The Conference Realignment Vigil- Update: Terps to Big10?

[nocilla]

Who will be the 15th and 16th teams that join the ACC? Assume that all current schools stay put.

Dream
Notre Dame
Penn State

Real
Rutgers
UConn

I think this is exactly what most everyone would predict. The main differences of opinion are how likely is the dream and how long we should wait for the dream before moving forward with the real.

[A-Tex Devil]

Mizzou's board of curators (I guess it's just one big museum in Columbia) meets today to either agree to commit to the Big XII (and ostensibly sign on to the 6 year pact to grant to the conference all 1st and 2nd tier rights put forth by David Boren of OU and the new Big XII commissioner) or to potentially vote to withdraw and ask for an invite to the SEC. I think it's 80/20 former to latter, but one never knows anymore.

You couldn't begrudge an Mizzou move to the SEC at this point, but if their real goal is the Big Ten, and the Big Ten does eventually go to 14 or 16, Mizzou has to kinda like its chances for being one of the teams that's picked up, especially if the ACC Solidarność is as strong as it currently seems. But it would certainly be a calculated gamble to wait.

If the teams stay in the Big XII, they'll have to grant their 1st and 2nd tier rights to the Big XII for a period of 6 years, which is one year beyond when the contract signed in 2010 expires, I believe. That sounds like a huge ask, but it's not much different, and for many fewer years, than the Pac 12 and Big Ten have tied up the schools first and second tier rights (and in the case of the Pac 12, third tier rights, too). The key difference, of course, is those conferences aren't going anywhere.

Meanwhile, the Big XII will have equal first and second tier revenue sharing now. A red herring of an issue this whole time, but there it is. It will be set up just like the SEC currently is.

[Duvall]

Mizzou's board of curators (I guess it's just one big museum in Columbia) meets today to either agree to commit to the Big XII (and ostensibly sign on to the 6 year pact to grant to the conference all 1st and 2nd tier rights put forth by David Boren of OU and the new Big XII commissioner) or to potentially vote to withdraw and ask for an invite to the SEC. I think it's 80/20 former to latter, but one never knows anymore.

You couldn't begrudge an Mizzou move to the SEC at this point, but if their real goal is the Big Ten, and the Big Ten does eventually go to 14 or 16, Mizzou has to kinda like its chances for being one of the teams that's picked up, especially if the ACC Solidarność is as strong as it currently seems. But it would certainly be a calculated gamble to wait.

If the teams stay in the Big XII, they'll have to grant their 1st and 2nd tier rights to the Big XII for a period of 6 years, which is one year beyond when the contract signed in 2010 expires, I believe. That sounds like a huge ask, but it's not much different, and for many fewer years, than the Pac 12 and Big Ten have tied up the schools first and second tier rights (and in the case of the Pac 12, third tier rights, too). The key difference, of course, is those conferences aren't going anywhere.

But not the SEC, right? So even if Missouri would prefer the Big Ten, doesn't it make sense for them to move to the SEC now, where they wouldn't be restricted from moving to the Big Ten at any time if the Big Ten were interested, as opposed to staying in the Big XII, where they will be locked down for six years?

The internal politics of moving from one strong league to another might be too difficult, though.

[ForkFondler]

I think this is exactly what most everyone would predict. The main differences of opinion are how likely is the dream and how long we should wait for the dream before moving forward with the real.

I think we are likely to stay at 14 for years. I'd say the only shot at further expansion this year is if the Big East completely implodes so that Notre Dame is left with a Catholic school league for their other sports. So, this year, I think these are the two scenarios:

Dream
Notre Dame
UConn

Realistic
Stay at 14

If the ACC gets their revenue in line with the B1G (no reason they couldn't), then perhaps PSU will be a possibility in the future.

[Duvall]

Meanwhile, it looks like the BIG EAST is moving towards adding SMU and UCF as full members.

[A-Tex Devil]

But not the SEC, right? So even if Missouri would prefer the Big Ten, doesn't it make sense for them to move to the SEC now, where they wouldn't be restricted from moving to the Big Ten at any time if the Big Ten were interested, as opposed to staying in the Big XII, where they will be locked down for six years?

