The Conference Realignment Vigil- Update: Terps to Big10?

[uh_no]

Well, after listening to Kevin White on the Inside Duke Football Radio show today, I am convinced more than ever that this race to 16 Team Leagues is going to happen and happen soon. He never directly mentioned the ACC exploring their options, but he gave me the impression, that is exactly what is going on. He also made an interesting comment, suggesting schools would have to look at their situation, and see if it would be beneficial to move to another conference. I took it to mean Duke is exploring all options.

I think the ACC needs to be proactive to protect itself, and try to go to 16 as soon as possible. As much as I hate hate freaking hate to see these mega-conferences, I am afraid if the ACC is not proactive, they could go the way of the Big 12 (which is doomed imo), and fall apart with many of our teams heading to the SEC and Big 10.

I am sold on Syracuse, and Pitt, and I would ask Notre Dame as well. I know some folks don't like them, but West Virginia might be the best option for that 16th team, especially logistics wise.

If Notre Dame says no, and logistics gets tossed to the wind, I would take 2 of the 4 ATD has in his list above and invite Texas and Kanas. Both would be great fits Basketball wise.

The Clock is ticking Mr Swofford, so please do not bungle this...

After tonights performance, I am worried about what conference would take duke...the can Duke's huge name in basketball compensate for their football shortcomings?

Since it's saturday night, lets suggest a fun ness...

the SEC and Big 10 pass on duke because of the fact that they won't draw football stuff (given now that I think about it, if we were in the SEC or the Big 10, we'd get a huge recruiting boost just from playing a big game every weekend)

we take all the big basketball schools that don't have super football programs and make a new basketball centered league (new version of the big east...sort of) Duke, Kansas, Uconn, Louisville, UNC, west virginia, kansas state, and IDK...state...we get an team league going...this is stupid i know...but its 12:30 on a saturday night if yo uknow what I mean. but these are schools that the 3 big football conferences are not dying to have and could make a great bball conference

anyway...wherever they go, duke basketball will keep them relevent...and like someone said, i hope it happenes while K is sitll here...since duke is guaranteed to be very good. i'm really curious to see what happens. There're more teams than can fit in 4 16 team conferences...and tere will be temas that people don't want becaus ethey don't provide anytying in terms of football (duke and uconn for example)

and i'm going to stop now

[SCMatt33]

After tonights performance, I am worried about what conference would take duke...the can Duke's huge name in basketball compensate for their football shortcomings?

Since it's saturday night, lets suggest a fun ness...

the SEC and Big 10 pass on duke because of the fact that they won't draw football stuff (given now that I think about it, if we were in the SEC or the Big 10, we'd get a huge recruiting boost just from playing a big game every weekend)

we take all the big basketball schools that don't have super football programs and make a new basketball centered league (new version of the big east...sort of) Duke, Kansas, Uconn, Louisville, UNC, west virginia, kansas state, and IDK...state...we get an team league going...this is stupid i know...but its 12:30 on a saturday night if yo uknow what I mean. but these are schools that the 3 big football conferences are not dying to have and could make a great bball conference

anyway...wherever they go, duke basketball will keep them relevent...and like someone said, i hope it happenes while K is sitll here...since duke is guaranteed to be very good. i'm really curious to see what happens. There're more teams than can fit in 4 16 team conferences...and tere will be temas that people don't want becaus ethey don't provide anytying in terms of football (duke and uconn for example)

and i'm going to stop now

I think it's always important to remember that being "good" at football is not what conferences are looking for. They want teams that generate enough money in TV revenues as to raise the value of TV deals enough to raise the amount of money that each school takes home. These are not always the same thing. It is very possible that a team like Missouri will be a more valuable option than Va Tech. Va Tech has a superior team and will generate superior matchups from a TV standpoint. They are located in the middle of nowhere, however, while Missouri is squeezed between two top 30 markets. They certainly don't dominate either one, but are enough of a presence to command a standard cable posiition (and therefore standard cable rights fees) for any current or future conference network. This is money that Va Tech simply can't match.

