Top boxoffice hits of Summer 2011 (new and revised!!)

[camion]

No the local theater is only 3.25 before five pm for 2D movies.3D movies are 5.75. after 5 they are7.75 i think.prices haven't changed much at that theater in 25 years or so.they went up a dollar when they changed location.also its free refills on popcorn and drink.its really a good deal.seats are a little small . its always packed.you have to get there early.http://events.postandcourier.com/sum...emark-movies-8

Wow! I haven't seen movie prices under $6.00 in a long time. You are in a time warp.

Now the big question, what will a medium popcorn and drink cost you?

[mr shadow 008]

There is a place here in Va Beach ( Norfolk actually) that is 4 dollars all week. Then during the weekends after 4 it is still only 6.50.

[wavedukefan70s]

Wow! I haven't seen movie prices under $6.00 in a long time. You are in a time warp.

Now the big question, what will a medium popcorn and drink cost you?

Around ten dollars or so for both.i get the large drink so i dont have to get up.the kids eat the large popcorn and take turns going to get a refill.

[Udaman]

I admit defeat. Hangover 2 had a pretty good Tuesday - pulling in $7.5M. It's almost certainly going to end up higher than Pirates and Kung Fu Panda...and appears to be a lock for the Top 5. Did not see that coming.

The reviews are still negative (rotten tomatoes and Yahoo user reviews), and a lot of people seemed to feel jipped by how repetitive it was - but there is enough demand to easily push this thing over $200M

[JasonEvans]

Wednesday update --

Hangover: Part II did another $6.2 million on Wednesday. It will pass the $150 mil mark today and seems poised to have about a $36-$40 mil weekend, which should put it just a shade south of $200 mil at the end of 2 weekends. It is showing some signs of weakening legs, but I think $240+ million is a virtual lock for this film.

The real story is that Kung Fu Panda 2 is not doing better in the mid-week numbers. As a child-centric flick, Panda was supposed to be a big draw mid-week with moms looking for something to entertain all the kids who are out of school (more than half of the nation's elementary and middle school children are on summer break at this point). But, Panda's mid-week numbers are well behind Hangover. It made $2.9 mil on Wednesday, just barely more than Pirates IV's $2.7 mil. Unless something strange happens and Panda develops incredibly strong legs, it is going to finish well behind both Pirates and Hangover. I think it has a real struggle to get to $200 million.

So, here is how "the standings" shape up through Wednesday of this week--

1. Fast Five - $198.3 mil (not in our contest, but I am tracking it anyway)
2. Pirates IV - $169.4 mil
3. Thor - $164.0 mil
4. Hangover II - $148.9 mil
5. Bridesmaids - $93.1 mil
6. Kung Fu Panda II - $73.1 mil

This weekend brings the incredibly well-reviewed X-Men: First Class. Seems likely to earn about $70 million. But if audiences embrace it and it has big word-of-mouth, it could show strong legs and be a real player in our contest. Still, with just a $70 mil opening, it is going to be tough to get to more than maybe $210 or $225 mil.

-Jason "Panda needs to do like $30 mil this weekend or it is likely toast" Evans

[dpslaw]

Jason, will you be seeing an early screening of Super 8?

[bjornolf]

Wednesday update --

The real story is that Kung Fu Panda 2 is not doing better in the mid-week numbers. As a child-centric flick, Panda was supposed to be a big draw mid-week with moms looking for something to entertain all the kids who are out of school (more than half of the nation's elementary and middle school children are on summer break at this point). But, Panda's mid-week numbers are well behind Hangover. It made $2.9 mil on Wednesday, just barely more than Pirates IV's $2.7 mil. Unless something strange happens and Panda develops incredibly strong legs, it is going to finish well behind both Pirates and Hangover. I think it has a real struggle to get to $200 million.

-Jason "Panda needs to do like $30 mil this weekend or it is likely toast" Evans

Of course, due to crazy snow days this year, most of the upper East coast, from Virginia up to Maine, have at least another week or two of school. This includes New York. That could give it a shot in the arm when they all get out.

[JasonEvans]

Jason, will you be seeing an early screening of Super 8?

Nope. I am headed to Universal and Disney in Orlando with the family for a week and wil not be around for screenings when Super 8 is screened.

