The Conference Realignment Vigil- Update: Terps to Big10?

[A-Tex Devil]

This is before A&M was traded to the Racine Belles err.... left for the SEC, of course.

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Good luck Ags!

[ACCBBallFan]

Sage and Cavlaw,

Thanks for the responses. As for the TV dollars, I didn't consider the added money from the Big Ten championship game, but the estimates from the Big Ten Network package are already factored into those numbers (from the SI link). But no, these numbers do not encompass the grant money--which is admittedly a bigger factor than I realized.

I believe PSU is--at best--a long shot for the ACC, and that we will probably end up getting two out of the three of UConn, Rutgers, and ND. And since UConn and Rutgers are not going anywhere else for the time being, I think it would be best to hold out for ND, even though it's the least likely of the three. Meanwhile, we sit tight with our new 14-team league, take advantage of our new markets, and renegotiate with ESPN.

Thanks for your research and insights, El Diablo. I agree and did not realize how close the ACC revenues were to other conferences, even before the sooner renegotiaiton thanks to Pitt/Cuse.

For the foreseeable future, just protect against any poaching of the two AAU schools Maryland or UVA by B1G and hope the SEC continues to look unfavorably on schools from the same state SEC is already in.

Clemson (1.76M), GA Tech (1.66M), and Miami (1.32M) are 3 of the top 4 ACC markets [VA Tech 1.33M edges Miami by 10K for 3rd]. These 4 fund the smaller ACC markets Wake (149K), NC State (469K), Maryland (474K) and Duke (536K) with middle markets being UNC (959), UVA (836) Pitt (831), Cuse (769) and FSU (surprisingly relatively low 813K) also prevented by UF from joining SEC .

Same SEC Alliance prevents USF (521K) and UL (300K) in BE.

Hopefully state politics and geography will keep VA Tech and UVA(836K) in ACC, leaving only the remote possibility of NC St fleeing to SEC.

Losing 44-14 to Cincy and being relatively small 469K TV Share makes NC St less appealing as SEC14th than West VA (959K) or Missouri (1,085M). Not being in AAU and ranked 101 academicallly eliminates State from B1G.

Among AAU schools, B1G can forget anbout Duke and UNC. Rutgers (938K) and MD (474K) rather than either with UVA or Pitt to B1G as #13-14 with 15-16 saved for Notre Dame is less attractive in short term, since Notre Dame 2.262 million TV Share is needed to make it overall be accretive rather than be dilutive.

As you say, same is true of UCONN (619K) and Rutgers (938K) to ACC without Notre Dame, before even factoring in UCONN-Rutgers duo only average at best with ACC football on field and in associated revenue. Not being in AAU though ranked 58 academicallly eliminates UCONN from B1G, before their ethics do.

So why tee off the better ACC football schools, until 16 is inevitable in 3 other conferences and there are also no better choices, however unlikely they may be now?

The higher grant $$ is interesting but these are not shared, just rub elbows type of thing.

[Duvall]

Rick Pitino has a theory on ACC expansion. It is kind of insane.

[Scorp4me]

Rick Pitino has a theory on ACC expansion. It is kind of insane.

He brings up some good points in the article. And while I'm not a fan of ACC expansion I find his reasons for it to be laughable. If it were nothing more than ACC jealousy of Big East accomplishments...then how would the ACC be able to lure Big East schools away? other than that great points.

[Duvall]

I don't think the membership of the 4-4-4 Committee has been released. Would be interesting to see if it included White and Wake's President Hatch.

And there it is.

[ForkFondler]

He brings up some good points in the article. And while I'm not a fan of ACC expansion I find his reasons for it to be laughable. If it were nothing more than ACC jealousy of Big East accomplishments...then how would the ACC be able to lure Big East schools away? other than that great points.

Big East football should break off and become a separate conference with it's own TV contract. Then they could worry about whether or not it's worth it to bring a school like TCU in just to get some extra BCS money all by themselves.

[ACCBBallFan]

Rick Pitino has a theory on ACC expansion. It is kind of insane.

Pitino if he wanted to, could have worded it better.

It is true that coach K and ole Roy chastised some ACC bubble teams for not scheduling OOC stronger- think VA Tech and Clemson for example.

It does not matter how strong or weak Duke and UNC schedule since top teams get in any way, but SOS is one of the tie breakers for bubble teams.

So Pitino has a point that since BE has more good teams, at least pre Cuse and Pitt swaps, the BE bubble teams have a strong overall body of work regardless of how they schedule OOC.

A few years ago MVC for example did a great job of milking the RPI formula

[Wander]

A few years ago MVC for example did a great job of milking the RPI formula

Considering how good the MVC teams did in the tournament those years (2006 and 2007), I think the simpler explanation is just that the MVC was really good.

