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  1. #221
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I didn't mention metropolitan areas. Or urban areas. Or cities beside other nearby cities. I said Raleigh had more people than Cincinnati. It does. What part of my sentence was factually incorrect?
    I agree with your larger point; ACC areas are growing fast.
    But at the same time, I think Mal has a point that it's a little disingenuous to just pull the populations of the cities proper. Boston proper, for example, is smaller than Charlotte proper, but the metropolitan areas are ~4.5 million vs. ~1.7 million, respectively. To claim that Charlotte is a larger, more major city that Boston would be crazy, in my opinion. It also has a lot to do with city histories; Boston proper would be much larger if it had the history of annexing surrounding cities, as some other cities have done (cough*new york*cough).

    But, to your point, I'm sure metro Charlotte is growing faster than metro Boston.

  2. #222
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    Quote Originally Posted by DueBlevil View Post
    I agree with your larger point; ACC areas are growing fast.
    But at the same time, I think Mal has a point that it's a little disingenuous to just pull the populations of the cities proper. Boston proper, for example, is smaller than Charlotte proper, but the metropolitan areas are ~4.5 million vs. ~1.7 million, respectively. To claim that Charlotte is a larger, more major city that Boston would be crazy, in my opinion. It also has a lot to do with city histories; Boston proper would be much larger if it had the history of annexing surrounding cities, as some other cities have done (cough*new york*cough).

    But, to your point, I'm sure metro Charlotte is growing faster than metro Boston.
    My point relative to Raleigh simply was to show an example of a formerly sleepy southern city that has exploded in population over the last two decades. Be honest now, how many people not living in the area know that the city of Raleigh has more people than the city of St. Louis or Pittsburgh?

    Just blows my mind. The good side is we get an NHL team. The bad side is we have to build a new school every three weeks.

  3. #223
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    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    My point relative to Raleigh simply was to show an example of a formerly sleepy southern city that has exploded in population over the last two decades. Be honest now, how many people not living in the area know that the city of Raleigh has more people than the city of St. Louis or Pittsburgh?
    Well, there are two separate things here. The "Raleigh > St Louis" thing, while technically true, isn't really relevant, for reasons mentioned by DueBevil. But the Raleigh metro area is still growing fast - and actually, you can make your statement stronger. Raleigh is the fastest growing metro area of ANY major metro area in the U.S over the last 10 years, tied with Las Vegas (I'll define "major" as in the top 100 or so). Charlotte's up there too of course, so that is an interesting point to consider in the conference expansion thing I hadn't thought of before, and something I'd be selling if I were the ACC.

    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    If we go to 4 16 team leagues, the schools that have to worry are Baylor, Iowa St., TCU, South Florida, Cincinnati, and K-State. Everyone else will be just fine at the end of this still speculative game of musical chairs. Only one school might burst through, and that's BYU.
    Yeah, good call. I think the fear expressed earlier of Duke becoming irrelevant is silly - I understand it's mostly about football, but Duke's brand and academics are so incredibly strong that we form a bit of an exception to that. Any thoughts on Memphis or UCF, though?

  4. #224
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Yeah, good call. I think the fear expressed earlier of Duke becoming irrelevant is silly - I understand it's mostly about football, but Duke's brand and academics are so incredibly strong that we form a bit of an exception to that. Any thoughts on Memphis or UCF, though?
    Strong academics is no guarantee of anything. The rest of whatever conference we are a part of will not make money off the fact that duke is a strong university.
    9f

  5. #225
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    New York, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    Well, there are two separate things here. The "Raleigh > St Louis" thing, while technically true, isn't really relevant, for reasons mentioned by DueBevil. But the Raleigh metro area is still growing fast - and actually, you can make your statement stronger. Raleigh is the fastest growing metro area of ANY major metro area in the U.S over the last 10 years, tied with Las Vegas (I'll define "major" as in the top 100 or so). Charlotte's up there too of course, so that is an interesting point to consider in the conference expansion thing I hadn't thought of before, and something I'd be selling if I were the ACC.
    I wouldn't buy it (pun intended).

    Not that I don't buy Jim's overall point (or yours Wander), but I don't think the size of metropolitan areas, cities proper, towns, villages, counties or however you want to slice a population matters a heck of a lot in college sports.

