The only teams I think will get left out in the cold if things go sideways are Iowa St. and Baylor. I think the Big East will snap up the Kansas schools and Mizzou immediately, and Tech will end up somewhere.
This all hinges on whether Mizzou gets plucked by the SEC. If it doesn't, and if the Big XII can add a BYU or even a Colorado St. Or hell, exist with 9 teams, which I think is just fine. Texas is going to hold this conference together as long as it can.