The buzz is really good for it though. Harry Knowles of Ain't It Cool News said it reminded him of everything that was great about Spielberg's movies of the 70s and 80s. More and more people are saying it is ET with a much more scary alien.

I am surprised at the lack of commercials so far -- they are not marketing it well in the weeks leading up to release.

--Jason "I am guessing the opening weekend is only in the $40, or maybe $50 million range" Evans

[weezie]

Anybody have a personal review of "Midnight in Paris" yet?

[JasonEvans]

Hmmm -- not a good weekend so far for any of the contenders.

Early indications are that X-Men is going to do about $55-58 million, a smaller opening than Thor by a pretty significant amount. Even if it gets a very solid 3x multiple from opening to final boxoffice, we are only looking at a $150-$160 total boxoffice film. It would have to get a 4x multiplier to be a real player in our contest and that is asking a lot. That would mean it would have really long legs -- which is hard to do when you are a summer action film because other, newer action films tend to squeeze you out of theaters. In terms of our contest, I think X-Men: First Class is in real trouble.

Hangover: Part II looks like it is on course to about a $33-35 million weekend, a steep drop off of about 60%. You'd like to see a movie hold 50% of its audience each weekend the first few weeks. A 60% drop is worrisome. Of course, Hangover II did such huge business last weekend and then into the week ($19+ million from Tue-Thurs) that it is very reasonable to think that demand for the film has dropped steeply. Even only making low-30s this weekend, Hangover II is going to be in the upper 180s in terms of total boxoffice, which is a great total through 2 weekends. I still think $240+ million is very likely, but I am quite a bit more worried than I was a few days ago.

And what happened to the long legs on Kung Fu Panda II? Early estimates are that it will make about $23 mil this weekend at the boxoffice, which would be just under 50% of what it did a week ago. That's fine, but it is nothing too special. A really great number would have been for it to only drop off 45%. We know Cars 2 is going to crush Panda when it comes out on June 24th. Panda is starting to run out of time to be even a contender in our contest. I mean, it may not even cross the $100 million mark by the end of this weekend (or it will limp across). With only 2 weeks left until Cars 2 comes out, is there any way Panda gets to even $200 million?!?!

--Jason "FYI - I am going to be busy much of the coming week, so you won't see me around these parts as much as usual..." Evans

[-jk]

As Evans is out, I'll post this weekend's haul:

Listed as: movie, $MM weekend take (total take-to-date), weeks out

1. X-Men: First Class, $55 ($55), 1 week.
2. Hangover II, $31 ($186), 2 weeks.
3. Kung Fu Panda 2, $24 ($100), 2 weeks.
4. Pirates: Stranger Tides, $18 ($190), 3 weeks.
5. Bridesmaids $12 ($107), 4 weeks.
6. Thor, $4 ($169), 5 weeks.
7. Fast Five, $3 ($202), 6 weeks (but doesn't count)

Jason nailed X-Men and Panda, and overestimated Hangover by a bit. I'll leave the detailed analysis to others, but it looks to me like Hangover and Pirates will break $200MM, the Panda's taking it on the chin, and Thor's hammered.

-j "OK, I'm a loser: I've seen one, albeit rather good, movie in a theater in the last year, The King's Speech" k

[JasonEvans]

Guess who is back from vaca!

So, this weekend told us 2 things --

1) Super 8 is going to need huge, huge, huge legs to make the Top 5 of summer

2) X-Men may not have the long legs many had expected

Here are the preliminary weekend numbers:

1. Super 8 - $37 mil
2. X-Men: First Class - $25 mil (down 55% from opening weekend)
3. Hangover II - $18.5 mil (down 40% in weekend #3)
4. Kung Fu Panda 2 - $16.6 mil (down 30% in weekend #3)
5. Pirates 4 - $10.8 mil (down 40% in weekend #4)

I listed the weekend-to-weekend dropoff because that is how we see a film with long legs. Ideally, you want to see a film only drop about 50% from its opening weekend and then only drop about 35-40% in the following few weekends. The folks expecting X-Men to have really long legs have to be disappointed in a 55% drop, especially with Green Lantern opening next weekend siphoning off much of the superhero movie demand.