    The way I see it, it all goes back to alumni bases. Raleigh and Charlotte can grow all they want, but the ACC schools in the area won't grow population wise (within reason) and so graduating classes won't (within reason). What I'm getting at is if Raleigh grows and grows but the universities don't, then we're talking about transplanted people moving to the area which may or may not mean an increase in ACC following. More likely than not, these people will continue supporting their previous universities. And more importantly if Raleigh/Charlotte expand, they may get more pro sports teams which would begin to create problems a la DC, Boston, NYC, Philly, etc. regarding college sports following.

    Yes, the ACC region is growing faster relative to other areas of the country. However, I doubt transplanted fans are going to just shed their previous allegiances and start cheering for NC State (for example) just because they move to the Raleigh area. And with these new TV channels and the internet, they don't have to.

    As others have discussed, I believe the alumni bases will drive the school's (and conference's) following. To be sure, there will be other factors as well especially quality of product on field/court/rink/etc. But the alumni and students drive it IMHO.

    It doesn't hurt to have a growing population in ACC territory. But I'm not sure it's a big enough positive to bolster our conference's durability.

    - Chillin
    Last edited by ChillinDuke; 09-07-2011 at 10:19 PM. Reason: Clarity

  6. #226
    Quote Originally Posted by Class of '94 View Post
    The Big East going after Kansas and Kansas St would be an excellent move for that conference. I know Kansas and K-State aren't necessarily great football programs; but they are football programs nonethelessp; and it would push the conference closer to having 12 football playing schools. But inaddition and more importantly, they would add to very strong basketball programs to the conference, which would cement the Big East IMO as the best college basketball conference in the country. And with Kansas and K-State in the fold, it might allow the Big East to negotiate more lucrative tv contracts because of it. I know that apparently football is the driving force behind increased TV revenues; but I have to think that a conference with so many basketball heavyweights would still be attractive to ESPN and CBS. What do you guys think?
    Kansas State has made the NCAA basketball tournament a whopping 5 times in the last 20 years. Barely squeaking in two of those years. Average seed = 8. As a KU fan, please don't lump our basketball teams together.

    I hate to say it, but states like Kansas and Iowa really should not have more than one BCS school. Missouri is twice the size and only has Mizzou. (Which is all the more hilarious in our eyes: Only large university in a decent-sized state, direct access to two large metro areas, and unbelievable mediocrity year after year.)

  7. #227
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    Quote Originally Posted by A-Tex Devil View Post
    I'll call my shot now -- even if they go undefeated and beat Alabama by 40 in the Sugar Bowl in January, Boise St. will NEVER be in a major conference.
    100% agreed.

    Except for the fact that Boise St. will be kept out of the Sugar Bowl because they are not in a major conference and the BCS is a bunch of bull droppings because they aren't smart enough to figure out that everyone in the @#$@#$ country wants to see a @@#@#$# playoff and that everyone in the @#$@#$ country will pay a @#$@#$ load of money to see the @#$#@$ playoff.

    But I digress.
    Roy, be a man. Accept responsibility and resign.

  8. #228
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    Philly
    Just to throw an added variable into the mix concerning population and relevance of a city, here's the list of top TV markets straight from Neilsen (including the exact number of TV homes in each). The list is a year old (updated through 2009-10), but there generally aren't any drastic changes at the top from year to year. I'll list the top 10 plus any others that I noticed that were mentioned in the last page or so along with any position changes from '09 to '10

    1. New York
    2. Los Angeles
    3. Chicago
    4. Philadelphia
    5. Dallas/Ft. Worth
    6. San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose
    7. Boston
    8. Atlanta
    9. DC
    10. Houston
    ...
    11. Detroit
    15. Minneapolis/St. Paul
    18. Cleveland/Akron -1
    21. St. Louis
    23. Pittsburgh
    24. Charlotte
    26. Raleigh/Durham +1
    33. Cincinnati +1
    42. Las Vegas
    52. Buffalo -1

    These numbers seem to bear out both sides of the argument so far. With fewer established suburbs than Northeast and Midwest cities, Raleigh's TV influence (and by extension advertising influence) is still lagging behind many cities that it is technically bigger than. It is, however one of the few cities that moved up a spot. In fact, of the markets ranking 7-30, only 2, Raleigh and Charlotte, increased by 20K+ TV homes. Of coarse, those trends can change at any time (just ask Las Vegas) but things are looking up for NC markets right now.
    Pratt '09
    GO DUKE!

