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  1. #121
    Quote Originally Posted by fan345678 View Post
    Auburn and Bama would probably both be moved to the east, with Missouri and Texas moving into the west.
    geez...my math is off...brain fried by fantasy draft and too late to edit the post, apparently

  2. #122
    Quote Originally Posted by johnb View Post
    Missouri wouldn't want to be left in the cold, but I'm not sure it sees itself as adequately southern or adequately felonious.
    Missouri does border Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee and the St. Louis and Kansas City tv markets are pretty substantial.

  3. #123
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    Another Definitive Denial from VaTech

    Quote Originally Posted by Newton_14 View Post
    A&M might well be headed to the SEC by next week, but do not see VaTech going anywhere. They are not abandoning UVA to go to the SEC. The SEC will get a partner for A&M to make 14 but I don't believe it will be Va Tech nor do I believe it will be Clemson.
    http://www.dailypress.com/sports/tee...,4697023.story

    I'm not sure if it is worth anything, or not, but there is nothing nearly as strong coming out of Clemson. The carefully worded statements from TigerTown are, essentially, "We support the ACC as currently constituted..."

    There may or may not be truth to the UF/UGA/USC blockade of FSU/CLEM/GaTech. But if FSU does get an invite and CLEM is also offered as part of an expansion to 16 teams, I think Clemson bolts. And that is 100% uninformed speculation.

  4. #124

    Not going to happen

    Quote Originally Posted by laxbluedevil View Post
    Looks like Texas A and M and maybe VA Tech could be joining SEC very soon, as early as next week? 14-16 team leagues are worse than 12. Please see and participate in the "A new ACC" thread to discuss how all this affects the ACC, and what the future holds. There I wrote that Penn State TRIED TO JOIN the ACC, tried to join the Big East, then tried to from a new eastern all sports league with the likes of BC, Syracuse, Maryland, etc., and only when all of that failed did they reluctantly join the B10/11/12 in desperation to avoid being "left out in the cold" according to AD Paterno. A new eastern Atlantic League with Penn State, Syracuse, UConn, BC, UMD, UVA, Duke, UNC, GT, FSU, could be the best 10 school league ever, dominating half the US population and media and money, while scheduling home and home in hoops and playing all others in football which is the ONLY way to determine a true league champ.
    No one, not even Penn State, is going to leave the Big 10 given the money making machine Jim Delaney has created for that conference with the Big 10 Network and its TV deals. No one.

    And 10 team leagues are a thing of the past. 12 is the bare minimum, and the sooner we all realize that we're moving toward a "Super 64" with 4 16 team conferences, the better it will be.

    Duke's in a better spot that Baylor, Texas Tech, K State, Iowa State or Wake, but because our football program is so weak and facilities so subpar compared to other BCS schools, Duke needs to be proactive in its thinking here, lest it get left in the cold. Could Duke Basketball survive and thrive as an independant? Maybe. I don't think we want to find out though.

    Even being in Illinois, I don't much care for the thought of Duke joining the Big 10, but if the offer comes, it might be too good to refuse. Safe haven in a league that's profitability is through the roof? We'd have to think long and hard about it, lest we be stuck in a conference that's the left overs of the ACC and Big East.

  5. #125
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    Must read....

    The real reason the Aggies don't like the Longhorn Network. This is a reconstructed conversation, but my knowledge of Bill Byrne (Aggie AD) and DeLoss Dodds (UT AD) leads me to believe that it went down very similarly to this.

    For some context..... LHN was originally supposed to be a partnered property between UT and A&M. Oh..... and Kyle Field has had some serious bat guano and cricket problems the last 5 years.

  6. #126
    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    No one, not even Penn State, is going to leave the Big 10 given the money making machine Jim Delaney has created for that conference with the Big 10 Network and its TV deals. No one.

    And 10 team leagues are a thing of the past. 12 is the bare minimum, and the sooner we all realize that we're moving toward a "Super 64" with 4 16 team conferences, the better it will be.

