2014 Basketball Recruiting thread

[Ichabod Drain]

Our front court so far consists of two centers that can't play PF, Okafor and Plumlee, and one undersized powerforward with no proven jump shot (Jefferson). Semi is a SF, as previously discussed. So we have a big need for Turner, actually, rather than being a luxury, if only to assure that we have two PFs on the roster. I think he will complete our roster and be a huge asset.

An undersized power forward who held his own at center last year.

[Skitzle]

But the reason that I keep thinking we're going to get lucky is that, more than anyone else, K can talk about how MT can come to Duke and not just compete with NC and KY but with some of the players he's coached, like KB, LJ, KD, and AS.

Amar'e Stoudemire??

[BD80]

Our front court so far consists of two centers that can't play PF, Okafor and Plumlee, and one undersized powerforward with no proven jump shot (Jefferson). ...

Amile is not undersized at the 4. Turner is that good that he would start ahead of Amile, particularly as he can be a stretch 4 that will give Big Jah more room in the post.

... SMU would be a really fun team next year if he went there ...

This could be the first time EVER that a Larry Brown coached team was called "fun"

[Kedsy]

Our front court so far consists of two centers that can't play PF, Okafor and Plumlee, and one undersized powerforward with no proven jump shot (Jefferson).

Amile is listed by Duke as 6'9". You think that's undersized? How many college PFs are taller than 6'9? (Answer: not many. In the ACC, the only team who started two players taller than 6'9 was Virginia Tech, and even the Hokies only did it for a few games.)

Semi is a SF, as previously discussed.

Also as previously discussed, Semi might be a SF in the pros, but he's a PF in college, and plenty big for the position. What college PF could push him around?

So we have a big need for Turner, actually, rather than being a luxury, if only to assure that we have two PFs on the roster. I think he will complete our roster and be a huge asset.

I agree with those who say Turner is a luxury rather than a need. It would be great to have him, but both Amile and Semi are physically capable of defending opposing PFs.

If Myles comes and is as good as advertised, he gets 30 or so.

Slight quibble. Freshman big men rarely get 30 mpg at Duke. A more reasonable estimate would be 20 to 25. Your other points hold, though. With Myles in the fold, it means a much smaller role for Amile and Semi.

SMU would be a really fun team next year if he went there (and Garrett and Romo were also at the game for his official visit), but the fan enthusiasm is partly generated by their shock at having a winning team. Aside from his tendency to jump around, the coach is 73, and SMU is likely to slump back into mediocrity as soon as he retires. He might go there if he wanted a raucous crowd close to home, but he wouldn't be joining a long tradition or one that is likely to have legs.

You think 18 year old kids really think about how good the team will be after they leave school? That would surprise me.

And even if kids do think about these things, in a way helping a school like SMU have an extraordinary season would give him more of a legacy. If SMU made the Final Four, SMU fans would talk about this team with reverence for approximately the next million or so years. Mustangs fans will go crazy every time Myles Turner walks down the street or into a restaurant, for the rest of his life. If he goes to Kansas or Duke and makes the Final Four, the fans will talk about it for a year or two before complaining about why they haven't been there again.

[Saratoga2]

There are 200 total minutes available, perhaps 80 minutes for a couple of interior players. If Myles comes and is as good as advertised, he gets 30 or so. That means less for some people, especially anyone who plays inside whose initials aren't JO.

The fact that K flew to Texas indicates that Myles is an elite talent AND that our incoming players enjoyed playing alongside him at these all star games (if he were a jerk or a bad teammate, I bet we would have tactfully backed away). Ya never know, but our chance of winning the championship increases with Myles, even if he leaves next year, and at this point in his career, K would make A LOT of trips to Texas for a couple of more championships.

