NBA Draft Busts

[ncexnyc]

Sam Bowie gets such a bad rap because Jordan went after him. While it may have been smarter to take Jordan with the #2 pick (Olajuwon went #1), that does not make Bowie a bust of a pick.

Sam averaged double-digit points in 6 of his first 7 seasons, hardly a bust. He was a pretty solid rebounder too, generally grabbing more than 8 boards per game. He was a very effective shot-blocker too.

The biggest problem was that he kept on getting injured. He was not a great player, but was a solid NBA starter for most of his career -- a career that kept on getting derailed by injuries.

-Jason "poor Sam, he unfairly gets a bad rap" Evans

Every year around this time, just prior to the draft there will always be polls, blogs, and articles talking about the biggest busts in the history of the NBA. It's very unfortunate that a class act such as Sam Bowie gets labelled as a bust. As you've pointed out, while healthy Sam was a solid NBA player. Unfortunately for him his body betrayed him and he just happened to get drafted in a class that featured several HOF players and possibly the greatest of all time.

[darjum]

Are we ready to label Oden as a bust yet? When healthy he was reasonably productive...when healthy. Is a bust someone who is healthy but couldn't produce relative to their draft position, Kwame, Darko; or do we include players like Bowie & Oden who were/are often injured but can play?

I say if you're not healthy you're not a bust. But Portland fans will find little solace in my opinion.

[yancem]

Instead of just focusing on the worst picks of all time, why don't we also talk about some of the best picks of all time? I'm sure that there are other (and possibly better) examples but I would have to think that Boozer would be on any list. He was a second round pick who has been an all-star and won a gold metal.

Just thought I would broaden the topic a little!

[epoulsen]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...istory/page/51

This is an interesting list, I disagree with most of their picks though. It appears that their definition of "over hyped" really means "didn't win a championship", which is clearly not the same thing. Among the local notables on the list are Elton Brand, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier and Vince Carter.

[ThePublisher]

Kyrie Irving! Not hardly...

Most recently... greg oden. Maybe if he wasn't a walking, or should I say hobbling, injury.

[JasonEvans]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/5...istory/page/51

This is an interesting list, I disagree with most of their picks though. It appears that their definition of "over hyped" really means "didn't win a championship", which is clearly not the same thing. Among the local notables on the list are Elton Brand, Christian Laettner, Shane Battier and Vince Carter.

There really should be a ban on links to Bleacher Report articles. Sigh.

The author of that list knows little about basketball. He cracks me up when he talks about Elton Brand being one of the most overrated players in basketball by saying, "If he doesn't watch out, he could become the next Karl Malone."

Ummm, Karl Malone is one of the 3-5 best PFs in NBA history. Duuuh!

-Jason "seriously, Bleacher Report is like barely one step above posting on a bulletin board " Evans

[JasonEvans]

There really should be a ban on links to Bleacher Report articles. Sigh.

The author of that list knows little about basketball. He cracks me up when he talks about Elton Brand being one of the most overrated players in basketball by saying, "If he doesn't watch out, he could become the next Karl Malone."

Ummm, Karl Malone is one of the 3-5 best PFs in NBA history. Duuuh!

-Jason "seriously, Bleacher Report is like barely one step above posting on a bulletin board " Evans

Ohmygod... I just finished the list. Among the most overrated players in NBA history he cites Patrick Ewing, Lebron James, Karl Malone, and Kevin McHale.

I am really worried that some of the stupid that infects that article has worn off on me as a result of me reading it. Seriously, I very well may be dumber because I read that list!! How dare you do that to me!!!?! I am already dumb enough without having to add that mindless list to my short-term (very short-term, I hope) memory!!

Wow... just horrible.

-Jason "serves me right for clicking on a Bleacher Report link" Evans

[epoulsen]

There really should be a ban on links to Bleacher Report articles. Sigh.

The author of that list knows little about basketball. He cracks me up when he talks about Elton Brand being one of the most overrated players in basketball by saying, "If he doesn't watch out, he could become the next Karl Malone."

Ummm, Karl Malone is one of the 3-5 best PFs in NBA history. Duuuh!

-Jason "seriously, Bleacher Report is like barely one step above posting on a bulletin board " Evans

I'll do my best to not post anymore links from them haha. Now that you mention it I don't think I've ever gleaned any useful information from that site. I guess I'll just use them from now on to boost my basketball IQ ego.

[brevity]

This kind of thing is so subjective, and is further complicated because you can define a draft bust in at least 3 ways:

1. Bad Breaks: A person who was picked high and seemed like an okay/good idea at the time, but was a non-presence in the league, due to injury, overdose, disciplinary issues, whatever. High risk and zero (or close to zero) return.