Now of course, Duke has neither one going for it as there is virtually no substantial fan presence for Duke football. Most Duke basketball fans across the country are not alumni and do not have direct connections to the university. Even among the ones who do, not all of them root for Duke football. Many if not most Duke fans have a college football team not named Duke that they root for if they are interested in college football at all. Of course, the people on this board, and the people not on this board that they engage in Duke fandom mostly fall in the minority in this regard. With that said, there are certainly scenarios in which Duke gets left behind. Most if not all of these scenarios involve UNC jumping ship to the SEC, and the remaining Big East football teams are stronger than the remaining ACC teams such that the Big East hand picks which ACC teams to invite instead of the reverse.

Even in this worst case scenario, what I see as the likely outcome is that of the 67 or 68 current BCS teams (counting TCU and depending on whether or not ND remains independent through all of this), only 3-4 will be left out. Even with the info I laid out above, I don't see Duke as one of those. For this scenario to play out, the Big East has to be left mostly alone by the SEC and Big Ten. Let's say that the Pac-12 adds Texas, TTech, OU, and OKST. The Big Ten could plausibly add ND, BC, Kansas, and Maryland (if they tried as hard as possible to stay away from the Big East). The SEC adds TA&M, UNC, Va Tech and Missouri. There might be more realistic teams out there, but again, I was sparing the Big East for a worst case scenario, and the SEC doesn't want to expand within it's footprint or double up on a market. Out of the Big 12, Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor are out in the cold already. Let's swap KState for BC because Kansas fought really hard for them, though it not like Kansas would be at the top of the Big Ten's list in reality, but for arguments sake. Even going way out on a limb, I just can't see Iowa St or Baylor getting a Big 10 or SEC invite and I don't see them above Duke on the Big East's list. That's already 2 of the 4 teams.

The Big East survives with it's current 8 plus TCU coming in, so they want to add 7 more and are left with 9 ACC Teams to choose from (UNC, Va Tech, and MD are gone). As long as there isn't a death penalty issue with Miami or lingering spite, the two former Big East teams (BC and Miami) get invited back. That leaves 7 for 5 spots. Florida State is almost a no brainer with it's current status and past history in football. Georgia Tech adds a top ten market and is a shoein. NC state has the biggest local fan base left in NC and would offer a big chunch of the Raleigh market and a small chunck of the Charlotte market. This leaves 4 (Clemson, Duke, UVA, Wake) for 2 spots. All four are either in a bad TV market, or in an already accessed market, so we compare potential match-ups that they bring. Despite falling on their faces compared to expectations most years, Clemson does recruit well and have potential. UVA is up and down, and despite being mostly down lately, they are at least not in a used market and are up sometimes, so Duke and Wake are left out. If one little thing changes in all of that, I see no way that Wake goes before Duke, so we'd be back in.

Even if all of this doomsday stuff played out, I would see Duke joining up with the 7 non-football Big East teams (Nova, GTown, Marquette, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall, and DePaul) along with a few others (Memphis perhaps) to form a non-football conference. Duke could then play Army/Navy style independent football as well in whatever form of football is left for those not in the super 64. If those 9 aren't enough, you could look to poach top mid majors in the area (Temple, Xavier, etc.) to round out the conference.

The true doomsday scenario beyond this is if the stars align to leave Duke out of the 64 and then the 64 split from the NCAA. This would keep Duke from even being allowed to participate in a nationally relevent basketball championship event. We'd be relegated to the basketball equivalent of the FCS championship. Throwing the factors necessary for the super 64 to split off in all sports and not jut football to the factors needed to keep Duke out of the 64 makes this an extreme improbablity whose odds are around the same as Duke football suddenly winning a National Title.

[sagegrouse]

I think it's always important to remember that being "good" at football is not what conferences are looking for. They want teams that generate enough money in TV revenues as to raise the value of TV deals enough to raise the amount of money that each school takes home. These are not always the same thing. It is very possible that a team like Missouri will be a more valuable option than Va Tech. Va Tech has a superior team and will generate superior matchups from a TV standpoint. They are located in the middle of nowhere, however, while Missouri is squeezed between two top 30 markets. They certainly don't dominate either one, but are enough of a presence to command a standard cable posiition (and therefore standard cable rights fees) for any current or future conference network. This is money that Va Tech simply can't match.