    Duke's in a better spot that Baylor, Texas Tech, K State, Iowa State or Wake, but because our football program is so weak and facilities so subpar compared to other BCS schools, Duke needs to be proactive in its thinking here, lest it get left in the cold. Could Duke Basketball survive and thrive as an independant? Maybe. I don't think we want to find out though.

    Even being in Illinois, I don't much care for the thought of Duke joining the Big 10, but if the offer comes, it might be too good to refuse. Safe haven in a league that's profitability is through the roof? We'd have to think long and hard about it, lest we be stuck in a conference that's the left overs of the ACC and Big East.


    This season will settle the matter of how (perennially) weak our Football Program is. Cut does have everything in place facilities wise for practice and player development. The stadium is pretty awful, but we do have the outlines of a workable plan to substantially renovate the stadium and increase capacity. Duke and UNC would move, if at all, together, don't you think?

  7. #127

    Football and Duke&UNC

    Quote Originally Posted by formerdukeathlete View Post
    This season will settle the matter of how (perennially) weak our Football Program is. Cut does have everything in place facilities wise for practice and player development. The stadium is pretty awful, but we do have the outlines of a workable plan to substantially renovate the stadium and increase capacity. Duke and UNC would move, if at all, together, don't you think?
    One season isn't going to matter in football, and at some level, football's never going to matter enough at Duke for these discussions. We're never going to have the draw that schools with much bigger student bodies and alumni bases will have. We aren't going to fill a 50,000 seat stadium, let alone 70K or more. Showing that we can be competative -- like Vandy or NW -- will help, but our value to a conference is basketball and academics. At some level, the trip to China and Dubai was some nice muscle flexing, showing the draw and financial resources of our basketball program.

    I think Duke and UNC are joined at the hip, but I worry that means we're joined to NC State too. If we are linked to State *and* Carolina, then Duke's only destination is whatever 4th 16 team conference is made from the leftovers of the Big East, ACC and Big XII after the Big 10, SEC and Pac 12 have had their pick.

  8. #128
    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    No one, not even Penn State, is going to leave the Big 10 given the money making machine Jim Delaney has created for that conference with the Big 10 Network and its TV deals. No one.
    No! Don't go there! See the "A New ACC" thread and tremble in fear, Chicago 1995. That way madness lies. Let's not allow a couple of posters who think there's some real world possibility of a PSU unicorn leaving the Big Ten to be the lynchpin football program of a mythical new eastern seaboard conference take another thread down that rabbit hole.

  9. #129
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    Here are the realistic outcomes of the movement we may see in 2011 (I don't want to predict out too much in the future) to begin play in either 2012 or 2013. Obviously some combination of these things can happen, but I've tried to distill them into the most distinct scenarios. Whether mentioned or not, all scenarios assume A&M --> SEC

    1. SEC takes A&M. That's it.
    2. SEC takes A&M and Big XII replaces it with one team (likely BYU)
    3. SEC takes A&M and Mizzou, leading UT, TTech, OU, OSU to head to the Pac 12 and make it a Pac 16.
    4. SEC takes A&M and an ACC team. ACC team poaches Big East (likely Pitt), Big 12 poaches one team (likely BYU)
    5. OU in the next few weeks decides it wants to force Texas' hand and move to the Pac 12 with teams mentioned in #3 (this is similar to #3, but Mizzou doesn't have an SEC invite.
    6. SEC takes Texas A&M, Mizzou and 2 ACC teams. Not sure what this might trigger. Maybe armageddon, maybe simple replacement, killing Big East in process.
    7. SEC takes Texas A&M and 3 ACC teams. Again, no idea what happens in this scenario, but this is the least likely in my opinion.

    Out of all of this, there are 2 thing I am sure of: (1) the teams currently in the Big Ten, Pac 12 and SEC aren't going anywhere and (2) Texas isn't going to the SEC. And I'm 90% sure the core 8 teams of the ACC aren't going anywhere.

  10. #130
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    There is little question that conference realignment is coming. The question has to be will there be 4 or 5 super conferences left when all is said and done.

    The Pac whatever, Big Ten (with more than ten teams), and SEC will survive for sure. The question has to be if they will stick with 12 teams or go to 14 or 16. Many seem to think 16 is the most likely eventual size. If it is, I think there will end up only being 4 major conferences. Will the ACC or the Big East or the Big 12 be the 4th? The ACC would seem to have the inside track, likely absorbing some Big East teams.