It's hard to imagine MT would go to Texas, even if it is THE University of Texas and affords the occasional opportunity to play pick up with Durant. Texas is a football school with paltry attendance for most games--and never reaches the heights of the only Duke game Myles has seen in person. Here is the Texas school newspaper explaining why Turner would be a bad fit for their own school: http://www.dailytexanonline.com/spor...t-choose-texas

SMU would be a really fun team next year if he went there (and Garrett and Romo were also at the game for his official visit), but the fan enthusiasm is partly generated by their shock at having a winning team. Aside from his tendency to jump around, the coach is 73, and SMU is likely to slump back into mediocrity as soon as he retires. He might go there if he wanted a raucous crowd close to home, but he wouldn't be joining a long tradition or one that is likely to have legs.

OSU and Texas A&M don't strike me as great competition to us, but the fact that MT has put these rural/conservative campuses on his final list makes me worry that he'll go to a school that combines our fans, tradition, and talent with a flat, isolated location. And then both KS and KY would be incredibly deep on the front line.

But the reason that I keep thinking we're going to get lucky is that, more than anyone else, K can talk about how MT can come to Duke and not just compete with NC and KY but with some of the players he's coached, like KB, LJ, KD, and AS. The risk with Duke (and Kansas) is that if he doesn't really do well, he could lose a starting spot--which is really unlikely to happen at a place like OSU, SMU, or A&M. But I believe that he's conflicted, and--assuming he's not just blowing smoke--that puts us definitely in the running...

With 80 minutes available I suspect JO will get 25 just because it is a difficult position to play for big minutes. AJ can play a decent PF and will probably improve this year. Marshall can definitely fill in primarily at center. If Myles comes to Duke he will definitely Play and probably take 25 minutes as well leaving 30 to split between Marshall and Amile. Semi would get squeezed out, barring injury to the bigger guys. Nice problem for coach K to have.

[COYS]

An undersized power forward who held his own at center last year.

I'm in the camp that thinks that if the staff wants Myles, then I want him, too! That being said, I'm with you, Ichabod, in being pretty high on Amile. Amile's usage on offense wasn't that high, but he was extremely efficient. He has a knack for getting into good spots and getting good shots off. I did not disagree with the strategy of featuring Jabari in the post this year, however, I think we could have worked Amile in a little bit more, especially when he set up along the baseline against opposing zones.

Amile also played excellent defense for that stretch in the middle of the year when Duke was playing it's best all around basketball. He was one of the best rebounders in the conference. His primary weaknesses were a lack of bulk, which probably did limit him against some of the bigger centers we faced, and poor shooting outside of the basket area and at the free throw line. Offensively, I am slightly concerned that he might not fit well next to Jahlil, who needs space to operate inside. However, defensively I can't wait to see what Amile can do alongside Jahlil and Marshall. His long arms and quick feet are plenty capable of handling opposing stretch 4's. Meanwhile, without the need to guard the opposing center, he'll probably be fresher and more able to stick his arms in the passing lanes. I also think he'll improve his rotations (which were the best on the team for a stretch last year). If we get Myles, I am sure that Amile's role will be diminished, somewhat. Myles can stretch the floor and is a surefire NBA talent. Nevertheless, Amile will still play a big role on the team. In fact, if we are lucky enough to receive Myles' services, a PF/C combo of Amile and Myles would look really good when Jahlil is off the floor. I actually think that it is Marshall whose role would be most reduced by the presence of Myles.

[richardjackson199]

Maybe this has been covered before, but why are we going after this kid? It seems we have plenty of horses in the stable, and it's not like K has EVER lengthened his bench. In fact, the few times he has come close, it's almost as if the team performed worse down the stretch.

Next year, we'll have Okafor, Plumlee, Semi, Jefferson, amongst others.

I just don't understand why K keeps pursuing him, based on past experiences.

The answer is because landing Myles Turner would greatly improve our chances of winning a national championship next year. The one thing next year's team does not have is a player like Myles Turner.

We also don't have plenty of horses in the stable. We do have available scholarships and plenty of room at the 4 for a stud. Okafor, Plumlee, Jefferson, and Semi are 4 players for 2 very important positions 4/5. What position on the court is most likely to get in foul trouble? (especially by driving into them with new rule changes and flopping - see at Syracuse). We've never seen Okafor play in college, but have MP3 and Jefferson sometimes shown a propensity to get in foul trouble? Have we seen our power forwards play soft on defense recently to avoid picking up fouls? What position on the court is most likely to get hurt (hint - 5th metatarsal)? Which players most often need a breather after running up and down the court several times?