Now of course, Duke has neither one going for it as there is virtually no substantial fan presence for Duke football. Most Duke basketball fans across the country are not alumni and do not have direct connections to the university. Even among the ones who do, not all of them root for Duke football. Many if not most Duke fans have a college football team not named Duke that they root for if they are interested in college football at all. Of course, the people on this board, and the people not on this board that they engage in Duke fandom mostly fall in the minority in this regard. With that said, there are certainly scenarios in which Duke gets left behind. Most if not all of these scenarios involve UNC jumping ship to the SEC, and the remaining Big East football teams are stronger than the remaining ACC teams such that the Big East hand picks which ACC teams to invite instead of the reverse.

Even in this worst case scenario, what I see as the likely outcome is that of the 67 or 68 current BCS teams (counting TCU and depending on whether or not ND remains independent through all of this), only 3-4 will be left out. Even with the info I laid out above, I don't see Duke as one of those. For this scenario to play out, the Big East has to be left mostly alone by the SEC and Big Ten. Let's say that the Pac-12 adds Texas, TTech, OU, and OKST. The Big Ten could plausibly add ND, BC, Kansas, and Maryland (if they tried as hard as possible to stay away from the Big East). The SEC adds TA&M, UNC, Va Tech and Missouri. There might be more realistic teams out there, but again, I was sparing the Big East for a worst case scenario, and the SEC doesn't want to expand within it's footprint or double up on a market. Out of the Big 12, Iowa St, Kansas St, and Baylor are out in the cold already. Let's swap KState for BC because Kansas fought really hard for them, though it not like Kansas would be at the top of the Big Ten's list in reality, but for arguments sake. Even going way out on a limb, I just can't see Iowa St or Baylor getting a Big 10 or SEC invite and I don't see them above Duke on the Big East's list. That's already 2 of the 4 teams.

The Big East survives with it's current 8 plus TCU coming in, so they want to add 7 more and are left with 9 ACC Teams to choose from (UNC, Va Tech, and MD are gone). As long as there isn't a death penalty issue with Miami or lingering spite, the two former Big East teams (BC and Miami) get invited back. That leaves 7 for 5 spots. Florida State is almost a no brainer with it's current status and past history in football. Georgia Tech adds a top ten market and is a shoein. NC state has the biggest local fan base left in NC and would offer a big chunch of the Raleigh market and a small chunck of the Charlotte market. This leaves 4 (Clemson, Duke, UVA, Wake) for 2 spots. All four are either in a bad TV market, or in an already accessed market, so we compare potential match-ups that they bring. Despite falling on their faces compared to expectations most years, Clemson does recruit well and have potential. UVA is up and down, and despite being mostly down lately, they are at least not in a used market and are up sometimes, so Duke and Wake are left out. If one little thing changes in all of that, I see no way that Wake goes before Duke, so we'd be back in.

Even if all of this doomsday stuff played out, I would see Duke joining up with the 7 non-football Big East teams (Nova, GTown, Marquette, St. Johns, Providence, Seton Hall, and DePaul) along with a few others (Memphis perhaps) to form a non-football conference. Duke could then play Army/Navy style independent football as well in whatever form of football is left for those not in the super 64. If those 9 aren't enough, you could look to poach top mid majors in the area (Temple, Xavier, etc.) to round out the conference.

The true doomsday scenario beyond this is if the stars align to leave Duke out of the 64 and then the 64 split from the NCAA. This would keep Duke from even being allowed to participate in a nationally relevent basketball championship event. We'd be relegated to the basketball equivalent of the FCS championship. Throwing the factors necessary for the super 64 to split off in all sports and not jut football to the factors needed to keep Duke out of the 64 makes this an extreme improbablity whose odds are around the same as Duke football suddenly winning a National Title.