    If they stick with 12 or 14 teams, I think 5 super conferences will survive and the ACC is certainly safe. Whether the Big 12 or Big East are the 5th conference, it is hard to say. I suspect the Big East has the best chance of survival here.

    -Jason "I think we will see a move to 14 by the SEC and then the Pac Ten will go to 16 and that will start a move to 4 16 team conferences in the next 4-5 years" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  11. #131
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    Quote Originally Posted by fan345678 View Post
    geez...my math is off...brain fried by fantasy draft and too late to edit the post, apparently
    Yeah, so to have seven teams apiece, only one school goes east. Not only is Auburn the easternmost, they have an intense rivalry with Georgia, and Florida used to be one of their fixed opponents when the format was still two fixed opponents in the opposite division. You make Bama their fixed opponent.

    It's problematic. Not only would you lose Auburn-LSU, Auburn-OM, Auburn-MSU, but Bama loses Tennessee as their fixed opponent in the east.

    The SEC has pocket aces with a flop of A25 unsuited, and they're sitting on the button. If I'm Slive, I wait for everyone else to bet before I do. Their present situation is just too good to mess it up by changing the game to Omaha in mid-hand. I think my poker analogy just broke down.

    They can even afford to let A&M twist in the wind for a year. Think A&M would get their feelings hurt and refuse the life preserver a year later? I don't think so.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
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  12. #132
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    Quote Originally Posted by Chicago 1995 View Post
    12 is the bare minimum, and the sooner we all realize that we're moving toward a "Super 64" with 4 16 team conferences, the better it will be.
    I share this line of thinking... but what ARE the Super 64? (I assume that Notre Dame and BYU ultimately stay independent in football.)

    Right now there are 12 teams in the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, and Pac-12, plus 8 Big East football teams and 10 Big XII teams. That's 66. Next year TCU will be the 67th.

    Most people will agree that the teams in the Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC aren't leaving their conferences. That's 36 teams right there, including Utah, which lucked out big time.

    I believe OlympicFan posted a conference power hierarchy in the ACC thread, which I generally agree with, except that I would rank the SEC 1st and the Big Ten 2nd. I have no doubt that the money favors the Big Ten, but if we're talking conference expansion based on football, the SEC will act before the Big Ten, and more forcefully. (Ultimately, it may not matter. Aside from Texas, and maybe Maryland, I don't think the SEC and the Big Ten would be interested in the same schools.)

    Texas A&M is headed to the SEC. That's 37. I have no idea what the SEC will do long term, but they should add Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. (I'm sure that Texas state politics will factor heavily in this decision, but that's what the rest of this thread is for.)

    If the SEC is stupid and looks eastward rather than westward, then the Pac-12 will grab Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. They have to. Because of geography they have the fewest options, and would prefer killing the Big XII over elevating 4 more Mountain West teams. That's 40. I'm not sure what Texas Tech brings to the table there; Missouri is a much more attractive 16th team. So that's 41.

    Assuming that the Pac-12 acts first to get to 16, and that Texas is uninterested in following A&M, the SEC could invade the ACC for Clemson, FSU, and Maryland. (Not a given, but more feasible than other ACC options.) That's 44.

    The Big Ten's conservatism will result in fewer available teams by the time it decides to expand. Assuming Missouri and Maryland are already gone, the best available teams are Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, and... Rutgers? I don't know. Pickings are already looking slim. That's 48: three 16-team megaconferences. (And the Big Ten can start calling itself the Big Sixteen, before a horde of math professors understandably kills the university presidents.)

    The Big XII and the Big East (football version) are dead. This leaves the remaining 9 ACC teams to pick up the Eastern Time Zone scraps: Connecticut, South Florida, Louisville, Cincinnati. That's 13 ACC teams, 61 power teams total. Filling in the last 3 is where it gets ugly. The 6 unclaimed teams are TCU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Baylor. I doubt the ACC is that interested in any of them; elevating, say, Memphis, Temple, and Central Florida would make more geographic sense. That's 64.