  9. #229
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Strong academics is no guarantee of anything. The rest of whatever conference we are a part of will not make money off the fact that duke is a strong university.
    This is wrong. Not every conference is a gimmick created by ESPN to fill airtime. In some leagues, like the Big Ten and the ACC, the conference members cooperate extensively on research projects and funding. That reason alone would make Duke an asset for those leagues.

  10. #230
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I didn't mention metropolitan areas. Or urban areas. Or cities beside other nearby cities. I said Raleigh had more people than Cincinnati. It does. What part of my sentence was factually incorrect?
    No need to be so defensive. If that's the criteria we're going on, then let's note that San Jose and San Antonio and Phoenix all have more people within their city limits than any one town in the entire ACC, Boston, Miami and Atlanta included. C'mon, no one talks about population in other than metropolitan area terms. It's useless.

    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    I also stand by my larger point. I'm talking about the future, 10 years from now, 20 years from now. People have been moving South for decades and I am unaware of any projections that this massive population shift is going to stop anytime soon. Look at the population declines of Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Cleveland, Detroit and numerous other rust-belt cities.
    And I'll stand by my larger points - the upper Midwest still has a lot more people, and the Big Ten's members have vastly more substantial current fanbases and alumni bases than ACC schools as a general rule. And the upper Midwest only has one major collegiate athletic conference vying for people's attention - you can add another million people to South Carolina, but the positive effect on the "follows Clemson sports" total is going to be halved, at best, as the Gamecocks will siphon off their share. Same goes to an even greater degree with Atlanta and UGA, and the same goes with any town in Florida and UF. They may eventually reach parity, but we're talking about the near- to mid-term future here at most when it comes to these sorts of decisions. By the time there are as many people on the Atlantic coast not following SEC teams as there are people in Ohio, Michigan and Illinois, it'll be so hot there everyone will be moving back North, anyway!

    Not to mention that it takes a long time for migrating populations to fully pick up the local teams as their own, especially in this day and age. My aunt and uncle recently moved from suburban Cleveland to Birmingham. Do you think they, or their kids, give a rat's rear end about Alabama/Auburn, or will anytime soon? No. They still follow Ohio State and will for the forseeable future. And in our modern media environment, they can do so. They can practically block out the entirety of the Crimson Tide universe through the miracles of satellite TV and the internet. Only if my cousins' children grow up in Alabama will that change, and then only maybe. I have a friend who grew up in Ohio but (a) went to Duke, (b) married a girl who went to Kentucky, and (c) moved to Georgia. What football team does he still religiously follow, and have his sons rooting for? Hint: they're not in the SEC, and they didn't lose to Richmond last weekend.

  11. #231
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    This is wrong. Not every conference is a gimmick created by ESPN to fill airtime. In some leagues, like the Big Ten and the ACC, the conference members cooperate extensively on research projects and funding. That reason alone would make Duke an asset for those leagues.
    Explaining why there are no strong academic schools in the non-BCS conferences....do you not think Rice would die for an offer from a BCS conference? they're only 8 spots lower in the almighty rankings.....according to you every conference should be dying to admit rice....too bad they don't have a better football team....maybe its the 2 bowls in the last 20 years....Duke could absolutely end up the same way

    what's different about duke is they already have a ton of fans....and those basketball fans probably aren't going anywhere.....but its silly to think Duke can scrape by just because it has strong academics.....
    9f

  12. #232
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    If the ACC "stands pat" then the SEC will poach a team or two, the Big Ten might grab Maryland and then we'll be adding WVU, Louisville and South Florida. That's the major risk - you wind up with a conference full of leftovers that gets the ACC dis-invited from having an automatic BCS berth.

    Eat or be eaten...
    Have to agree with Duvall. I can just as easily say adding the teams is as likely to bring about the demise of the conference. I see jumping to 16 as a mistake only a few years down the road, not just for the ACC but all conferences...just not sure we can see past the fears of tomorrow.

    although it sounds like we both see the stupidity of the situation, just have a different perspective of handling it. heck I still think 8 team conferences are best and the first move with 16 team conferences will be to plug them into two divisions so maybe I'll ultimately like it lol.
    Last edited by Scorp4me; 09-07-2011 at 11:38 PM.