The internal politics of moving from one strong league to another might be too difficult, though.

I believe the SEC has a similar lockdown on Tier 1 and Tier 2 rights over the course of their contracts with CBS and ABC/ESPN -- I could be wrong there. But there is a huge difference giving those rights up to the SEC to be redistributed evenly and to the Big XII. Also - in the Big XII, it's beyond the TV contract, which probably gives it some more teeth and makes schools more wary to sign up to it. Also, I agree with you that the inertia required to leave the SEC would be great.

Taking my Texas hat off (no applause necessary), the big fear among the Big XII is that once the LHN is established, Texas will bail in such a manner that the Big XII will fall apart again, and the 6 year lock down won't have any teeth. I grant that its possible, but most of that paranoia, justified or not, has come more from strained interpretations of certain provisions of the LHN contract with ESPN than any overt action by Texas.

[A-Tex Devil]

This is a pretty good article on Chuck Neinas, the new Big XII commissioner, and his role in giving schools and conferences the freedom to negotiate their own rights 30 years ago. It hearkens back to the discussion raised by Scorp4Me, I believe, as to why the NCAA couldn't come in and just take over again.

[sagegrouse]

I believe the SEC has a similar lockdown on Tier 1 and Tier 2 rights over the course of their contracts with CBS and ABC/ESPN -- I could be wrong there. But there is a huge difference giving those rights up to the SEC to be redistributed evenly and to the Big XII. Also - in the Big XII, it's beyond the TV contract, which probably gives it some more teeth and makes schools more wary to sign up to it. Also, I agree with you that the inertia required to leave the SEC would be great.

Taking my Texas hat off (no applause necessary), the big fear among the Big XII is that once the LHN is established, Texas will bail in such a manner that the Big XII will fall apart again, and the 6 year lock down won't have any teeth. I grant that its possible, but most of that paranoia, justified or not, has come more from strained interpretations of certain provisions of the LHN contract with ESPN than any overt action by Texas.

Re: Mizzou first to the SEC and then to the Big Ten. Uh, doesn't the SEC have lawyers, and wouldn't any conference agreement involving Mizzou involve a total inability to leave over 10-12 (20?) years? That other conference members don't have that agreement seems irrelevant to me. If the conference wants to put conditions on a new member as a condition of entry, so be it.

sagegrouse

[ACCBBallFan]

Ok, this is not an official DBR poll, but would like to see everyone go on record...keep it focused. No "what if's". You already get two bites at the apple (Dream & Real).

DBR Analyticals, just pull the proverbial trigger on this. Fully realize that it's out of your (our) comfort zone. Feel certain that Jason will track everything. Right, big guy?

Who will be the 15th and 16th teams that join the ACC? Assume that all current schools stay put.

Dream
Notre Dame
Penn State

Real
Rutgers
UConn

Dream
Notre Dame
Penn State

Real
Stay at 14
Stay at 14

For next 4 years anyway. I might have a different answer for Dream/Real in 2015 or so, but you did not specify a time frame.

Your answer of UCONN/Rutgers violates the premise that all ACC schools would stay put. Some ACC Football schools will secede if/when that happens. Then ACC is worse off than it is staying put at 14

[Duvall]

Your answer of UCONN/Rutgers violates the premise that all ACC schools would stay put. Some ACC Football schools will secede if/when that happens.

Wait, what?

[ForkFondler]

Your answer of UCONN/Rutgers violates the premise that all ACC schools would stay put. Some ACC Football schools will secede if/when that happens. Then ACC is worse off than it is staying put at 14[/SIZE]

Oh, I don't know. If the people in Bridgeport wanted the people in Storrs bad enough to make it worth our while, we'd do it.

[ACCBBallFan]

Wait, what?

Syracuse (770K TV share) and Pitt (831K) make a lot of sense for ACC 13-14. Their TV shares do somewhat lower than the ACC average by 19K from 931K to 912K, but best ACC could realistically have annexed in short term, and enable a new TV contract with 2 new markets.