With an opening weekend of $37 million, Super 8 will need to have incredible legs to get to $200 million. It is good for a film to get 3x its opening weekend. $200 million would require Super 8 to have a 6x multiplier. Huuuuge mountain to climb and I don't even think $200 million will get a film into the Top 5 (probably more like $230 million).

Kung Fu Panda is starting to show some legs, which we would have expected from a family film, but Cars 2 comes out in 2 weeks and I think Panda just dug too big a hole for itself its opening weekend.

Anyway, here are the current standings:

1. Hangover II - $216.5 mil
2. Pirates 4 - $208.7 mil
3. Thor - $173.6 mil
4. Panda II - $126.9 mil
5. Bridesmaids - $123.9 mil
6. X-Men: First Class - $98.8 mil
7. Super 8 - $38 mil

-Jason "Hangover and Pirates are in the Top 5, IMO" Evans

[JasonEvans]

I saw screenings earlier this week of Green Lantern, Mr. Popper's Penguins, and Cars II.

Green Lantern - not as bad as some of the buzz and critics have made it out to be. These supernatural/space-based comic book hero films are a tough nut to crack for a mainstream audience. What works on the pages of a comic does not always work in live-action in a theater. The action and effects are enough to keep your attention throughout the film and Ryan Reynolds is always very likeable. The story is very predictable and does not really present any compelling turns or moments, but it is a decent enough film. It will make around $150 million, not enough to be in the Top 5.

Mr. Popper's Penguins - I think Jim Carey made so much money in the late 90s and early 2000s so that he only does what he wants and does not really care what anyone else thinks. That is the only explanation I can come up with for him looking at this script and thinking it would be a good movie. This is a very kid-centric film and was a bit of a yawner for an adult. There are some laughs but the story is designed so that a 6-year-old will understand it, which ain't a good thing if your IQ is higher than a 6 year-old's. I would be shocked if it made more than about $50 million at the boxoffice.

Cars II - Hands down, the worst Pixar film I have ever seen. The audience for this is kids under 8 and parents of those kids who will enjoy anything that makes thier child smile. Unlike virtually every other Pixar film, there is next to nothing here for adults. I cracked a smile maybe 2 or 3 times the entire film and I don't think I laughed out loud once. The story focuses more on Mater than on Lightning McQueen, which means half the jokes are about how ignorant he is to his surroundings. the other half of the jokes are about cars doing things humans would otherwise do. Aside from one scene with wasabi at a sushi station, none of it is funny. The plot is obvious and dull. I actually fell asleep for about ten minutes in the middle. I am stunned that Pixar made a blatant sequel/money-grab like this when they really did not have a compelling story to tell. Most Pixar films have something to say about the human condition, even though they tend to be about non-human main characters. This one has none of that. Lame, lame, lame. I am telling you, this was on par with Shark Tale or Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs in terms of quality. At least it removes any doubt as to which Pixar film is the worst ever... wow.

Still, the theater full of 3-8 year olds largely loved it. I thought the movie was a bit long (and dull) and some parents commented that their little kids had some trouble with the length. I still think it is a lock to make at least $200 million and probably much more. I will be interested in seeing if critics give it thumbs up as a film for kids only or if they criticize the lack of entertainment for adults.

--Jason "by the way, my latest WSJournal column on whether we are suffering from superhero burnout this summer, can be found here" Evans

[Blue in the Face]

Mr. Popper's Penguins - I think Jim Carey made so much money in the late 90s and early 2000s so that he only does what he wants and does not really care what anyone else thinks. That is the only explanation I can come up with for him looking at this script and thinking it would be a good movie.

Why would you think he thought this would be a good movie?

[BD80]

--Jason "by the way, my latest WSJournal column on whether we are suffering from superhero burnout this summer, can be found here" Evans

Burned out on MALE superheroes!

PC has gotten so outrageous that even the American movie industry is afraid to admit the truth: women look better in spandex than men!

[davekay1971]

Burned out on MALE superheroes!

PC has gotten so outrageous that even the American movie industry is afraid to admit the truth: women look better in spandex than men!