    If you read this and think, no way Maryland does that, you're missing the point. You can disagree; I don't care. But... if you read this and conclude that this is a messed-up situation, not because tradition is being abandoned but because these grabs for 16 seem random and nonsensical, well, that IS the point. You can create any number of alternative speculations where the ACC is proactive so that it doesn't have to add 7(!) new teams, and the 2 big Texas schools bury the hatchet, and the Big Ten gives its Nebraska outpost some company. But what you should realize from all this is that everything revolves around (1) which conference acts first, and (2) what Texas wants to do.

  13. #133
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    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    Texas A&M is headed to the SEC. That's 37. I have no idea what the SEC will do long term, but they should add Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. (I'm sure that Texas state politics will factor heavily in this decision, but that's what the rest of this thread is for.)
    There are 2 scenarios I see in the superconference alignment, both hinging on Texas.

    The more likely scenario is that Texas goes with OU, Tech and OSU to Pac 12 -- 16 teams there.

    SEC picks up Va Tech, NC State and Mizzou (along with A&M) -- 16 teams there

    Big Ten picks up Pitt, KU, KSU and ND -- 16 teams there

    ACC survives and adds Syracuse, Louisville, Rutgers and TCU

    That leaves BYU, Iowa St., USF and Baylor on the outside looking in, but BYU will be the new Notre Dame. (edited to add -- not in success, but as an independent that can schedule, etc.)

    You can switch a few of those teams up, but you get the idea.

    The second scenario, if Texas gets greedy, is to start a brand new national conference with ND, OU, Tech, OSU and pieces of the Big East and ACC (and unrealistic as it might be, don't think it's not being considered). "We're Texas" after all.

    I do believe ND will end up somewhere if the super conference scenario occurs. Only because I be there will be 10 game conference schedules and not many non-conference games.

  14. #134
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    I don't know what to think, but I'm gradually coming to the conclusion that it's best for Duke if this happens sooner rather than later. Even if David Cutcliffe turns out to be David Copperfield and we go 7-5, 8-4 for an extended stretch, we still aren't an attractive gate draw or television property in football. And that's best case scenario. We need to sneak into the Cartel of 64 based on our basketball strength and our historical ties to State and Carolina. If this happens in ten years instead of the next few, and Mike Krzyzewski has retired, and we're going a respectable but unimpressive 22-11 in MBB or something like that, we run the risk of becoming completely irrelevant. I wish we lived in a culture where WBB and LX and our other sports were more valued, but we don't. So if there's going to be a Lord of the Flies-style musical chairs scramble, Duke probably needs it to happen while Krzyzewski is still around. Otherwise it's time to get out of the dirty business and make like Chicago.

    A movie is not about what it's about; it's about how it's about it.
    ---Roger Ebert


    Some questions cannot be answered
    Who’s gonna bury who
    We need a love like Johnny, Johnny and June
    ---Over the Rhine

  15. #135
    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I don't know what to think, but I'm gradually coming to the conclusion that it's best for Duke if this happens sooner rather than later. Even if David Cutcliffe turns out to be David Copperfield and we go 7-5, 8-4 for an extended stretch, we still aren't an attractive gate draw or television property in football. And that's best case scenario. We need to sneak into the Cartel of 64 based on our basketball strength and our historical ties to State and Carolina. If this happens in ten years instead of the next few, and Mike Krzyzewski has retired, and we're going a respectable but unimpressive 22-11 in MBB or something like that, we run the risk of becoming completely irrelevant. I wish we lived in a culture where WBB and LX and our other sports were more valued, but we don't. So if there's going to be a Lord of the Flies-style musical chairs scramble, Duke probably needs it to happen while Krzyzewski is still around. Otherwise it's time to get out of the dirty business and make like Chicago.
    Duke BB revenue, plus FB revenue is above average last time I looked at the numbers among who would likely be "Cartel of 64." We may need a new Basketball arena going forward, but we can float that. Add respectability in Football. To the degree I feel a bit apprehensive about where we will end up after all expansion is said and done, its not about what we have to offer.