Duke actually ranks fairly high among schools with revenue generated by sports. Here is one list for the 2008-2009 academic year.

Duke is #30 of the top 100 schools, which ranks #3 in the ACC, behind only UVa and Florida State. I have seen these lists before, and they include all forms of revenue, including donations.

Nevertheless, while football is w-a-a-a-y down the list, every Duke basketball game is on national TV. Moreover, the Duke brand in basketball is unsurpassed in terms of (positive and negative) interest. "Duke" is a household name in a way that "the University of North Carolina," "Carolina" (which one?), or "Tar Heels" (What are they, and are they EPA-compliant?) can never be.

I have no worries about Duke being sought by major conferences.

Now, about UNC to the SEC. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I predict that the proud but (recently) ethically challenged University down the road would never stoop to those depths. If it did, it would really show its true colors -- which wouldn't be baby blue.

sagegrouse

[Duvall]

Duke actually ranks fairly high among schools with revenue generated by sports. Here is one list for the 2008-2009 academic year.

Duke is #30 of the top 100 schools, which ranks #3 in the ACC, behind only UVa and Florida State. I have seen these lists before, and they include all forms of revenue, including donations.

Nevertheless, while football is w-a-a-a-y down the list, every Duke basketball game is on national TV. Moreover, the Duke brand in basketball is unsurpassed in terms of (positive and negative) interest. "Duke" is a household name in a way that "the University of North Carolina," "Carolina" (which one?), or "Tar Heels" (What are they, and are they EPA-compliant?) can never be.

I have no worries about Duke being sought by major conferences.

This would be considerably more reassuring if it were not entirely dependent on the continued efforts of a 64-year-old man.

[A-Tex Devil]

While I think at UT, OU, Tech and OSU to the PAC 16 is real, I also think that OU and UT are messaging this very deliberately and purposely.

ESPN does not want to bust up all of their current contracts. Also, despite What Larry Scott says, LHN isn't going anywhere. People cam get their panties in a wad because the Rice game wasn't aired, but the network will get picked up by a couple of e major carriers eventually.

The LHN in the PAC 12 would be national, not regional. It may need to share a bit with Texas Tech (not 50/50) who would be willing to take a smaller share to be part of a national as opposed to a regional network, and probably kick some royalties back to the PAC 12. But that combined with what would be a massive new PAC 12 deal will still go above and beyond what both Texas and Tech get now.

If the PAC 12 won't play ball, Texas might go independent or to a conference that will allow the network.

I am telling you right now, and am willing to eat my share of crow, if I am wrong, this LHN is years in planning and will work. The leadership (UT, ESPN, IMG) has considered all of the potential expansion possibilities, and it will be on TVs across the country on the same sports packages that the Big 10 Network is (normal tier in Texas and sports package tiers in the rest of the country).

[SCMatt33]

Duke actually ranks fairly high among schools with revenue generated by sports. Here is one list for the 2008-2009 academic year.

Duke is #30 of the top 100 schools, which ranks #3 in the ACC, behind only UVa and Florida State. I have seen these lists before, and they include all forms of revenue, including donations.

Nevertheless, while football is w-a-a-a-y down the list, every Duke basketball game is on national TV. Moreover, the Duke brand in basketball is unsurpassed in terms of (positive and negative) interest. "Duke" is a household name in a way that "the University of North Carolina," "Carolina" (which one?), or "Tar Heels" (What are they, and are they EPA-compliant?) can never be.

I have no worries about Duke being sought by major conferences.

Now, about UNC to the SEC. ARE YOU KIDDING ME? I predict that the proud but (recently) ethically challenged University down the road would never stoop to those depths. If it did, it would really show its true colors -- which wouldn't be baby blue.

sagegrouse

A few things...