You could counter that Rutgers (938K) and UCONN (619K) sum to 1.557 million which is not that much different than Cuse+Pitt total of 1.607 million that the average only again falls another 19K to 895K. That would be true if it was just a numbers exercise.

There may even be a monetary incentive for being at 16 teams rather than 14 with respect to BCS bowl AQ qualifications, but that is no less true if it is ND and PSU instead of Rutgers and UCONN.

The differences are that after Pitt and Cuse are investments of 19K TV share, adding Rutgers and UCONN is pretty much redundant markets, a second 19K expense since the first can no longer be termed an investment, not to mention intrusion on BC turf.

The former two set the stage for eventually attracting or at least increase the odds of attracting ND (2.262M) and/or PSU (2.642M), the ultimate best hopes for ACC. They actually help the ACC cause relative to B1G by blocking or at least impeding the B1G from adding Maryland from ACC and blocking B1G from adding Pittsburgh from BE for same purposes of appeasing PSU to remain in B1G and enticing Notre Dame to join B1G.

With those 2 plums instead the ACC average climbs all the way to 1.105 million and everybody wins, including the alumni of both schools and their TV appeal that dramatically change the economics and the next TV contract. I doubt adding Rutgers and UCONN would move the TV dial much and may actually hurt the TV negotiations.

So 13-14 is an enabler, or at least not a preventer of the ultimate goal, while the wrong ACC 15-16 is a permanent exclusion.

That no doubt leads to a ripple effect where some of the four largest markets Clemson @ 1.762 M, GA Tech at 1.664 M, VA Tech at 1.333 M and Miami at 1.332 M (or FSU surprisingly only 813K for other reasons) take their business elsewhere so that they make more money rather than subsidize low market ACC football schools like Wake (149K), NC St (469K), Maryland (474K) and Duke (536K) who are much smaller than next biggest FSU (813K), well actually now Cuse (770K).

Regardless of how middle of the road Notre Dame and Penn State may be becoming as a modern day football power, they still have cache, reputation, prestige, whatever you want to call it, plus they are accretive big time that quantumly offset the minimal Cuse/Pitt dilution if any after TV renegotiated for ACC 13-14.

Moving to ACC would enhance ND and PSU ability to qualify for BCS Bowl games and help everybody.

Losing ND ultimately to B1G, once its football independence is no longer possible, permanently relegates ACC to at best 4th best football conference, versus in the mix for 2-3-4 behind SEC. The ACC football "powers" want to be viewed as football powers, not as best of the worst.

In that doomsday scenario, SEC, P12 and B1G are three of the 4 super conferences and the 4th is likely a merger of the best football schools in ACC/B12 with others not so good in football or not so big a TV share reverting to a Basketball conference.

So yes, ACC 15-16 has major implications and does not have to be made with low hanging fruit UCONN and Rutgers. The decision does not have to be made at all until SEC gets beyond 13-14 and B1G and P12 get beyond 12. That may or may not be by 2015, but no reason to fold ACC cards prematurely with a decision doomed to fail from football perspective that drives everything.

http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/201...%20york&st=cse - same NY Times link on TV shares


BTW, B1G virtually requires membership in Association of American Universities (AAU). Rutgers #68 academically is AAU, UCONN #58 is not. I am sure B1G would make an exception for Notre Dame (#19 though not AAU) but doubt they would be as anxious to do so for both UCONN and Notre Dame, just ND.

So B1G probably opts for Rutgers for NY market to their east and Notre Dame in their wheel house, plus Missouri (90 and AAU) and Kansas (101 and AAU) to get to 16 if they can separate KU from K-St (non AAU and #143) which is doubtful making KU a non starter. Iowa State #97 is AAU but not much of a draw and may not be vetoed by Iowa.

Not many other AAU left except Texas and 6 ACC schools - Pitt, MD, UVA, Duke, UNC and GA Tech or SEC's Vandy, A&M and Florida or P12 schools .

Pitt #58 is AAU and attractive to convince PSU they are not 5 hours and 45 minutes and 336 mile drive from nearest conference foe Ohio State. In addition to Pitt, Maryland, Syracuse and UVA are also all closer to PSU than Ohio State is.

