2014 Basketball Recruiting thread

[FerryFor50]

By "these gems" you mean one person's question and another person's response, correct? My recollection is that Tokoto was a wunderkind whose performance cratered later in high school, and that Duke had serious interest in him very early but did not make a real play for him once his recruitment developed, possibly because he indicated that he wasn't interested. Again, were we in his finalists when he made his decision? Were we thought to be a genuine possible destination for him at the point that he selected his college?

Tokoto was a bust even in high school.

By gems I mean hyperbole over a recruit that hasn't played a minute of college ball. Tokoto is a prime example *because* of how bad he cratered, even in high school.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Tyler Adams actually committed to Duke, iirc.

And the sky fell at DBR when he decommitted and committed to Georgetown. I still think we're doing alright.

[FerryFor50]

And the sky fell at DBR when he decommitted and committed to Georgetown. I still think we're doing alright.

No, I meant Tyler Lewis, as he was on the radar early but then nothing came of it. Recruiting is a very fluid and inexact science that I refuse to let myself get worked up over.

[Henderson]

"Failure" is a harsh word, but it would be hard to argue the truth of it in that case.

Yes, it would be a huge disappointment not to get Okajones. Huge. Justise miss on top of that? Sure, not good. There I said it. But most of us are thinking it.

Would we be "fine?" with our 2014-15 class? Sure. Look at the last 30 years and ask that question. I'm not sure K thinks "fine" is the standard to which we aspire though.

We'll always be fine, and that sets a floor from which we springboard.

We don't "need," in part because our coaches and players have a broader definition of "success." But we definitely want. Badly. And those are a few of the things that I hope Jahlil and Tyus and Justise and Reid see.

+++++++++++++

Prediction 1: We will like where we are this time next year.

Prediction 2: We will have three (not 5 but not 1) incoming recruits next year. Grayson +2.

[FerryFor50]

For the record, no one's saying not to be disappointed we missed on guys. I would have liked to get Looney or Travis. It didn't happen. Stinks, but who knows what happens from there? Who knows if it didn't happen because of other wheels in motion? Or because they truly were not good fits here?

It's the "WE HAVE TO GET THESE GUYS OR WE'RE DONE" mentality that doesn't really play well. K and Duke almost always find a way to have successful seasons. And you really can't win a national championship EVERY year.

[GGLC]

By gems I mean hyperbole over a recruit that hasn't played a minute of college ball. Tokoto is a prime example *because* of how bad he cratered, even in high school.

Then we're talking about different things.

I'm talking about losing multiple recruiting battles where we make a hard, sustained push to sign a recruit, end up in their final x choices (such that we've committed significant time and resources to them rather than knowing early on that the interest level isn't there and turning to other candidates), and come away emptyhanded.

This doesn't apply to Tyler Lewis (no sustained interest), it doesn't apply to JP Tokoto (stopped recruiting hard years before he graduated), and arguably it doesn't apply to Tony Parker (who was something akin to a Plan D for us that year).

You're talking about how highly ranked recruits can be overhyped and don't always help their teams win a national championship.

I agree with your observations, but they're orthogonal to mine.

[GGLC]

Yes, it would be a huge disappointment not to get Okajones. Huge. Justise miss on top of that? Sure, not good. There I said it. But most of us are thinking it.

Would we be "fine?" with our 2014-15 class? Sure. Look at the last 30 years and ask that question. I'm not sure K thinks "fine" is the standard to which we aspire though.

We'll always be fine, and that sets a floor from which we springboard.

We don't "need," in part because our coaches and players have a broader definition of "success." But we definitely want. Badly. And those are a few of the things that I hope Jahlil and Tyus and Justise and Reid see.

+++++++++++++

Prediction 1: We will like where we are this time next year.

Prediction 2: We will have three (not 5 but not 1) incoming recruits next year. Grayson +2.

And I cosign this entire post.

I think people may have missed the post where I said that if we sign any two of Okafor, Jones, Turner, and Winslow, I'd consider it a fantastic recruiting class -- and if we only sign one, it'll still be darn good.

[FerryFor50]

Then we're talking about different things.

I'm talking about losing multiple recruiting battles where we make a hard, sustained push to sign a recruit, end up in their final x choices (such that we've committed significant time and resources to them rather than knowing early on that the interest level isn't there and turning to other candidates), and come away emptyhanded.

This doesn't apply to Tyler Lewis (no sustained interest), it doesn't apply to JP Tokoto (stopped recruiting hard years before he graduated), and arguably it doesn't apply to Tony Parker (who was something akin to a Plan D for us that year).

You're talking about how highly ranked recruits can be overhyped and don't always help their teams win a national championship.

I agree with your observations, but they're orthogonal to mine.

Ok, then Harrison Barnes and Shabazz Muhammad.

Those guys fit in your description. And still, we're all still glad we lost out in the end.

[FerryFor50]

Ok, then Harrison Barnes and Shabazz Muhammad.