Revenue that Duke generates for itself, through tickets, donations, merchandise sales, is very different than revenue that gets generated for the conference, value added to TV deals and cable right fees. I have no doubts that Duke generates a lot of revenue, but most of it is stuff that doesn't help a conference. The only thing Duke does that helps a conference is generate basketball ratings. We've seen in recent TV deals that good football ratings are infinitely more important than basketball ratings. There's no other way to explain why the two consistently worst basketball conferences (SEC, Pac-12), just got the best cable deals. As for cable rights fees, Duke has a very spread out fan base. It is great for getting a national network ratings for basketball, but it is poor at generating enough year-round regional interest to get a potential conference network onto standard cable packages.

The "Duke brand" is great for Duke. It is recognizable and helps generate sales to fans and generate interest from foes. This doesn't, however, add any value to a conference. It's benefits are 99% internal. Most Duke hats and shirts don't have an ACC logo slapped on them, and the ones that do have a direct ACC connection only have a small one. The brand is great for Duke, and is one of the reasons that Duke generates a lot of revenue for itself, but it doesn't have tangible benefits for a conference. I'd also argue that "Duke" is not recognizable than "UNC." Other than my 4 years on campus, I have always lived outside of ACC territory. I've been at many places where college merchandise is sold and team logos are placed in ads, etc. I have rarely if ever, seen a Duke shirt, or logo at a non Duke event, without seeing a UNC shirt right next to it.

As for the UNC to SEC thing, I'm not saying that they would do it. I was simply outlining the only scenario in which Duke gets left out in the cold. As long as UNC is in the ACC, the ACC will win out over the Big East. Even if you took all other reasons away, UNC will never leave the ACC for the SEC because it would want to remain the power broker in the ACC as opposed to being just another school in the SEC. I tried (and perhaps failed) to make it clear just how unlikely each individual event in that scenario was (let alone all of them), but the possibility of Duke being left out was brought up and I wanted to show just what would have to happen to make that a reality.

[JG Nothing]

I think the ACC needs to be proactive to protect itself, and try to go to 16 as soon as possible. As much as I hate hate freaking hate to see these mega-conferences, I am afraid if the ACC is not proactive, they could go the way of the Big 12 (which is doomed imo), and fall apart with many of our teams heading to the SEC and Big 10.

I am sold on Syracuse, and Pitt, and I would ask Notre Dame as well. I know some folks don't like them, but West Virginia might be the best option for that 16th team, especially logistics wise.

I think the ACC should lock up the north east coast and invite Rutgers and UConn. Rutgers is a great academic institution and can be asked to devote more resources to revenue sports. UConn, not so much academically but is right there geographically and has great basketball and solid football. Notre Dame will only go to the Big 10 if it goes anywhere. Pitt is a good choice. I'm not sold on Syracuse or West Virginia because I'm not sure what they bring to the table. Still, the ACC may have to go in that direction because I doubt an SEC or Big 10 school will make the move to the ACC. Louisville is an interesting choice but the last time I looked the city was about 15 hours from the Atlantic Coast (not that geographic coherence matters I suppose).

[uh_no]

I think the ACC should lock up the north east coast and invite Rutgers and UConn. Rutgers is a great academic institution and can be asked to devote more resources to revenue sports. UConn, not so much academically but is right there geographically and has great basketball and solid football. Notre Dame will only go to the Big 10 if it goes anywhere. Pitt is a good choice. I'm not sold on Syracuse or West Virginia because I'm not sure what they bring to the table. Still, the ACC may have to go in that direction because I doubt an SEC or Big 10 school will make the move to the ACC. Louisville is an interesting choice but the last time I looked the city was about 15 hours from the Atlantic Coast (not that geographic coherence matters I suppose).

Unless the Big East dissolves, Uconn is likely not leaving (not for the ACC at least). They sued BC when they left the conference...and the ACC swiping teams from the big east left a lot of bad blood with the original BE members

Either way, I don't think the ACC would invite either rutgers or CT unless several more lucrative options have gone by the wayside.

