Is this the year (Duke and ACC Football, 2011-2012)?

[4decadedukie]

The intercollegiate basketball seasons are over, the frenetic pace recruiting has temporarily slowed, the NCAA Men's Lacrosse Tournament selections will be made tomorrow, Duke's Class of '12 graduates next weekend, and -- for once -- there appears to be no compelling news re college sports' NCAA, criminal or scholastic miscues. Therefore, might this be a good time to open the annual thread regarding Duke Football, as our program progresses toward greater competitiveness and stature?

Will this be the year that Duke earns bowl eligibility? Will our still-young team (especially our defense) mature and perform sufficiently to provide several ACC victories? My knowledge of these -- and similar -- subjects is scant, but I hope to be educated.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Will this be the year that Duke earns bowl eligibility?

Yes.

This thread should be moved to the EK Board.

[roywhite]

The intercollegiate basketball seasons are over, the frenetic pace recruiting has temporarily slowed, the NCAA Men's Lacrosse Tournament selections will be made tomorrow, Duke's Class of '12 graduates next weekend, and -- for once -- there appears to be no compelling news re college sports' NCAA, criminal or scholastic miscues. Therefore, might this be a good time to open the annual thread regarding Duke Football, as our program progresses toward greater competitiveness and stature?

Will this be the year that Duke earns bowl eligibility? Will our still-young team (especially our defense) mature and perform sufficiently to provide several ACC victories? My knowledge of these -- and similar -- subjects is scant, but I hope to be educated.

Don't think the class of '12 is quite ready to leave yet.

Yeah, I think it's mostly about the defense improving. QB Sean Renfree is on the verge of an outstanding season, All-ACC and getting looks on the national scene, IMO. And he's got some great offensive weapons at his disposal.

[PumpkinFunk]

I don't think it's this year, but next year. Our defense is too young, and our OL is too raw. Both of those areas need major improvement before we reach a bowl game. Our schedule is somewhat favorable this year, though.

[Duke of Nashville]

Yes.

This thread should be moved to the EK Board.

and we'll beat Stanford the second week of the season.

[OldPhiKap]

and we'll beat Stanford the second week of the season.

Shock the world, baby, shock the world.

Bring it, Devils!

[House G]

I don't think it's this year, but next year. Our defense is too young, and our OL is too raw. Both of those areas need major improvement before we reach a bowl game. Our schedule is somewhat favorable this year, though.

We may not be good enough to qualify for most bowls, but I am hopeful we might qualify for the Independence Bowl, which is tied to the ACC and Mountain West. Since the I-Bowl is in my home town, I would love to play host to the hordes of Duke fans that would travel to Shreveport, La. for a game on the day after Christmas.

http://independencebowl.org/

[weezie]

...I would love to play host to the hordes of Duke fans that would travel to Shreveport, La. for a game on the day after Christmas.

Yeah, hordes. The Housemaster G will have a huge throwdown for all the Blue Devil attendees, no doubt.

[Olympic Fan]

I don't think it's this year, but next year. Our defense is too young, and our OL is too raw. Both of those areas need major improvement before we reach a bowl game. Our schedule is somewhat favorable this year, though.

While you are absolutely right about our defense, I'm baffled by your comment about the "raw" offensive line.

Actually, Cutcliffe's work rebuilding the OL is one of his great accomplishments at Duke. It was a mess when he arrived. This year's line has four returning starters -- OT Kyle Hill is starting for the fourth straight year; C Brian Moore for the third straight year (albiet at a new position ... he's been a guard, but that's only because Bryan Morgan was here -- Moore is a natural center); OT Perry Simmons is starting for the second straight year -- hes a budding star; OG David Harding is (like Simmons) a redshirt sophomore. He started four games a year ago and played more than the guy who started the other seven. He's one of the highest-rated recruits Cut has landed at Duke. The one new starter is redshirt sophomore John Coleman, who has seen plenty of action.

And behind them -- actually pushing a couple of veterans -- are two HUGE redshirt freshmen, Laken Tomlinson (the top recruit of his class) and Tacoby Cofield. Behind them are Conor Irwin, a fourth-year junior, third-year soph Joey Finison and fifth-year senior Jon Needham.

The OL is excellent -- big, experienced and deep.

Unfortunately, the DL, indeed the entire defensive front seven, is a huge question mark. In fact, the prospects are so questionable that Cut has elected to play a 4-2-5 defense that emphasizes the one defensive strong point -- a group of very talented and experienced safeties. So we'll play three at a time in most circumstances.

Up front, our only proven linebacker -- sophomore Kelby Brown -- is coming off knee surgery. On the DL, senior NG Charlie Hatcher is solid, everyone else is a question mark. The success -- or failure -- of the defense will depend on a bunch of redshirt freshmen -- Cut has said that DE Jordan DeWalt-Ondijo is going to be a star ... DE Dez Johnson is just behind him. But NG Steven Ingram and DTs Nick Sink and Jamal Bruce need to be good too.

Everything else is in place for a bowl -- the offense is a top-half of the ACC offense. There's a reasonable chance that Renfree will be the best QB in the ACC, especially after he continues to play like he did late last season (he averaged 299 yards and a 71 percent completion rate in his last five games with two interceptions in 188 pass attempts). He's got great receivers, a solid offensive line and a deep pool of servicable, if not spectacular, running backs. Last year, the running game got a lot better ... if it can make just another small step forward (and it should with that line and those veteran backs), Duke's offense COULD be the best in the ACC or at least very near the top.

In addition, Duke has the best all-around kicker in the ACC in Will Snyderwine and a very serviceable punter in Alex King. Special teams are above-average.