Those guys fit in your description. And still, we're all still glad we lost out in the end.

Heck there are guys I forgot we even recruited hard. Like Rodney Purvis.

[GGLC]

For the record, no one's saying not to be disappointed we missed on guys. I would have liked to get Looney or Travis. It didn't happen. Stinks, but who knows what happens from there? Who knows if it didn't happen because of other wheels in motion? Or because they truly were not good fits here?

It's the "WE HAVE TO GET THESE GUYS OR WE'RE DONE" mentality that doesn't really play well. K and Duke almost always find a way to have successful seasons. And you really can't win a national championship EVERY year.

With respect to the first underlined sentence, this entire conversation came about today because I inquired whether we would have other wheels in motion in the unfortunate event that we missed on both Okafor and Turner.

With respect to the second underlined sentence, I respectfully submit that you're mischaracterizing my posts.

With respect to the third underlined sentence, I was a junior during the 1994-95 season. I was almost literally front row center when Capel hit his shot. Forgive me my paranoia and my ingrained pessimism.

[freshmanjs]

Ok, then Harrison Barnes and Shabazz Muhammad.

Those guys fit in your description. And still, we're all still glad we lost out in the end.

John Wall.

[johnb]

Huh? Nobody has rejected us? Kevon Looney was recruited very hard by Duke for well over a year. He is a much higher-rated (for good reason) player than Reid Travis, and much higher than Grayson Allen for that matter as well. You can offer alternative definitions of the word "reject," but he chose UCLA over Duke and others, despite a very heavy and sustained effort by the Duke staff to get him to Durham.

You are simply incorrect if you think we "wouldn't have let him" sign a LOI at this time. The entire effort that the staff made was to get him to sign just such a letter. Even had he signed, there would still hav been enough room for Jones, Okafor, and Winslow should they all choose Duke. The one who would have been left out would've been Travis.

As of this fall, we have 3 schollys left (not 4 or 5). I don't think we would promise more than we can deliver, and we have no way of knowing whether our best guys will go pro.

Grayson is ranked at the level of a McDonald's All American and roughly alongside Okonoboh and Travis--the key issue for this thread is that he locked in very early. He's going to be terrific for us, but his ranking isn't particularly pertinent for the current discussion.

We're obviously waiting on Jones (espn 4) and Okafor (espn 1). Until they decide, that leaves 1 definite available scholarship. Did we prefer Looney (espn 11) and Okonoboh (21) to Turner (2), Winslow (14), and Travis (23)? Who knows? And who knows in regards to how K & Co. evaluated them in regards to talent, personality, academics, and interpersonal mix? We recruited Looney hard, but we've also recruited hard the rest of the guys. How can any of us know what our coaches are telling these players? Or, given that the 2 (and now maybe 3) guys we're discussing as "whiffs" seem to have chosen places at a second echelon of talent, it is potentially interesting to consider their comfort zone with the level of competition at Duke in regards to basketball (and, possibly, academics)?

OK, I'll quit getting into a back-and-forth, but I find it odd that we are getting so pessimistic about our recruiting, and, by extension, about the talent of our current players and about the judgment and recruiting skills of our coaches.

[FerryFor50]

John Wall.

That one was when I stopped putting so much stock into predictions. That one hurt...

[GGLC]

Ok, then Harrison Barnes and Shabazz Muhammad.

Those guys fit in your description. And still, we're all still glad we lost out in the end.

If Harrison Barnes had chosen Duke, we might well have another national title on the shelf. I dislike the guy intensely, but let's not pretend we were unadulteratedly better off without him.

(No argument from me on Muhammad.)

[FerryFor50]

If Harrison Barnes had chosen Duke, we might well have another national title on the shelf. I dislike the guy intensely, but let's not pretend we were unadulteratedly better off without him.

(No argument from me on Muhammad.)

Eh, we could debate that point ad nauseum. I mean, UNC didn't win one with him, either...

[GGLC]

That one was when I stopped putting so much stock into predictions. That one hurt...

Wall was never a good fit for Duke, and the stuff I read leading up to his decision indicated that we were never really a serious player for him. That decision actually didn't hurt that much for me.

[blUDAYvil]

For what it's worth, you can watch the Reid Travis decision live here:

http://kstp.com/livevideo/videoWindow.shtml?aID=1079

[freshmanjs]

That one was when I stopped putting so much stock into predictions. That one hurt...

that's why i don't get too fussed about this. that spring and into fall, we lost gerald henderson, ewil, missed on wall for that fall, and missed on barnes for the following fall. we had 3 guards on the roster. and we won it all. it's just very hard to know which of the gets and misses really matter.

[GGLC]

Eh, we could debate that point ad nauseum. I mean, UNC didn't win one with him, either...

UNC didn't have the rest of our roster.

[Bluedog]

At least Johnny D got one!

Edit: Well, apparently, he hasn't officially announced yet, but that's what reports are saying...should be official momentarily. Sorry if I jumped the gun.