[jimsumner]

I think the ACC should lock up the north east coast and invite Rutgers and UConn. Rutgers is a great academic institution and can be asked to devote more resources to revenue sports. UConn, not so much academically but is right there geographically and has great basketball and solid football. Notre Dame will only go to the Big 10 if it goes anywhere. Pitt is a good choice. I'm not sold on Syracuse or West Virginia because I'm not sure what they bring to the table. Still, the ACC may have to go in that direction because I doubt an SEC or Big 10 school will make the move to the ACC. Louisville is an interesting choice but the last time I looked the city was about 15 hours from the Atlantic Coast (not that geographic coherence matters I suppose).

Geographic coherence might have ended about the time Texas Christian University joined the Big East. Or maybe when Marquette joined.

Louisville doesn't worry me on geographic grounds as much as the fact that many regard the school as a really big community college.

[sagegrouse]

A few things...

Revenue that Duke generates for itself, through tickets, donations, merchandise sales, is very different than revenue that gets generated for the conference, value added to TV deals and cable right fees. I have no doubts that Duke generates a lot of revenue, but most of it is stuff that doesn't help a conference. The only thing Duke does that helps a conference is generate basketball ratings. We've seen in recent TV deals that good football ratings are infinitely more important than basketball ratings. There's no other way to explain why the two consistently worst basketball conferences (SEC, Pac-12), just got the best cable deals. As for cable rights fees, Duke has a very spread out fan base. It is great for getting a national network ratings for basketball, but it is poor at generating enough year-round regional interest to get a potential conference network onto standard cable packages.

The "Duke brand" is great for Duke. It is recognizable and helps generate sales to fans and generate interest from foes. This doesn't, however, add any value to a conference. It's benefits are 99% internal. Most Duke hats and shirts don't have an ACC logo slapped on them, and the ones that do have a direct ACC connection only have a small one. The brand is great for Duke, and is one of the reasons that Duke generates a lot of revenue for itself, but it doesn't have tangible benefits for a conference. I'd also argue that "Duke" is not recognizable than "UNC." Other than my 4 years on campus, I have always lived outside of ACC territory. I've been at many places where college merchandise is sold and team logos are placed in ads, etc. I have rarely if ever, seen a Duke shirt, or logo at a non Duke event, without seeing a UNC shirt right next to it.

As for the UNC to SEC thing, I'm not saying that they would do it. I was simply outlining the only scenario in which Duke gets left out in the cold. As long as UNC is in the ACC, the ACC will win out over the Big East. Even if you took all other reasons away, UNC will never leave the ACC for the SEC because it would want to remain the power broker in the ACC as opposed to being just another school in the SEC. I tried (and perhaps failed) to make it clear just how unlikely each individual event in that scenario was (let alone all of them), but the possibility of Duke being left out was brought up and I wanted to show just what would have to happen to make that a reality.

With respect to revenue and TV fees, you should come up with your own data. I showed you what I had. WRT to Duke's brand vs. UNC, it's all in the name -- University of North Carolina, Carolina, UNC, North Carolina, Tar Heels are all less punchy than Duke. It's why Duke is often mentioned in TV scripts (usually unfavorably, but there is no such thing as bad publicity exceot for the kind being rung up by UNC, Miami and Ohio State).

Duke is an iconic basketball program. Take it to the bank. Oh, yes! We have! That was my point.

sagegrouse

[blazindw]

Geographic coherence might have ended about the time Texas Christian University joined the Big East. Or maybe when Marquette joined.

Louisville doesn't worry me on geographic grounds as much as the fact that many regard the school as a really big community college.

Most people in Big East country who are football fans don't look at it as much of an anomaly. Remember, for decades, the Dallas Cowboys have been in the NFC East with Philly, Washington and the Giants (all in Big East markets). TCU, which is from Fort Worth, is used to having Northeast teams on their television screens every week.

[jimsumner]

Most people in Big East country who are football fans don't look at it as much of an anomaly. Remember, for decades, the Dallas Cowboys have been in the NFC East with Philly, Washington and the Giants (all in Big East markets). TCU, which is from Fort Worth, is used to having Northeast teams on their television screens every week.