How many minutes did Semi play last year even given our dearth of power fowards last year? Myles Turner was not on our team last year cutting into his minutes. I would love to see Semi continue to develop, earn big minutes, and contribute to Duke's success. Next year he will be a sophomore, so he has time to do that. And he will.

With Turner, I believe there would be plenty of minutes next year for Okafor, Turner, MP3, and Jefferson. There would be plenty of minutes at the 3 for Sulaimon and Winslow. Sulaimon could also spend some time at the 1/2, leaving plenty of potential minutes at the 3/4 for Semi if he is ready to earn them.

I believe Duke is the perfect fit next year for a great kid and great player like Myles Turner. I believe Turner is also the perfect fit for Duke's team next year.

[richardjackson199]

I don't like Kentucky and I don't like Calipari. I've made that pretty clear. I believe Cal does what is best for Cal - period. In 2010 it worked for Cal to create this aura at Kentucky that he could get 5 guys in the first round.

Now that he has that aura and he's getting plenty of top flight recruits, it's better for him to keep his non-lottery guys at UK, so that he has a better chance to win it all. WCS and Dakari Johnson would have been first round picks this year. Next year there will likely be just an excessive ton of talent at their position in the NBA draft. Next year could have lots more guys taken ahead of them at their position, pushing them later into the draft or 2nd round. But Calipari meets with them and they decide to return. If it's really for their education, good for them. I'm cynical and dubious.

As for whether or not we should recruit Myles Turner (which I think is a no brainer and be ecstatic if we get him), like I said, I don't like Kentucky. I'd like to beat their team next year, and we'll need talented size and depth inside to do so:

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebaske...-to-be-massive

[johnb]

I'll be happy with Myles. I'll be happy without him. And I'll be happy not to devote time thinking about the college and career choices of guys I'm unlikely to ever meet.

But my question. Someone suggested that PF is the position most likely to lead to injuries. Is that true? I think we had some recent threads about the wisdom of going pro early (or maybe I just dreamt of those threads), but are there statistics available in regards to the actual risk of injuries during the course of a season based on position? I bet someone keeps track of such things. It seems to me that while they are commonplace in the NFL, they are less common in the NBA and fairly unusual in college. Obviously, we've had guys whose NBA careers were chopped by injuries (JayWill, Hurley, Scheyer, Zoubs) and others who would otherwise be spoken of in the same breath as Tim Duncan and Kobe (Hill), but those injuries tended to occur in the heavy pounding (or mean streets) of the NBA. Numbers?

[Kedsy]

The one thing next year's team does not have is a player like Myles Turner.

Wait, I thought the one thing next year's team doesn't have is a player like Kyle Singler? Or was it a player like Nolan Smith? It gets confusing when I read DBR too much.

We also don't have plenty of horses in the stable. We do have available scholarships and plenty of room at the 4 for a stud. Okafor, Plumlee, Jefferson, and Semi are 4 players for 2 very important positions 4/5. What position on the court is most likely to get in foul trouble? (especially by driving into them with new rule changes and flopping - see at Syracuse). We've never seen Okafor play in college, but have MP3 and Jefferson sometimes shown a propensity to get in foul trouble? Have we seen our power forwards play soft on defense recently to avoid picking up fouls? What position on the court is most likely to get hurt (hint - 5th metatarsal)? Which players most often need a breather after running up and down the court several times?

There's essentially a zero percent chance that five guys will get regular minutes at PF/C for Duke. You can argue Turner is a better option than Amile or Marshall or Semi, but suggesting we need him for depth at the position is not a winning argument.

How many minutes did Semi play last year even given our dearth of power fowards last year? Myles Turner was not on our team last year cutting into his minutes.