  13. #233
    Join Date
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    Lynchburg, VA
    The crisis escalates! The Big 12 is now resorting to hostage taking and un-American behavior. So says A&M President R. Bowen Loften:

    "We are being held hostage right now," Loftin said of being forced to stay in the Big 12. "Essentially, we're being told that you must stay here against your will and we think that really flies in the face of what makes us Americans for example and makes us free people."
    Guess he hasn't heard that freedom isn't free.

  14. #234
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    Steamboat Springs, CO

    Talking I Don't See the ACC Breaking Up

    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    If the ACC "stands pat" then the SEC will poach a team or two, the Big Ten might grab Maryland and then we'll be adding WVU, Louisville and South Florida. That's the major risk - you wind up with a conference full of leftovers that gets the ACC dis-invited from having an automatic BCS berth.

    Eat or be eaten...
    Quote Originally Posted by superdave View Post
    But what if a school thinks the ACC will collapse? Think George Costanza running over little kids to get out the door first when someone yelled "fire". Would Swofford be able to hold things together during that situation? He better have an offer of an up-graded ACC, right?
    I, for one, believe the ACC is a very solid conference not in danger of losing any of its members. The seven founders have a deep and long-seated love for the conference. In addition, Virginia Tech, which palpably lusted for ACC membership for 50 years, and Georgia Tech, who left the SEC 40 years ago because of its gladiator mentality and lack of academic focus, are likely going anywhere else. Uh, that's nine teams. Miami loves the ACC -- "our peer schools," says Pres. Shalala. FSU could fit in anywhere -- I don't see the Seminoles getting an offer from the SEC (Florida would object), and I don't see how that gives them an easier route to a national championship. That leaves Boston College -- also a school with high admission standards -- which doesn't seem to be going anywhere.

    Now, I'm the guy who believes there are a lot of "Purists" (my definition) in college athletics, who go misty-eyed at their conference rivalries. I also believe there is a lot of loyalty among the ADs, because college athletics is all about loyalty. And I believe both qualities are strongly present among the ACC schools.

    Also, I don't think either the SEC or Big Ten would "raid" another conference. It would need to receive an application, as the Big Ten did from thoroughly disgruntled Nebraska, and the PAC-10 did from frustrated (and somewhat scared) Colorado. Texas A&M is begging to be let into the SEC. (And, of course, no bias towards the Aggies, but all of college sportsdom is hoping they will be left as a sobbing mass of protoplasm on the doorstep of the SEC.)

    Now, this is my opinion.

    sagegrouse
    'You know I drafted similar message this AM, and it's not here. I must have let it time out on the "Preview Post" screen.'

  15. #235
    Join Date
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    Austin, TX
    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    The crisis escalates! The Big 12 is now resorting to hostage taking and un-American behavior. So says A&M President R. Bowen Loften:



    Guess he hasn't heard that freedom isn't free.
    This is such hilarious BS on A&M's part. And frankly, the SEC letting them twist in the wind a bit is quite entertaining.

    Dan Beebe, who everyone agrees is a below average conference commissioner, sent a letter to the SEC on September 2 saying that the Big 12 and its member schools wouldn't stand in the way of A&M's departure. The problem is that while the schools agreed not stand in the way of A&M moving, they never agreed to release claims as the letter implies. Beebe needs to get fired for that letter but I am not holding my breath.

    Anyway, back on topic. A&M and the SEC are now claiming that initially one school (Baylor) and now as many as all 9 are holding up the process by reneging/disclaiming legal releases they never agreed to. Why in the name of Toomer's Corner (RIP) would a school release its rights? How can A&M with a straight face even expect a school release it's rights to claims without consideration on top of the exit fees already due - much less try to vilify them in the court of public opinion for not signing said release? It's a continuing running joke of a PR department in College Station.

    As for the SEC, if Baylor et al don't have a case, they need to drop their contingency and let A&M in come over and be done with this. If Baylor has a case, more power to them. Enforce your rights Bears. That seems like American behavior, R. Bowen.

    I will leave you with this quote from Loftin last summer:

    “As the weekend concluded and we entered into Monday, however, the TV networks stepped up and indicated they would invest significantly in the 10 remaining members of the Big 12. And the Big 12 made a significant financial commitment to keep Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Texas in the conference. At the end of the day, we kept our word, which as an Aggie, is extremely important.” – R. Bowen Loftin – June 16, 2010

  16. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    but its silly to think Duke can scrape by just because it has strong academics.....
    I said Duke's brand and academics. And although I didn't say this in the original post, brand (ie, basketball stuff) is by far the more important of the two. But academics does matter. You're right, of course it doesn't guarantee anything, but it is a factor in our favor.

