other collegiate sport's national national playoffs with some notable success. Why don't they just stick their noses in football, and grab some control? It can't hurt, and they may actually solve some football problems. The current structure is a disaster.

This has always been a strange dynamic to me. The NCAA can't control the bowl system or force a playoff, but they can require that a league must have 12 teams for a conference championship game or hand down penalties that the schools must abide by re: football. I am sure there is an easy answer, but it has always seemed weird to me how the NCAA is so powerless in some respects and powerful in others when it comes to football.

[Bluealum]

So, does Clemson's openness to offers further substantiate the FSU/Clemson to Big 12 rumors? It's an odd thing to announce after a 2 hour meeting where pressing University issues (tuition) on the agenda, were not addressed. I am surprised that many posters who seem much more in tune with the back chatter on this have not chimed in. I was very surprised that Clemson made a formal comment on this and the comment clearly indicated they were open options. Logically I see no reason to say anything unless they are very far along in their discussions. Am I reading far too much into this?

[laxbluedevil]

Looks like FSU and Clemson could join B12 soon. SEC should take UNC and UVA to get up to DC. B10 could add ND, UMD, UConn, Syracuse.

B12 adds FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, Miami, maybe NCSU or Duke

SEC adds UNC, UVA

B10 adds ND, UMD, UConn, Syracuse

NCSU, Wake, Pitt, BC, probably deserve to be left out of a major conference, Duke could have to join up with those leftover losers in a non-BCS unstable unprofitable mid major league or be the most screwed and distant member of the B12/16.

This is Swofford's fault for negotiating such a horrible contract when PAC 12 with 1/3 of east's population and zero ranked football powers and zero ranked basketball teams recently, negotiated the best TV contract ever just a year ago when the economy was worse. But it's really Duke's and everyone else's fault for keeping Swofford and Wake Forest, etc., in the league, and refusing to accept UConn because BC and Duke and everyone else was scared of them, just like Pitt and everyone else in Big East and ACC was too scared to add Penn State decades ago.

A 10 team league playing all the best rivals every year in every sport to determine a true champ and home and home in hoops could dominate the east with half the US population and more than half the media and money tripling current #1 PAC 12's money, and solving all of Duke and ACC's problems. Again, since #1 PAC 12 had zero ranked football powers and zero ranked hoops teams recently when they negotiated their best contract ever, no reason a new Atlantic league can't triple it. Since it has 3 times as many football powers as 9 team ACC that FSU used to dominate the nation for a dozen years straight, should be ideal for everyone, in fact FSU or PSU might want LESS competition so could even replace Miami with BC: FSU, Miami, GT, UNC, Duke, UVA, UMD, Penn State, Syracuse, UConn.

It's either that or some pathetic group of leftover Big East/ACC third or fourth tier schools, or if they're lucky (?!) being the most screwed and distant member of the Big 12/16 by far. Duke would have zero sports in common with rest of B12/16 (or leftover ACC/Big East) so their best sports like lacrosse, soccer, field hockey, would wither and die while going years between each football win, and basketball would go downhill fast.

Or Duke and others can keep burying their heads in the sand!

[Greg_Newton]

So it this really happening this time? I kind of stopped following this when the ACC added Cuse and Pitt, because we seemed so safe. Should we legitimately be worried this time, though?

It all seems to be moving so fast and confusingly.

[msdukie]

Looks like FSU and Clemson could join B12 soon. SEC should take UNC and UVA to get up to DC. B10 could add ND, UMD, UConn, Syracuse.

B12 adds FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, Miami, maybe NCSU or Duke

SEC adds UNC, UVA

B10 adds ND, UMD, UConn, Syracuse

NCSU, Wake, Pitt, BC, probably deserve to be left out of a major conference, Duke could have to join up with those leftover losers in a non-BCS unstable unprofitable mid major league or be the most screwed and distant member of the B12/16.

This is Swofford's fault for negotiating such a horrible contract when PAC 12 with 1/3 of east's population and zero ranked football powers and zero ranked basketball teams recently, negotiated the best TV contract ever just a year ago when the economy was worse. But it's really Duke's and everyone else's fault for keeping Swofford and Wake Forest, etc., in the league, and refusing to accept UConn because BC and Duke and everyone else was scared of them, just like Pitt and everyone else in Big East and ACC was too scared to add Penn State decades ago.

A 10 team league playing all the best rivals every year in every sport to determine a true champ and home and home in hoops could dominate the east with half the US population and more than half the media and money tripling current #1 PAC 12's money, and solving all of Duke and ACC's problems. Again, since #1 PAC 12 had zero ranked football powers and zero ranked hoops teams recently when they negotiated their best contract ever, no reason a new Atlantic league can't triple it. Since it has 3 times as many football powers as 9 team ACC that FSU used to dominate the nation for a dozen years straight, should be ideal for everyone, in fact FSU or PSU might want LESS competition so could even replace Miami with BC: FSU, Miami, GT, UNC, Duke, UVA, UMD, Penn State, Syracuse, UConn.