Rutgers - PSU commute is 4.1 hours and 229 miles a little closer than Ohio St. UCONN is actually a bit further, same distance from PSU as VA Tech.

[sagegrouse]

[SIZE=2]Pitt #58 is AAU and attractive to convince PSU they are not 5 hours and 45 minutes and 336 mile drive from nearest conference for Ohio State. In addition to Pitt, Maryland, Syracuse and UVA are also all closer to PSU than Ohio State is.

Rutgers - PSU commute is 4.1 hours and 229 miles a little closer than Ohio St. UCONN is actually a bit further, same distance from PSU as VA Tech.

Have you ever driven to Penn State? I've done it a couple of times. The ridges in PA and throughout the Appalachians run NE to SW. So approaching Penn State from the DC area (SE), for example, or from any ACC location except Pitt is no fun. Of course, Miami is similarly isolated, but at least when you get there....

sagegrouse

[Duvall]

Mizzou's board of curators (I guess it's just one big museum in Columbia) meets today to either agree to commit to the Big XII (and ostensibly sign on to the 6 year pact to grant to the conference all 1st and 2nd tier rights put forth by David Boren of OU and the new Big XII commissioner) or to potentially vote to withdraw and ask for an invite to the SEC. I think it's 80/20 former to latter, but one never knows anymore.

Starting to look like the latter...Missouri Board of Curators has voted to empower the university's president to explore leaving the Big XII.

[Duvall]

Starting to look like the latter...Missouri Board of Curators has voted to empower the university's president to explore leaving the Big XII.

And here's the story.

[ForkFondler]

And here's the story.

"Now it looks as if the Big 12 might need to replace two members for the second straight year."

... and maybe SMU and TCU can renew their SWC rivalry in the B12:

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...-june-jones-/1

...spin spin spin

[sagegrouse]

"Now it looks as if the Big 12 might need to replace two members for the second straight year."

... and maybe SMU and TCU can renew their SWC rivalry in the B12:

http://content.usatoday.com/communit...-june-jones-/1

...spin spin spin

Looks like the Big 12 would be down to eight schools. I suppose it is possible, but just barely, that Texas may have to acquiesce to the admission of the four Southwest Conference schools it dumped in helping form the Big 12: TCU, SMU, Houston, and Rice. But the irony would be exceptionally rich.

BYU would be a catch, but I don't think Louisville, Cincinnati or WVa are particularly good fits in football.

sagegrouse -- Duke BA, Rice PhD
'Of, course, "eight" is "12" in the heximal system [base six]'

[ForkFondler]

Looks like the Big 12 would be down to eight schools. I suppose it is possible, but just barely, that Texas may have to acquiesce to the admission of the four Southwest Conference schools it dumped in helping form the Big 12: TCU, SMU, Houston, and Rice. But the irony would be exceptionally rich.

BYU would be a catch, but I don't think Louisville, Cincinnati or WVa are particularly good fits in football.

sagegrouse -- Duke BA, Rice PhD
'Of, course, "eight" is "12" in the heximal system [base six]'

Rice isn't going anywhere, but I think TCU and SMU have announced that they want to go somewhere together.

UTEP might be available.

[A-Tex Devil]

Rice isn't going anywhere, but I think TCU and SMU have announced that they want to go somewhere together.

UTEP might be available.

I think BYU and Louisville get Big XII offers but I am not sure BYU accepts at this point. I don't know about TCU and SMU working together. At least not if Gary Patterson has something to say about it.

If BYU turns down the Big XII, then at this point, anything could happen.

Also, after the egg on it's face last year, and the fact the SEC Presidents are apparently meeting tomorrow, I get the feeling now this Mizzou to SEC was a done deal once the Curators signed off on it. We shall see.

[throatybeard]

I suppose it is possible, but just barely, that Texas may have to acquiesce to the admission of the four Southwest Conference schools it dumped in helping form the Big 12: TCU, SMU, Houston, and Rice. But the irony would be exceptionally rich.

That would be approximately the most appropriate and just thing ever in this carnival. I have no ties to any of the Big XII schools; at this point, I'm just rooting to see Texas get its richly deserved just desserts.

I'm not crossing my fingers though.