[sagegrouse]

Considering how good the MVC teams did in the tournament those years (2006 and 2007), I think the simpler explanation is just that the MVC was really good.

I did some analysis back at the time. There is a broader problem (and I may have some stuff in a couple of weeks): NCAA Tournament Selection is junk science at best. There is very little data on teams playing outside the conference, and much of that is in November and early /December, where even the coaches admit that their teams are not fully formed.

In the year in question, there was a win over LSU in Baton Rouge in Dec. by two points by an MVC team (Creighton?). Otherwise, there was no data helping rank the MVC teams against at-large selections from the power conferences. I mean, that is a "weak test," as the stat guys are fond of saying.

sagegrouse

[Duvall]

Connecticut's governor speaks.

Connecticut’s governor confirmed on Monday that the University of Connecticut is interested in becoming part of the Atlantic Coast Conference should that league expand to 16 teams.

Gov. Dannel P. Malloy, speaking to reporters outside his Capitol office, said he no longer expects the ACC to act quickly after adding Pittsburgh and Syracuse from the Big East earlier this month.

“I think there was expectancy built up initially that this was quickly going to be resolved,” he said. “That’s clearly not the case. The ACC has the first decision to make and that’s whether they’re going to stay at 14 teams or stay at 16. I know that there’s one team, one school that they would like to get into the ACC that would guarantee them going to 16 teams and that’s been speculated to be Notre Dame. I suspect that that’s true. I don’t know how likely that is to happen or not happen. Although, I tend to think it’s not terribly likely.”

Malloy said if Notre Dame isn’t interested the ACC must decide if there is any compelling reason to expand again.

“Beyond that, then you fall back to the Big East,” he said. “The Big East then has to rebuild itself to fill the loss of the two teams that left and has to worry about its ability to compete on the major sports of basketball and football in particular, as well as how do we make that work for student athletes.”

[Jim3k]

NCAA prez not happy with all the jumping and announced discontent--particularly the bad press over perceived greed.

[jafarr1]

NCAA prez not happy with all the jumping and announced discontent--particularly the bad press over perceived greed.

"Perceived" greed?

[ForkFondler]

NCAA prez not happy with all the jumping and announced discontent--particularly the bad press over perceived greed.

Nevermind the conference jumping and expansion, let's talk about the silly BCS nonsense. Can we have 16, 8, or even a 4 team 1A playoff, please?

No?

[Duvall]

Calipari: SEC should "go and get Virginia Tech, Maryland and Missouri."

[mph]

Calipari: SEC should "go and get Virginia Tech, Maryland and Missouri."

Money quote:

"I don't think this stuff is done yet," Calipari said. "I've said for months that there may be four conferences with 16 or 18 teams each. But I can tell you that the SEC at 13, 14 or 16 is going to be stable. We're fine. If they're going to add, I'd like us to go and get Virginia Tech, Maryland and Missouri to go along with Texas A&M. We're not going to do anything at the expense of academics. You're also going to see basketball step up in the next five years in the SEC."

[OldPhiKap]

"Perceived" greed?

He keeps using that word. I do not believe it means what he thinks it means.

[dukebluelemur]

He keeps using that word. I do not believe it means what he thinks it means.

Absent your own quote, I would have assumed you were talking about Calipari and "academics."

[Jim3k]

"Perceived" greed?

He keeps using that word. I do not believe it means what he thinks it means.

from the USA Today article:

Emmert said the movement of the past few weeks left the impression that an enterprise ostensibly tied to higher education is being driven solely by money.

From dictionary.com

per·ceive
   [per-seev] Show IPA
verb (used with object), -ceived, -ceiv·ing.
1.
to become aware of, know, or identify by means of the senses: I perceived an object looming through the mist.
2.
to recognize, discern, envision, or understand: I perceive a note of sarcasm in your voice. This is a nice idea but I perceive difficulties in putting it into practice.

So what is it about the word 'perceive' that I misused? I was using the word to describe what Emmert said. And he said the conference movements were leaving the impression that money was the driving factor.

It doesn't matter whether Emmert's conclusion is correct. He thinks it so, based on his observation. So he "perceives" the conclusion in the same manner that the dictionary defines the word.

So -- what's the misuse?

[ForkFondler]

It doesn't matter whether Emmert's conclusion is correct. He thinks it so, based on his observation. So he "perceives" the conclusion in the same manner that the dictionary defines the word.

So -- what's the misuse?

It implies that there is room for doubt.

[Jim3k]

It implies that there is room for doubt.

of course. that is why one says it that way. emmert perceives what he perceives, but his perception may not be accurate. doubt is always implied, because the perceiver is fallible. indeed, if we were talking about a witness in a trial, his perception is open to doubt.