Hey, I remember when the Panthers were in the NFC West, along with their long-time geographical rivals, the San Francisco 49ers. Just find, I-40 and go west 2,000 miles. If you hit the Pacific Ocean, you've gone too far.

[msdukie]

This would be considerably more reassuring if it were not entirely dependent on the continued efforts of a 64-year-old man.

Which is why I hope the K Lab's cloning project is going well....

[loldevilz]

The reason Duke will never be left out in the cold is because it has two rivals (UNC and Maryland) that would never leave Duke out in the cold. The rivalries mean to much to the fan bases. Can you imagine Duke not playing UNC or Maryland in basketball twice a year?

[Duvall]

The reason Duke will never be left out in the cold is because it has two rivals (UNC and Maryland) that would never leave Duke out in the cold. The rivalries mean to much to the fan bases. Can you imagine Duke not playing UNC or Maryland in basketball twice a year?

That didn't stop Nebraska from leaving Oklahoma or Texas A&M from leaving Texas. Arkansas didn't leave behind one of its rivals in going to the SEC, it left all of them. Missouri would drop Kansas in a heartbeat if they could find someone to take them. If a team wants to leave, no rivalry is going to stop them.

[DueBlevil]

The reason Duke will never be left out in the cold is because it has two rivals (UNC and Maryland) that would never leave Duke out in the cold. The rivalries mean to much to the fan bases. Can you imagine Duke not playing UNC or Maryland in basketball twice a year?

I'm not sure how comfortable I would be having our fate left in the hands of UNC and Maryland... and that the reason they would save us is that they hate us so much...

But I also think that even though our football team is a liability now, it is possible that when this super-consolidation occurs, we might be close enough to respectability to make all this moot. I mean, is there any way the ACC would crumble before the next 5-10 years? Well I guess you never know, given the Big XII seems to be collapsing overnight

[Duvall]

But I also think that even though our football team is a liability now, it is possible that when this super-consolidation occurs, we might be close enough to respectability to make all this moot.

Respectability wouldn't be nearly good enough. Kansas was able to reach respectability in recent years, and it didn't help them at all. Duke is, and will remain, a small private school without a large alumni base. It would take a Miami-type run of success to make Duke's football program anything other than a liability.

[arnie]

Any idea what type of feel Kevin White has for these issues? I haven't heard much about him, but assume he'll need to step forward in the next couple of years.

[senkiri]

This is a purely speculative post, but I started thinking outside the box... If this is really about to go down, I agree with the previous posters who argue that the ACC does better being proactive than waiting and sorting through the remains of whatever is left when the Big10/Pac12/SEC are done making their moves and reacting then.

Most speculation seems to point to us going after current Big East teams. Any reason, other than geography, the ACC couldn't look to add the teams in the Big 12 that are going to be left in the cold by the SEC/Pac-12?

Might be interesting if we convinced Texas to join the ACC by allowing them to keep the Long Horn Network without strings (given that the Pac12 seems to have rules placing some limitations/conditions on the network if Texas joins) and added Kansas and Baylor as well. I think Kansas and Baylor are more attractive than some of the current schools under discussion even without Texas. Assuming the ACC got all 3 schools, it could then make a strong push to add Pitt, or if they want to wait for a possible Big10 offer, Syracuse. Call it the Atlantic Coast and Plains Conference or Atlantic and Gulf Coasts Conference. Eh, I will leave the naming to someone else, but you get the idea.

Travel would be a bear, but seems like thats going to hold true for at least the future Pac-16 and even the current Big East with the addition of TCU as well. The basketball however would be awesome and preserve the ACC (ACPC?) as the nation's premier basketball super-conference. And football would be pretty good as well, certainly better than adding residual Big East schools like Louisville and Rutgers. And being pro-active might convince those ACC schools most vulnerable to being poached by other conferences that they should stay put...

Anyway, just an idea...

[Dev11]

I think Kansas and Baylor are more attractive than some of the current schools under discussion even without Texas.

I understand Kansas because of basketball, but why Baylor? They are not generally competitive in either revenue sport and captivate (I think) little interest even in their own state.