  16. #136
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    Quote Originally Posted by formerdukeathlete View Post
    duke bb revenue, plus fb revenue is above average last time i looked at the numbers among who would likely be "cartel of 64." we may need a new basketball arena going forward, but we can float that. Add respectability in football. To the degree i feel a bit apprehensive about where we will end up after all expansion is said and done, its not about what we have to offer.
    Heresy!
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  17. #137
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    Quote Originally Posted by throatybeard View Post
    I don't know what to think, but I'm gradually coming to the conclusion that it's best for Duke if this happens sooner rather than later. Even if David Cutcliffe turns out to be David Copperfield and we go 7-5, 8-4 for an extended stretch, we still aren't an attractive gate draw or television property in football. And that's best case scenario. We need to sneak into the Cartel of 64 based on our basketball strength and our historical ties to State and Carolina. If this happens in ten years instead of the next few, and Mike Krzyzewski has retired, and we're going a respectable but unimpressive 22-11 in MBB or something like that, we run the risk of becoming completely irrelevant. I wish we lived in a culture where WBB and LX and our other sports were more valued, but we don't. So if there's going to be a Lord of the Flies-style musical chairs scramble, Duke probably needs it to happen while Krzyzewski is still around. Otherwise it's time to get out of the dirty business and make like Chicago.
    I think how "good" you are in either football or basketball gets somewhat overrated in this conversation. It only matters to the extent that you generate good TV match-ups to up the value of a cable tv deal. At the end of the day, current teams in a conference only make marginally more money by adding new teams. Take the SEC. How much more money per year will teams like Florida and Alabama make from the addition of TA&M and someone like Mizzou, FSU, or Va Tech? It can't be more than 2-5 million per year, and I think that may be a pretty liberal number. I know the Pac-10 got a huge upgrade after becoming the Pac-12, but I think most of that was driven by their out of date deal, and less by the addition of Utah and Colorado. The marginal returns get lower after 12 teams as well, since there is the one time benefit of adding a championship game at 12. After that, you only get what a new team brings to the table, and that gets split more and more ways as you add more teams.

    The other side of it is looking at what will happen for teams competitively. Once you get past 12, do you really want to bring in teams that are going to regularly take championships from you for a couple million a year. When you add Texas A&M to the SEC, it isn't that big of a deal since they haven't been relevant on a BCS level in some time, but teams like Mizzou and Va Tech could threaten that dynamic in the SEC. Will they start winning more titles than Florida and Alabama? Probably not. But its not unreasonable to think that they will steal one every once in a while, and they are certainly good enough to be a spoiler year in and year out.

    The other thing that I believe doesn't get talked about as much as it should is the BCS cap of two teams per conference. Two teams out of twelve isn't that bad, but two out of 16 is something that will cause some hesitation when the extra 4 teams are good enough to compete for those spots. I think this dynamic creates a bit of a prisoners dilemma that could prevent conferences from going to 16 right away and could cause the major shift to be 5 14 team leagues instead of 4 16 team leagues. With 4 super conferences, the current BCS bowls could only be filled by increasing the conference limit, so it would be in the best interest of the 4 leagues expected to survive to allow this to happen. I don't know how the BCS works, but I assume that you would need at least 4 leagues to approve a move on this front. The problem is that there are three leagues who aren't guaranteed to survive a move to 4 superleagues. Even for the leagues that are guaranteed to survive such a move, it wouldn't necessarily be prudent for all of them to approve that measure if there aren't two leagues about to fold. With 6 auto bids, allowing three teams per league would allow one league (most likely the SEC) to take up half of the at large bids in a single year.

    The other issue is that in a few weeks, we could end up with three more BCS teams than we had 18 months ago, with Utah, TCU, and now possibly BYU. That would put the number of BCS football teams (including ND) at 69. I think with the attitude of most being one of survival, it becomes more likely that a 70th team gets added with minor realignment than 5 teams getting left out in the cold with massive realignment.
    Pratt '09
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  18. #138
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    Quote Originally Posted by formerdukeathlete View Post
    Duke BB revenue, plus FB revenue is above average last time I looked at the numbers among who would likely be "Cartel of 64." We may need a new Basketball arena going forward, but we can float that. Add respectability in Football. To the degree I feel a bit apprehensive about where we will end up after all expansion is said and done, its not about what we have to offer.
    We will probably get rid of the track around the football field and perhaps add other, more significant changes to Wade, but I don't see any changes to the guts of Cameron. Some tweaks around the edges, perhaps, but nothing major inside. I can't see Duke making more money with a bigger arena - donations to get into Cameron so far outstrip ticket sales now it wouldn't make sense.