It's either that or some pathetic group of leftover Big East/ACC third or fourth tier schools, or if they're lucky (?!) being the most screwed and distant member of the Big 12/16 by far. Duke would have zero sports in common with rest of B12/16 (or leftover ACC/Big East) so their best sports like lacrosse, soccer, field hockey, would wither and die while going years between each football win, and basketball would go downhill fast.

Or Duke and others can keep burying their heads in the sand!

Thank you for making me laugh. Sorry it was at your expense.

[laxbluedevil]

TCU AD: ‘schools like FSU, Clemson, Miami trying to get in’ Big 12


http://collegefootballtalk.nbcsports...get-in-big-12/


Big 12 only has 10 schools, so may be adding 6 more. The biggest arguments against going to the B12 for FSU, Clemson, and others, have been the travel involved, maybe having to play teams like Kansas State as rivals, and that the difference in money wouldn't be enough to offset exit fees, travel costs, etc. But if B12 adds FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, Miami, and either ND or NCSU or Duke or Louisville, they'd make even more money, they can continue to play their old ACC rivals, travel wouldn't be worse, etc. All while being in maybe the best football league, better even than SEC? The FSU and Clemson fans already want to leave, just like with Texas A&M, the board of trustees is basically a bunch of football FANS with ALL the power. That's why it's all over the place that FSU and Clemson to Big 12 are "inevitable" and they've "agreed in principle", etc. And that's without even taking into account VT, GT, Miami, maybe NCSU, etc., would then be forced to join them, making it a much easier decision.

How does this help Duke? SEC has 14 and should want UNC and UVA to extend up to DC. B10 also wants to dominate midwest and northeast all the way to DC with UMD, ND, UConn, Syracuse. Looks like Duke could be left out in the cold, most people would love to stick it to Duke. Penn State was left out in the cold when Big East and ACC rejected them and Paterno couldn't form his own eastern league, and had to join B10 as an outlier, this hurt their football and overall athletics. Duke to B12 or with leftover Big East/ACC losers would be much worse.

ACC has too many schools in NC which is a major complaint of FSU and Clemson who don't like getting screwed by Chapel Hill refs hired by UNC's Swofford, so unless they drop noncontributors like Wake to add powers in new TV markets like UConn or Penn State, people don't see why FSU, Clemson, GT, VT, Miami, etc., wouldn't be better off with far more money in B12.

Even with Pitt and Syracuse, ACC doesn't have the PA or NYC/NJ/CT markets at all. Biggest fanbases in NYC are schools like Penn State, ND, UConn, St Johns, maybe Syracuse but only a part.

UConn, Syracuse, Penn State, should dominate NY, PA, and the northeast, UMD, UVA, Duke, UNC, the midatlantic, GT, FSU, Miami, the southeast. Miami could be switched with Clemson or BC but 10 is ideal for playing every other every year to maintain real rivalries and crown a true champ, plus home and home in hoops.

Unless ACC becomes better and fairer somehow with drops and adds, or the best eastern schools form a new league, given that South Carolina already left ACC just because they hated the power of the NC schools even when they didn't have anywhere better to go, why shouldn't FSU and the others leave for more money and a better more stable league?

[BlueDevil16]

Should we start all this Duke to the big 10 buzz so we don't get left out? all the other recent expansions have happened due to fan support on message boards haha

[laxbluedevil]

Duke wouldn't be any better off in the Big 10/16 than the Big 12/16. Travel, "rivalries", common sports, would all be horrible, probably worse in B10. Same with SEC, except travel wouldn't be as bad. Big 10, Big 12, SEC, all would ensure Duke would go years between football wins, and hurt lacrosse, soccer, field hockey, and basketball. Vandy, UNC, UVA, UK, nobody would want Duke in SEC. I noticed Vandy accepted 13% to Duke's 12%, Vandy in Nashville and SEC could soon surpass Duke. Duke's best option is to keep some sort of ACC or Atlantic league together with UMD, UVA, Duke, UNC, (the lacrosse, soccer, field hockey powers with good academics and rivalries) and others up and down the coast. Only way to do that is disassociate from mediocre to bad programs like Wake and NCSU that don't add as much as they take, and that upset all the schools outside of NC. FSU, Miami, GT, UNC, Duke, UVA, UMD, Penn State, Syracuse, UConn, would be ideal for everyone involved, even the other leagues. Big 10 could go back to 10, now that B12 has proven it can make money it can go back to 12, etc. But things will happen too fast, the NC ACC people will want to protect UNC's advantages and wait in denial until it's too late. People will make rash and emotional instead of rational decisions, just like in the past with Penn State, UConn, Pitts, Texas A&M, Nebraska, etc., due to fear and weakness, need to protect fragile egos and not admit they were wrong. Whether it's in a last place ACC or whatever, the way it's happening, unless things radically change, Duke will be much worse off.