Last season Semi was a freshman who was 11th on the depth chart. Next season he'll be a sophomore who (without Turner) would probably be 8th on the depth chart but with Turner on the team would be 9th or 10th. Considering Coach K has never given regular minutes to the 9th guy on the depth chart, the math looks pretty simple that having Myles Turner would probably ruin Semi's chances of getting regular rotation minutes.

With Turner, I believe there would be plenty of minutes next year for Okafor, Turner, MP3, and Jefferson. There would be plenty of minutes at the 3 for Sulaimon and Winslow. Sulaimon could also spend some time at the 1/2, leaving plenty of potential minutes at the 3/4 for Semi if he is ready to earn them.

And I think (with Turner on the team) there aren't enough minutes in a game for all these guys to get "plenty of minutes," whether they play well enough to earn them or not.

[MCFinARL]

Wait, I thought the one thing next year's team doesn't have is a player like Kyle Singler? Or was it a player like Nolan Smith? It gets confusing when I read DBR too much.

They also don't have a player like me. And they never will, thank goodness.

[BD80]

... Someone suggested that PF is the position most likely to lead to injuries. ...

When going to the rim against McBob? Absolutely.

[Olympic Fan]

Once again, we get hung up on positions.

I mean, we actually have people arguing whether Semi is a 3 or a 4? Really?

Have any of you ever watched Duke basketball before? I've said it before and I'll say it again -- it's UNC where positions are important. It's UNC where Roy ruined his 2013 season by insisting on playing a traditional lineup until he went to three guards too late. Its UNC where Roy wasted John Henson's 2010 season by trying to play him at the 3 (Hmm, Henson was physically, much like Jefferson ... and Chase Jeter). I still remember Dean messing up the 1992 season because he was so determined to make Donald Williams a 1 that he refused to play him at 2 on a team that had just one other reliable shooter. Dean Smith INVENTED the 1-2-3-4-5 nomenclature ... K's entire career has been just the opposite. He'll play anybody at any position -- his entire focus is getting the best five-man combo and the best 7-8 man rotation that he can get, regardless of position.

You don't think Semi or Amile is a power forward? What about Grant Hill, who played the position in 1991 and a slender 6-8 freshman (or was Grant the SF and 6-5 Greg Koubek the PF)? Didn't UConn just win the national title with a guy who is even smaller than Amile ay PF (Daniels was listed as 6-8, 195 pounds).

Elton, Boozer and Shelden were all natural power forwards -- who spent their entire Duke careers playing "center". John Scheyer was a "2 guard" who played point on a national title team.

POSITIONS DON'T MATTER AT DUKE!!

Come on ... Duke does not NEED Myles Turner. He would be a nice addition, but there are 330-40 schools out there that would love to have the options that Duke will have at "power forward" next year -- starting with Jefferson. I'm sure you'll see Semi and Justise get major minutes at the position. Is Justise a bit undersized for the position? Yes ... but so was DeMarcus Nelson, who saw major minutes at "power forward" at 6-foot-3 in 2008.

Two more comments:

(1) Where is it written that Okafor and Plumlee can't play together ... I don't think we'll see it often, but it will happen.

(2) You're wasting your time obsessing over Turner ... he's not coming to Duke.

[Des Esseintes]

(2) You're wasting your time obsessing over Turner ... he's not coming to Duke.

Aaaaaand scene! Thank you, OF. This thread should have been closed months ago.

[FireOgilvie]

Why are people getting so hung up on Semi getting minutes? Also, DraftExpress said he was measured at 6'6.5" in shoes, so he's really 6'5". Stop saying he's a good size for a power forward; he's not! He is unquestionably a small power forward. Feel free to make a list of every PF of all top 25 basketball teams in the country.