2. Bad in Hindsight: A person who was picked high and seemed like an okay/good idea at the time, but was never the star that he should have been, and whose failure is amplified by the now-megastars who were drafted after him that same night. High(er) risk and low(er) return, due to inevitable comparison.

3. Bad Idea: A person who was picked high for no logical reason, and who was disappointing enough to prove the critics right. Dumb risk, period.

This thread is quickly illustrating the uselessness of trying to compare, say, one kind of 2nd overall pick bust (Jay Williams) from another (Sam Bowie). I greatly appreciate those respondents who pointed out that some so-called flameouts didn't really flame out at all, but were just not star material.

What makes a good list is well-defined criteria. Sticking to one of the above categories (or thinking of another, better way to separate the masses) could make an informative contribution to this sports debate. Possible talking points:

Is this really the weakest draft crop in memory?
What are the worst 1st round draft picks in Atlanta Hawks history?
In retrospect, what's the most lopsided trade in draft night history?
Who is the dumbest NBA general manager (or draft decision maker) ever?
Why is talking about NFL Busts amusing, while NBA Busts are kinda depressing?

[Starter]

Some decent points by Brevity in there; obviously, there are multiple ways to define the amorphous NBA Draft bust. That said, I don't think it's all that necessary to define the criteria used to discern who we consider a bust. Of course, personally, I would tend to discount luck -- Bias, Jason Williams, Hurley, even Oden, I can't consider them busts given that it was simply bad fortune they weren't legitimate factors in the NBA worthy of their draft status. I can't blame a franchise for not using a crystal ball and seeing a horrible accident or personal tragedy coming. Personally, though, I do consider opportunity cost to be important when considering the concept of a "bust." The examples I cited of underwhelming lumberers, Kleine/Koncak/et. al -- are made even worse when considering Mullin and Malone right after them. It's just, think of how these franchises would have changed indelibly and over the long term if they had one of the best power forwards or shooters ever instead of a useless lumberer, if they had only recognized the talent in front of them. In that respect, I would call the Knicks' ridiculous pick of Renaldo Balkman at No. 20 in 2006 -- which I had the honor of being there for -- a bust despite coming nowhere near the top 5, considering that Rajon Rondo went one pick later.

(Note: I do realize it's "easier said than done" when identifying NBA talent, and I'm no scout myself. That said, I can't remember anyone who thought Olowokandi was a good idea, and I'd have to think -- have to! -- that if you watched Karl Malone and Chris Mullin play in college and work out pre-draft, that you'd know they were totally awesome.)

[COYS]

(Note: I do realize it's "easier said than done" when identifying NBA talent, and I'm no scout myself. That said, I can't remember anyone who thought Olowokandi was a good idea, and I'd have to think -- have to! -- that if you watched Karl Malone and Chris Mullin play in college and work out pre-draft, that you'd know they were totally awesome.)

I think your last point is particularly valid. If everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, thinks someone is really good and they don't pan out, you can't fault the team for drafting them. This goes for injury guys (J-Will, Oden, etc.) as well as people who ended up being less impressive than projected by pretty much every scout. The irony with the Darko situation is that the Piston both got a bona-fide bust (there's no way to dispute that taking a risk on Darko was a pretty big gamble in light of the talent available). However, they also got a championship that may or may not have happened if they drafted Wade, Anthony, or Bosh. There's no way to know how their roster would've been constructed in 2004 with one of those three, but there's a good chance they don't get Rasheed Wallace if they go with Bosh or Anthony (the two higher rated prospects at the time). How does Wade fit in with Rip? If the Hawks could be guilty of one of the biggest draft busts of all time (ATL goes for quantity rather than quality of busts) AND win the championship the very next season, even if it meant they would miss out on the chance at future championships for the next 10 years, give me the bird in hand! Besides, the Pistons were really close to snatching the 2005 title away from the Spurs. If Game 7 of the 2005 finals tilts Detroit's way, Darko over Wade/Bosh/Anthony would be a footnote. If you flub a draft pick but do a great job constructing the overall team anyway, the player you drafted might be a bust, but it was a big win for the team.

[tommy]

Note: I do realize it's "easier said than done" when identifying NBA talent, and I'm no scout myself. That said, I can't remember anyone who thought Olowokandi was a good idea . . .

Not true. There was a very active debate at the time as to who the Clippers should take: Olowokandi or Bibby. There were knowledgeable and respected basketball people on both sides of that one. With the benefit of hindsight, the decision should've been obvious. (Actually, with the benefit of hindsight, they would've chosen a Hall of Famer like Dirk Nowitzki or Paul Pierce, or maybe even Vince Carter.) But of course, even between the two guys that just about everyone had 1 and 2, the Clippers being the Clippers, they chose wrong.