[formerdukeathlete]

Duke wouldn't be any better off in the Big 10/16 than the Big 12/16. Travel, "rivalries", common sports, would all be horrible, probably worse in B10. Same with SEC, except travel wouldn't be as bad. Big 10, Big 12, SEC, all would ensure Duke would go years between football wins, and hurt lacrosse, soccer, field hockey, and basketball. Vandy, UNC, UVA, UK, nobody would want Duke in SEC. I noticed Vandy accepted 13% to Duke's 12%, Vandy in Nashville and SEC could soon surpass Duke. Duke's best option is to keep some sort of ACC or Atlantic league together with UMD, UVA, Duke, UNC, (the lacrosse, soccer, field hockey powers with good academics and rivalries) and others up and down the coast. Only way to do that is disassociate from mediocre to bad programs like Wake and NCSU that don't add as much as they take, and that upset all the schools outside of NC. FSU, Miami, GT, UNC, Duke, UVA, UMD, Penn State, Syracuse, UConn, would be ideal for everyone involved, even the other leagues. Big 10 could go back to 10, now that B12 has proven it can make money it can go back to 12, etc. But things will happen too fast, the NC ACC people will want to protect UNC's advantages and wait in denial until it's too late. People will make rash and emotional instead of rational decisions, just like in the past with Penn State, UConn, Pitts, Texas A&M, Nebraska, etc., due to fear and weakness, need to protect fragile egos and not admit they were wrong. Whether it's in a last place ACC or whatever, the way it's happening, unless things radically change, Duke will be much worse off.

in the mix, I see Duke invited to a power conference were the ACC to disband. Basketball revenue, national appeal, etc. As for Vandy surpassing Duke, Vandy's endowment is (taking into account Duke's share of the Duke Endowment and Duke's reserve funds) less than one third Duke's. Academic research at Vandy is far less. Duke took huge hits with Nan in terms of landing students also admitted to top tier Ivies. Brodhead hurt the University in his mishandling of the Lacrosse hoax. But...going forward, Duke will move ahead.

[J.Blink]

in the mix, I see Duke invited to a power conference were the ACC to disband. Basketball revenue, national appeal, etc. As for Vandy surpassing Duke, Vandy's endowment is (taking into account Duke's share of the Duke Endowment and Duke's reserve funds) less than one third Duke's. Academic research at Vandy is far less. Duke took huge hits with Nan in terms of landing students also admitted to top tier Ivies. Brodhead hurt the University in his mishandling of the Lacrosse hoax. But...going forward, Duke will move ahead.

Wait, I thought your tired thesis was that Duke in the Nan era was too nerdy? Now it's not nerdy enough?

[BlueDevil16]

To me Big 10 is ideal if the ACC breaks up as there are similar caliber academic schools, great all around sports, and the BTN which could provide a lot of revenue.

[formerdukeathlete]

Wait, I thought your tired thesis was that Duke in the Nan era was too nerdy? Now it's not nerdy enough?

Duke was on a roll when Brodie was President, 89 ACC championship in Football, 91 and 92 national championships in Basketball. Work hard was the prevalent culture among undergrads at Duke. Duke was a "cool" alternative to Ivies, even upper tier Ivies. As I recall being involved in alumni admissions at the time, and in New England, our yields versus Ivies, even upper tier Ivies improved (pretty significantly). Nan came in and reformed Duke into a Wellesley book club women's college Yale hybrid model. She bullied fraternities among other things, spoke openly of her assault on work hard play hard at Duke, further to her efforts to make Duke more intellectual in a nerdy way. The irony is that it hurt our efforts to attract top student talent. Notice that Dartmouth has been careful not to attack their work hard play hard culture. Dartmouth is in the most rural setting of the Ivies. Work hard play hard has (always) helped them attract students versus other Ivies. Duke was (always) before Nan a Southern version of Dartmouth, adding in more temperate climate, if not the same skiing opportunities.

Now with regard to the conference realignment vigil, I read more backbiting against the new tv contract because Raycon was awarded tier two broadcasting rights without competitive bidding. http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=16&f=2947&t=9017724&p=1

[CameronBornAndBred]

Duke was on a roll when Brodie was President, 89 ACC championship in Football, 91 and 92 national championships in Basketball.

Duke football sucked in 1990, 1991, and 1992. (And in every year pretty much since then.) So the decline was there before Nan was. In fact, Duke football sucked in all of the 80's, except for '88 and '89. So "on a roll" can be pinned on one person only, and that is Steve Spurrier, not Brodie.