Also, "Duke has no positions." Okay, and that's fine. But it's easier to refer to guys by the position on the other team (where they do have positions) that they will be defending, etc. Also, we still have to rebound. We still have to play defense against teams that will occasionally be loaded with big men (see KU, Kentucky, UNC, etc.). I'd rather have a guy like Turner in there than Semi for significant periods of time - Turner is 5+ inches taller (he's listed at 7'0" by ESPN, but that is probably an exaggeration, like most listed measurements). He's the number 2 recruit in his class. I feel like I shouldn't have to explain why that gives us an advantage. Someone should take a look at our worst seasons in the last 8-10 years or whatever - you notice that we play small and have guys out of position in those years. We had a drop off in rebounding. Someone mentioned DeMarcus Nelson - he's an awesome guy, but he's the classic example of an undersized guy playing out of position. He was also part of the first class in a long time that didn't get to a Final Four.

If you don't care about winning championships and are just a really big Semi Ojeleye fan, then just say that. I don't like it when guys transfer and I think Semi seems like a great guy. But, don't pretend that Turner doesn't give us an undeniably better chance at winning. If Turner is not good enough, Semi can still earn minutes and play over him and make you guys happy. There's a reason Coach K was in Texas! Unlikely or not, if he thought we had zero chance, he wouldn't have wasted his time.

[Dev11]

DeMarcus Nelson, who saw major minutes at "power forward" at 6-foot-3 in 2008.

It's funny because that height should probably also be in quotes.

[flyingdutchdevil]

It's funny because that height should probably also be in quotes.

Yup. All 6'1.5" of him.

[Kedsy]

Also, DraftExpress said he was measured at 6'6.5" in shoes, so he's really 6'5". Stop saying he's a good size for a power forward; he's not! He is unquestionably a small power forward. Feel free to make a list of every PF of all top 25 basketball teams in the country.

When they start playing barefoot, I'll worry about how tall he is without shoes. Most college power forwards are listed around 6'8". With shoes. Also, most of them shrink a half inch or more when measured by people like DraftExpress, which means Semi is maybe an inch shorter than the average power forward, and two inches shorter than the tallest PFs in the ACC last season. Big deal.

He's also unusually strong and has exceptional jumping ability. Do you really think there are more than a handful of PFs in all college basketball who could physically push Semi around? Or jump over him? Considering his strength and hops, he has sufficient size to play power forward in college. Stop saying he doesn't just because he doesn't have sufficient size to play power forward in the NBA.

[Ichabod Drain]

Why are people getting so hung up on Semi getting minutes? Also, DraftExpress said he was measured at 6'6.5" in shoes, so he's really 6'5". Stop saying he's a good size for a power forward; he's not! He is unquestionably a small power forward. Feel free to make a list of every PF of all top 25 basketball teams in the country.

Also, "Duke has no positions." Okay, and that's fine. But it's easier to refer to guys by the position on the other team (where they do have positions) that they will be defending, etc. Also, we still have to rebound. We still have to play defense against teams that will occasionally be loaded with big men (see KU, Kentucky, UNC, etc.). I'd rather have a guy like Turner in there than Semi for significant periods of time - Turner is 5+ inches taller (he's listed at 7'0" by ESPN, but that is probably an exaggeration, like most listed measurements). He's the number 2 recruit in his class. I feel like I shouldn't have to explain why that gives us an advantage. Someone should take a look at our worst seasons in the last 8-10 years or whatever - you notice that we play small and have guys out of position in those years. We had a drop off in rebounding. Someone mentioned DeMarcus Nelson - he's an awesome guy, but he's the classic example of an undersized guy playing out of position. He was also part of the first class in a long time that didn't get to a Final Four.

If you don't care about winning championships and are just a really big Semi Ojeleye fan, then just say that. I don't like it when guys transfer and I think Semi seems like a great guy. But, don't pretend that Turner doesn't give us an undeniably better chance at winning. If Turner is not good enough, Semi can still earn minutes and play over him and make you guys happy. There's a reason Coach K was in Texas! Unlikely or not, if he thought we had zero chance, he wouldn't have wasted his time.

Everyone's listed height is in shoes.. So if you take 1.5" away from him you have to take it away from everyone. Just saying.

[sagegrouse]

Also, "Duke has no positions." Okay, and that's fine. But it's easier to refer to guys by the position on the other team (where they do have positions) that they will be defending, etc.

Sophist, thou hast no rivals!