[Rudy]

To me, to qualify as a bust the pick should be a mistake by the team which drafted him, i.e. a misjudgment about his talent, work ethic or character. Bias wasn't a mistake. Oden might have been a mistake because there were thoughts before the draft that his legs were older than his chronological age.

[Starter]

Not true. There was a very active debate at the time as to who the Clippers should take: Olowokandi or Bibby. There were knowledgeable and respected basketball people on both sides of that one. With the benefit of hindsight, the decision should've been obvious. (Actually, with the benefit of hindsight, they would've chosen a Hall of Famer like Dirk Nowitzki or Paul Pierce, or maybe even Vince Carter.) But of course, even between the two guys that just about everyone had 1 and 2, the Clippers being the Clippers, they chose wrong.

Yeah, check that, I guess I'd imagine there were. I mean, I hated the guy -- not personally -- but you can find draftniks willing to back nearly any player. When you read a mock draft, do they ever actually kill a guy in there? Even the ones with shakiest games have "potential." Still though, I would tend to think that even without the benefit of hindsight, in such a loaded draft, you can make the right choice there. I'm sure there was a debate back then, because people didn't know what they were doing. I mean, Pierce fell to No. 10. Who among us -- even on draft night, without the benefit of hindsight -- didn't think he'd make nine teams feel very foolish? NBA teams were more into potential and obviously had not yet learned their lesson about drafting solely for size at that point. That said, I know Olowokandi had the one monster year at Pacific, and lord knows he had the pedigree. ... Wasn't he a croquet player in England before coming here, or something like that? Those usually become excellent NBA basketball players.

It probably helped him in a couple of ways to play in the Big West; at 7-foot-1 he put up ridiculous numbers, and probably nobody really watched him play a whole lot. I'll admit, I hadn't seen him play one time before that draft, I just knew he was tall and from a small conference. Then I watched him play in the NBA and it was laughable -- at least compared to what they could have had. He did have a couple of serviceable seasons stats-wise, though it took a few years to get there and didn't last long.

Is it hindsight in this case? You'd have to take my word that it's not, or you don't, either way. I remember watching the draft with friends and thinking it was an absolute joke of a pick. I had just watched Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison live and in person, and figured they'd both be stars. Bibby seemed a no-brainer NBA point guard; he was being compared to Jason Kidd back then. I loved Pierce. (I admit to knowing next to nothing about Nowitzki.) Of course, I also bought into everyone's hype that Kwame Brown had the potential to be the next Garnett. To rehash a tired meme, the draft is most certainly a crapshoot. But when you pass on Carter, Jamison and Pierce -- and even Bibby -- your'e not doing it right, even without a time machine or whatever.

[Starter]

I'd love to see some of those old pre-draft reports on Olowokandi, by the way, if anyone knows how to turn any up. I think they'd be insightful as to teams' thinkings in terms of putting extra weight on workouts, etc. They'd probably also be really funny -- in hindsight, of course.

Edit: Here's a start, from Sports Illustrated. Pete Newell among others, was sold on him. Interesting stuff -- he profiles as the classic workout warrior.

[NSDukeFan]

Yeah, check that, I guess I'd imagine there were. I mean, I hated the guy -- not personally -- but you can find draftniks willing to back nearly any player. When you read a mock draft, do they ever actually kill a guy in there? Even the ones with shakiest games have "potential." Still though, I would tend to think that even without the benefit of hindsight, in such a loaded draft, you can make the right choice there. I'm sure there was a debate back then, because people didn't know what they were doing. I mean, Pierce fell to No. 10. Who among us -- even on draft night, without the benefit of hindsight -- didn't think he'd make nine teams feel very foolish? NBA teams were more into potential and obviously had not yet learned their lesson about drafting solely for size at that point. That said, I know Olowokandi had the one monster year at Pacific, and lord knows he had the pedigree. ... Wasn't he a croquet player in England before coming here, or something like that? Those usually become excellent NBA basketball players.

It probably helped him in a couple of ways to play in the Big West; at 7-foot-1 he put up ridiculous numbers, and probably nobody really watched him play a whole lot. I'll admit, I hadn't seen him play one time before that draft, I just knew he was tall and from a small conference. Then I watched him play in the NBA and it was laughable -- at least compared to what they could have had. He did have a couple of serviceable seasons stats-wise, though it took a few years to get there and didn't last long.