Actually, this brings up a very good question: given the undoubted sex appeal of superheroines in spandex and the inherently young male market targeted by the comic book genre, why aren't there more superheroine driven features? The only recent ones that comes to mind are Elektra and Catwoman, which were flops for many reasons that probably didn't involve how Jennifer Garner or Halle Berry looked in constume. They were both just bad, bad movies.

Superheroines, aside from Wonder Woman, have always taken a back seat to the men in the comics, and action movies featuring female leads haven't ever really managed to become box office bonanza (notable exception: Alien/Aliens). In 2011, are men not ready to buy into a superpowered babe kicking butt? I would like to think that a superheroine movie done with the budget and story/acting/directing quality of a Spiderman, Iron Man, or Nolan's 2 Batman features might be a breath of fresh air in the superhero genre and reap some box office rewards.

Give me a well done Black Widow feature with Scarlett Johannson in spandex and I'm there! Who's with me?

[JasonEvans]

Give me a well done Black Widow feature with Scarlett Johannson in spandex and I'm there! Who's with me?

(raises hand and waves it furiously)



DC is desperate to keep up with Marvel in the movie universe.

Batman is thriving though Nolan says Dark Knight Rises will be the last Batman film he will do and he does not want anyone else to pick up where he is leaving off (might he kill off Batman at the end of the film?). DC says they plan to reboot Batman after Nolan is done as part of a Justice League film (the JL includes Batman, Superman, Wonder Woman, Flash, and perhaps Green Lantern). They are rebooting Superman too and say they plan to launch The Flash some time soon and also want to get a Wonder Woman movie done. I think Wonder Woman is too valuable and recognizable a property for them not to make a movie, though it may take 3 -5 years to get to it.

-Jason "female heroes can be great -- Alien(s) is a perfect example" Evans

[JasonEvans]

Why would you think he thought this would be a good movie?

I don't think he planned to make a bad movie, do you?

I actually thought I Love You, Phillip Morris was a good movie. But the studio never got behind it to push it for release and they just sorta let it die. I think the overtly gay theme made them think America would not watch it. A pity.

-Jason "Popper actually did ok this weekend with $18 million, better than most boxoffice analysts had expected" Evans

[Duvall]

I don't think he planned to make a bad movie, do you?

What makes you think that he cared?

[JasonEvans]

Here is the news from the weekend--

1) Green Lantern got off to a good start on Friday but didn't do as well as expected on Saturday and Sunday. There are clear indications that word of mouth is pretty bad. boxoffice analysts had expected it to make about $57 million after the Friday opening numbers, but it ended up making $52.6 million. I think it will only make about $125-$135 million when it is done, which won't come close to the Top 5.

2) Super 8 had a strong second weekend, dropping only 40% (to make $21.2 million) a clear indication that it has strong word-of-mouth. If it had started better, that kind of long legs might make it a real contender for the Top 5, but it is yet to get to even $75 million in total boxoffice. It has a long, long way to go and a ton of competition still to face. I don't think it has a chance of making the Top 5.

3) X-Men: First Class was down 52% (to $11.5 million). So, despite very good reviews, it is clearly not showing the kind of legs it needs to get to the Top 5. We are dropping contenders left and right!

4) Kung Fu Panda was off 47% in its 4th weekend and seems to have been hurt by the appearance of Popper's Penguins as a viable family film alternative. That is bad news for this film as the competition gets even tougher with Cars II driving onto screens next weekend. I think we can pretty much stick a fork in Panda 2. It is at $143 million and won't get to $200 million... heck, it probably won't get to $175 million.

And here are the standings so far --

1. Hangover: Part II - $232.6 mill (Top 5 lock)
2. Pirates IV - $220.3 mill (probably top 5, but maybe our bubble boy)
3. Thor - $176.1 mill (only made $1 mill this week, it is all but done)
4. Panda 2 - $143.3 mill (probably won't even get to Thor's total)
5. Bridesmaids - $135.6 mill (incredible legs, won't make Top 5, but a real hit)
6. X-Men: First Class - $119.9 mill (not gonna make Top 5)
7. Super 8 - $72.7 mill (good legs, but too little too late, I think)
8. Green Lantern - $52.6 mill (fuhgetaboutit)

-Jason "I am loving my Top 5 picks of Hangover, Pirates, Cars II, Transformers, and Potter!" Evans