Dodds' comments a couple of weeks ago basically calling out the Rose Bowl alliance as preventing the playoff everyone wants were very calculated, and are a large part of what has accelerated the current "plus one" talk because it made the Big Ten and Pac Ten react:
Some of the current "plus ones" being discussed are very intriguing, especially the one that the commissioners basically plagiarized from Stuart Mandel.Originally Posted by DeLoss Dodds
(Edited -- I don't know how to remove the "Originally Posted By" on the Dodds quote, but we'll just pretend he posted here).
I do think the Athletic Directors (although *NOT* the boards of trustees/regents/jesters) truly worry about the non-revenue sports. It's their job. If you really want to dig into the whole A&M/SEC history, A&M's athletic director did not want to go, but he was effectively neutered by the board of regents.
Will ODU have a press confernece today as well ?
Is the CAA, "DEAD MAN WALKING" ?
IF ODU is gone, VCU and George Mason have to be giving the A-10 a HARD look ( Yes , these two are simi recent final four teams, the A 10 has none ).
James Madison ,of the CAA, is talking about the MAC.
App St and Ga Southern might be Sun Belt soon.
Will the SoCon push hard to replace App State with W&M of the CAA and Richmond for football / UNCW of the CAA for other sports.
If the CAA isn't dead, it's close It's traditional Va/midAtlantic core ( Madison, Mason, VCU, ODU UNCW ) would be completely wiped out - and instead become a northeastern conference like the old American East maybe ?
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---Over the Rhine
Please, don't get carried away by internet rumors ...
For instance, there is ZERO chance that the ACC loses a team to the Big 12.
If the SEC came calling -- which is very unlikely -- there are a couple of ACC schools that would be interested. If the Big 10 came after Maryland (as many Terps dream), that financially strapped school would be very interested.
In both cases, it would make financial sense to make the jump to a more lucrative league. But the Big 12 is at almost the same financial level as the ACC -- it's worse actually, because revenues in that conference aren't split evenly (Texas in a monster with a far larger income than anybody else). Teams are looking to get OUT of the Big 12 (as Texas A&M and Missouri did) and not get in.
The ACC's next expansion depends entirely on Notre Dame. I suspect (but don't know) that the Big 10 is in the same situation. Until and unless the Irish make up theiy mind, the ACC will wait at 14. If Notre Dame comes, then they'll add one more Big East school to the mix (I'm guessing -- and that's all it is -- UConn or Rutgers). If Notre Dame chooses the Big 10, then the ACC will take two new teams, almost certainly from the Big East. If Notre Dame decides to stay an independent, then the ACC will stay at 14 for the forseeable future (there's no real advantage to going from 14 to 16 unless the new teams add real value).
And a couple of final points -- every summer, people post about the ACC going after Penn State. Ain't going to happen -- no team is going to leave the Big 10 for the ACC.
And somebody always suggests that the ACC should take Notre Dame as a non-football playing member. Again, that ain't going to happen. The ACC is absolutely committed to being an all=-sports conference. Besides, the best model we have for a major conference NOT being an all-sports conference is the disfunctional (and financially unrewarding) Big East. The ACC ain't copying their model.
But the new playoff system that is being bandied about, where the participants will earn more money for their conferences, is a real problem for the ACC. If you look back at the BCS era/error, if the systems currently being discussed were in place, the ACC would have placed exactly 4 teams in the Plus One playoff (not counting pre-expansion Miami and VaTech). 3 of those were FSU in the first 3 years. Now, the logic of FSU and Clemson leaving for these reasons is short-sighted, no doubt. But a similar stretch of the ACC not placing anyone in the new Plus-One system is going to be problematic for the conference.
I don't know about Clemson, but FSU's finances are shockingly in dire straits, much like A&M's were, relying on donations to run day to day operations. If Florida St. thinks it can borrow against the future by joining a more successful football conference, betting on more money in the long run, along with the freedom to develop their own third tier media, I get their logic. I think it is flawed and short-sighted, but it wouldn't be dissimilar to A&M's reasoning last summer.
So, I doubt any of this happens. I do think the next domino to fall is Louisville to the Big XII (gag) and Notre Dame deciding where to park its non-football sports. But if traditional football powers in the ACC get spooked by the new playoff system, I would not be shocked at all to see some movement out of that.
Big12: $250 million
ACC: $210 million
That's a difference of $4 million per year, which is chump change in the realignment conversation (but maybe not for FSU, especially as they try to keep pace with Florida.)
Here are the last 10 years, if you apply the playoff math backwards:
Big12: $375 million
ACC: $125 million
When the ACC made their move, they added two basketball schools (with decent football tradition), but won't get into any BCS/playoff games anytime soon. If you are FSU, you have to at least listen, right?
Also, fwiw, Louisville to the Big12 will not be the next domino. They have been begging for months, so the Big12 knows they can grab them at anytime. They just know that there might be bigger fish out there (FSU? Clemson? BYU? Notre Dame?)
As far as no schools looking to get into the Big12, you might want to tell Louisville and Cincinnati, and there are varying reports that BYU was almost a done deal.
Yes the CUSA MWC merger is on pause because CUSA wants the almost 25 million in exit fees from UCF, USF, SMU, and Houston. Then again I dont think it will happen at all as when the Big East becomes an epic fail those 4 teams plus Temple will probably be coming back to CUSA. CUSA is looking to go to 18-20 team conference. Those 5 plus the current 13 make 18. I could see Georgia State and MTSU added in same time frame to make 20. I could see ODU and/or possible App State in all this with UTEP and possibly another Texas team going to the Mountain west. I really dont see the need for a 36 team conference so the merger may not happen after all this happens.
I definitely see where all is is waiting on ND. Louisville is begging to get into the Big 12. My Pirates are begging to get in anywhere. I wish the Big 10/11/12 would add Maryland. Get those garbage fans out of the ACC. The fans from WV kept them out of the SEC. The ACC needs to also get rid of BC. They were a good add when they had Matt Ryan and a decent BBall team. Now they bring nothing to the conference.
If the ACC dumped BC and MD, they would never get ND.
"...Man, who even now finds scarce breathing room on this vast globe, cannot retire from the Old World to some yet undiscovered continent, and wait for the slow action of such causes to replace, by a new creation, the Eden he has wasted".
-George Perkins Marsh (1864)