    -jk

  19. #139
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    I didn't want to quote all of SCMatt's post, but in response to some of the questions he raised let me throw this out...

    If there is a move to 4 or 5 superconferences of 64-70 total teams, I think those conferences would decide there is no reason for them to continue to support all the little guys. They would secede from the NCAA and form their own national championship in football and basketball where they would split the money and not share it with all the other schools who contribute only marginally to the pie.

    If you are Texas, Michigan, UCLA, North Carolina, Notre Dame,Florida, and so on... why on Earth are you going to share any money with Temple, Central Michigan, Rice, San Diego St, or Hawaii? And that is just some of the bigger name among the also-rans -- why would you share with Arkansas St., Louisiana-Monroe, Ball St, or 200+ other teams who share in Division I Basketball tournament revenues?

    This is about maximizing money. Some of the ADs and Presidents are going to know that the best way to do that is to form super conferences and leave the insane rule book and bureaucracy of the NCAA behind.

    Among the things that will happen --
    • In football, they will form a 4 or 8 or maybe even 16-team college football playoff that will bring in hundreds of millions. They will have 20 or 30 other teams playing in bowls.
    • They will form their own basketball tournament. Sure, they won't have a few schools like Gonzaga, Butler, Xavier, and Temple in their tourney, but it won't take long for all the high quality recruits to stop going to those schools and start only attending schools with a chance to win the real national title among the super teams.
    • They will probably throw out the entire NCAA rule book and set up their own. My bet is that it will be a lot simpler.
    • They may decide the best way to curb cheating is to just break down and start paying players, at least a little bit. Heck, they may even decide to pay the players a lot as an inducement to keep them in school and produce better quality of play along with more established stars which should lead to higher TV ratings.
    • As for the other sports... like women's hoops, LAX, track, swimming, golf, and so on... I suspect the new super conferences would just stage their own national titles and tournaments in those sports too. Who knows, maybe by only involving the big institutions, there might be a bit more fan interest in those sports and they might come closer to breaking even.


    I could be wrong about this, I fully admit that. But, if maximum revenues are the goal, then this has to happen, right? Where is the logic in operating under old rules and old revenue sharing systems when you can break off and form your own rules and revenues? Can anyone make a monetary case for the power conferences remaining hitched to the old NCAA?

    -Jason "I am not wishing for this, but I am not sure it is such a bad thing either" Evans
    Don't ask me why, but my mother is making me Tweet. Says it will be good for my career. So, follow my ramblings, mostly on the film industry, @TVFilmTalk

  20. #140

    Va Tech

    I'm curious as to why there are still some that think Va Tech to the SEC will eventually happen? Considering that they had wanted to be in the ACC for years and was finally invited (thanks to some strong political pressure and intervention), I just don't see Va Tech leaving the ACC for the SEC unless the ACC dissolved. Moreover, they've been very definitive in their press releases that they are very happy and committed to the ACC. And as many have noted, the ACC academically is way more prestigious than the SEC; and I think Va Tech values that side of their ACC affiliation as well. Saying that, anything can happen obviously; And keep in mind that A&M appeared to pursue the SEC while Va Tech hasn't. The SEC would have to pursue Va Tech and if the SEC is image conscious, I think they'd have to be very careful in trying to get Va Tech.

    My hope is that the ACC becomes proactive and not reactive with conference expansion as a way of strengthening the league and protecting it from being raided by the SEC, the Big 10, or anyone else. Personally, I'd love to see them aggressively pursue Notre Dame again; and make some additional bold moves to help the conference since I, too, believe that 14-16 team superconferences are just a matter of time.

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