  17. #237
    Quote Originally Posted by SCMatt33 View Post
    Just to throw an added variable into the mix concerning population and relevance of a city, here's the list of top TV markets straight from Neilsen (including the exact number of TV homes in each). The list is a year old (updated through 2009-10), but there generally aren't any drastic changes at the top from year to year. I'll list the top 10 plus any others that I noticed that were mentioned in the last page or so along with any position changes from '09 to '10

    1. New York
    2. Los Angeles
    3. Chicago
    4. Philadelphia
    5. Dallas/Ft. Worth
    6. San Francisco/Oakland/San Jose
    7. Boston
    8. Atlanta
    9. DC
    10. Houston
    ...
    11. Detroit
    15. Minneapolis/St. Paul
    18. Cleveland/Akron -1
    21. St. Louis
    23. Pittsburgh
    24. Charlotte
    26. Raleigh/Durham +1
    33. Cincinnati +1
    42. Las Vegas
    52. Buffalo -1

    These numbers seem to bear out both sides of the argument so far. With fewer established suburbs than Northeast and Midwest cities, Raleigh's TV influence (and by extension advertising influence) is still lagging behind many cities that it is technically bigger than. It is, however one of the few cities that moved up a spot. In fact, of the markets ranking 7-30, only 2, Raleigh and Charlotte, increased by 20K+ TV homes. Of coarse, those trends can change at any time (just ask Las Vegas) but things are looking up for NC markets right now.

    Do you pay more (ESPN, Fox Sports) relative to population for a growing TV market, fast growing TV markets, as you would pay a higher multiple of earnings for stock in a company whose earnings are growing rapidly, year on year? Probably, if you are working on a ten year deal. Pittsburgh's metro area is more than twice the population of Raleigh-Cary, based on the 2010 census. But, its population declined by 3% between 2000 and 2010, whereas Raleigh-Cary's increased nearly 42%. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_o...tistical_Areas

    Interesting to note that Durham-Chapel Hill is over half a million.

  18. #238
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    Quote Originally Posted by mph View Post
    The crisis escalates! The Big 12 is now resorting to hostage taking and un-American behavior. So says A&M President R. Bowen Loften:



    Guess he hasn't heard that freedom isn't free.

    It's America, baby, gots to pay to play. If A & M doesn't understand that, they're in for a rude awakening in the SEC.

    Heh.
    Roy, be a man. Accept responsibility and resign.

  19. #239
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Explaining why there are no strong academic schools in the non-BCS conferences....do you not think Rice would die for an offer from a BCS conference? they're only 8 spots lower in the almighty rankings.....according to you every conference should be dying to admit rice....too bad they don't have a better football team....maybe its the 2 bowls in the last 20 years....Duke could absolutely end up the same way

    what's different about duke is they already have a ton of fans....and those basketball fans probably aren't going anywhere.....but its silly to think Duke can scrape by just because it has strong academics.....
    And now you have completely changed your argument. Earlier you said that "[r]he rest of whatever conference we are a part of will not make money off the fact that duke is a strong university" - a claim that is simply false, as ACC schools are making money off of Duke's academic strengths as we speak (and vice versa, of course). That gives Duke *an* asset in which some leagues may be interested, one of several. Other schools have different assets.

  20. #240
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    Quote Originally Posted by Duvall View Post
    And now you have completely changed your argument. Earlier you said that "[r]he rest of whatever conference we are a part of will not make money off the fact that duke is a strong university" - a claim that is simply false, as ACC schools are making money off of Duke's academic strengths as we speak (and vice versa, of course). That gives Duke *an* asset in which some leagues may be interested, one of several. Other schools have different assets.
    I missed the part where I changed my argument....

    me: conferences don't make money off dukes academics
    you: yes they do! duke will always have a place because of strong academics
    me: here's a counterexample showing a university with strong academics and reasonable athletics who doesn't have a place in a BCS conference

    the point being: since we have an example of a strong university in a power conference, and a strong university NOT in a power conference, there must be some differentiator besides academics....its duke's basketball brand......and IF that were to go away, duke would have a problem, regardless of academic reputation....but I don't think duke basketball is going anywhere even post-K...
    9f

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