Is it hindsight in this case? You'd have to take my word that it's not, or you don't, either way. I remember watching the draft with friends and thinking it was an absolute joke of a pick. I had just watched Vince Carter and Antawn Jamison live and in person, and figured they'd both be stars. Bibby seemed a no-brainer NBA point guard; he was being compared to Jason Kidd back then. I loved Pierce. (I admit to knowing next to nothing about Nowitzki.) Of course, I also bought into everyone's hype that Kwame Brown had the potential to be the next Garnett. To rehash a tired meme, the draft is most certainly a crapshoot. But when you pass on Carter, Jamison and Pierce -- and even Bibby -- your'e not doing it right, even without a time machine or whatever.

My recollection (may not be the best) was that Olowokandi was seen as a legitimate choice for #1 overall. Like you, I had never seen him play and I hadn't even heard of him until the lead up to the draft, where I was surprised that someone I hadn't heard of could be #1. If I remember correctly, Pierce fell do to some injury concerns or something other than his playing ability, which would have warranted a much higher pick. I also seem to recall Olowokandi being spectacular in workouts and after the success that previously unknown Pippen was having in the pros, that may have helped the Kandi man. Dirk Nowitzki looks like the obvious choice now, but he certainly was not at the time, as far as I remember. I agree that Carter, Jamison and Pierce (and LaFrentz) were the more proven commodities at the time, but as we all know (especially when thinking about where Nolan and Kyle seem to be projected) the pros draft on potential and potential is not always realized.

[monkey]

I'm amazed the name Shawn Bradley hasn't come up yet. #2 overall pick. 7'6" and supposedly a three point shooter. He averaged just ove 8 ppg for his career to go with a mere 6.3 rpg (and notably, in not one season did he average even 9 boards a game, this from a guy who is 7'6"). 45.7% career FG from the field is acceptable as a guard - he was a center (and the 3's he could allegedly shoot? Hit four for his career - out of 39 attempts - slightly over 10%).

Ok being 7'6" he stuck around the league for a while (over 10 years). But he was never any good.

He was picked immediately before Penny Hardaway, Jamal Mashburn, Isiaih Rider. Vin Baker and Allan Houston got picked a little later, with Sam Cassell later in the round.

[JasonEvans]

You want a bust, look at the entire 2000 draft. It is full of bad or, at best, mediocre players. I mean, here are the first 13 picks--

1. Kenyon Martin - a decent NBA player, but not nearly what you normally get from a #1 pick
2. Stromile Swift - yup, he was the #2 pick in the draft
3. Darius Miles - actually started out pretty well as a rookie, but never seemed to get much better
4. Marcus Fizer - lasted just 6 seasons in the league
5. Mike Miller - a decent player, but not with the #5 pick
6. Derrmarr Johnson - the Hawks again squander a high draft pick on a worthless player
7. Chris Mihm - A career role player, with the #7 pick in the draft
8. Jamal Crawford - easily the best pick so far, NBA 6th man of the year once and a great pure scorer
9. Joel Przybilla - career scoring average, 4.0 ppg
10. Keyon Dooliing - a career backup player
11. Jerome Moiso - lasted just 5 seasons in the league, never played much
12. Etan Thomas - a career 5 ppg scorer
13. Courtney Alexander - a mega-scorer in college, lasted less than 5 years in the NBA
14. Mateen Cleaves - won an NCAA championship, barely played in the NBA
15. Jason Collier - 5 NBA seasons and then he was done

--Jason "the best player in that draft -- Michael Redd, who went in the middle opf the 2nd round" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

Marcus Fizer - lasted just 6 seasons in the league.

Just to be fair...I would think that 6 years in the NBA is pretty decent. Sure, you would hope that your top draft pick would last over a decade, but given that we are discussing so many "busts" obviously that career length isn't too common. In fact, the average career of an NBA player is less than 5 years.

The average NBA player at the start of the 2010-11 season was 26.77 years old and had 4.84 years of NBA experience.

http://rpiratings.com/NBA.html
By the way, check out the opening sentence of that article, it's fun!

[Starter]

Just to be fair...I would think that 6 years in the NBA is pretty decent. Sure, you would hope that your top draft pick would last over a decade, but given that we are discussing so many "busts" obviously that career length isn't too common. In fact, the average career of an NBA player is less than 5 years.

http://rpiratings.com/NBA.html
By the way, check out the opening sentence of that article, it's fun!

Man, that 2000 draft was a disaster. Fizer's rookie deal spanned four years, so he had at least that as a head start. The more egregious part of the Fizer pick is that the Bulls already had Elton Brand, but as Jason laid out, there weren't very many options. Crawford was one, but they ended up with him anyway. Mike Miller, I guess?

Off-topic, if this is of interest, I wrote something on the Fizer pick last year. I actually ran into Elton Brand that day, and he was not happy.