So two of the three legs of our stool seem to be solid. Obviously, an inept defense can bring it all crashing down, but if that leg merely wobbles a little bit, we can go bowling.

I don't think the schedule is as favorable of you seem to think.

Richmond should be a win, but the last two times they came to Wade they beat us.

Florida International has 16 starters back from a bowl team, including their key offensive people. They didn't beat anybody great last season, still, they are solid and it's their place.

Stanford is going to be a top 10 team with Andrew Luck returning. It would be a great, signature win for the program to beat them in Wade, but it's a long shot.

Tulane is the one non-conference team that Duke should beat on paper.

In the ACC, Duke has beaten Virginia all three years under Cut, although they are getting better. Wake is going to be picked low in the ACC, but we haven't beaten them since Grobe took the job.

Right now, Duke will be an underdog against everybody else it plays in the ACC.

Getting to six wins ... that probably means winning three out of four outside the ACC, then going 3-5 in the league (something Cut did in 2009).

It's possble ... but 2012 seems more likely, when the defense is a year older and the offense doesn't lose a lot.

[Bob Green]

Duke football has improved by leaps and bounds since Coach Cutcliffe arrived. Twelve victories have been recorded in Cutcliffe's first three season compared to 13 victories in the nine seasons preceding his arrival. Cutcliffe's 12 victories includes five conference victories (Virginia, NC State, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia) and five road victories (Vanderbilt, Army, NC State, Virginia, Navy).

There is justification for optimism.

Offensively, we have the pieces in place to be a juggernaut. Averaging 30 points per game is a realistic possibility in 2011. Defensively, we are still a work in progress. We will probably need those 30 points week in and week out.

The offensive line has shown steady improvement and has four of five starters returning. That bodes well for protecting quarterback Sean Renfree and opening some holes for running backs Desmond Scott, Josh Snead and Juwon Thompson. Football games are won or lost in the trenches and Duke's offensive line is a strength going into the 2011 season.

Sean Renfree will be the starter at quarterback for the second consecutive season which should alleviate some of the early season jitters experienced in 2010. Renfree has the talent to compete for All Conference honors.

The receiving corps is arguably the best in the ACC with All Conference selectees Conner Vernon (2010) and Donovan Varner (2009) leading the way. Tight End Cooper Helfet was the team's fourth leading receiver last season and Brandon Braxton and Tyree Watkins have a year more experience and are ready to step into the starting line-up in place of departed senior Austin Kelly. Those five returning receivers combined for 188 receptions for 2,303 yards in 2010.

The challenge for the offense will be to cut down on turnovers (Renfree threw 17 interceptions last season) and achieve better balance re successfully run the ball.

Desmond Scott was the leading rusher last season gaining 530 yards on 120 carries. As a team, Duke averaged 110 ypg on the ground, which ranked 104 out of 120 FBS teams. This is an area where we must improve in 2011.

On defense, Duke attempted to play a 3-4 last season but was not successful as the defensive line was thin and a perceived strength at the linebacker position proved to be an illusion. The team switched back to the conventional 4-3 scheme and experimented with the 4-2-5.

The plan this season is to go with the 4-2-5 scheme in an attempt to stop the opponents running game and apply pressure on the quarterback. Much improvement is needed in these areas as Duke ranked 113th nationally in run defense and sacks last season.

For those interested in reading more on the defense, I highly recommend Al Featherston's recent article at GoDuke.com.

Moving to the schedule, if Duke is to achieve bowl eligibility in 2011, and that is the objective, road wins will be required as Duke plays tough opponents at home this season (Stanford, Florida State, Virginia Tech). Road games at Boston College, at Florida International, at Miami and at Virginia appear to be the best opportunities for Duke to secure road victories. Boston College (Fight Hunger Bowl), Florida International (Little Caesars Bowl) and Miami (Sun Bowl) were all bowl teams in 2010.

Of course, taking care of business at home against Richmond, Tulane, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech is equally important. Duke fans inevitable list the Wake Forest game as a probable win every year but the painful truth is we have lost 11 straight games to the Demon Deacons. Moreover, we have lost our last two games against Richmond.

Okay, I've rambled on long enough as I'm suppose to be outside weeding my flower gardens in the rain. It is raining because I live in Washington State and it is always raining here.

[4decadedukie]

Olympic and Bob -

Excellent, thoughtful posts, for which I thank you. I, too, suspect that next season is more likely for bowl participation, however ’11-‘12 is not entirely out of the question. Our defense is the significant, unanswered matter (IMHO). I suspect our turnover problem will decrease, in large part due to the offense’s experience and the lines ability to give our backfield (especially Renfree a little bit more time for careful execution and smart decision-making).

Overall, however, the key point is the continuous improvement in every relevant area (on and off the field) since Coach Cut arrived. WE SHALL GAT THERE and the remainder of the voyage will be more fun than the first years.

Warm regards.

[OldPhiKap]

The Stanford game should be a good measuring stick. Last year, the atmosphere for the Alabama game was great but the team was steamrolled and it took several games to recover. Now, we know what it means to have a national power coming to Wally Wade. How do we come out this time? I think we learned a lot from 'Bama and hopefully the players have a better idea of what they need to do.

Cut is familiar with having Florida, Georgia, Alabama, LSU, etc. rolling into town. For our kids, it's a new thing.

[Bob Green]

Here is another good Duke football article by Al Featherston:

http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.db...DB_OEM_ID=4200

We have finished last in the ACC in rushing the past two seasons averaging 63 ypg in 2009 and 110 ypg in 2010. Hopefully, we continue to improve and achieve 150 ypg in 2011.